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Tigers to expand analytics under Avila...

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It's absurd to think that the Tigers were so enamored with the new JD due to their superior scouting, yet they only made a move to acquire him after he had been surprisingly released for almost no reason. If they liked him so much due to their traditional scouting, they would have traded a prbnl or cash to Houston during the spring to acquire a guy that was already on a minor league deal.

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Probably any team's scout would have noticed the change he made in his swing if they happened to looking at him closely. Isn't that one of the main things scouts look for in a batter? The Tigers may have been looking at JD more closely because Avila had a past relationship with him. There are lots of guys that make mechanical changes and they don't work. So, is that scouting or good relationships or good fortune?

Wow, the verbal gymnastics are amazing.

J.D. Martinez and Blaine Hardy: the Tigers' version of found money | FOX Sports

"Last summer he got hurt so he ended up not playing the last couple months of the year," Avila said. "So in the wintertime he went to Venezuela and played for Caracas and he put up great numbers. So I said, 'Dave (Dombrowski), let's see if we can get him in a trade.' It didn't work out. So when he goes to spring training and he gets released, well, we jumped on it right away because we had interest in trying to acquire him before that."

Nah, Al only knew of him because he played little league by his house. He kept in touch, but that doesn't count as scouting. They scouted him in Venezuela and they tried to work out a trade, but that doesn't count. Except as bad luck but it's hard to add negative percentages. And getting right in contact with JD after the release and letting him know that they saw him in Venezuela and liked what he was doing and even tried to trade for him probably didn't influence JD to sign at all.

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Wow, the verbal gymnastics are amazing.

.

I don't know about verbal gymnastics. I'm not a very verbal person and I don't try to influence people with my writing. I'm just trying to explain my thoughts. I'm not sure how the rest of your post is related to anything I'm posting, so I won't comment on it.

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you could probably find a lot of cases of mathematicians and statisticians who anticipated what become standard techniques long before their time, the key is simply the availability of *inexpensive* computing power. You could have had a raft of guys in green eyeshades calculating OBA for the hitters in the league with pencils every night in 1915, but no-one ever would have paid for it. Much of the linear algebra we use was worked out long before it was practical to actually use any of it as well.

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I don't know about verbal gymnastics. I'm not a very verbal person and I don't try to influence people with my writing. I'm just trying to explain my thoughts. I'm not sure how the rest of your post is related to anything I'm posting, so I won't comment on it.

I've obliterated your point. Denying that you ever made one is all you have left.

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It's absurd to think that the Tigers were so enamored with the new JD due to their superior scouting, yet they only made a move to acquire him after he had been surprisingly released for almost no reason. If they liked him so much due to their traditional scouting, they would have traded a prbnl or cash to Houston during the spring to acquire a guy that was already on a minor league deal.

The Tigers did make an effort to trade for him and Houston turned them down.

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you could probably find a lot of cases of mathematicians and statisticians who anticipated what become standard techniques long before their time, the key is simply the availability of *inexpensive* computing power. You could have had a raft of guys in green eyeshades calculating OBA for the hitters in the league with pencils every night in 1915, but no-one ever would have paid for it. Much of the linear algebra we use was worked out long before it was practical to actually use any of it as well.

Another thing was getting people to buy into it. Bill James didn't have a lot of computing power when he did his early work, but he was such a good writer that he was able to keep an audience.

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The Tigers did make an effort to trade for him and Houston turned them down.

and then released him instead.

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Wow, the verbal gymnastics are amazing.

J.D. Martinez and Blaine Hardy: the Tigers' version of found money | FOX Sports

Nah, Al only knew of him because he played little league by his house. He kept in touch, but that doesn't count as scouting. They scouted him in Venezuela and they tried to work out a trade, but that doesn't count. Except as bad luck but it's hard to add negative percentages. And getting right in contact with JD after the release and letting him know that they saw him in Venezuela and liked what he was doing and even tried to trade for him probably didn't influence JD to sign at all.

I think the key here is a curiosity to look beyond whatever data you have and to try and get inside what they mean. I don't know if it's so much a matter of being more stat conscious or more scouting conscious as it is having an aptitude for looking for anomalies and outliers that others miss whether they appear in stat sheets or scouting reports. Everyone one has bit of the truth here. I mentioned that JD had been hurt in '13 before. JD had good numbers, then he didn't. Al at least had the curiosity to pursue why, and found a guy that had been written off, probably without anyone really looking closely enough at his case - the people that should have in Houston were put off him because he was in his manager's dog house, and maybe other teams took that as good enough for them, they wanted to use their time and resources on other matters.

