Jump to content

ROMAD1

Why not hire Gardenhire?

Should Ron Gardenhire be the next Tigers manager?  

34 members have voted

  1. 1. Should Ron Gardenhire be the next Tigers manager?

    • Yes
      12
    • No
      12
    • Only if all better options are exhausted (explain)
      10


Recommended Posts

It was a good analysis, but I thought it pertained to Dombrowski as much as or more than Ausmus.

True, DD's selection of relievers (and some starters) was bad, but I don't think he was any different in this regard versus previous years....Leyland did a much better job shaping/rounding the bullpen even in the several rough years than Ausmus was able to do at his best in some parts of 2014....I still believe that one of DD's biggest errors was in hiring Ausmus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd say five max. I can't see this garbage pitching staff winning any more than that. It's one of the worst Tigers staffs I've seen in 47 years.

It's bad, but there are probably at least 10 others that have been worse in that time....and most of them in the 19 years of darkness until 2006. Like this abomination: 2003 Detroit Tigers Pitching Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'd say five max. I can't see this garbage pitching staff winning any more than that. It's one of the worst Tigers staffs I've seen in 47 years.

I still keep going back to the chicken/egg thing. How many of these terrible performances were due to pitchers not being removed on time? They all have a limit.

I'm not saying one way or another but I don't think it should keep being ignored.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'd say five max. I can't see this garbage pitching staff winning any more than that. It's one of the worst Tigers staffs I've seen in 47 years.

One of the worst yes, but still miles away from Brian Williams and the 96ers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's bad, but there are probably at least 10 others that have been worse in that time....and most of them in the 19 years of darkness until 2006. Like this abomination: 2003 Detroit Tigers Pitching Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

The second half looks pretty similar:

Detroit Tigers Leaderboards » 2015 » Pitchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

...only four guys left on the team with sub-5 eras since the ASB (JV, Hardy, Wilson, VerHagen).

...AlAl and Rondon are the only others with sub-4.5 FIPs during that time, and the have huge walk rates.

Icky-poo.

Replacing Price with a plus starter and Soria with a plus reliever and getting a healthy/effective Sanchez and reasonably effective Greene (at least as a swingman) back would certainly help, and hopefully we have at least four quality relievers out of the current bunch (which may be a stretch).

Even with that much good fortune, we'd still need at least 2 more bullpen arms and I'm guessing another quality starter at least at the trading deadline to make it work in 2016.

Have at it, Avila.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I still keep going back to the chicken/egg thing. How many of these terrible performances were due to pitchers not being removed on time? They all have a limit.

I'm not saying one way or another but I don't think it should keep being ignored.

It doesn't matter much because the guys that weren't taken out in time would have been replaced by another terrible pitcher. 162 games 9 innings each game. They don't have nearly enough MLB-quality pitchers to handle that many innings. I don't know how anybody can look at this staff and not see that it's terrible.

Edited by tiger337

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
what is mysterious about the fact that they continually try to steal when it's not there, continue to squander men at 3rd with the 'contact' play, and conversely - virtually never hit and run? I don't think those are mysteries, they are just bad management. The running game is the one area where I don't think Ausmus' deficiencies are obscure, ambiguous, personnel constrained, or debatable.

What's mysterious are things like Kinsler's pickoffs, Cabrera regularly running through stop signs, steals that weren't called, Clark sending guys, etc. I would like to know how or if he has addressed these things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It doesn't matter much because the guys that weren't taken out in time would have been replaced by another terrible pitcher. 162 games 9 innings each game. They don't have nearly enough MLB-quality pitchers to handle that many innings. I don't know how anybody can look at this staff and not see that it's terrible.

Yes, our pitchers suck, but so did our managers handling of them. It's clearly both. Using Alex Wilson in so many low leverage situations and Joba Chamberlain in so many high leverage situations the first couple months of the season bordered on malpractice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think you can find examples for everyone who's ever managed. if they win, you think they're a saint. If they lose, you hate them. I also think if you go back and look at each decision, there was a rationale for it, you may not agree with it, and the alternative decision probably didn't have a much greater probability of success. You also need to use all your players and keep people rested.

Read this (the link that Lee provided I mean...):

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, our pitchers suck, but so did our managers handling of them. It's clearly both. Using Alex Wilson in so many low leverage situations and Joba Chamberlain in so many high leverage situations the first couple months of the season bordered on malpractice.

I understand that, but even if he did use Wilson in high leverage situations all year, he still needed someone to get the game to Wilson, so instead of giving up runs in the 8th, they would have given up runs in the 6th or 7th. He's using Wilson and Hardy in high leverage situations now, but they still get pounded every night because they don't have enough pitchers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It doesn't matter much because the guys that weren't taken out in time would have been replaced by another terrible pitcher. 162 games 9 innings each game. They don't have nearly enough MLB-quality pitchers to handle that many innings. I don't know how anybody can look at this staff and not see that it's terrible.

Lee, there are like 10 guys on the Royals staff who have made significant positive contributions this year who either sucked or were out of baseball over the past two years. I don't see how you can look at the Royal's raw material and say "see, they had better pitchers". Selection is certainly a major factor but I'm not buying that it explains all or perhaps even most of the differential between the two teams this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A sabermetric robot programmed by Shelton and Pyro.

I'd program it to mock reporters whenever they asked dumb questions like 'did you think of bunting the runner over there?'

