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DETROIT DILEMMA: REBUILD OR RELOAD?

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He actually has walked some this year. I think if you give him proper credit for his fielding, he's a 2.0 WAR player, like him or not.

At any rate, what he's been is not that relevant anymore, it's what he will be.

OK, well by that standard I guess any player could turn out amazing.

It's true that Gose has walked more in the 2nd half, he's also on pace for like 170 strikeouts in a full season (with a 75ish walk pace) in that time. And he's hit .227/.321/.360 during that time. high strikeouts + low power doesn't work even if you do walk at an average rate.

For the season he's at 38 walks vs 120 strikeouts with a .377 slugging and a 66.67% steal rate. Oh Boy.

He now has 1000 PAs at the MLB level, in which he's hit .245/.311/.377

He had around 3000 minor league PAs in which he hit .259/.334/.381 and that is artificially inflated by the fact about 500 of those were in the joke PCL. He had back to back .652 and .651 OPS seasons in the more normal international league before coming to MLB.

Yes, he's only going to be 25, and he's fast, and he has shown some ability to draw a walk in the past. It's possible he'll improve. But he has a loooong track record of not being able to hit.

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This I think supports the theory I've had about the FO under DD for many years....they had an owner who was in WIN NOW mode, prioritizing big spending and loyalty bet contracts (wouldn't be surprised if the JV contract was a "get it done" order from Illitch, and I'm pretty sure the big post-2006 contracts were the same story). That philosophy can (and did) work over time, as long as the owner remains committed to maintaining a large payroll.

I still think Ilitch was in crotchety old owner mode when he got rid of Dombrowski. I still think it was a bad move, but might be redeemable if Avila can step up big time.

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Was there ever a more drug induced quick fix than signing Fielder? No, it's not your money. You love it when they spend money. Line up the free agents. Sign them all. Isn't your money, doesn't matter how old they are. As long as the Tigers have all the players to win now is all that matters. Doesn't matter to you it seems what they do long term.

The two years with Fielder produced a World Series berth and an ALC collapse that should have resulted in a championship.

I don't understand the logic of blowing it up when your committed to a 120 million dollar payroll. What's the point?? You already have an expensive team.

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OK, well by that standard I guess any player could turn out amazing.

It's true that Gose has walked more in the 2nd half, he's also on pace for like 170 strikeouts in a full season (with a 75ish walk pace) in that time. And he's hit .227/.321/.360 during that time. high strikeouts + low power doesn't work even if you do walk at an average rate.

For the season he's at 38 walks vs 120 strikeouts with a .377 slugging and a 66.67% steal rate. Oh Boy.

He now has 1000 PAs at the MLB level, in which he's hit .245/.311/.377

He had around 3000 minor league PAs in which he hit .259/.334/.381 and that is artificially inflated by the fact about 500 of those were in the joke PCL. He had back to back .652 and .651 OPS seasons in the more normal international league before coming to MLB.

Yes, he's only going to be 25, and he's fast, and he has shown some ability to draw a walk in the past. It's possible he'll improve. But he has a loooong track record of not being able to hit.

In what world do you think reciting a bunch of stats I've already factored into my opinion is going to have any impact on it? Especially minor league stats?

I'm well aware of what he was.

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This I think supports the theory I've had about the FO under DD for many years....they had an owner who was in WIN NOW mode, prioritizing big spending and loyalty bet contracts (wouldn't be surprised if the JV contract was a "get it done" order from Illitch, and I'm pretty sure the big post-2006 contracts were the same story). That philosophy can (and did) work over time, as long as the owner remains committed to maintaining a large payroll.

I still think Ilitch was in crotchety old owner mode when he got rid of Dombrowski. I still think it was a bad move, but might be redeemable if Avila can step up big time.

Not to rehash it but now I'm leaning toward that. Initially I even thought DD wanted to go. But given the wording of the release I think this is right. At some point Ilitch decided he had enough and once he's done with you then he's done (See Anderson, Sparky).

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This I think supports the theory I've had about the FO under DD for many years....they had an owner who was in WIN NOW mode, prioritizing big spending and loyalty bet contracts (wouldn't be surprised if the JV contract was a "get it done" order from Illitch, and I'm pretty sure the big post-2006 contracts were the same story). That philosophy can (and did) work over time, as long as the owner remains committed to maintaining a large payroll.

I still think Ilitch was in crotchety old owner mode when he got rid of Dombrowski. I still think it was a bad move, but might be redeemable if Avila can step up big time.

It cannot work over time when you don't have young talent to fuse with. You cannot have a one way street, in my opinion. That's all I can say about this subject.

