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Detroit Lions 2015 Predictions Thread

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Rick Smith? What happened to Wins and Losses being the decider? Has he won a playoff game? Has Keim done something Mayhew hasn't?

I'm fine with loving Thompson, but he definitely has some ups and downs in his draft history. He doesn't have an all out miss of a draft I guess, but he has 3 drafts that basically landed one player each and a decent amount of blown firsts(Sherrod,Harrell,Raji,Hawk)

Can you imagine Echo's reaction if Mayhew traded a first round pick for Trent Richardson?

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Rick Smith? What happened to Wins and Losses being the decider? Has he won a playoff game? Has Keim done something Mayhew hasn't?

I'm fine with loving Thompson, but he definitely has some ups and downs in his draft history. He doesn't have an all out miss of a draft I guess, but he has 3 drafts that basically landed one player each and a decent amount of blown firsts(Sherrod,Harrell,Raji,Hawk)

Rick Smith has won two playoff games, won more games overall, has more .500 or greater seasons (6 in 8 years vs. 2 in Mayhew's 6), and has been able to retain his top flight talent (J.J. Watt for instance), which Mayhew has been unable to do.

Keim hasn't made any mistakes. His first year he hired an older, rookie coach who has proved worthy of the hire; his drafts have been very solid (Ellington in the 6th round, John Brown in the third, Tyran Mathieu in the third, Alex Okafor (8 sacks last year) in the 4th, and other lesser guys like Kevin Minter who is going to be their starting LB in the 4th, and Deone Bucannon who started 9 games his rookie season). He also has quite a few successful FA acquisitions like Jared Veldheer who looks to be a franchise LT in the prime of his career who was had at 5 years, $35M...a steal for a player who dominated last year (and a Michigan/division 3 school native).

I never said Thompson was perfect, far from it, but his success speaks for itself. Sure, he had some poor years in 2011 and 2012, but then look at years like 2007-2010 where he drafted at least 4 starters every single draft those years, or even last year where three draft picks all started at least 10 games their rookie seasons (with Richard Rodgers also starting 5). Even 2013 he ended up drafting 3 starters with one (Lacy) being a pro-bowler...and what is most impressive is he is finding these guys in rounds 2-6...it's extraordinary.

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Rick Smith has won two playoff games, won more games overall, has more .500 or greater seasons (6 in 8 years vs. 2 in Mayhew's 6), and has been able to retain his top flight talent (J.J. Watt for instance), which Mayhew has been unable to do.

Psst..,Rick Smith decided to pay an injury prone running back instead of Mario Williams.

Keim hasn't made any mistakes. His first year he hired an older, rookie coach who has proved worthy of the hire; his drafts have been very solid (Ellington in the 6th round, John Brown in the third, Tyran Mathieu in the third, Alex Okafor (8 sacks last year) in the 4th, and other lesser guys like Kevin Minter who is going to be their starting LB in the 4th, and Deone Bucannon who started 9 games his rookie season). He also has quite a few successful FA acquisitions like Jared Veldheer who looks to be a franchise LT in the prime of his career who was had at 5 years, $35M...a steal for a player who dominated last year (and a Michigan/division 3 school native).

Keim has a solid record - but they haven't gotten anything out of Jonathan Cooper who was a top 10 pick. If Mayhew did that, you'd be railing him.

Outside of your top 5-6, none of the GMs you listed would hold up to the same scrutiny you give Mayhew.

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Psst..' date='Rick Smith decided to pay an injury prone running back instead of Mario Williams.

Keim has a solid record - but they haven't gotten anything out of Jonathan Cooper who was a top 10 pick. If Mayhew did that, you'd be railing him.

Outside of your top 5-6, none of the GMs you listed would hold up to the same scrutiny you give Mayhew.[/quote']

I'm not sure what part of this post is most laughably wrong.

Let's take the first gem....Mario Williams vs. Arian Foster. So your claim is that in 2011/12 Rick Smith should have out-bid Buffalo's 6 year/$96M ($31M guaranteed) deal instead of paying Foster 5 years $43M ($20M Guaranteed) due to the fact that Arian Foster is injury prone. Let's look at the facts (I use those because I'm not "easy" or "lazy")...

