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Mr.TaterSalad

Detroit Lions 2015 Predictions Thread

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12-4. The Lions brush off the loss of Suh, hold steady with their defense, and with a markedly improved offense return to the postseason for their first playoff win since 1991.*

*None of this is true

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I mean, we're talking a rookie replacing a 10 sack guy, on a defense that was ranked 31st(28th in scoring, 20th on PFF). I don't think I'm that crazy to not like their roster much considering their offense lost more talent than it gained and got another year older(yes I realize every team did that,lol). I realize we played a 1 point game and to be honest, a team with a QB like Brees has a shot in any game. Was just slightly surprised that's the one you picked.

Fwiw I did probably under credit the Rams, but I don't think a power running team is going to fare as well against us as high powered, spread the field type passing teams will so they surprised me a bit as well.

Speaking of PFF points, Stafford is where we need to make our major improvement. He was basically a +13 3 years in a row and a -9.4 last year. I'm hoping for a significant improvement(20-30 range), but a regression to the mean even would be huge.

The reason I picked the Saints to win isn't because of their defense. It's more so due to our weakened defense (less pass rush, Math is not looking good early on) and the fact the game is on the road. Likewise, I picked the Rams to win because I think their DL will abuse our OL and the game is also on the road.

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The reason I picked the Saints to win isn't because of their defense. It's more so due to our weakened defense (less pass rush, Math is not looking good early on) and the fact the game is on the road. Likewise, I picked the Rams to win because I think their DL will abuse our OL and the game is also on the road.

Interesting. I don't see anyone abusing our OL this year. Not saying we will abuse everyone, but they look strong in the preseason, without Waddle(lead RTs in blown blocks per play last year) and Warford for the most important game for starters. If you aren't sold so be it though.

and mostly I just thought it was funny that you felt comfortable talking up the Saints D and projecting rookies to fill in when you would never do such a thing with the Lions.

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Interesting. I don't see anyone abusing our OL this year. Not saying we will abuse everyone, but they look strong in the preseason, without Waddle(lead RTs in blown blocks per play last year) and Warford for the most important game for starters. If you aren't sold so be it though.

and mostly I just thought it was funny that you felt comfortable talking up the Saints D and projecting rookies to fill in when you would never do such a thing with the Lions.

You seem to put quite a bit of importance on meaningless games against teams that will all assuredly be lottery teams. I wouldn't personally draw any opinions based on, at max, 3 quarters where starters were in against awful looking teams.

I don't think I ever "talked up" the Saints defense, you said they lost a double digit sack guy without replacing him and I mentioned that we lost three guys with significantly above average pass rush productivity and replaced them with much lesser pass rushers. I don't think at any point I "talked them up", and I didn't project a rookie to do anything; I explicitly said that he is an unknown (true statement), led all of college in sacks (true statement), and has looked good in the preseason thus far (opinion based on PFF where he has a +1.7 rating and various reports).

The guys who make me worry on our OL are Swanson who struggled last year, Tomlinson (who like Kikaha is an unkown), their inability to stay healthy, and the continued struggles of Lucas who may get extended playing time due to Waddle not being able to stay on the field. Reiff is pretty average to slightly above average and Warford is a stud, the rest of the line is one big question mark.

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...the rest of the line is one big question mark.

but at least with Raiola gone it can be a big question mark instead of an undersized one.

:laugh:

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You seem to put quite a bit of importance on meaningless games against teams that will all assuredly be lottery teams. I wouldn't personally draw any opinions based on, at max, 3 quarters where starters were in against awful looking teams.

I don't think I ever "talked up" the Saints defense, you said they lost a double digit sack guy without replacing him and I mentioned that we lost three guys with significantly above average pass rush productivity and replaced them with much lesser pass rushers. I don't think at any point I "talked them up", and I didn't project a rookie to do anything; I explicitly said that he is an unknown (true statement), led all of college in sacks (true statement), and has looked good in the preseason thus far (opinion based on PFF where he has a +1.7 rating and various reports).