'BEEP BOOP NO FOR I AM A MIGHTY ROBOT 10101000100 ONLY A PUNY HUE-MON WOULD THINK OF SUCH A FOOLISH STRATEGY. BEGONE FROM MY PRESENCE BEFORE I KILL YOU WITH MY MIGHTY LASERS' - Managertron 5000

As for Gardenhire, the aforementioned .gif was from when he was bunting 5000000x a game in 2009 or so, so I think it's sadly been lost to the sands of time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Lee, there are like 10 guys on the Royals staff who have made significant positive contributions this year who either sucked or were out of baseball over the past two years. I don't see how you can look at the Royal's raw material and say "see, they had better pitchers". Selection is certainly a major factor but I'm not buying that it explains all or perhaps even most of the differential between the two teams this year.

It has seemed under DD that scouting other teams' DFAs simply has never been any kind of priority for the Tigers as an org - or if it is they are very very bad at it. They may invite a guy or two to ST, but after that, usually nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Lee, there are like 10 guys on the Royals staff who have made significant positive contributions this year who either sucked or were out of baseball over the past two years. I don't see how you can look at the Royal's raw material and say "see, they had better pitchers". Selection is certainly a major factor but I'm not buying that it explains all or perhaps even most of the differential between the two teams this year.

Their front office/ scouts did a good job identifying pitchers that could succeed in relief and the Tigers didn't. That's not a new thing this year. It's been going on for years. That has always been Dombrowski's achilles heel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Their front office/ scouts did a good job identifying pitchers that could succeed in relief and the Tigers didn't. That's not a new thing this year. It's been going on for years. That has always been Dombrowski's achilles heel.

Absolutely, it's a long-standing pro scouting failure. There are starters out there in Triple A who get lit up the second or third time through the order, there are one-inning guys on the minor league free agent junk heap - you have to identify them. Find at least one every year. What minor league guys did the Tigers find recently? I'll give them Al Alburquerque, he's been useful although erratic. I think that bullpens are made from failed starters - they aren't made from college bullpens (those are failed college starters).

The process is continuous because the shelf life of a good reliever is 2 or 3 years at best. Please, don't tell me about Rivera, Eckersley and so on. I'm talking about Cliff Politte - a guy that gives you a couple of solid innings, a little bit late in his career, for a couple of years, and that's it.

If the Tigers are hiring some SABR guys this would be a good opportunity for analysis - what are the characteristics of a Triple A starter that translate into a solid bullpen contributor at the major league level?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

If the Tigers are hiring some SABR guys this would be a good opportunity for analysis - what are the characteristics of a Triple A starter that translate into a solid bullpen contributor at the major league level?

do you really need Sabermetrics to figure out you don't start with 4.5BB/9IP?

....[/sarcasm]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
do you really need Sabermetrics to figure out you don't start with 4.5BB/9IP?

....[/sarcasm]

It will be interesting to see what happens if Gardenhire is hired since his staffs have let the league in lowest walk rates several times. It seems like he wouldn't be tolerant of guys like Rondon, Alburquerque.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
do you really need Sabermetrics to figure out you don't start with 4.5BB/9IP?....[/sarcasm]

OK so that would be in the column marked "Bad". I know that you are just goofing around but there should be a measurement of IL starters (oh OK PCL too if you insist) whose metrics during the first 3 innings are a lot better than the innings that follow. So, those are the guys that interest me as bullpen guys. Please, no more college relievers, they should have "SUCK" on the back of their shirt above their number, instead of their surname.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing about this Gardenhire rumor....if it turns out to be true, Avila needs to find the "inside source" and fire his or her ***.

I don't like Ausmus, but that is pretty ****** if someone is going around bragging that they have already gotten Gardenhire in the bag.

You treat people better than that, even if you're about to fire them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I understand that, but even if he did use Wilson in high leverage situations all year, he still needed someone to get the game to Wilson, so instead of giving up runs in the 8th, they would have given up runs in the 6th or 7th. He's using Wilson and Hardy in high leverage situations now, but they still get pounded every night because they don't have enough pitchers.

There was a point in the season where Wilson had appeared in something like 34 games and only 7 times with a lead. Bringing him in while down 3 runs was a waste and Brad did it a lot. Because he didn't used to pitch for the Yankees or whatever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wilson pitched in 53 games this year. 28 times he came in with the Tigers LOSING. Over half. You can't tell me Brad had nobody to turn to. How many times was a reliever struggling and Brad just left him out there to blow the lead before calling on Wilson?

Terrible management and it absolutely led to a lot of the pitchers' inflated numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In summary, my positions are:

a. not interested in Gardenhire as a a manager, but it likely doesn't matter much,

b. I have no confidence in Ausmus as a manager and think he managed his bullpen horribly, but the much bigger problem is the pitchers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It will be interesting to see what happens if Gardenhire is hired since his staffs have let the league in lowest walk rates several times. It seems like he wouldn't be tolerant of guys like Rondon, Alburquerque.

OK, but who does he go to then? If there were guys that were better than Rondon and Alburquerque in the upper minors, they'd be in Detroit by now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What's mysterious are things like Kinsler's pickoffs, Cabrera regularly running through stop signs, steals that weren't called, Clark sending guys, etc. I would like to know how or if he has addressed these things.

Hasn't base running been a long standing issue with the Tigers, second only to the bullpen?

The play the other night where Clark was holding JDMartinez while standing a few steps off of the foul line and got looped to the outside by a stopping and then restarting JDMartinez and eventually scored while McCann got into a run down was just amazingly bizarre to see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      96,674
    • Total Posts
      2,921,712
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×
×
  • Create New...