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2015 Off-season thread

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Annibal was arguably our best SP in 2013 and 2014. His demise is clearly overstated, if he is healthy. There is a very real chance that he will be our best SP in 2016. Although he seems unlikely to hit 200 innings.

Yah, this. I worry about his health, but he's been basically a 3.5 WAR pitcher for 5 years straight before last year.

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After the refinement of BP's catcher stats, they rank James McCann as the fourth worst player in baseball by WAR last year (-1.7).

Discuss.

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.....and the asking price will probably start with Fulmer or Norris.

I think they are free to ask for whatever they'd like, but I find it unlikely that they get such a return. They have very little leverage. First, there is still a ton of OF talent available as free agents, well beyond Cepsedes, Upton, Folwer and Davis (?). And secondly, they already signed Parra, and everyone knows that they have to trade an OF now.

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After the refinement of BP's catcher stats, they rank James McCann as the fourth worst player in baseball by WAR last year (-1.7).

Discuss.

I can't disagree with this.

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After the refinement of BP's catcher stats, they rank James McCann as the fourth worst player in baseball by WAR last year (-1.7).

Discuss.

I sure don't understand what all the fuss over him is about. Maybe his "grit"?

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After the refinement of BP's catcher stats, they rank James McCann as the fourth worst player in baseball by WAR last year (-1.7).

Discuss.

James McCann can't hit RHP and sucks.

But he'll be a a great player because he is a leader.

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After the refinement of BP's catcher stats, they rank James McCann as the fourth worst player in baseball by WAR last year (-1.7).

Discuss.

Letting Avila go was probably stupid.

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I guess the first thing to say in response to this post was that my response to your previous post was not intended to be a rebuttal but rather a continuation of a discussion by presenting the closest examples.

I did not include every boras free agent that signed for one year. I limited it to players that signed for at least 1/10.

"Premier" is an indefinite modifier so I thought it was more illustrative to err on the side of inclusion to further the discussion.

I don't know exactly what players "seek" and I tend to think it's difficult to attempt to know or predict that. Regardless, Edwin wasn't coming off a poor season when he signed the one year deal. I don't think the "strategy" of him taking a one year deal would be all that different than Davis. It's an option that becomes more attractive as the offseason progresses and teams have failed to offer the deal you think you deserve, which can be a result of a number of different factors. If a 29 year old can expect a 5 year deal, I think a 30 year old can expect s 4 year deal.

I don't think it's true that Chris Davis was a slam dunk to get a top AAV contract over multiple years. He's beyond the "peak" years and just two years ago had a poor season. He's a 1B/DH type. I think there are legitimate question marks about how good he is going to be going forward. I was honestly shocked that Baltimore offered what they did, and even more shocked that it was accepted.

He entered this market with heyward, cespedes, upton, Gordon, and even fowler as guys that other teams could go after to improve their lineup. Free agency is a game of musical chairs and there just aren't a lot of teams with the budget to pay big for a 1B/DH over a number of years this offseason.

Anyway, I think a lot of those guys I listed were expecting or hoping for multiple years at relatively high AAV and they didn't get it. None of them were exactly on the level of Davis, but it takes two parties to make a deal those guys were examples of players that struggled a bit to find a partner and lost whatever leverage they hoped to have. Davis is not immune to that situation.

I don't think it's likely that he will take a one year deal, but he may not have a choice, if his alternative is a few offers of 3/45.

He's only projected by steamer to be a 2.5 win player next year, so you'd expect a three year projection to be close to 6 war.

MLB Trade Rumors had Chris Davis pegged for a 6/144, and I don't think anyone was howling in derision at the projection. A contract like that would have been for a number of years above the median at an AAV that was among the highest. So, take that for what it's worth.

In any event, you make some good defensible points that imply that the market may have shifted under his feet since this projection that was made even before the NLCS and ALCS were finished, and even since the Orioles made the 7/154 offer in December, although recent reports indicate they would still be willing to sign him to that same offer. If true, he can save some face by taking it, versus a one-year flyer. Let's put it this way: I would bet Scott Boras would faint if Davis took a one-year somewhere else instead of the 7/154 offer in hand.

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Letting Avila go was probably stupid.

Signing Saltalmacchia was probably pretty smart though.

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Signing Saltalmacchia was probably pretty smart though.

agreed. It appears Avila didn't stack up well last year, but I believe he can hit better than he did last year and his pitch framing has often been lauded, so I think of the 3, he has the highest potential as a combination of O and D. I may be wrong though.

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After the refinement of BP's catcher stats, they rank James McCann as the fourth worst player in baseball by WAR last year (-1.7).

Discuss.

I have no qualms about suggesting McCann is overrated by some here.

I guess I'm wondering what the difference is in WAR between BP (Baseball Prospectus?) and baseball reference. BP is -1.7 and BR is 0.9.

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Letting Avila go was probably stupid.

Yes...his concussions gave area neurologists a ton of practical experience. Going to be hard to make that up.

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After the refinement of BP's catcher stats, they rank James McCann as the fourth worst player in baseball by WAR last year (-1.7).

