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You lose 2nd and 3rd round picks I believe...

That is correct. And only if the players signed were offered qualifying offers. The QO is supposed to jump to about 16 million or so this year.

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Im not so sure we're even going to go after any guy that requires a draft pick. If Illitch decides to really open up his wallet and splurge on an elite pitcher it would probably be Price or Cueto. I don't see him settling for less. For hitters it would probably be Cespedes. If they decide to spread the wealth over a bunch of lesser players I'm not sure that they would even require a pick cause of the increasing q.o.

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That is correct. And only if the players signed were offered qualifying offers. The QO is supposed to jump to about 16 million or so this year.

IF they get a top 10 pick, it'd be an interesting strategy to target multiple guys that were borderline offers whose price might be driven down by the required compensation.

Maybe you can then get 3 guys like Chen, Anderson, Fowler each for around 3/$30M or something, if they receive QOs, and only lose a 2, 3, and 4.

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IF they get a top 10 pick, it'd be an interesting strategy to target multiple guys that were borderline offers whose price might be driven down by the required compensation.

Maybe you can then get 3 guys like Chen, Anderson, Fowler each for around 3/$30M or something, if they receive QOs, and only lose a 2, 3, and 4.

Those players are unlikely to receive qualifying offers. I don't agree with the premise. The Tigers do need to continue to draft well.

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So if I read it correctly... Toronto would not get a comp pick for David Price? The FA has to have been with the team all season.

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So if I read it correctly... Toronto would not get a comp pick for David Price? The FA has to have been with the team all season.

Correct.

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So if I read it correctly... Toronto would not get a comp pick for David Price? The FA has to have been with the team all season.

Likewise, no team will lose a pick for signing Price as a FA

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We are tied for 10th with Cleveland.

The tiebreaker, by the way, is last year's draft position, so the Indians would still have the 10th pick in this scenario.

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Those players are unlikely to receive qualifying offers. I don't agree with the premise. The Tigers do need to continue to draft well.

It is unlikely a 3rd or 4th round pick will make the major leagues, FWIW.

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It is unlikely a 3rd or 4th round pick will make the major leagues, FWIW.

I would bet that both of the Tigers 3rd and 4th from this year make it, and do well. I'm really high on Drew Smith and Kade Scivicque.

I'd rather the Tigers spend more money on a better pitcher like Price or Cueto then take a lesser pitcher that will cost them a pick. Win-win.

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Independent of whether those two do (and do well at that), the larger point still stands.

3rd and 4th round picks as a group make the majors less than 50% of the time.

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I would bet that both of the Tigers 3rd and 4th from this year make it, and do well. I'm really high on Drew Smith and Kade Scivicque.

I'd rather the Tigers spend more money on a better pitcher like Price or Cueto then take a lesser pitcher that will cost them a pick. Win-win.

Win-win. Except for the $200M they'll have spent.

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Independent of whether those two do (and do well at that), the larger point still stands.

3rd and 4th round picks as a group make the majors less than 50% of the time.

Not all stars are first round picks. The Tigers need more picks to be successful, not less. They are thin as it is. I can see your point, but in the Tigers case, they need to build the infrastructure of their team to a point where they have more options, especially at trade deadline time. They need younger depth that will stick around more than they need a short term band-aid.

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So if I read it correctly... Toronto would not get a comp pick for David Price? The FA has to have been with the team all season.

that is right - I forgot about that - so all the guys that got moved before the deadline are free signings. That change in the set-up will only make the bidding hotter.

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I think i expect them to bust the current luxury tax ceiling.

The ceiling is also expected to go up.

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But is it true that the team doesn't lose the pick? From the rules it wasn't clear to me. It refers to 'compensation' and the player being there the full year. Does losing the pick fall under that umbrella?

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But is it true that the team doesn't lose the pick? From the rules it wasn't clear to me. It refers to 'compensation' and the player being there the full year. Does losing the pick fall under that umbrella?

