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Won't they lose their second and third pick if they sign certain free agents?

Only if they are qualified. I think there will be fewer offers, especially with the jump going from 14.1 to 16 million.

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Only if they are qualified. I think there will be fewer offers, especially with the jump going from 14.1 to 16 million.

The QO jump is indexed to the salaries in the game, so I doubt the jump will affect the amount of offers this year. What will affect the amount of offers is the fact that so many top guys were traded.

p.s., the QO was $15.3M last year, not 14.1.

2012: 13.3

2013: 14.1

2014: 15.3

2015: ?

Upton, Heyward, Zimmermann, Gordon, Greinke (?), Samardzija, Chris Davis, Kendrick, Gallardo are your quick and dirty QO guys.

Edited by Edman85

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A couple weeks ago, I thought a top 10 pick was a longshot. Now, the 8th pick is starting to look like the floor. Oakland is pretty bad at 7, but the way the team has been playing, they have a realistic shot at their highest overall pick since Andrew Miller at 6 in 06.

Even if they do get that protected pick, I'd still love to see them stay away from the QO guys and hold onto the 2nd rounder.

For Heyward or Greinke, sure. If Upton or Gordon or Zimmerman or Samardizja come cheaper than expected bc of the QO, they’d be nice too, but I really hope they can find quality alternatives.

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So do you only lose a pick for signing QO guys? Did they do away with that Tier A and Tier B system of free agents? I should know this but am too lazy to look it up.

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Yes they did away with Type A and Type B.

I laughed at weighing a 1st round pick when signing a guy but I am relenting on that if the team gets a top 10 pick but then risks losing their next 2. I'm not sure a QO guy would be worth that loss of picks.... guess we'll have to see the list of guys eligible to know for sure.

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Yes they did away with Type A and Type B.

I laughed at weighing a 1st round pick when signing a guy but I am relenting on that if the team gets a top 10 pick but then risks losing their next 2. I'm not sure a QO guy would be worth that loss of picks.... guess we'll have to see the list of guys eligible to know for sure.

I think they would only lose 1 pick per guy signed. So they sign Grienke - 2nd rd. They then sign Upton - 3rd rd. etc.

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Yes they did away with Type A and Type B.

I laughed at weighing a 1st round pick when signing a guy but I am relenting on that if the team gets a top 10 pick but then risks losing their next 2. I'm not sure a QO guy would be worth that loss of picks.... guess we'll have to see the list of guys eligible to know for sure.

Depends on the pick and the cost. If the net value of a draft pick is $30M and you get a $40M net value on a free agent, you jump at the free agent. I tried to frame this in another thread with a corner scenario, but got accused of straw-manning it. Turning a blind eye to QO free agents is irrational.

In addition, the loss or gain of a pick is also a loss or gain of pool money, which complicates the calculus a little bit.

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Especially compared against the value of a 2nd or especially 3rd round pick, which historically has not bore a lot of fruit.

For example, I can't imagine a typical 3rd round pick (historically) even approaches the value of $1M to the MLB club, even if some prospects have managed to receive that in bonuses after being selected in the 3rd round.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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I think they would only lose 1 pick per guy signed. So they sign Grienke - 2nd rd. They then sign Upton - 3rd rd. etc.

I thought if we get a protected pick, then the first guy we sign doesn't cost us anything, but the team we signed him from gets a sandwich pick. Then if we sign another guy, we lose our second round pick to that team, and so on. But I could be wrong.

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I thought if we get a protected pick, then the first guy we sign doesn't cost us anything, but the team we signed him from gets a sandwich pick. Then if we sign another guy, we lose our second round pick to that team, and so on. But I could be wrong.

You are. No matter when you draft if you sign any QO guy you lose your pick. But, if you are in the top 10 you don't lose your first round pick, you lose the second. If we sign another bye-bye third rounder. For teams outside the top 10 that sign two QO guys they would lose their first and second round picks.

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Yes they did away with Type A and Type B.

I laughed at weighing a 1st round pick when signing a guy but I am relenting on that if the team gets a top 10 pick but then risks losing their next 2. I'm not sure a QO guy would be worth that loss of picks.... guess we'll have to see the list of guys eligible to know for sure.

If you worry about losing your third pick because you've already lost your second pick, you are falling victim to the sunk cost fallacy.

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One more thing about giving up later round picks. The pick you get is always at the back of the first round. Why is this important? In February 2014, the Orioles signed Nelson Cruz to a one year deal, and gave up their third round pick. After the season, they granted him a qualifying offer and ended up getting a higher pick for him, effectively gaining draft value. Now, this system is only in place for another year, and you really can't count on a veteran to be QO-worthy more than a few years, but it is possible to gain draft value by giving up a pick.

