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Tigers to expand analytics under Avila...

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It would be worth it to get into baseball. I would do it if I was younger and didn't have a family.

I would too if I was younger and wasn't already established in a good career. It's more a question of whether they are paying enough to get the best people.

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Does the sub-20K position act as a minion for Menzin, providing support so he can be the really competent saber? Still cheaping out, but maybe means the program is not cheap, just the entry-level position. IDK

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I DM'ed Menzin about that, but it opened up the day I was closing on a mortgage. From the rumors I heard, the pay would not be enough for an '07 graduate, let alone '84 (under $20K/year with no benefits).

LOL. People get more than that for internships at Facebook or Google.

They aren't serious about hiring quality analytic people unless its a six figure offer.

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If a 20-something making $18,000 a year told them that it was a bad idea to sign Joe Nathan and that there was substantial evidence to support that position I doubt they would take it.

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"Kid, I've been in this business for 40 years.... Joe Nathan is a damn good pitcher... now get the hell out of here"

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LOL. People get more than that for internships at Facebook or Google.

They aren't serious about hiring quality analytic people unless its a six figure offer.

I agree the money is laughably low, but that is how it works in baseball. The low pay is not unique to the Tigers or the Avila admin.

And they will no doubt be overwhelmed with resumes from smart kids from top schools, desperate to get into baseball.

I thought the article was interesting. I would never confuse DD for Jeff Luhnow, but I was a little surprised that the Tigers seem closer to the Phillies and Amaro in philosophy than analytical clubs like the Cubs, Red Sox, Jays, etc.

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The bizarre paragraph about how traditional scouting spotted JD Martinez when analytics wouldn't have really got me there. So jarring.

Yeah, there wouldn't be just any idiot on a message board like motownsports.com loading up baseball-reference and seeing a guy who hit .332 .394 .548 in the minor leagues and thinking 'hey, I should give that guy a shot'

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And they will no doubt be overwhelmed with resumes from smart kids from top schools, desperate to get into baseball.

I respectively disagree. Not at that salary. I know for a fact that there are teams that offer substantially more and make offers in line with the market value that you would find in jobs with other billion dollar companies. Menzin makes a decent amount- its just that other teams have multiple analytic people paid at that level.

I can't see a top recent graduate turning down big money offers from Silicon Valley to take a $20 k job with no benefits.

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I respectively disagree. Not at that salary. I know for a fact that there are teams that offer substantially more and make offers in line with the market value that you would find in jobs with other billion dollar companies. Menzin makes a decent amount- its just that other teams have multiple analytic people paid at that level.

I can't see a top recent graduate turning down big money offers from Silicon Valley to take a $20 k job with no benefits.

We pay our interns better than that.

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The bizarre paragraph about how traditional scouting spotted JD Martinez when analytics wouldn't have really got me there. So jarring.

Yeah, there wouldn't be just any idiot on a message board like motownsports.com loading up baseball-reference and seeing a guy who hit .332 .394 .548 in the minor leagues and thinking 'hey, I should give that guy a shot'

Looking the available record, I would think realizing JD deserved another shot probably had more to do with taking a good look at his injury history.

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The bizarre paragraph about how traditional scouting spotted JD Martinez when analytics wouldn't have really got me there. So jarring.

Yeah, there wouldn't be just any idiot on a message board like motownsports.com loading up baseball-reference and seeing a guy who hit .332 .394 .548 in the minor leagues and thinking 'hey, I should give that guy a shot'

yeah, that didn't make much sense to me. I didn't expect much from him, but the one thing that gave me hope was that he good stats in the minors.

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There are probably 29 other teams that would have been happy to offer JD a minor league deal like the Tigers did. Avila's previous relationship caused the signing, not any sort of traditional scouting.

Had the Tigers claimed him on waivers or gave him a major league deal, then I would believe they saw something special in him.

Hell, they had Tyler Collins on the opening day roster ahead of him and he was only called up after Collins had been sent down when they needed an extra reliever.

JD's signing was also a fortunate coincidence when he was released shortly after dirks got hurt late in the spring.

The dirks injury led to them using rajai as an everyday outfielder.

If they knew so much about JD, he would have been up with the team on opening day.

They got lucky.

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I respectively disagree. Not at that salary. I know for a fact that there are teams that offer substantially more and make offers in line with the market value that you would find in jobs with other billion dollar companies. Menzin makes a decent amount- its just that other teams have multiple analytic people paid at that level.

I can't see a top recent graduate turning down big money offers from Silicon Valley to take a $20 k job with no benefits.

I can see it. When you're young and don't have a lot of responsibilities, chasing big money is not always the goal. I would have considered it when I was young. Also, not everybody gets big money offers or any offers for that matter. I got rejected by hundreds of companies for two years before I got any offer at all. I would have applied for a job in baseball for peanuts back then. I wouldn't have wanted to stay at that level for too long, but it would have been a fun experience if nothing else.