In 2010 and 2011 Mario Williams had missed a combined 14 games, Arian Foster had missed 3 games in the same time. So, really if anyone was to be viewed as injury prone, especially at the time, it would have been Williams...not Foster. Now, add in the fact that Rick Smith had just drafted J.J. Watt #11 overall who essentially played the same position in 2011, it seems like a very clear and easy decision to pay Foster who was an all-pro in 2010 and a second team all-pro in 2011 (and obviously a pro-bowler both years) half the amount that Mario Williams was being offered by Buffalo. Not to mention that aside from 2013 when Foster missed 8 games, he has still played extremely well (even in 2013 he produced when on the field)...so I really can't fault him for choosing Foster over Williams, at all.

I don't expect Mayhew or any GM to hit on every pick, or even every lottery pick...I never claimed as such and I don't single out any particular pick that Mayhew has made. My issue is the amount of picks and the fact that Mayhew has had entire drafts bust within a few years. Not to mention, Cooper missed his entire first season to injury so for all intents and purposes last year was his first season, there is a very good chance he could end up being a solid player.

And your last point could not be more wrong, all the GMs I listed have all won multiple playoff games or their division. They have constructed teams that win.

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No' date=' my comparison looked at how many stars, starters and contributors Mayhew and Newsome got from their drafts. It placed production within context - which is obviously needed in a sport like football.

These are all good answers.

The fact you have Rick Smith ahead of Martin Mayhew is pretty much makes the case for me.

Meanwhile, the Bengals front office record has been fantastic. Marvin Lewis is more of the GM than Mike Brown, but I have no problem putting what that organization has done ahead of Mayhew (I actually think they use a lot of crowd sourcing/Draft Twitter in their draft prep.) But the rest on that list isn't on Mayhew's level and it isn't close.

Grigson? Really? Haha.

Mayhew can realistically be no lower than 7th on that list.[/quote']

So funny how out of touch you are with the rest of the football watching community....

Here is a list of GM power rankings:

NFL's Best GMs 2015 - Goal Line Stand - Rotoworld.com (Mayhew 20th, Rick Smith 13th, Grigson 11th)

NFL GM rankings 2015: Seahawks' Super run makes Schneider No. 1 | Sporting News (Mayhew 14th, Rick Smith 12th, Grigson 10th)

Bruce Arians/Steve Keim: NFL's top coach/general manager duo - NFL.com (This was just a list of top GM/Coach combo, Rick Smith/Bill O'Brien was #9; Mayhew/Caldwell aren't listed, Grigson/Pagano are 6th)

Rating General Managers in the NFL Draft | National Football Post (This only takes into consideration the draft, Rick Smith was 5th, Grigson was 6th and Mayhew was 14th)

Edit:

http://www.motownsports.com/forums/lions-game-threads/104025-12-7-14-buccaneers-lions-2014-13-fox-1-05pm-10.html#post3180486

Here is your post about Newsome vs. Mayhew, what it lacks is any reference to statistics of any kind, no reference to draft position or team need, no reference to amount of games started...it was a popularity contest with the most biased judge in history as the sole deciding factor.

Edit #2:

I'm having fun researching this stuff, another interesting little stat.

Out of 46 draft picks that Mayhew has selected, 15 (32%) are already out of the league with an average draft round of 3.9.

Out of 52 draft picks that Rick Smith has selected, 8 (15%) are out of the league with an average draft round of 5.0.

Just a fun fact showing how often Mayhew's picks jettison out of the league and how they are drafted quite a bit higher than Rick Smith's picks who are no longer in the league.

Edited by EchO

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Can you imagine Echo's reaction if Mayhew traded a first round pick for Trent Richardson?

Never asked any general managers to be mistake free, not sure why you are picking and choosing a few poor decisions and not looking at the totality of what they have done, that is very easy and lazy. The colts have had solid drafts, you don't mention that in the last three years (his only drafts) he has drafted 9 starters, 7 of whom were drafted outside of the first round. For the record, every GM ranking that I found had Grigson over Mayhew and Smith. Getting within a game of the Super Bowl will have that effect.

Edit:

Fun fact, even without their first round pick, last years draft classes PFF rankings are as such...(I included all players who played at least 100 snaps).