The guys who make me worry on our OL are Swanson who struggled last year, Tomlinson (who like Kikaha is an unkown), their inability to stay healthy, and the continued struggles of Lucas who may get extended playing time due to Waddle not being able to stay on the field. Reiff is pretty average to slightly above average and Warford is a stud, the rest of the line is one big question mark.

the bold vs your first paragraph is my larger point. You get to mention what Kikaha did in preseason or college but doing so about a Lion is simply always frowned upon by you. For the record, I don't think anything you have said is "wrong", you simply choose to always take the most negative view on any Lions related topic and its hard to not comment on at this point.

I don't put a ton of stock in the preseason, but

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the bold vs your first paragraph is my larger point. You get to mention what Kikaha did in preseason or college but doing so about a Lion is simply always frowned upon by you. For the record, I don't think anything you have said is "wrong", you simply choose to always take the most negative view on any Lions related topic and its hard to not comment on at this point.

I don't put a ton of stock in the preseason, but

At what point was I overly negative? I predicted the lions go 8-8, I explained why I thought they would lose two games you questioned. I never said the OL was going to be awful, I said the young, oft-injured OL may struggle against the #1 DL in the league that got even more talented in the offseason (Fairley). And then I mentioned that you were quick to disregard the Saints defense because they lost one 10 sack guy, without mentioning anything about the Lions losing three above average pass rushers with one being one of the top 2-3 DT in the league.

Yes, I mentioned one PFF stat but prefaced the entire thing with the fact that he is an unknown, did you do the same with the Lions OL? I'm not using the stat to suggest he is going to be above average, or anything of the sort...I don't think our uses of the preseason are similar in the least. I also would have no problem giving Lions rookies credit for what they did in college or the preseason (as that is all we have to go on this far) but none of them outside of Abdullah have done much of note. Their draft last year is looking downright awful and again outside of Abdullah and possibly Tomlinson, who hasn't wowed me based on his draft position,who is there to be impressed with? Zenner? I'm excited about Abdullah, but outside of him there has been no one of note the last two years, drafting has been a real Achilles heel with this team for a long time.

Edit:

Case in point, here are all the PFF rankings during the preseason of the rookies this year and our sophomore class:

Corey Robinson: +3.8

T.J Jones: +0.9

Eric Ebron (24 plays): +0.9 (-6.5 last season)

Caraun Reid (18 plays): +0.4 (-4.1 last season)

Laken Tomlinson: +0.1

Ameer Abdullah: -0.6

Kyle Van Noy: -1.9 (-0.7 last year)

Larry Webster: -2.5

Quandre Diggs: -3.1

Travis Swanson: -3.3 (-11.1 last year)

Nevin Lawson: -3.9 (-1.7 last year)

Gabe Wright: -4.8

Simply not a lot to get excited about there, in my opinion.

Edited by EchO

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To be fair Calvin and Tulloch didn't play in the Saints game last year, so I don't think we should use last years game as any barometer on what might happen this year.

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Week 1: @ San Diego Chargers loss

Week 2: @ Minnesota Vikings win

Week 3: Denver Broncos (Primetime Game NBC) win

Week 4: @ Seattle Seahawks (MNF ESPN) loss

Week 5: Arizona Cardinals win

Week 6: Chicago Bears win

Week 7: Minnesota Vikings win

Week 8: @ Kansas City Chiefs (London Game) loss

Week 9: BYE WEEK

Week 10: @ Green Bay Packers loss

Week 11: Oakland Raiders win

Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles loss

Week 13: Green Bay Packers (TNF) win

Week 14: @ St. Louis Rams loss

Week 15: @ New Orleans Saints loss

Week 16: San Francisco 49'ers win

Week 17: @ Chicago Bears win

9-7

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To be fair Calvin and Tulloch didn't play in the Saints game last year, so I don't think we should use last years game as any barometer on what might happen this year.

This is fair, and something I totally forgot about. I'm still not picking them to win the game, but it's a fair point none the less.

