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So we agree all options are on the board.

For sustaining a long run of major league success, maybe with a seasonal blip here or there? Yes, sign me up, please.

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Oh, sure, that's a possibility. And if it works out that way, fine, but it doesn't.

Looking back at the 2007 draft, the Tigers picked Porcello when they could have picked Todd Frazier or Josh Donaldson who both went later as 1st round supplemental picks and have had higher career WAR. Jordan Zimmerman and Giancarlo Stanton went in the 2nd (before the Tigers selected knuckleballer Danny Worth).

2008 was a bad draft return for the Tigers. Ryan Perry went off of the board to the Tigers before lots of other useful parts were selected (Gerrit Cole, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, Logan Forsythe, etc. Alex Avila (5th round) and Andy Dirks (8th round) were the only MLB players of salvageable value that the Tigers drafted that season.

1. Gerrit Cole didn't sign that year.

2. Avila and Dirks provide ample return for a draft where you are drafting late... Ample. Expecting any more is not realistic.

3. Lynn is solid, and Miley had a solid year or two, and Forsythe was good this year, but I'm not exactly crying over missing out on those guys.

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1. Gerrit Cole didn't sign that year.

2. Avila and Dirks provide ample return for a draft where you are drafting late... Ample. Expecting any more is not realistic.

3. Lynn is solid, and Miley had a solid year or two, and Forsythe was good this year, but I'm not exactly crying over missing out on those guys.

1. That's a good point.

2. I'm not complaining about what the Tigers got from Avila and Dirks for where they were drafted. Pretty pleased with it, actually. I only tossed their names in because they were the only players that provided anything of material value from that draft.

3. I think you missed the point. The Tigers drafted Ryan Perry in the 1st round. They could have had any of those other players that I listed and they would have provided much more value than the Tigers got out of Perry.

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To date, Alex Avila is arguably a top 10 player taken from that draft in terms of MLB production.

I don't doubt some guys will pass Alex as time goes on because I think he is basically done as a player, but I think 2008 was a poor draft overall and the Tigers did ok -> good inside of it.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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1. That's a good point.

2. I'm not complaining about what the Tigers got from Avila and Dirks for where they were drafted. Pretty pleased with it, actually. I only tossed their names in because they were the only players that provided anything of material value from that draft.

3. I think you missed the point. The Tigers drafted Ryan Perry in the 1st round. They could have had any of those other players that I listed and they would have provided much more value than the Tigers got out of Perry.

You can say that for any draft. They also could have had Kyle Lobstein, Jordan Lyles, Brett DeVall, Jaff Decker, or Shooter Hunt.

Here's a little trivia. To date, how many players drafted and signed in the 2008 Draft have had a higher career BR WAR than Alex Avila?

Buster Posey, Brett Lawrie, Brandon Crawford, and Craig Kimbrel.

That draft was a success.

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Most 1st rounders selected in the 2008 draft produced little thus far.

Among all the 1st round + supplemental picks, Perry ranks 24th in BR career WAR. He was selected #21.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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Here's a little trivia. To date, how many players drafted and signed in the 2008 Draft have had a higher career BR WAR than Alex Avila?

Buster Posey, Brett Lawrie, Brandon Crawford, and Craig Kimbrel.

****ing nepotism pick.

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..

Here's a little trivia. To date, how many players drafted and signed in the 2008 Draft have had a higher career BR WAR than Alex Avila?

..

and he may yet put up some more. Now that we have all soundly written him off he is showing signs of life. 380 OBP, 715 OPS in his last ~50PA.

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Players taken in the first round & supplemental round in 2008 after the Tigers selected Perry that have had a significantly better MLB career than Ryan:

Lance Lynn

Wade Miley

Logan Forsythe

Lonnie Chisenhall

Jake Odorizzi

There were 25 players selected after Perry that year in the 1st and supplemental rounds.

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I think he is done, personally, but a LH hitting C has nice value if he is clear of injury concerns.

If he has had some kind of uptick in the condition of his knee or head he is probably going to have do more than he can in the last two weeks to prove it. Winter ball maybe? Though he'd have to arrange to play 1st or 3rd I would think...

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Does he hit enough to justify taking him at 1B?

Can he field 3B well enough to have a job?

I'd think his value is in being a catcher who could play a corner IF position in a pinch.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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Alex would probably sign a cheap one year deal to remain with the team, imo. I think that would be a solid sign to keep the depth there. He always gives a really good at bat.

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Does he hit enough to justify taking him at 1B?

Can he field 3B well enough to have a job?

I'd think his value is being a catcher who could play a corner IF position in a pinch.

I don't mean he'd move there as a career move, just that if he went to winter ball, he would be wise at this point to find a team where he could work on hitting without taking on everyday catching risk.

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You can say that for any draft. They also could have had Kyle Lobstein, Jordan Lyles, Brett DeVall, Jaff Decker, or Shooter Hunt.

