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2015 Off-season thread

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So, he doesn't want Soria back or doesn't view him as a closer?

‏@matthewbmowery 4m4 minutes ago

Avila said w/ paucity of proven closers, may end up looking for few guys who have closer potential. "We really have to explore every avenue"

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Yep, my read into it is they'll sign a Kazmir/Samardzija/Kennedy type as their #3, and sign a Simon or Bud Norris type as their #5. I think they'll try the trade market for a closer, which means giving up prospects. I think they'll spend $8M-$10M or so in FA on BP setup pieces. And then try to piece together a RHH CF (Rajai?) and a Collins upgrade if they can.

This kind of puts a damper on things for me (which was maybe the point?). It seems like the plan is the same as it was for 2015--patch some holes and hope, instead of build.

And there seems a high likelihood that Collins gets a lot of at-bats in LF and Holaday is the backup C.

There's a good number of SP who can fit that 3 and 5 spot.

While I'd love to see them land one of the stud OFers, I think all they really need to do is get a 3 win type, which would be a substantial upgrade over their replacement level internal options.

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Petal to the metal? Will 2002 draftee Bo Flowers finally get a legit shot?

What would it cost to get Jay Bruce and Chapman over from the Reds? Maybe they'd consider Iglesias and other players that aren't brittle showboats?

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Do you think the pedal will be to the metal?

"Peddle to the metal"

is probably more fitting because Illitch is trying to sell us a line of B.S.

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Signing all the necessary pieces would have been the easiest way to rebuild this team quickly if budget was not a big deal. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they are doomed to mediocrity if they decide to operate within a budget. It just makes things a little more difficult.

I think they will have to make a trade or two and I see the following as the most likely trade candidates:

Jose Iglesias - coming off an all star season so his value is higher than the alternative. He still has the reputation as an elite defender, for good reason. He's also not expensive and under control for a few years. His batting average is nice, but it's kind of empty. He doesn't walk a lot or hit for any power. He's a solid MLB shortstop, but I think he might be the easiest starter to get rid of. The only reason you consider this is because you have machado in reserve. He isn't as good as Iglesias, but he's got a good glove and can probably hit enough not to embarrass himself.

Kinsler - one of the most valuable guys on the team, no doubt. But also making a fair amount of money that could be used elsewhere if we have a budget to worry about. He'd probably bring back the most in a trade given his on field value, and his money is less of an issue for a team without a hard budget. That could mean lower payroll teams that are operating below their internal cap, or to a big money team that doesn't care about the luxury tax too much. His on field performance is hard to replicate, so I think a lot of teams would be happy to acquire him.

Kyle Lobstein - somewhat proven back end starter and under control for a number of years. Could have value to a team without a lot of pitching depth in the upper levels.

Matt Boyd - similar to lobstein. Probably more valuable, but expendable if you are signing a couple of starters anyway and including Norris in a 5th starter battle that he will obviously win. You would still have Greene and fulmer in reserve as 6-7 starters early on.

Each of these guys could be traded alone or as part of a package to add a left fielder or closer. For instance, maybe a trade of Collins and lobstein to a team that could use a lobstein type could bring back a better left fielder. Maybe sending kinsler to the Yankees in exchange for Brett Gardner.

Are we better off with Gardner and machado or kinsler and Collins? I don't know.

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Peddle to the medal

Why must you guys meddle with my posts?

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Why must you guys meddle with my posts?

petals

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I have no issues with trading Iglesias and/or Walker. The Tigers probably will have to make a trade in order to plug a hole.

A couple of weeks ago, there was some speculation that the Pirates would likely part ways with Neil Walker. Probably not as valuable as Kinsler, but he's a career .801 OPS against RHP and can back fill a traded Kinsler if he is moved for other pieces.

I think Shelton had a nice outline why Iglesias could/should be moved. This might be the optimal time to move him based on his perceived value. I'm not so sure I'd hand the spot over to Machado, I might rather platoon he and Romine. But, I can understand moving Iglesias if a deal is there.

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So, what will the Cubs do with Schwarber, or more to the point, Montero? Is Montero going to be available via trade if they want Scharber catching, and if so, what would it take to acquire him? I'm not so sure that I'd trust a catching duo of McCann & Holaday. Could a platoon of Montero/McCann solve the catching spot for next season?

Edit: I'd imagine that the Tigers would want the Cubs to eat some money in that deal. Or could Sanchez get moved as a part of this with the Tigers going after an additional SP?

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Signing all the necessary pieces would have been the easiest way to rebuild this team quickly if budget was not a big deal. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they are doomed to mediocrity if they decide to operate within a budget. It just makes things a little more difficult.