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Week 1: @ San Diego Chargers loss

Week 2: @ Minnesota Vikings win

Week 3: Denver Broncos (Primetime Game NBC) win

Week 4: @ Seattle Seahawks (MNF ESPN) loss

Week 5: Arizona Cardinals win

Week 6: Chicago Bears win

Week 7: Minnesota Vikings win

Week 8: @ Kansas City Chiefs (London Game) loss

Week 9: BYE WEEK

Week 10: @ Green Bay Packers loss

Week 11: Oakland Raiders win

Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles loss

Week 13: Green Bay Packers (TNF) win

Week 14: @ St. Louis Rams loss

Week 15: @ New Orleans Saints loss

Week 16: San Francisco 49'ers win

Week 17: @ Chicago Bears win

9-7

Watch out...picking those two losses are essentially fighting words.

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At what point was I overly negative? I predicted the lions go 8-8, I explained why I thought they would lose two games you questioned. I never said the OL was going to be awful, I said the young, oft-injured OL may struggle against the #1 DL in the league that got even more talented in the offseason (Fairley). And then I mentioned that you were quick to disregard the Saints defense because they lost one 10 sack guy, without mentioning anything about the Lions losing three above average pass rushers with one being one of the top 2-3 DT in the league.

Yes, I mentioned one PFF stat but prefaced the entire thing with the fact that he is an unknown, did you do the same with the Lions OL? I'm not using the stat to suggest he is going to be above average, or anything of the sort...I don't think our uses of the preseason are similar in the least. I also would have no problem giving Lions rookies credit for what they did in college or the preseason (as that is all we have to go on this far) but none of them outside of Abdullah have done much of note. Their draft last year is looking downright awful and again outside of Abdullah and possibly Tomlinson, who hasn't wowed me based on his draft position,who is there to be impressed with? Zenner? I'm excited about Abdullah, but outside of him there has been no one of note the last two years, drafting has been a real Achilles heel with this team for a long time.

Edit:

Case in point, here are all the PFF rankings during the preseason of the rookies this year and our sophomore class:

Corey Robinson: +3.8

T.J Jones: +0.9

Eric Ebron (24 plays): +0.9 (-6.5 last season)

Caraun Reid (18 plays): +0.4 (-4.1 last season)

Laken Tomlinson: +0.1

Ameer Abdullah: -0.6

Kyle Van Noy: -1.9 (-0.7 last year)

Larry Webster: -2.5

Quandre Diggs: -3.1

Travis Swanson: -3.3 (-11.1 last year)

Nevin Lawson: -3.9 (-1.7 last year)

Gabe Wright: -4.8

Simply not a lot to get excited about there, in my opinion.

I guess this is my basic point. I was putting too much stock in the preseason when I brought up a positive from PFF regarding our OL and their grade, but you have no problem using it to not be excited about our young players. Doesn't really matter in the end, I probably got overly frustrated. We shall see how the season goes.

One thing we can probably agree on, we need to see more from Swanson against the run particularly.

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I'll take a stab.

@ Chargers Win

@ Vikings Win

Broncos Win

@ Seahawks Loss

Cardinals Win

Bears Win

Vikings Win

@ Chiefs Win

BYE

@ Packers Loss

Raiders Win

Eagles Loss

Packers Win

@ Rams Win

@ Saints Win

49'ers Win

@ Bears Win

13-3

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Edit:

Case in s far) but none of them outside of Abdullah have done much of note. Their draft last year is looking downright awful and again outside of Abdullah and possibly Tomlinson, who hasn't wowed me based on his draft position,who is there to be impressed with? Zenner? I'm excited about point, here are all the PFF rankings during the preseason of the rookies this year and our sophomore class:

Corey Robinson: +3.8

T.J Jones: +0.9

Eric Ebron (24 plays): +0.9 (-6.5 last season)

Caraun Reid (18 plays): +0.4 (-4.1 last season)

Laken Tomlinson: +0.1

Ameer Abdullah: -0.6

Kyle Van Noy: -1.9 (-0.7 last year)

Larry Webster: -2.5

Quandre Diggs: -3.1

Travis Swanson: -3.3 (-11.1 last year)

Nevin Lawson: -3.9 (-1.7 last year)

Gabe Wright: -4.8

Simply not a lot to get excited about there, in my opinion.

I see where you're coming from, but it's also limited data to draw conclusions from. So while you may not have a bunch to be excited about, I don't see how you can be negative about most of them after only a few pre season games. I'd hold off on judging most of these guys until you see them playing some meaningful downs.