Real question for Tiger fans going forward is: Was this just a 'one of' because there happened to be a personal connection, or does Avila (and or his staff) do that kind of extra mile investigation as a matter of mental habit?

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I've obliterated your point. Denying that you ever made one is all you have left.

You have done no such thing. It's just difficult having a civil discussion with you and has been for a while. Time to use the ignore feature for the first time in about five years.

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The Tigers did make an effort to trade for him and Houston turned them down.

I know they did. I'm not sure why I worded it the way I did. My point is they didn't offer all that much obviously, so they couldn't have liked him as must as suggested.

They probably offered a non prospect, ptbnl, or cash. Houston was content to release him for nothing when he was already off the 40 man, so they couldn't have been asking for much. If the Tigers knew about this diamond in the rough, they would have worked something out.

They had a hunch, at most.

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This thread was started almost three years ago. 

Here is a recent article. It says the trackman systems have been in the tigers minor league parks since 2016. So I guess Avila was being pretty forthright about investing in this stuff if there was such a quick turnaround. 

I can’t believe they waited so long for something seemingly so simple. 

http://www.westofwoodward.com/2018/06/the-tigers-are-using-advanced-analytics.html

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That's really great to read - I commend you for finding that and sharing it.  On the other hand, searching for a 3-year-old thread?  I'm worried about you.

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5 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I had it open in my tabs. 

I'd share my other open tabs...but pretty sure I'd be banned.

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11 hours ago, Shelton said:

I had it open in my tabs. 

For three years?  That is both tenacious and revealing about the time between your computer powerdowns.

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33 minutes ago, diaspora04 said:

For three years?  That is both tenacious and revealing about the time between your computer powerdowns.

Just waiting for the right time to be able to post an article from the official website of minor league baseball to illustrate the new regime’s commitment to increased analytics. 

How long will it take to install 472 windows updates?

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12 hours ago, Shelton said:

I had it open in my tabs. 

in my office I have a standard PC, with two monitors, in addition to a laptop I take home every day.  I also have another laptop I use for testing things.

My PC has not been rebooted in 4 weeks.  It's so much quicker to just come in and turn the monitor on and get to work.  I have Skype and there's 15 conversations in there.  I like to keep it like that because it makes me look extremely busy but..... here I am posting.

 

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11 hours ago, Oblong said:

in my office I have a standard PC, with two monitors, in addition to a laptop I take home every day.  I also have another laptop I use for testing things.

My PC has not been rebooted in 4 weeks.  It's so much quicker to just come in and turn the monitor on and get to work.  I have Skype and there's 15 conversations in there.  I like to keep it like that because it makes me look extremely busy but..... here I am posting.

 

I share a cubicle at the community college where I teach part-time.  There is a PC there, with a second monitor beside it.  I don't know how to get work onto the second monitor.

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54 minutes ago, Charles Liston said:

I share a cubicle at the community college where I teach part-time.  There is a PC there, with a second monitor beside it.  I don't know how to get work onto the second monitor.

I assume it is powered but it's just blank? 

For Win10, right click on the desktop, click 'Display Settings'. Two displays should be showing in the 'Display' box but one will be greyed out. (If monitor two doesn't appear at all, it's maybe powered off or there is no video connection to it). Scroll down the page a bit to 'Multiple Displays'. Choose 'Extend these displays' (or duplicate I suppose if that is what you want). That should put a video feed to monitor #2. You may need to set things like the resolution to match the hardware properly, etc.

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58 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I assume it is powered but it's just blank? 

For Win10, right click on the desktop, click 'Display Settings'. Two displays should be showing in the 'Display' box but one will be greyed out. (If monitor two doesn't appear at all, it's maybe powered off or there is no video connection to it). Scroll down the page a bit to 'Multiple Displays'. Choose 'Extend these displays' (or duplicate I suppose if that is what you want). That should put a video feed to monitor #2. You may need to set things like the resolution to match the hardware properly, etc.

You are so kind.  But I am 66.

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