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Not to rehash it but now I'm leaning toward that. Initially I even thought DD wanted to go. But given the wording of the release I think this is right. At some point Ilitch decided he had enough and once he's done with you then he's done (See Anderson, Sparky).

Also see Scherzer, Max

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It cannot work over time when you don't have young talent to fuse with. You cannot have a one way street, in my opinion. That's all I can say about this subject.

They drafted and traded young talent for prime-age talent (25 - 28 yrs old) who delivered immediately (re: Cabrera, Fister, Sanchez, Fielder, etc.). That's a totally sustainable model.

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I can understand why folks are talking about Gose's fielding stats, they are crazy-bad compared to where they were before.

But why all of the discussion about his hitting? He's been absolutely fine against RHP this year, a little better than his career averages, and perfectly fine BA and OBP for a plus-D CFer (assuming that he's back to plus D in the future). Who the #!@#$ cares about the 65 PAs he had against LHP?

If any Manager is stupid enough to hit him against LHP, that's the Manager's fault, not Gose's. Hitting-wise he has done his job this year IMHO. His offense has not been the problem. If his defensive stats are to be believed, he must do better there to be worth being a platoon CFer, though.

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They drafted and traded young talent for prime-age talent (25 - 28 yrs old) who delivered immediately (re: Cabrera, Fister, Sanchez, Fielder, etc.). That's a totally sustainable model.

Right... the failure to fill in the gaps now isn't because they "went big". The two things are not mutually exclusive of each other. You can do both. There's nothing you sacrifice in going after top guys that prevents you from still having replacement level players come through the system.

The fact that the Tigers failed to develop those guys isn't because they signed VMart and Prince and extended Cabrera and JV. It's because they aren't good at it. They didn't trade the replacements away.

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Right... the failure to fill in the gaps now isn't because they "went big". The two things are not mutually exclusive of each other. You can do both. There's nothing you sacrifice in going after top guys that prevents you from still having replacement level players come through the system.

The fact that the Tigers failed to develop those guys isn't because they signed VMart and Prince and extended Cabrera and JV. It's because they aren't good at it. They didn't trade the replacements away.

We need new scouts IMO. Someone try to get a few guys from St Louis or San Fran please.

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I can understand why folks are talking about Gose's fielding stats, they are crazy-bad compared to where they were before.

But why all of the discussion about his hitting? He's been absolutely fine against RHP this year, a little better than his career averages, and perfectly fine BA and OBP for a plus-D CFer (assuming that he's back to plus D in the future). Who the #!@#$ cares about the 65 PAs he had against LHP?

If any Manager is stupid enough to hit him against LHP, that's the Manager's fault, not Gose's. Hitting-wise he has done his job this year IMHO. His offense has not been the problem. If his defensive stats are to be believed, he must do better there to be worth being a platoon CFer, though.

Pretty much this.

Gose/Davis tag-teaming CF would have worked out great had that plan been kept to. Instead, Davis faced a lot more RHP than he usually would after the Cespedes trade and the same for Gose with LHP. Gose has hit RHP maybe better than anticipated, and he's hit LHP pretty much like everyone thought he would--he's just had to do it more than we all thought. In the field, it seems his positioning has been very bad at times in that he shades far to much to one side of CF or another. I would think that this should fall back on the coaching as well, and in the future that seems pretty coachable.

As for his lack of success stealing bases, the pickoffs are definitely unacceptable and account for about half of his CS if memory serves. I was torn on keeping him, but with the DFA of Fields it appears there will be no challenger in ST. Bernard could be the plan to replace Raj if Avila is saving all of his pennies for pitching help, and who knows with Moya/Collins and the LF situation.

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I care about Gose offense because he's really really bad and whatever clown we have as manager is likely to bat him leadoff because he runs fast

Given a full season of at bats ONLY AGAINST RHP Anthony Gose would strike out 140 times and that's counting his hot streak to start the year that he's never replicated over any length of time in his career. If you take away the first 150 at bats or so of this year when he hit well almost entirely due to a freakishly high BABIP, Gose is a .300 OBP guy and he's barely above that vs RHP only. He's bad.

And I don't think he's a + defensive CF either, he has good speed but he doesn't use it particularly well. I'd say he's average in the field and well below average at the plate.

He's fine to have on the team as a platoon player batting 9th. Good for him.

.300 OBP (also with 0 power) over his last 300 PAs....

Edited by pyrotigers

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They drafted and traded young talent for prime-age talent (25 - 28 yrs old) who delivered immediately (re: Cabrera, Fister, Sanchez, Fielder, etc.). That's a totally sustainable model.

yup. If you scout, draft and coach well your organization will have the options to do whatever it wants.