Here's a little trivia. To date, how many players drafted and signed in the 2008 Draft have had a higher career BR WAR than Alex Avila?

Buster Posey, Brett Lawrie, Brandon Crawford, and Craig Kimbrel.

That draft was a success.

The problem is that the draft could have been an absolute coup had the Tigers hit on any of the higher draft choices.

I don't know how much of the draft is crapshoot and how much is scientific. It seems like it is more scientific over the years. The knowledge via scouting and technology and sabermetrics et al is so much better now. It might not be fair to go back and look with 20/20 hindsight and objectively examine how the draft occurred. But that 2008 draft raised a lot of eyebrows because the Tigers were seemingly focused on ready made RPs higher up in the draft.

And its fair to question how the rest of the draft would've happened had the Tigers not selected Perry 1st. Perhaps the domino effect of selecting Reese Havens (just to throw a name out) means that Avila gets selected before the Tigers can grab him in the 5th and Dirks is gone before the Tigers grab him in the 8th. It could have ended up worse.

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Alex would probably sign a cheap one year deal to remain with the team, imo. I think that would be a solid sign to keep the depth there. He always gives a really good at bat.

Alex and his agent agent will likely be looking for a not so cheap deal to be a starting catcher for another team with guaranteed money for several years before he would consider resigning with the Tigers for a "cheap one year deal" where it looks like Alex would be destine to playing the back up roll for one year and then bye.

And Alex's "always good bat" is hitting .167 with a .632 OPS for 2015.

Avila's OPS has been dropping every year:

2011 .895

2012 .736

2013 .693

2014 .686

2015 .632

If you want Avila back because he's a good defensive catcher, good at pitch framing, a good game caller, has the best beard on the team, has the coolest father/GM in the game today,...ok,...I'm in. But not because he "always has a good bat",....meh,...not so much.

Edited by STLTiger69

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Alex and his agent agent will likely be looking for a not so cheap deal to be a starting catcher for another team with guaranteed money for several years before he would consider resigning with the Tigers for a "cheap one year deal" where it looks like Alex would be destine to playing the back up roll for one year and then bye.

And Alex's "always good bat" is hitting .167 with a .408 OPS for 2015.

Avila's OPS has been dropping every year:

2011 .895

2012 .736

2013 .693

2014 .686

2015 .632

If you want Avila back because he's a good defensive catcher, good at pitch framing, a good game caller, has the best beard on the team, has the coolest father/GM in the game today,...ok,...I'm in. But not because he "always has a good bat",....meh,...not so much.

You misquoted me. I said he always gives a good at bat. Big difference.

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Given his bat is so bad and the obvious injury risks, who is going to give Alex Avila several years?

I'd guess *at best* he gets a 2-year offer.

I'll go with the nepotism theme and guess that Alex Avila is a player/manager for the Tigers next season.

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Given his bat is so bad and the obvious injury risks, who is going to give Alex Avila several years?

I'd guess at best he gets is a 2-year offer.

I'm not thinking he'll do better than 2-3 years at say $3-$5M per. But that's better than 1 year at $1M to $2M the Tigers would probably give to a back up catcher anyway. I have a feeling like Boston or possibly Texas might want to be more generous when looking for catching options than the Tigers will be...

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You misquoted me. I said he always gives a good at bat. Big difference.

Sorry, I though you meant Avila gave good results with that bat, not just looked "good" while making an out and crippling his team offensively. Totally my mistake then,....

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I'm not thinking he'll do better than 2-3 years at say $3-$5M per. But that's better than 1 year at $1M to $2M the Tigers would probably give to a back up catcher anyway. I have a feeling like Boston or possibly Texas might want to be more generous when looking for catching options than the Tigers will be...

I struggle to see him getting more than 2 years, $8M.

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The problem is that the draft could have been an absolute coup had the Tigers hit on any of the higher draft choices.

I don't know how much of the draft is crapshoot and how much is scientific. It seems like it is more scientific over the years. The knowledge via scouting and technology and sabermetrics et al is so much better now. It might not be fair to go back and look with 20/20 hindsight and objectively examine how the draft occurred. But that 2008 draft raised a lot of eyebrows because the Tigers were seemingly focused on ready made RPs higher up in the draft.

And its fair to question how the rest of the draft would've happened had the Tigers not selected Perry 1st. Perhaps the domino effect of selecting Reese Havens (just to throw a name out) means that Avila gets selected before the Tigers can grab him in the 5th and Dirks is gone before the Tigers grab him in the 8th. It could have ended up worse.

2008 was a crap-shoot, IMO.

Round 2 had nothing of significant value.

Round 3 only had Craig Kimbrel, and he is a reliever.

I hated the 'draft relievers' strategy and remember posting about it at the time, but taking it all in I don't think it hurt the Tigers because the alternatives, overall, weren't any better.

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