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You are. No matter when you draft if you sign any QO guy you lose your pick. But, if you are in the top 10 you don't lose your first round pick, you lose the second. If we sign another bye-bye third rounder. For teams outside the top 10 that sign two QO guys they would lose their first and second round picks.

Thanks. So then if we sign Greinke, the Dodgers get a second round pick at the end of the second round as payback?

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Thanks. So then if we sign Greinke, the Dodgers get a second round pick at the end of the second round as payback?

End of the first

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Lots of good points here. I'll also say that the Tigers have done well in the last 5 years with their 2nd round picks, in some cases better than their first rounder.

2nd Round Picks:

2010: Drew Smyly

2011: James McCann

2012: Jake Thompson

2013: Spencer Turnbull

2014: Kevin Ziomek

2015: Tyler Alexander

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Depends on the pick and the cost. If the net value of a draft pick is $30M and you get a $40M net value on a free agent, you jump at the free agent. I tried to frame this in another thread with a corner scenario, but got accused of straw-manning it. Turning a blind eye to QO free agents is irrational.

In addition, the loss or gain of a pick is also a loss or gain of pool money, which complicates the calculus a little bit.

I recall your corner scenario because you responded to one of my posts accusing me of attaching infinite value to draft picks and used your hypothetical to show how that was wrong. I called it a strawman and stand by that.

If I remember correctly you presented two different free agents who required contracts that were extremely different when considering both length and dollars.

I don't believe the scenario you presented had a lot of value in trying to frame the discussion, as there was an obvious answer to your scenario where everyone would elect to sign the one player even though he cost a draft pick when the only alternative presented was a much higher priced player.

The point that was being discussed (at least by me) when you jumped in with your scenario was whether you would choose to sign a guy with a draft pick attached when there are going to be so many other options that don't require giving up the pick.

For the record, I think it's difficult to assign a monetary value to giving up a draft pick, and I think it's also difficult to determine surplus value when deciding to sign a free agent. It's far from an efficient market because every player is different and attempting to project performance and the monetary value of it even if you can project it accurately is extremely fuzzy.

I think the team should attempt to fill its vacancies first with players that don't require giving up a draft pick.

From an objective standpoint, it is unlikely that any particular pick will provide much value to the major league team, so it's easy to dismiss it as not having a lot of value. But there is also value in having good minor league depth of players with high ceilings, because of the value they can bring in trades. How much is difficult to say with any certainty. So from my perspective I would just assign a pick some sort of value X, and do what I can to retain that value, even if it costs a bit more in free agency dollars.

I don't think free agency dollars are all that valuable to be honest. If there is a tight budget, I think they matter more. But with the amount of money teams are making and owners tending to treat teams more and more like toys like and less and less like profit generating organizations, what does paying an extra 5 million per year or adding an extra year to the contract really mean?

I think an extra prospect chip in that sense carries a lot more qualitative value.

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Lots of good points here. I'll also say that the Tigers have done well in the last 5 years with their 2nd round picks, in some cases better than their first rounder.

2nd Round Picks:

2010: Drew Smyly

2011: James McCann

2012: Jake Thompson

2013: Spencer Turnbull

2014: Kevin Ziomek

2015: Tyler Alexander

I wouldn't be thrilled if they signed a QO guy like Gallardo and that was it. Now, if they sign Alex Gordon or better, I'll gladly give up the 2nd rounder. And at that point I'd wouldn't worry about giving up subsequent 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks for some of the lesser QO guys.

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I wouldn't be thrilled if they signed a QO guy like Gallardo and that was it. Now, if they sign Alex Gordon or better, I'll gladly give up the 2nd rounder. And at that point I'd wouldn't worry about giving up subsequent 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks for some of the lesser QO guys.

Even better... let's say somehow we can afford Cueto & Heyward (extremely unlikely, unless Ilitch says "go for broke & don't worry about the taxes"...) and they agree to contracts with the Tigers:

I certainly would be willing to give up 2nd and 3rd round picks for those two!!!

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Even better... let's say somehow we can afford Cueto & Heyward (extremely unlikely, unless Ilitch says "go for broke & don't worry about the taxes"...) and they agree to contracts with the Tigers:

I certainly would be willing to give up 2nd and 3rd round picks for those two!!!

Indeed. Clearly the contract you sign your acquired player makes a difference. If you give up a 1st rounder and then sign your FA to a one-year deal, even if you get back that sandwich pitch you are in 'system depletion' mode. If you sign the guy for some nice ideal term like 5 yrs that he is likely to be able to play out, then you have to care less about having one less drafted player in the system because you have a spot on your MLB team covered for a relatively long term.

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Also, the number of QO's offered effects the value of the Tigers second pick since many of those QO's will turn into sandwich round picks ahead of detroits 2nd rounder. This could change their draft slot by 5-10 spots. Not a giant change but a change nonetheless. Does anybody know if being pushed down the draft order due to added sandwich round picks would change the size of their draft pool money?

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