Discuss.

I think it's too early to make any determination of his framing skill. That could change pretty quickly next year with experience. That being said, I am not particularly excited about him. He has a chance to be pretty good, but he seems overrated. If he does not improve his offense or his pitch framing, he will probably be the team's worst starting player.

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Let's keep in mind that Raburn not only could be a bat off the bench, but he also will wash the manager's car. There is some intrinsic value in that.

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But how does he stack up against a powerball winner?

I'm hungry and sleepy...initially thought this was reference to some Japanime thing.

I actually dream of the disruption to the MLB salary system that will occur when I have Powerball lottery winnings that will allow me to sustain the Detroit Tigers through ridiculous luxury tax spending.

It won't happen because I haven't bought any powerball tickets.

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Here's a timely article for you.

The Decline of Carlos Gonzalez: Star Player | FanGraphs Baseball

There used to be a time when Gonzalez would have commanded two top-100 prospects or better. From 2010 to -13, Gonzalez was a top-25 hitter and a top-25 overall position player, according to WAR. He was a legitimate star. He hit both lefties and righties, he ran the bases well, he was a lock for 20 homers as well as for 20 steals, and the defense graded out fine in the corners. The only thing that ever kept from CarGo from elevating himself from star to superstar status was that he had trouble staying on the field. When he wasn’t hurt, though, there weren’t many better than CarGo.

Thing about injuries, though, is that they’ll take a toll on you quick. Gonzalaz fractured his right wrist way back in the minors, and in 2011, it started hurting again, sending him to the disabled list. The next year it was a hamstring. Then it was a finger sprain in his right hand, then a tumor on his left hand the following year that required surgical removal. The big one came later in 2014 — left knee surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon. Gonzalez remained mostly healthy in 2015, aside from the occasional day off due to “tired legs,” “right knee discomfort,” “sprained left hand,” or the ever-present “flu-like symptoms.” But these last couple years, after the hand surgery and the knee surgery, Gonzalez hasn’t looked like himself.

FG_logo_transparency.png

Two Versions of Carlos Gonzalez

[TABLE=class: sortable, width: 600]

[TR=class: table-header, bgcolor: #505050]

[TD=class: d3-th]Years[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]PA[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]AVG[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]OBP[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]SLG[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]wRC+[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]HR*[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]SB*[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]BsR*[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]Def*[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-th]WAR*[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows, bgcolor: #FFFFFF]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]2010-13[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]2193[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].311[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].370[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].556[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]134[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]30[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]24[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]4.7[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-4.9[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]4.4[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: table-rows]

[TD=class: d3-td, align: left]2014-15[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]889[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].260[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].314[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td].505[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]104[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]34[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]3[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]0.2[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]-9.7[/TD]

[TD=class: d3-td]1.3[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

*HR, SB, BsR, Def and WAR figures prorated to 600 PA season

The power is still there, but at the expense of more than 50 points of average and on-base percentage. Even with 51 homers over his last 889 plate appearances, Gonzalez has barely been a league-average hitter, due his home park inflating home run totals. Gonzalez is striking out more, and walking less. There’s an argument to be made for BABIP influencing some of the on-base decline — it was .358 from 2010-13 and just .284 the last two years. But there’s also an argument to be made for Gonzalez’s true-talent BABIP having declined — we know that BABIP doesn’t age well, and there’s evidence that Gonzalez has been compromised physically in his rapidly declining stolen base, baserunning and defense numbers. Where Gonzalez used to run a speed score between six (“great”) and seven (“excellent”), it’s been between three (“poor”) and four-and-a-half (“average”) the last two years.

The Gonzalez who gets on base, runs and plays just slightly below-average defense, along with the power, is a four-win player. A star. The Gonzalez who no longer gets on base, and can’t run, and has become an actual liability in the field is just a guy with power. One who’s expensive and now on the wrong side of 30, and who still represents an injury risk.

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Run production has the same value as run prevention.

Anibal is a dollar bill. Cargo is 5 quarters. Would you take the dollar just because you already have more quarters than dollars?

But there's a much bigger potential free fall from Sanchez to Boyd/Farmer/etc. than from Cargo to Maybin/Collins/Gose.

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I think it's too early to make any determination of his framing skill. That could change pretty quickly next year with experience. That being said, I am not particularly excited about him. He has a chance to be pretty good, but he seems overrated. If he does not improve his offense or his pitch framing, he will probably be the team's worst starting player.

Nothing more misdirecting than a guy who puts up a few good numbers early that buoy up his stats for months and cement his place in fandom's hearts despite pretty much falling off the cliff for most of the rest of the season. I think we will see Saltalamacchia play a lot.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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Signing Saltalmacchia was probably pretty smart though.

Avila -8.4 framing runs (negative is bad), -1.1 WAR

Salty -7.4 framing runs, 0 WAR

Holaday -3.2 framing runs, -0.1 WAR

Basically, on a rate basis, they are estimated to be less valuable than Mike (.174/.230/.300) Zunino.

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