I think they will have to make a trade or two and I see the following as the most likely trade candidates:

Jose Iglesias - coming off an all star season so his value is higher than the alternative. He still has the reputation as an elite defender, for good reason. He's also not expensive and under control for a few years. His batting average is nice, but it's kind of empty. He doesn't walk a lot or hit for any power. He's a solid MLB shortstop, but I think he might be the easiest starter to get rid of. The only reason you consider this is because you have machado in reserve. He isn't as good as Iglesias, but he's got a good glove and can probably hit enough not to embarrass himself.

Kinsler - one of the most valuable guys on the team, no doubt. But also making a fair amount of money that could be used elsewhere if we have a budget to worry about. He'd probably bring back the most in a trade given his on field value, and his money is less of an issue for a team without a hard budget. That could mean lower payroll teams that are operating below their internal cap, or to a big money team that doesn't care about the luxury tax too much. His on field performance is hard to replicate, so I think a lot of teams would be happy to acquire him.

Kyle Lobstein - somewhat proven back end starter and under control for a number of years. Could have value to a team without a lot of pitching depth in the upper levels.

Matt Boyd - similar to lobstein. Probably more valuable, but expendable if you are signing a couple of starters anyway and including Norris in a 5th starter battle that he will obviously win. You would still have Greene and fulmer in reserve as 6-7 starters early on.

Each of these guys could be traded alone or as part of a package to add a left fielder or closer. For instance, maybe a trade of Collins and lobstein to a team that could use a lobstein type could bring back a better left fielder. Maybe sending kinsler to the Yankees in exchange for Brett Gardner.

Are we better off with Gardner and machado or kinsler and Collins? I don't know.

Yes, I think if they are looking to cash in some assets for 2016, which it seems they are going to do, I think either Iglesias or Boyd will be the guy, maybe Boyd/Machado in a package. I think they'd have to be blown away to trade Ian, and Lobstein isn't going to fetch much (maybe a solid bullpen guy). Nobody else that they could trade would fetch a whole lot.

Their internal scouting on Boyd is going to be crucial--if they want to sign 2 SPs my guess is they will end up wanting to trade him.

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So, what will the Cubs do with Schwarber, or more to the point, Montero? Is Montero going to be available via trade if they want Scharber catching, and if so, what would it take to acquire him? I'm not so sure that I'd trust a catching duo of McCann & Holaday. Could a platoon of Montero/McCann solve the catching spot for next season??

Probably play Schwarber in the OF, as they have been. Montero has been good for their staff, I don't think they'd be in a rush to get rid of him.

And with all the other holes the Tigers have to fill, I don't think there's any chance they upgrade at C.

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Lobstein isn't going to fetch much (maybe a solid bullpen guy).

A solid bullpen guy would be much for a team with no bullpen.

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So, what will the Cubs do with Schwarber, or more to the point, Montero? Is Montero going to be available via trade if they want Scharber catching, and if so, what would it take to acquire him? I'm not so sure that I'd trust a catching duo of McCann & Holaday. Could a platoon of Montero/McCann solve the catching spot for next season?

Edit: I'd imagine that the Tigers would want the Cubs to eat some money in that deal. Or could Sanchez get moved as a part of this with the Tigers going after an additional SP?

Montero is getting $14m in each of the next 2 years; you don't pay that $ for a back up and the Tigers have made it clear McCann is the starter; there is no fit for Montero with Victor at DH

Schwarber is going to play 150 games/year in LF for the next decade.

Edited by RatkoVarda

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Lobstein has zero trade value. He throws an 89 mph fastball and got clobbered once he came back from injury. We'd have better luck trading Bernard for something of value...

I think if we move Iglesias, it's more of a clubhouse issue than anything else. I don't think we're getting a ton in return for him, and he's under team control for awhile so we'd really have no reason to move him. But if they are worried about him co-existing with McCann and others moving forward, then deal him.

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A solid bullpen guy would be much for a team with no bullpen.

I was thinking a guy in the AlAl range of quality. Anybody that wants Lobstein would probably be looking to use him in the 'pen as well.

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Lobstein has zero trade value. He throws an 89 mph fastball and got clobbered once he came back from injury. We'd have better luck trading Bernard for something of value...

I think if we move Iglesias, it's more of a clubhouse issue than anything else. I don't think we're getting a ton in return for him, and he's under team control for awhile so we'd really have no reason to move him. But if they are worried about him co-existing with McCann and others moving forward, then deal him.

I think if we move Iglesias is only about shifting parts around, not anything to do with him. It'd be moving a 3 WAR SS for a 3 WAR SP/LF and sliding the 1-2 WAR Machado in to SS.

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I think if we move Iglesias is only about shifting parts around, not anything to do with him. It'd be moving a 3 WAR SS for a 3 WAR SP/LF and sliding the 1-2 WAR Machado in to SS.

If we can get a 3 WAR SP/LF for him, I'll all for that. I just don't think that trade is out there, but we'll see. I also am not confident that Machado will be anything more than a replacement level player in 2016, which is fine if that's what we have to do, but I'm not counting on more than that.

