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Tigers to expand analytics under Avila...

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And the Patriots passed on Tom Brady 7 times before he fell into their lap.

There was certainly a lot of luck involved. Scouting and personal acquaintanceships too. But as lee said, I don't see how "analytics" were involved.

I'm not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me.

I don't think it had much to do with analytics either.

I just don't think it had a lot to do with traditional scouting.

Not sure what the Tom Brady thing means.

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He was a reasonably hyped prospect who had consistently mashed in the minor leagues and been given little chance in MLB

any team with a brain would sign a guy like that to a minor league contract with zero risk

reasonably hyped prospect? i bet his hype had **** to do with analytics.

mashed in minor leagues? there's 20 different guys every year that do this. that's not analytics.

any team would want to sign someone to a minor league deal? again, **** to do with analytics.

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I'm not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me.

I don't think it had much to do with analytics either.

I just don't think it had a lot to do with traditional scouting.

Not sure what the Tom Brady thing means.

the tom brady thing has to do with, "if they really thought JD was going to be that good they would have traded him or claimed him....."

if the patriots knew tom brady was going to be this good they would have taken him in the first round.

You don't have to be perfect with your scouting, you just have to be better than your competition.

I will add that Tigers seem to have been relatively inactive with minor league signings/churning over the bottom of their roster over the years. So the fact that JD was an exception to that.....makes me have little doubt they probably liked the guy more than most teams, and Al Avila/OF opportunity due to Dirks injury probably sealed the deal.

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We recruited 337 using traditional scouting methods. We could have just observed his history on the AOL boards but we watched him in his house on the computer for months.

You're such a loser. You've been getting free drinks off of that story for years.

Off topic but I have a favour to ask. I've gained about 15 pounds lately and all of it is just hanging out over the front of my jeans. Would you be able to tattoo a 6-pack of abs on there for me?

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reasonably hyped prospect? i bet his hype had **** to do with analytics.

mashed in minor leagues? there's 20 different guys every year that do this. that's not analytics.

.

I actually remember him being more hyped by stat guys who thought he should be ranked higher on various prospect lists. He had some really impressive numbers and it wasn't just one year. That likely has nothing to do with why the Tigers signed him, but he did have a good sabermetric resume in the minors.

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Ilitch's organization (and I'm not singling out baseball only) is sort of known for paying on the low end for anyone not in the executive suite.

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You're such a loser. You've been getting free drinks off of that story for years.

Off topic but I have a favour to ask. I've gained about 15 pounds lately and all of it is just hanging out over the front of my jeans. Would you be able to tattoo a 6-pack of abs on there for me?

I hate to say it, but I'd love to see that.

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It would be worth it to get into baseball. I would do it if I was younger and didn't have a family.

I would do it, but I am woefully underqualified. I would honestly need to take about 3-6 months off of my job and forego all social opportunities for a while just to dive into databases, work with R, SQL, Python, and other programming, and the computers I have don't have the power to do the types of things that Major League teams do. The teams are doing very high tech stuff. It's more than just clicking around Baseball Reference for a bit.

Edited by Edman85

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Ilitch's organization (and I'm not singling out baseball only) is sort of known for paying on the low end for anyone not in the executive suite.

I've heard the same thing. Also, unless you are fortunate enough to have tremendous leverage over him, any deal with Illitch will heavily favor him or it won't get done. His reputation, as I've heard, is that he is very difficult to get a fair deal out of.

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I've heard the same thing. Also, unless you are fortunate enough to have tremendous leverage over him, any deal with Illitch will heavily favor him or it won't get done. His reputation, as I've heard, is that he is very difficult to get a fair deal out of.

That's probably one reason why he was able to become a bazillionaire selling $5 pizzas.

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I've heard the same thing. Also, unless you are fortunate enough to have tremendous leverage over him, any deal with Illitch will heavily favor him or it won't get done. His reputation, as I've heard, is that he is very difficult to get a fair deal out of.

I would take less than my fair share to get my foot in the door doing business with a man like him. Eventually he would realize I am worth more. Just like every other partner/boss I have ever had.