Lions: -23.9 (every draft pick included had a negative rating)

Colts: +5.2 (every draft pick included had a positive rating) if you include Richardson the rating drops to +3.6 as Richardson's rating was -1.6.

Looks like that trade really didn't make much of an impact when comparing the two teams draft classes; even with significantly less resources Grigson made much more impactful decisions finding a franchise RT who already started his rookie year, Moncrief who looks to be a very solid #3 with upside of a top WR, and Newsome who should get consistent playing time as a pass-rushing LB.

Edited by EchO

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If Stafford played like Luck last year the Lions win the division and a bye then who knows what happens. Its not mayhews fault that the year the Lions had the number 1 pick they just got good qb where as the colts happened to get a generational one.

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If Stafford played like Luck last year the Lions win the division and a bye then who knows what happens. Its not mayhews fault that the year the Lions had the number 1 pick they just got good qb where as the colts happened to get a generational one.

And who knows on that stuff, right? Seriously -- I remember lots of chatter about how unlucky the Lions were that they didn't have the #1 pick the following year when Bradford came out. I hope and believe that Stafford will have a year that measures up to the best QBs in the league, I think he's capable of it.

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If Stafford played like Luck last year the Lions win the division and a bye then who knows what happens. Its not mayhews fault that the year the Lions had the number 1 pick they just got good qb where as the colts happened to get a generational one.

This is a fair point, but lets remember that Grigson still had to make the right pick. He could have just as easily drafted RG3 and have had multiple losing seasons since then. Look at what the Redskins gave up to trade up for RG3 and how that worked out for them...

Echo, as much as I don't want to agree with him on this stuff, is on his game in this thread. I hope he's wrong, but he's making a compelling case.

I know some on this board don't believe me when I say this, but I'm not a "troll" or a "hater" I genuinely want the Lions to do well, I simply haven't seen enough from Mayhew to think he can pull it off. I don't see this team, with it's current front office ever winning a Super Bowl. We are in win-now mode and, IMO, are still so far away with the window seemingly closing...add in the fact that in my opinion the last two years drafts have been duds, and I'm just not convinced it's going to happen.

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If Stafford played like Luck last year the Lions win the division and a bye then who knows what happens. Its not mayhews fault that the year the Lions had the number 1 pick they just got good qb where as the colts happened to get a generational one.

He coulda picked Aaron Curry like many (including myself) wanted him to do. Ok, maybe that wouldn't have worked out . . .

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No actual GM would have taken RG3 over Luck IMO

I would never have thought an actual GM would trade three first rounds picks and a second for RG3, but it happened and however easy you thought the decision was, it still had to be made. And while that was obviously the best decision Grigson has made, his other drafts were very solid to and I like many of his free agent acquisitions. It is for all those reasons I give him the nod over Mayhew. If one bad running back decision as the difference between being a good GM and a bad be, Mayhew would have been fired long ago (trading up for Best and LeShoure).

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It was a stupid analysis. Typical barnwell. He made a few points that most of us non-kool aid drinkers would find correct (lack of pass rush, will really miss suh, defense will decline, oline needs to really improve), but he made so many comments that were obviously made by someone who doesnt watch the lions that it became obvious he looked at some stats and made the prediction based on those and not the actual team.

Like:

Said abdullah is no reggie bush like thats a bad thing. He obviously didnt watch the lions last year. Or nebraska.

Said lions oline would miss raiola. Which...ummmm....like....no.

It wasnt great.

Barnwell's season predictions also included one NFC team finishing with a record below 7-9 (Washington Redskins @ 5-11). I guess I'd find it unlikely that there would only be one team with a sub 7-9 record, which makes me believe Barnwell makes those predictions by pulling numbers out of thin air.

Not to mention the fact that while Vic Fangio is a great coordinator that will make a difference long-term for the Bears, Barnwell must think he can walk on water and change water into wine. He's inherited one of the worst defenses in recent memory. Now, Rod Marinelli did wonders for the Dallas D last year, and they were historically bad in 2013, but I think that sort of change is going to take time in Chicago.