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If we can get a 3 WAR SP/LF for him, I'll all for that. I just don't think that trade is out there, but we'll see. I also am not confident that Machado will be anything more than a replacement level player in 2016, which is fine if that's what we have to do, but I'm not counting on more than that.

WAR is a bit misleading IMO when it comes to position scarcity. I agree Machado would be somewhat replacement at the plate, but that's still 1-2 WAR for a SS a lot of times if you can field the position average.

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Yep, my read into it is they'll sign a Kazmir/Samardzija/Kennedy type as their #3, and sign a Simon or Bud Norris type as their #5. I think they'll try the trade market for a closer, which means giving up prospects. I think they'll spend $8M-$10M or so in FA on BP setup pieces. And then try to piece together a RHH CF (Rajai?) and a Collins upgrade if they can.

This kind of puts a damper on things for me (which was maybe the point?). It seems like the plan is the same as it was for 2015--patch some holes and hope, instead of build.

And there seems a high likelihood that Collins gets a lot of at-bats in LF and Holaday is the backup C.

Me too....basically they are downgrading LF and the #1 SP massively, trying to upgrade from Simon, fill some BP holes, and hope that JV/Sanchez/VMart are all back up to snuff (and presumably Miggy is healthy all season).

Sounds like 2016 is going to ride on the same health issues that sunk us in 2015...with guys who are a year older....oh joy.

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Signing all the necessary pieces would have been the easiest way to rebuild this team quickly if budget was not a big deal. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they are doomed to mediocrity if they decide to operate within a budget. It just makes things a little more difficult.

I think they will have to make a trade or two and I see the following as the most likely trade candidates:

Jose Iglesias - coming off an all star season so his value is higher than the alternative. He still has the reputation as an elite defender, for good reason. He's also not expensive and under control for a few years. His batting average is nice, but it's kind of empty. He doesn't walk a lot or hit for any power. He's a solid MLB shortstop, but I think he might be the easiest starter to get rid of. The only reason you consider this is because you have machado in reserve. He isn't as good as Iglesias, but he's got a good glove and can probably hit enough not to embarrass himself.

Kinsler - one of the most valuable guys on the team, no doubt. But also making a fair amount of money that could be used elsewhere if we have a budget to worry about. He'd probably bring back the most in a trade given his on field value, and his money is less of an issue for a team without a hard budget. That could mean lower payroll teams that are operating below their internal cap, or to a big money team that doesn't care about the luxury tax too much. His on field performance is hard to replicate, so I think a lot of teams would be happy to acquire him.

Kyle Lobstein - somewhat proven back end starter and under control for a number of years. Could have value to a team without a lot of pitching depth in the upper levels.

Matt Boyd - similar to lobstein. Probably more valuable, but expendable if you are signing a couple of starters anyway and including Norris in a 5th starter battle that he will obviously win. You would still have Greene and fulmer in reserve as 6-7 starters early on.

Each of these guys could be traded alone or as part of a package to add a left fielder or closer. For instance, maybe a trade of Collins and lobstein to a team that could use a lobstein type could bring back a better left fielder. Maybe sending kinsler to the Yankees in exchange for Brett Gardner.

Are we better off with Gardner and machado or kinsler and Collins? I don't know.

Disagree on Lobstein and Boyd having much trade value, but I agree WRT to Kinsler and Iggy being the likely pieces to move.

If they don't make some trades it's going to be hard to make this work in 2016 with the pieces they have and are likely to acquire from FA with a payroll <<$189MM.

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I'm beginning to think that any hope to compete in 2016 will rest largely on VMart's bat, Sanchez's arm, and Miggy's various appendages.

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Me too....basically they are downgrading LF and the #1 SP massively, trying to upgrade from Simon, fill some BP holes, and hope that JV/Sanchez/VMart are all back up to snuff (and presumably Miggy is healthy all season).

Sounds like 2016 is going to ride on the same health issues that sunk us in 2015...with guys who are a year older....oh joy.

The thing with having a budget and trying to win now, is that trades like Suarez for Simon happen...young kids for a cost controlled stop-gap. So you lose your future and what you get for your present isn't that good.

That's what scares me as much as another 75 win season--we spend some money and fill some holes, but then make some bad trades to fill the rest. If you can make a good deal--great--but spend the $$ to fill the gaps with meh players, don't trade for them.

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I'm beginning to think that any hope to compete in 2016 will rest largely on VMart's bat, Sanchez's arm, and Miggy's various appendages.

Miggy is going to be relatively healthy in the off-season for the first time in a long time. That'll really help him physically and will give him plenty of time to get his swing where he wants it. VMart too hopefully, after he takes a couple months to get fully healthy.

Of course Sanchez might not have that opportunity. But taking it slow and limiting pitches with him is maybe not a bad thing anyways, considering his history.

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I'm beginning to think that any hope to compete in 2016 will rest largely on VMart's bat, Sanchez's arm, and Miggy's various appendages.

I believe that was true in 2015 as well as 2016.

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