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I actually remember him being more hyped by stat guys who thought he should be ranked higher on various prospect lists. He had some really impressive numbers and it wasn't just one year. That likely has nothing to do with why the Tigers signed him, but he did have a good sabermetric resume in the minors.

He hit well in the minors. So do a lot of guys. Go back to the 2011 top 100 prospects and you can probably trade Dixon Machado for 80 of those guys.

The difference with JD is the obvious answer: he changed his swing. That's not saber, that's scouting. DET scouting (and knowing) JD, JD scouting himself.

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He hit well in the minors. So do a lot of guys. Go back to the 2011 top 100 prospects and you can probably trade Dixon Machado for 80 of those guys.

The difference with JD is the obvious answer: he changed his swing. That's not saber, that's scouting. DET scouting (and knowing) JD, JD scouting himself.

I disagree that his stats did not stand out. It's unusual for someone of his his age and track record to get released. I would bet that there was interest in him from several other teams. I don't think anyone is saying sabermetrics was the reason for the signing though. I'm not sure who you are arguing with.

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I disagree that his stats did not stand out. It's unusual for someone of his his age and track record to get released. I would bet that there was interest in him from several other teams. I don't think anyone is saying sabermetrics was the reason for the signing though. I'm not sure who you are arguing with.

The Tigers supposedly tried to trade for him previously, so my guess is that they had scouted him a bit and saw something that they could fix.

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I would do it, but I am woefully underqualified. I would honestly need to take about 3-6 months off of my job and forego all social opportunities for a while just to dive into databases, work with R, SQL, Python, and other programming, and the computers I have don't have the power to do the types of things that Major League teams do. The teams are doing very high tech stuff. It's more than just clicking around Baseball Reference for a bit.

I am much less qualified than you are, of course.

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I'd feel good being a season ticket holder if Edman worked for my team....

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I'd feel good being a season ticket holder if Edman worked for my team....

He's not giving you any freebies.

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He's not giving you any freebies.

But what if Edman recognizes the avatar among the crowd?

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I disagree that his stats did not stand out. It's unusual for someone of his his age and track record to get released. I would bet that there was interest in him from several other teams. I don't think anyone is saying sabermetrics was the reason for the signing though. I'm not sure who you are arguing with.

I'm arguing with you and pyro, silly.

The bizarre paragraph about how traditional scouting spotted JD Martinez when analytics wouldn't have really got me there. So jarring.

Yeah, there wouldn't be just any idiot on a message board like motownsports.com loading up baseball-reference and seeing a guy who hit .332 .394 .548 in the minor leagues and thinking 'hey, I should give that guy a shot'

The Tigers also never would have ended up with J.D. Martinez if they had been relying solely on analytics. Avila knew Martinez as a kid in Miami and never lost touch. So when Martinez was released by the Astros last spring, the Tigers swooped in despite analytics that might have suggested otherwise.

Fifty-three home runs in 234 games later, chalk up a win for traditional scouting.

Oh yeah, I'm sure they did scout him heavily and that it was the main reason they signed him. It just seemed odd to highlight him as a guy who would be missed by merely using analysis, when there are surely players who actually would fit that bill
I think he's arguing that he's not a good example of someone who wouldn't be noticed by an analysis of numbers. Obviously, you need more than numbers. He was failing at the MLB level, but of all the spring training invitee types they have acquired, I'd say that his minor league numbers stood out more than most. Paul needed to write an article about Avila and advanced analytics and you can't write an article about Avila without mentioning JD, so that's what he wrote about even thought he didn't fit that well with the main point.

If the Tigers would have been able to identify J.D. solely on analytics, I would simply like to know what those analytics are. So far the argument is he had good minor league stats, which you and I both know doesn't cut it. If it does cut it, I'll go ahead and write a script that does this and won't even charge Illitch the $20K.