Good baseball players have fairly long careers, and you probably only need a core of maybe 12 better than average players to have a playoff team. Bottom line is my guess is that your pipe line only has to produce maybe one player every other year more than than the average pipeline for your team to be able to stay to the top of the standings with some consistency. That is like one additional hit in every 60 draft choices.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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I care about Gose offense because he's really really bad and whatever clown we have as manager is likely to bat him leadoff because he runs fast

Given a full season of at bats ONLY AGAINST RHP Anthony Gose would strike out 140 times and that's counting his hot streak to start the year that he's never replicated over any length of time in his career. If you take away the first 150 at bats or so of this year when he hit well almost entirely due to a freakishly high BABIP, Gose is a .300 OBP guy and he's barely above that vs RHP only. He's bad.

And I don't think he's a + defensive CF either, he has good speed but he doesn't use it particularly well. I'd say he's average in the field and well below average at the plate.

He's fine to have on the team as a platoon player batting 9th. Good for him.

.300 OBP (also with 0 power) over his last 300 PAs....

I think his D is solid. I'm admittedly going against the metrics, tho I've stated my reasons, but we can disagree on that.

Hitting wise, I choose to make my evaluations on the entirety of this year's numbers, age, and what I've seen and heard. Obviously, this is not objective, as it's just one person's opinion, but I believe there's enough evidence to back it up.

I'd really love to get a LF to hit in front of Miggy in the #2 spot, and Ian can bat lead-off if needed and Gose 9th. But, Gose does has a .340 OBP batting lead-off, so I think that shows if you pick and choose your spots, even a clown manager can get value out of him there.

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I care about Gose offense because he's really really bad and whatever clown we have as manager is likely to bat him leadoff because he runs fast

Given a full season of at bats ONLY AGAINST RHP Anthony Gose would strike out 140 times and that's counting his hot streak to start the year that he's never replicated over any length of time in his career. If you take away the first 150 at bats or so of this year when he hit well almost entirely due to a freakishly high BABIP, Gose is a .300 OBP guy and he's barely above that vs RHP only. He's bad.

And I don't think he's a + defensive CF either, he has good speed but he doesn't use it particularly well. I'd say he's average in the field and well below average at the plate.

He's fine to have on the team as a platoon player batting 9th. Good for him.

.300 OBP (also with 0 power) over his last 300 PAs....

Gose v RHP as compared to the average CFer in 2015:

PAs: 404 (397)

BB%: 7.9 (7.4)

K%: 24.5 (19.1)

OBP: 338 (327)

SLG: 399 (411)

OPS: 738 (738)

wRC: 49 (48)

wOBA: 324 (320)

wRC+: 104 (102)

(I didn't select these stats BTW, these just happen to be the stats that show up on the advanced page on Fangraphs)

Pyro, what on earth is the big deal here with his offense against RHP -- again, I realize he sucks against LHP? He's basically middle-of-the-pack across the board, and has a better on-base which is not bad for a leadoff man. I agree he should not be leading off, but a leadoff guy with a 338 on-base is not hurting you. I agree that he's not likely to get a whole lot better at this point.

If his defense isn't plus, then obviously we've got a problem with him as a LH platoon CFer. If the defense is only so-so or worse, then they have to upgrade.

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Heyward and his potential contract has been discussed quite a bit here. An estimate from Cafardo is much more modest...

1. Jason Heyward, RF, Cardinals — There’s no reason to believe the Cardinals won’t make a sincere effort to re-sign him, but they’ll have competition. Heyward is a nice player, but one with a sub-.800 OPS and only 12 homers. He owns a 5.4 WAR, and an outfield defensive WAR at 1.3. What’s he worth? He turned 26 last month so five years, $100 million isn’t out of the realm of possibility. But is he all that? The Yankees, Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Indians, Mariners, and Giants could be suitors.

Nick Cafardo | Sunday Baseball Notes: Now that he’s gone, Ben Cherington’s vision for Red Sox is panning out - The Boston Globe

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Not good that Tigers are not on that list.

Obviously the man of the hour (for 2016 and probably for the balance of Mike Ilitch's tenure as owner) is Avila....I have to say at this point I'm on the fence about his ability to put this together, but leaning towards doubt.

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Obviously the man of the hour (for 2016 and probably for the balance of Mike Ilitch's tenure as owner) is Avila....I have to say at this point I'm on the fence about his ability to put this together, but leaning towards doubt.

He needs time. He shouldn't be forced to make everything work by 2016. It isn't fair to him. I would want to see what he does in 5 years, and evaluate from there.

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