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No one disagrees with this.

Everyone's point is that if it comes down to it, adding a good free agent at the cost of a second round pick is at least a defensible move and shouldn't be dismissed out of like you are doing.

Sure, if you've got a pair of similar players with similar demands and one doesn't require a draft pick, then of course defer to the guy without a draft pick attached.

Fine with me, but I'm against using free agency as a crutch to save us. The Tigers need a lot of pitching, and hitting/positional help.

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With (about) 12 games to go, it looks like the Tigers are pretty locked into the 8th position for next year's draft. I can see a couple of prep arms, and some interesting prep outfielders available. Pitching looks to be better than last year's draft. I would prefer an advanced college arm with good command like an Aaron Nola, but the two top college guys (Alec Hansen and A.J. Puk) will probably be long gone, but that's a while away.

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Of course if you draft and scout well, it solves both problems: you can more easily afford to give up one guy in a trade or F/A deal; you are also less likely to need to make as many trade or F/A deals.

Is there a problem with development within the organization? I mean, I understand that the Tigers have had the later picks in each round the last few seasons based on standings, so in theory they are getting the leftovers in each round. But can't this be made up for somewhat by some combination of international scouting & signing, and then development of what players are in the system?

Houston has had an advantage of building the minor leagues because they were dreadful for a while. But they also had to be able to develop the talent after identifying and acquiring it.

Maybe the development is fine, I don't know one way or another. Maybe, just for example, Moya is not going to be able to harness that swing into more contact? Maybe they've done quite well in getting Machado to turn in a AAA all star season which might further itself into a serviceable middle infield career? Maybe Ryan's ceiling is going to be as a lefty in the pen? Maybe that's the best that this trio could've hoped for in any other organization?

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The fact that the Tigers have gotten this much out of Moya and Machado is a tremendous developmental win.

They (along with Moya himself) have turned Moya from dreadful hitter to below-average hitter, that's a pretty big accomplishment. Probably half of the time across baseball, a player like Moya never turns in a quality Double-A or Triple-A season. The Tigers have gotten that and may still get some MLB value from him.

With Machado, they've worked and worked to add strength to make his offensive game even passable. The progress made there, without sacrificing his defensive abilities, has been tremendous, even if he's not an impact bat at the MLB level. Taking him from A-ball filler to potential big league utility player is a developmental win.

That's not all to say that the Tigers are a developmental force, I'm just giving context to two of the examples you cited. The Tigers have had many developmental failures, including Jacob Turner, Andrew Oliver, etc. They've also had some under the radar wins with guys like Dirks, Casper Wells, etc. In total, I would contend the Tigers are about average in terms of player development.

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Honestly, I think if one wants to be critical, they would conclude all teams are lousy at developing MLB talent and the only distinction is some teams are less horrible at it than others.

It is very difficult for anyone to make the majors and it is very hard to predict 4 or 5 years into the future.

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Honestly, I think if one wants to be critical, they would conclude all teams are lousy at developing MLB talent and the only distinction is some teams are less horrible at it than others.

It is very difficult for anyone to make the majors and it is very hard to predict 4 or 5 years into the future.

For some guys, yes. But for a lot of other players, it's a lot easier. Megatalents that have reached the majors in the past few years like Correa, Sano, Harper, Gallo, Schwarber, and Buxton were top talents in the draft or when they were signed. They didn't take long to get to the majors, and most have done extremely well since they have arrived.

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Is there a problem with development within the organization? I mean, I understand that the Tigers have had the later picks in each round the last few seasons based on standings, so in theory they are getting the leftovers in each round. But can't this be made up for somewhat by some combination of international scouting & signing, and then development of what players are in the system?

Houston has had an advantage of building the minor leagues because they were dreadful for a while. But they also had to be able to develop the talent after identifying and acquiring it.

Maybe the development is fine, I don't know one way or another. Maybe, just for example, Moya is not going to be able to harness that swing into more contact? Maybe they've done quite well in getting Machado to turn in a AAA all star season which might further itself into a serviceable middle infield career? Maybe Ryan's ceiling is going to be as a lefty in the pen? Maybe that's the best that this trio could've hoped for in any other organization?