Pre-season football is the worst.

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PFF grades preseason? That's freakin hilarious. I suppose the only thing more vacuous would be regarding it as relevant. To anything

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@ Chargers Win

@ Vikings Win

Broncos Win

@ Seahawks Loss

Cardinals Win

Bears Win

Vikings Win

@ Chiefs Win

BYE

@ Packers Win

Raiders Win

Eagles Loss

Packers Win

@ Rams Loss

@ Saints Win

49'ers Win

@ Bears Win

13-3

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Week 1: @ San Diego Chargers loss

Week 2: @ Minnesota Vikings win

Week 3: Denver Broncos (Primetime Game NBC) win

Week 4: @ Seattle Seahawks (MNF ESPN) loss

Week 5: Arizona Cardinals win

Week 6: Chicago Bears win

Week 7: Minnesota Vikings win

Week 8: @ Kansas City Chiefs (London Game) loss

Week 9: BYE WEEK

Week 10: @ Green Bay Packers loss

Week 11: Oakland Raiders win

Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles loss

Week 13: Green Bay Packers (TNF) win

Week 14: @ St. Louis Rams loss

Week 15: @ New Orleans Saints loss

Week 16: San Francisco 49'ers win

Week 17: @ Chicago Bears win

9-7

Pessimist.

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I guess this is my basic point. I was putting too much stock in the preseason when I brought up a positive from PFF regarding our OL and their grade, but you have no problem using it to not be excited about our young players. Doesn't really matter in the end, I probably got overly frustrated. We shall see how the season goes.

One thing we can probably agree on, we need to see more from Swanson against the run particularly.

I don't put much stock in the preseason, but in regards to rookies it is all we have to go off of other than practice reports which are even more useless. If there is ever a case when I put any stock in preseason numbers it's in regards to rookies who have zero other professional experience to go off of. I brought up those numbers to show that our players with the least amount of professional experience (rookies and sophomores) had poor seasons last year (sophomores) and struggled again in the preseason (rookies and sophomores), now I don't think this means they have no shot of success in the future but it also doesn't give me much to be excited about.

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@ Chargers Win

@ Vikings Win

Broncos Win

@ Seahawks Loss

Cardinals Win

Bears Win

Vikings Win

@ Chiefs Win

BYE

@ Packers Win

Raiders Win

Eagles Loss

Packers Win

@ Rams Loss

@ Saints Win

49'ers Win

@ Bears Win

13-3

One of these years youre going to be right and we'll all be happy.

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I see where you're coming from, but it's also limited data to draw conclusions from. So while you may not have a bunch to be excited about, I don't see how you can be negative about most of them after only a few pre season games. I'd hold off on judging most of these guys until you see them playing some meaningful downs.

Pre-season football is the worst.

I started this whole debate stating that preseason is meaningless. But when it's all you have to go off of in regards to rookies, it has some very limited uses. I only brought up the PFF grades because Nas said I don't use PFF grades or college accolades to get excited about Lions rookies and I listed the grades to show that they haven't been successful even in meaningless games so, thus far, there isn't much to be excited about.

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If stafford makes the leap they could win a playoff game this year.

That's going to be the key. I'd like to see us scoring 30 points a game personally.

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That's going to be the key. I'd like to see us scoring 30 points a game personally.

That would certainly be nice, it would also make us one of the top one or two offenses in the league...last year only the Patriots scored more then 30 points per game with 30.4. Seem like fairly lofty expectations and would be a significant jump from the 20.1 we averaged last year.

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That would certainly be nice, it would also make us one of the top one or two offenses in the league...last year only the Patriots scored more then 30 points per game with 30.4. Seem like fairly lofty expectations and would be a significant jump from the 20.1 we averaged last year.

30 is a big ask, but 25 should be about the bottom end of acceptable output for that unit. They have the talent at the skill positions to put up 30. If the line holds up, they should get close.

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30 is a big ask, but 25 should be about the bottom end of acceptable output for that unit. They have the talent at the skill positions to put up 30. If the line holds up, they should get close.

Fully agreed. I'd expect somewhere around 28 points a game.

We have plenty of tools and I expect Stafford to put up Andrew Luck numbers.

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