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Drizzle, I never said the Tigers evaluated him solely on statistics and you know that. In fact, I doubt statistics played any significant role in the signing. My point and I believe Pyro's point as well is that JD did have a good statistical track record, good enough for a statistical-minded fan to like the signing without knowing anything about his change in swing. Most of the players who get released and are invited to spring training have such crappy statistics that I wonder what the Tigers see in them. So, it's obviously scouting. In JD's case, my first first thought wasn't why did the Tigers sign him, but why did the Astros release him? Sure they did it for scouting reasons, but I didn't need to hear that before liking the signing.

But you can just keep arguing for the sake of arguing.

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I disagree that his stats did not stand out. It's unusual for someone of his his age and track record to get released. I would bet that there was interest in him from several other teams. I don't think anyone is saying sabermetrics was the reason for the signing though. I'm not sure who you are arguing with.

True though they were more impressive early in his career, but were falling as he moved up and then fell more at MLB. Not hard to see people concluded he had peaked as a AA talent. And I think in the article it's not just stats but the idea of 'advanced' use of stats. I think there are two parts with JD that do work wrt a that' aspect. First, there doesn't seem to be some nugget that a more stat savvy stat evaluator could have found hidden in JD MLB stats to indicate they were a fluke. He didn't have an outlier low BaBIP. His line drive and pull tendencies hadn't shifted much that would indicate there was a simple mechanical or approach reversion to form needed. He just wasn't hitting the ball very hard in 2013, low HR, low HR/FL ratios.

BUT he had had a wrist injury and then he went to Winter Ball and retooled his swing. So this is the second aspect: he tried to become a different player - which goes to the point I tend to come back to, if it's a different player, the past record will lose its predictive power. If you believe he had made a significant break with his past then you have to make your assessment based on observational data because the predictive power of the statistical record is called into question. So in both those aspects I don't think JD is such a bad example if you are trying to talk up Avila as traditional talent evaluator.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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True though they were more impressive early in his career, but were falling as he moved up and then fell more at MLB. Not hard to see people concluded he had peaked as a AA talent. But I think there are two parts that do work wrt the 'non-analytics' aspect . First, there doesn't seem to be some nugget that a more stat savvy stat evaluator was going to find hidden in JD MLB stats to indicate they were a fluke. He didn't have an outlier low BaBIP. His line drive and pull tendencies hadn't shifted much that would indicate there was a simple mechanical or approach reversion to form needed. He just wasn't hitting the ball very hard in 2013, low HR, low HR/FL ratios.

BUT he had had a wrist injury and then he went to Winter Ball and retooled his swing. So this is the second aspect: he tried to become a different player - which goes to the point I tend to come back to, if it's a different player, the past record will lose its predictive power. If you believe he had made a significant break with his past then you have to make your assessment based on observational data because the predictive power of the statistical record is called into question. So in both those aspects I don't think JD is such a bad example if you are trying to talk up Avila as traditional talent evaluator.

What his early records tells me is that he had some talent that he wasn't able to use once he reached the majors. It seems to me that someone like that can be worked with. If another player had mediocre stats all throughout the minors or just had one good year, it makes me think he'll never be good even if they work with him. If I heard that Romine was going to be great because he changed his swing, I wouldn't believe it. If Moya started having more success because he did something different, I'd be more inclined to believe it.

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I think the JD thing was just a quick throw in to enhance the story.... it wasn't meant to be dissected like this. Like the kind of thing you'd make up at a job interview about your work history.

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What his early records tells me is that he had some talent that he wasn't able to use once he reached the majors. It seems to me that someone like that can be worked with. If another player had mediocre stats all throughout the minors or just had one good year, it makes me think he'll never be good even if they work with him. If I heard that Romine was going to be great because he changed his swing, I wouldn't believe it. If Moya started having more success because he did something different, I'd be more inclined to believe it.

That's certainly a fair enough point. But does that represent anything 'advanced' in the application of stats? I'm on a small screen right now and it's not convenient to search back, but someone, maybe not you, called JD a bad or even contradictory example to the point. I would say that is a bit harsh, there are aspects of JDs story that fit the point he was making even if there are points you can question or more depth to the complete story.

I guess I take the conversation more as 'advanced stat techniques' versus old style use of numbers than just 'stats vs scouting' in term of talking about 'advanced analytics'

Edited by Gehringer_2

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