I think it's a combination of things.

Picking at the end of the rounds

Giving up first rounders for free agents

Not being in position to sell at the deadline

Being buyers at the deadline and the offseason

None of it is going to be fixed by holding on to a single draft pick.

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For some guys, yes. But for a lot of other players, it's a lot easier. Megatalents that have reached the majors in the past few years like Correa, Sano, Harper, Gallo, Schwarber, and Buxton were top talents in the draft or when they were signed. They didn't take long to get to the majors, and most have done extremely well since they have arrived.

Those guys are the exception, not the rule.

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Being a top talent in the draft doesn't mean you're going to make it as a major leaguer. Nobody is a sure thing.

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Those guys are the exception, not the rule.

There have been a lot of exceptions the past 5 years. The biggest exception is that the Tigers don't have any of those exceptions.

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There have been a lot of exceptions the past 5 years. The biggest exception is that the Tigers don't have any of those exceptions.

I think I'll gladly trade that for winning the division 4 times in a row.

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I think I'll gladly trade that for winning the division 4 times in a row.

That's in the past. I'm always looking forward.

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Is there a problem with development within the organization? ...

I guess one thing you can look for is players that do not progress in your org that go somewhere else and take off and vice versa. For instance I have seen people defend Houston on the grounds that they couldn't know what JD would do in 2014 because he had changed his swing - well if he had all that potential blocked by a bad swing why hadn't they worked on him to change it years earlier? Conversely, you can make the argument that NY turned Granderson into a more consistent hitter against LHP that the Tigers were ever able to - though the whole Yankee Stadium thing muddies the issue.

Now OTOH, even that is of limited value as an indicator as I imagine in the real world there are probably windows in a guy's athletic lifespan where things might happen but if they don't happen on schedule they will never happen.

At any rate, by that measure - as weak as it may be, the Tigs don't seem to have had a lot of misses. Travis has turned out pretty good but the Tigers knew what they were giving up in his case and did it anyway.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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That's in the past. I'm always looking forward.

The Tigers past is why they don't currently have one of those exceptions....................................

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The Tigers past is why they don't currently have one of those exceptions....................................

They might be able to get an exception next June.

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There have been a lot of exceptions the past 5 years. The biggest exception is that the Tigers don't have any of those exceptions.

Is it exceptional that a given MLB team not to have come up with at least one exceptional player in the past 5 seasons?

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Is it exceptional that a given MLB team not to have come up with at least one exceptional player in the past 5 seasons?

No, but some teams have multiple exceptions, like the Cubs and Astros.

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They might be able to get an exception next June.

Might. As in about a 1 in 10 chance. You don't strategize the free agent period around that.

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No, but some teams have multiple exceptions, like the Cubs and Astros.

It took years of last place teams and trading any decent players they had for them to obtain them.

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I seriously feel like I'm arguing with a football fan that thinks in baseball one draft can turn around a franchise. You know better than that.

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I seriously feel like I'm arguing with a football fan that thinks in baseball one draft can turn around a franchise. You know better than that.

I'm a football fan and a baseball fan that has watched both drafts for the past 40 years.

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I'm a football fan and a baseball fan that has watched both drafts for the past 40 years.

I'm well aware of this.

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For some guys, yes. But for a lot of other players, it's a lot easier. Megatalents that have reached the majors in the past few years like Correa, Sano, Harper, Gallo, Schwarber, and Buxton were top talents in the draft or when they were signed. They didn't take long to get to the majors, and most have done extremely well since they have arrived.

The only one of those guys the Tigers could have drafted was Gallo, and that is if they didn't sign Prince Fielder, who provided value before being traded for a 5+ win 2B. I'll take that trade. They don't win the division from 2012-2014 without signing Prince Fielder. And I guess they could have theoretically signed Sano, but that was a very very weird signing, so much that an awesome documentary was made about it.

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