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I would never have thought an actual GM would trade three first rounds picks and a second for RG3, but it happened and however easy you thought the decision was, it still had to be made. And while that was obviously the best decision Grigson has made, his other drafts were very solid to and I like many of his free agent acquisitions. It is for all those reasons I give him the nod over Mayhew. If one bad running back decision as the difference between being a good GM and a bad be, Mayhew would have been fired long ago (trading up for Best and LeShoure).

The guy basically hasn't drafted a defensive player who is starter quality. His OL is pretty terrible too. That team would be drafting top 10 every year without Luck IMO. I think Mayhew would get destroyed even more than he does around these parts if he ignored huge sections of his team in that way. Mewhort was a nice pick last year though.

Mayhew has his warts and I get it, we need to win a playoff game for anyone to like him or Stafford, whether fair or not. I'm not sure I believe a guy can have the ability to build a roster that can consistently compete for and/or make the playoffs but lack the ability to get them to a playoff win, or 3-4. Especially given how many WC teams have won it of late. We've seen him put both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense on the field, so its hard for me to question his abilities on either side of the ball. Depth has always been an issue in my time as a Lions fan as well and I think it is a strength these days, so I give him a lot of credit there. This was probably the toughest year for cuts I can remember and guys at the bottom of our roster who we didn't have room for were able to be traded for draft picks. I think that's a great sign. Here's hoping we can perform on the field this year now. Put up or shut up time.

and fwiw trading that amount of picks for RG3 was an easy decision that any team without a QB should have been happy to make IMO. He's fallen apart, but QB prospects like him don't come around often and you have to go get them if you don't have one. Luck just so happened to be beyond generational as a prospect.

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I agree that it would've been worth trading that much for a franchise QB. But I really never saw that in RG3. He had talent but his build just wasn't somebody I would trade the farm for. He isn't built like Cam Newton. Yeah he had high upside and if he fell to me at 7 or 8 and I needed a QB I would take him, but even in foresight I thought that was just a ridiculous trade that Washington made. You don't make trades like that unless you come across a generational talent with no question marks.

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I know some on this board don't believe me when I say this, but I'm not a "troll" or a "hater" I genuinely want the Lions to do well, I simply haven't seen enough from Mayhew to think he can pull it off. I don't see this team, with it's current front office ever winning a Super Bowl. We are in win-now mode and, IMO, are still so far away with the window seemingly closing...add in the fact that in my opinion the last two years drafts have been duds, and I'm just not convinced it's going to happen.

I don't believe that you're a troll or a hater, and I don't think any of the rest of see you that way either. I think a more apt analogy might be that you're the guy at the party pointing out how terrible we're all gonna feel tomorrow when we're trying to enjoy ourselves tonight. We know you're probably right, but don't want to be reminded of it at the moment. However, for reasons that I struggle to understand, you keep coming to the party and I fully believe that you want to be here. More power to you, sir -- IRL, I'm the guy who doesn't drink and isn't fun to be around at parties, so I don't generally go to them. I admire your moxie for cheering for the Lions without the comfort of deluding yourself that it will turn out differently than you know it has to. You're keeping us honest, and although I don't always enjoy it I acknowledge that it is done with our best interests at heart.

You magnificent bastard.

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Yeah I don't think Echo is a troll at all, he always makes valid points and arguments. I just think that sometimes he judges Mayhew harsher than he does other guys, but of course that could be me having my Honolulu blue shades on.

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The guy basically hasn't drafted a defensive player who is starter quality. His OL is pretty terrible too. That team would be drafting top 10 every year without Luck IMO. I think Mayhew would get destroyed even more than he does around these parts if he ignored huge sections of his team in that way. Mewhort was a nice pick last year though.

Mayhew has his warts and I get it, we need to win a playoff game for anyone to like him or Stafford, whether fair or not. I'm not sure I believe a guy can have the ability to build a roster that can consistently compete for and/or make the playoffs but lack the ability to get them to a playoff win, or 3-4. Especially given how many WC teams have won it of late. We've seen him put both a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense on the field, so its hard for me to question his abilities on either side of the ball. Depth has always been an issue in my time as a Lions fan as well and I think it is a strength these days, so I give him a lot of credit there. This was probably the toughest year for cuts I can remember and guys at the bottom of our roster who we didn't have room for were able to be traded for draft picks. I think that's a great sign. Here's hoping we can perform on the field this year now. Put up or shut up time.

and fwiw trading that amount of picks for RG3 was an easy decision that any team without a QB should have been happy to make IMO. He's fallen apart, but QB prospects like him don't come around often and you have to go get them if you don't have one. Luck just so happened to be beyond generational as a prospect.

