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2015 Off-season thread

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The thing with having a budget and trying to win now, is that trades like Suarez for Simon happen...young kids for a cost controlled stop-gap. So you lose your future and what you get for your present isn't that good.

That's what scares me as much as another 75 win season--we spend some money and fill some holes, but then make some bad trades to fill the rest. If you can make a good deal--great--but spend the $$ to fill the gaps with meh players, don't trade for them.

QFT.

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I think the list of players that will have improved seasons next year is pretty long.

JV is number 1 to me, given what he did in the second half. A full season of a #1/2 starter instead of what we got will be a big improvement.

Cabrera staying healthy

Victor starting the year healthy

Sanchez being healthy while he pitches, instead of pitching hurt, and when he does get hurt, keeping him from pitching

Castellanos hitting more like he did in the second half

McCann improving in his sophomore season

That would make for a good amount of internal improvement.

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I think if we move Iglesias is only about shifting parts around, not anything to do with him. It'd be moving a 3 WAR SS for a 3 WAR SP/LF and sliding the 1-2 WAR Machado in to SS.

any trade of Iglesias will make them a worse team in 2016 than if they hadn't made it. As Biggs would say - you can book that.

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any trade of Iglesias will make them a worse team in 2016 than if they hadn't made it. As Biggs would say - you can book that.

I would require a minimum of Tyson Ross or Jake Odorozzi in return. That'd be your #3, giving you $15M+ to spend in FA to make up for the downgrade at shortstop. I don't think that would make us worse automatically.

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The thing with having a budget and trying to win now, is that trades like Suarez for Simon happen...young kids for a cost controlled stop-gap. So you lose your future and what you get for your present isn't that good.

That's what scares me as much as another 75 win season--we spend some money and fill some holes, but then make some bad trades to fill the rest. If you can make a good deal--great--but spend the $$ to fill the gaps with meh players, don't trade for them.

I hope this is one place where Avila differs from DD. DD seems to love those trades for stopgaps.

To a certain extent, you don't know what DD knew as far as who else was available and their costs, and there is some value in getting what you want early so you aren't left holding the bag later.

A porcello for cespedes trade is great. I don't mind what they traded to get price.

But giving up valuable chips for one year of Simon in the offseason? Just sign a guy. It's not like Simon was dirt cheap.

A deadline trade for a rental is one thing, and you can point to good reasons for doing one of those. But that's because you have no other options.

DD did the same thing with renteria, and sort of with Sheffield, though he was extended at the time of the trade.

Maybe there were some others. But the league as a whole seems to shy away from making those types of trades. Maybe DD saw that as a market inefficiency. Teams don't just give players away for nothing. But that's all the more reason to let a team like the Reds hang on to Simon and instead go shopping for a Simon type in free agency.

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I would require a minimum of Tyson Ross or Jake Odorozzi in return. That'd be your #3, giving you $15M+ to spend in FA to make up for the downgrade at shortstop. I don't think that would make us worse automatically.

but you won't get that for Iglesias :wink:

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Just hit me that we should be getting hyped up for the Tiger's playoff game today.

Really sucks when you get used to that and then it's gone.

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I hope this is one place where Avila differs from DD. DD seems to love those trades for stopgaps.

To a certain extent, you don't know what DD knew as far as who else was available and their costs, and there is some value in getting what you want early so you aren't left holding the bag later.

A porcello for cespedes trade is great. I don't mind what they traded to get price.

But giving up valuable chips for one year of Simon in the offseason? Just sign a guy. It's not like Simon was dirt cheap.

A deadline trade for a rental is one thing, and you can point to good reasons for doing one of those. But that's because you have no other options.

DD did the same thing with renteria, and sort of with Sheffield, though he was extended at the time of the trade.

Maybe there were some others. But the league as a whole seems to shy away from making those types of trades. Maybe DD saw that as a market inefficiency. Teams don't just give players away for nothing. But that's all the more reason to let a team like the Reds hang on to Simon and instead go shopping for a Simon type in free agency.

Oh man, Renteria and Simon were the classic guys to stay away from too. Or at least not give up MLB ready pieces for.

Al Avila has the advantage in that 2 of the biggest needs are pretty deep in FA. Even if he doesn't go top-shopping, he should be able to get 2 SPs and a LF.

Bullpen might be an issue, depending on how serious he was about not necessarily his closer being already established as a closer in FA, as I think if he's serious about that it opens the pool to maybe a half dozen guys. But if we deal good prospects for Storen or Axford or Papelbon we're going to have a bad time.

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any trade of Iglesias will make them a worse team in 2016 than if they hadn't made it. As Biggs would say - you can book that.

Is Iglesias still in their plans after the "injury"? Am I reading to much into what Ausmus was saying about him at the end of the season.

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Oh man, Renteria and Simon were the classic guys to stay away from too. Or at least not give up MLB ready pieces for.

Al Avila has the advantage in that 2 of the biggest needs are pretty deep in FA. Even if he doesn't go top-shopping, he should be able to get 2 SPs and a LF.

Bullpen might be an issue, depending on how serious he was about not necessarily his closer being already established as a closer in FA, as I think if he's serious about that it opens the pool to maybe a half dozen guys. But if we deal good prospects for Storen or Axford or Papelbon we're going to have a bad time.

I'd stay away from Axford and Papelbon, but I'd take a shot at Storen. He was dominant this year until they screwed him up by trading for Papelbon. An idiotic move. He sort of sucked after that, but I think mentally he was probably reeling a bit. Get him into a new environment during his free agency year and I think we'll like the results. Since he is a pending FA, it shouldn't take TOO much to get him. I think the Nats are stuck with Papelbon.