For players that are free agents that haven't been traded in the past year since spring training; if they are tendered as free agents and they turn down the tender offer and sign with a new team, the signing team loses their first round pick, unless their first round is protected within the first 10 picks. Then they would lose their 2nd round, then their 3rd round for each free agent they sign that is tendered. The team that loses the player gains a pick in the comp round after the first round.

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But is it true that the team doesn't lose the pick? From the rules it wasn't clear to me. It refers to 'compensation' and the player being there the full year. Does losing the pick fall under that umbrella?

You only lose a pick if you sign a player that rejected a qualifying offer.

Players acquired midseason cannot be given a qualifying offer to reject, so teams signing them do not give up a pick.

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Not all stars are first round picks.

I am aware of this. That written, most stars were.

A typical draft will have 10-15 good players taken in the first 30 picks. Then another 10-15 good players are taken in the next 300 picks. Then you might have a couple of good players taken after that for the remainder of the draft. Or maybe not even that.

In any event, the likelihood you hit on a pick falls precipitously after the first round.

The Tigers need more picks to be successful, not less.

No, they need more quality players to be successful.

Players can be acquired by other means than by the draft.

They are thin as it is. I can see your point, but in the Tigers case, they need to build the infrastructure of their team to a point where they have more options, especially at trade deadline time. They need younger depth that will stick around more than they need a short term band-aid.

Meaning no disrespect, I get the distinct sense that no matter what state the Tigers are in, you would avocate more draft picks, more prospects.

You seem besotted by them.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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I would bet that both of the Tigers 3rd and 4th from this year make it, and do well. I'm really high on Drew Smith and Kade Scivicque.

How much do you want to bet?

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I am aware of this. That written, most stars were.

A typical draft will have 10-15 good players taken in the first 30 picks. Then another 10-15 good players are taken in the next 300 picks. Then you might have a couple of good players taken after that for the remainder of the draft. Or maybe not even that.

In any event, the likelihood you hit on a pick falls precipitously after the first round.

No, they need more quality players to be successful.

Players can be acquired by other means than by the draft.

Meaning no disrespect, I get the distinct sense that no matter what state the Tigers are in, you would avocate more draft picks, more prospects.

You seem besotted by them.

In addition I think fans forget the development portion, which may be where the defect in the Tigers system lies, rather than the identification of the players upfront. Players don't just arrive the system with a destiny. Sometimes they become MLB players due to the instruction and help they get once in the system. The question isn't simply "Who's good at drafting players" it's "Who's good at developing players" and the draft is one component of that.

I think our numbers of 10-15 for first 30 and the next 300 are high. I'd say 5 and 10 respectively....

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In addition I think fans forget the development portion, which may be where the defect in the Tigers system lies, rather than the identification of the players upfront. Players don't just arrive the system with a destiny. Sometimes they become MLB players due to the instruction and help they get once in the system. The question isn't simply "Who's good at drafting players" it's "Who's good at developing players" and the draft is one component of that.

A good and fair point.

I think our numbers of 10-15 for first 30 and the next 300 are high. I'd say 5 and 10 respectively....

It depends on the definition of a good player.

I mean anyone who was able to contribute something meaningful to a major league team for at least a season. Andy Dirks would qualify for my rough cut, for example.

If you want an All-Star caliber player, then the number is much smaller.

The much maligned Alex Avila will likely to very likely end up one of the ten best players selected in 2008. And if he isn't in the top ten, then he is #12 or something.

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The quick and dirty way for me was just using baseball reference's draft page and sorting by WAR. I really wish you could export an entire year's worth.. maybe you can with a paid subscription.

1st Round of the 2009 MLB June Amateur Draft | Baseball-Reference.com

That's the first round of 2009.

My criteria was 5.0 WAR or greater.

On another note.... I'm sorry but I'm not going to give the Diamondbacks drafting team a lot of credit for picking Paul Goldschmidt with the 246th pick in 2009 I attribute that to either luck or their development staff.... if they somehow magically knew he would be a good pitcher then they're fools for drafting Marc Krauss, Eric Smith, and Matt Helm before him.

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