A few things...first off Grigson has only had three drafts so many of these players hare still developing and his first draft was obviously very offense happy (much like Mayhews) and the one defensive player he drafted was a starter last year and the only reason he isn't starting this year is because their 5th round pick from this year's draft is starting.

Werner was a starter last year and Newsome had 6.5 sacks in his rookie season and then 5 of 8 picks this year were on the defensive side of the ball. All that being said, the plan is clearly to load up on offensive talent and make the most use out of their #1 asset, Luck.

A few other minor points. I think for a long time Mayhew either didn't address or very poorly addressed the secondary (cornerbacks) in particular so he did sort of fall into the same habit. I'm not saying it is necessarily the best way to go and I would prefer a more balanced approach from Grigson and to be honest, that is why he is rated in the 10-14 range, but overall I like what he has done in the draft, I like what Grigson has done this season with signing a bunch of veterans on short contracts to try and push to win it all before Luck gets his new contract and money gets tight. I definitely don't think Grigson is a perfect GM, just better than Mayhew.

Lastly, I think that the Colts would be much worse off without Luck, but at the same time the Lions would be equally poor without Stafford. Neither of the two franchises are on the same level as a NE or GB that can overcome such losses. My hope is that we get to that point and can enjoy the succes those two franchises have had for such prolonged periods, but I also understand how hard it is to get to that point. If we could even get to what the Colts have done the last three years (three straight 11-5 seasons, three straight playoff appearances, two division titles, and three playoff wins) I would have more confidence in the team and front office.

Edit:

And I couldn't disagree more about trading for RG3, the risk is just too great and if something he doesn't pan out (like he didn't) you simply set your team back too much. The cost and risk is just too great for my liking. Not sure if there is any precedent for teams who trade up like that having success. I would rather give my team more options in the draft to find guys outside the top few picks. If you get lucky and a guy like Luck is available at #1 you take it, but I just don't agree with trading 3 first round and a second to move up 4 spots like that.

Edited by EchO

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I agree that it would've been worth trading that much for a franchise QB. But I really never saw that in RG3. He had talent but his build just wasn't somebody I would trade the farm for. He isn't built like Cam Newton. Yeah he had high upside and if he fell to me at 7 or 8 and I needed a QB I would take him, but even in foresight I thought that was just a ridiculous trade that Washington made. You don't make trades like that unless you come across a generational talent with no question marks.

To be fair that's pretty much how he was talked about pre-draft

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Can we go back and re-do these?

Yes

Before the season, I thought they would go 16-0, but after the first two games seeing how pathetic the Lions look, I may have to flip my numbers around.

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Week 1: @ San Diego Chargers Loss

Week 2: @ Minnesota Vikings Win

Week 3: Denver Broncos (Primetime Game NBC) Win

Week 4: @ Seattle Seahawks (MNF ESPN) Loss

Week 5: Arizona Cardinals Win

Week 6: Chicago Bears Win

Week 7: Minnesota Vikings Win

Week 8: @ Kansas City Chiefs (London Game) Loss

Week 9: BYE WEEK

Week 10: @ Green Bay Packers Loss

Week 11: Oakland Raiders Win

Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles Win

Week 13: Green Bay Packers (TNF) Win

Week 14: @ St. Louis Rams Win

Week 15: @ New Orleans Saints Win

Week 16: San Francisco 49'ers Win

Week 17: @ Chicago Bears Win

I can't quite believe it came to this, but I say 12-4, with wins the last seven weeks. I'm pretty sure by week 8, this'll be blown to hell, but I gotta stick with it.

Holy crap, was I naive. This is excruciating. There's no evidence, no reason to believe that what we're seeing isn't what we should expect the rest of the way. I know it's early but this feels eerily similar to 2008. Wow, has this team squandered talent like no organization I've ever seen.

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