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In my mind...you can almost hear the ticking from Iglesias. He's a time bomb of injuries and misery.

The team makes odd choices from time to time. Throw money at Prince but not the cheaper Cespedes when Cespedes filled a need and Prince really didn't. Don't offer market value to Miller and he signs with NY. How much better would we have been with Soria, Hardy and Wilson setting up Miller? Trade Suarez..a MLB ready middle IF prospect with some pop for a sub par SP and then trade your closer for a IF prospect with some pop who's not going to help you for 1-2 more years.

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In my mind...you can almost hear the ticking from Iglesias. He's a time bomb of injuries and misery.

The team makes odd choices from time to time. Throw money at Prince but not the cheaper Cespedes when Cespedes filled a need and Prince really didn't. Don't offer market value to Miller and he signs with NY. How much better would we have been with Soria, Hardy and Wilson setting up Miller? Trade Suarez..a MLB ready middle IF prospect with some pop for a sub par SP and then trade your closer for a IF prospect with some pop who's not going to help you for 1-2 more years.

They do look odd in retrospect, but take them individually:

• Prince only happened because VMart got hurt, we wanted another lefty bat and the old man wanted Prince. Case closed. If it were DD's call, we sign Cespedes instead.

• Miller was a lot of money and we technically had a closer (Nathan) who we were already paying $10M this year. We all knew he was going to suck even if he hadn't gotten hurt, but they weren't willing to pay $40M for a setup guy.

• We already had Kinsler and Iglesias entrenched in the middle infield, so Suarez likely was not going to get to play much. However, I agree that it seems the return could have been higher than Simon. Still, the thought was that we just needed a decent pitcher to fill the 4 or 5 spot in the rotation and Simon pretty much did that about as effectively as we realistically might have hoped.

• Soria was going to be a free agent and we were going nowhere. Not much point to keeping him, unless we were going to lock him up before the season ended, which was not going to happen. Might as well lget a good minor leaguer for him.

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I would require a minimum of Tyson Ross or Jake Odorozzi in return. That'd be your #3, giving you $15M+ to spend in FA to make up for the downgrade at shortstop. I don't think that would make us worse automatically.

I would do this trade.

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I believe that was true in 2015 as well as 2016.

True....except it seemed a lot more likely at the beginning of 2015.

...and I did not realize at the beginning of 2015 what a horrific bullpen manager Brad Ausmus is.

Neither of the above observations changes reality in any way....

Bottom line is that somehow Avila is going to have to acquire bullpen pieces that effectively override Brad's bullpen ineptitude....a very tall order with or without major $$ investments.

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Montero is getting $14m in each of the next 2 years; you don't pay that $ for a back up and the Tigers have made it clear McCann is the starter; there is no fit for Montero with Victor at DH

Schwarber is going to play 150 games/year in LF for the next decade.

I guess I'm not as optimistic about McCann as the primary catcher next season. And I think that Montero vs RHPs would help balance the lineup out a bit.

VMartinez on the roster really fouls up bench and platoon opportunities. Especially with Cabrera likely not an every day defensive player anymore. They really need for VMartinez to bounce back at the plate, stay healthy, and play about a dozen games at first.

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In my mind...you can almost hear the ticking from Iglesias. He's a time bomb of injuries and misery.

The team makes odd choices from time to time. Throw money at Prince but not the cheaper Cespedes when Cespedes filled a need and Prince really didn't. Don't offer market value to Miller and he signs with NY. How much better would we have been with Soria, Hardy and Wilson setting up Miller? Trade Suarez..a MLB ready middle IF prospect with some pop for a sub par SP and then trade your closer for a IF prospect with some pop who's not going to help you for 1-2 more years.

they claim they made a play at Cespedes but missed.

As to Prince vs Cespedes, we were all excited at the Prince signing because he was the perfect LEFT HANDED power compliment to Cabrera and we had persuaded ourselves he would not turn the Tiger basepaths into quicksand and 1st base into a defensive black hole, despite that we probably should have known better from watching some Milwaukee film.

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David Price cost himself some money today?

What other FAs do we want to tank in the postseason?

This Correa guy looks too tall next to Altuve. Better trade Iglesias for him.

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I guess I'm not as optimistic about McCann as the primary catcher next season. ....

Ditto that. Hope I'm/we're wrong because it does look like Alex is gone.

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Ditto that. Hope I'm/we're wrong because it does look like Alex is gone.

Oh, I hope I'm wrong as well. I think we're staring at an underwhelming duo behind the plate, or at the plate anyway. If the rest of the lineup is taken care of, left field is addressed, Gose platoons with an adequate RHH CF, health/maturity/rebounding around the other spots, than its not such a scary proposition.

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David Price cost himself some money today?

Did he place a bet on the game?

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True....except it seemed a lot more likely at the beginning of 2015.

...and I did not realize at the beginning of 2015 what a horrific bullpen manager Brad Ausmus is.

Neither of the above observations changes reality in any way....

Bottom line is that somehow Avila is going to have to acquire bullpen pieces that effectively override Brad's bullpen ineptitude....a very tall order with or without major $$ investments.

He would need a lot of starting and bullpen pieces no matter who the manager is.

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Oh, I hope I'm wrong as well. I think we're staring at an underwhelming duo behind the plate, or at the plate anyway. If the rest of the lineup is taken care of, left field is addressed, Gose platoons with an adequate RHH CF, health/maturity/rebounding around the other spots, than its not such a scary proposition.

Yeah, McCann costs nothing, there's nothing in FA, and even average catchers cost a lot. He hit league average for the position, provided solid D, and is 25. He's getting the ABs, no question. And he will provide far more than what we pay him.

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