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We recruited 337 using traditional scouting methods. We could have just observed his history on the AOL boards but we watched him in his house on the computer for months.

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We recruited 337 using traditional scouting methods. We could have just observed his history on the AOL boards but we watched him in his house on the computer for months.

When MTS offered me a 15-year contract, I wasn't going to turn it down. Not their brightest move ever. If they had any understanding of advanced analytics, they would have seen that I was already on the decline.

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In fairness to the Tigers, there was a heavy scouting component to the Martinez acquisition. The Tigers scouted him extensively during winter ball that year, identifying the mechanical changes he had made. The changes hadn't truly clicked in game action at the time if his release and the Tigers had been encouraged by what they saw over the winter. From there, Avila's relationship played a role, I'm sure.

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In fairness to the Tigers, there was a heavy scouting component to the Martinez acquisition. The Tigers scouted him extensively during winter ball that year, identifying the mechanical changes he had made. The changes hadn't truly clicked in game action at the time if his release and the Tigers had been encouraged by what they saw over the winter. From there, Avila's relationship played a role, I'm sure.

Oh yeah, I'm sure they did scout him heavily and that it was the main reason they signed him. It just seemed odd to highlight him as a guy who would be missed by merely using analysis, when there are surely players who actually would fit that bill

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Oh yeah, I'm sure they did scout him heavily and that it was the main reason they signed him. It just seemed odd to highlight him as a guy who would be missed by merely using analysis, when there are surely players who actually would fit that bill

Are you arguing that mere analysis would have picked him out? What in particular? 88 games in AA his 2nd time around? The .130 ISO with Houston?

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I don't doubt the Tigers scouted JD, and I'm sure a lot of other teams did too. JD's swing changes weren't a secret. He was eligible for the rule 5 draft and the subject of a fangraphs article calling him a rule 5 dark horse based on those swing changes.

He went unclaimed in the rule 5 draft, after going unclaimed on waivers before that.

I also seem to recall that the Tigers and Astros discussed a trade for him prior to his release but that they couldn't agree. I doubt the Astros were asking for much.

If the Tigers truly thought JD was something special, they had a lot of opportunities to get him for peanuts before he became a free agent. It wouldn't have even required a 40 man spot.

I'm sure there were reasons for optimism, but they just couldn't have liked him that much given how close they came to NOT getting him.

If dirks doesn't get hurt in March, I doubt they would have signed him. With Collins slated for Detroit that opened up a spot in Toledo. Sounds silly, I know.

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Are you arguing that mere analysis would have picked him out? What in particular? 88 games in AA his 2nd time around? The .130 ISO with Houston?

I think he's arguing that he's not a good example of someone who wouldn't be noticed by an analysis of numbers. Obviously, you need more than numbers. He was failing at the MLB level, but of all the spring training invitee types they have acquired, I'd say that his minor league numbers stood out more than most. Paul needed to write an article about Avila and advanced analytics and you can't write an article about Avila without mentioning JD, so that's what he wrote about even thought he didn't fit that well with the main point.

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Analytics is way too broad of a term. Everyone uses numbers. I heard Jeff Luhnow say that the next frontier is psychology, nutrition, and injury prevention. All teams get statcast and fangraphs. This will hopefully have more of an impact on their drafting and development.

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I don't doubt the Tigers scouted JD, and I'm sure a lot of other teams did too. JD's swing changes weren't a secret. He was eligible for the rule 5 draft and the subject of a fangraphs article calling him a rule 5 dark horse based on those swing changes.

He went unclaimed in the rule 5 draft, after going unclaimed on waivers before that.

I also seem to recall that the Tigers and Astros discussed a trade for him prior to his release but that they couldn't agree. I doubt the Astros were asking for much.

If the Tigers truly thought JD was something special, they had a lot of opportunities to get him for peanuts before he became a free agent. It wouldn't have even required a 40 man spot.

I'm sure there were reasons for optimism, but they just couldn't have liked him that much given how close they came to NOT getting him.

If dirks doesn't get hurt in March, I doubt they would have signed him. With Collins slated for Detroit that opened up a spot in Toledo. Sounds silly, I know.

And the Patriots passed on Tom Brady 7 times before he fell into their lap.

There was certainly a lot of luck involved. Scouting and personal acquaintanceships too. But as lee said, I don't see how "analytics" were involved.

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Analytics is way too broad of a term.

I consider it to be a buzz word that doesn't have a specific meaning. I don't really like it and don't use it much. I was using it here to mean scientific logic/analysis versus scouting.

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Are you arguing that mere analysis would have picked him out? What in particular? 88 games in AA his 2nd time around? The .130 ISO with Houston?

He was a reasonably hyped prospect who had consistently mashed in the minor leagues and been given little chance in MLB

any team with a brain would sign a guy like that to a minor league contract with zero risk

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