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Yoda

Cespedes to Mets

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Yup. Tootblans and popups aside, he's a lot of fun to watch. And we have him for 3 more seasons.

I gather that getting picked off doesn't factor into WAR? I'm sort of half kidding. Has there ever been a 6 WAR player who makes you angrier?

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I gather that getting picked off doesn't factor into WAR? I'm sort of half kidding. Has there ever been a 6 WAR player who makes you angrier?

Hitler?

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That's not really what the contract language was about. The issue was that he signed a 4 year deal, and he wouldn't have gone to free agency at all after it expired because he's only have 4 years of service time, at most. So in order to get free agency, they needed a mechanism to get there. Obviously a release is one way. Non tendering is the other. In both cases, a qualifying offer is not possible.

Free agency from a non tender doesn't occur until early December.

If you want free agency when the other free agents declare, you need to be released. But being released during that period does prevent the releasing team from re-signing the player until May.

You're assuming Cespedes would not have been a free agent without that clause. I'm not sure that's how it works with veterans of foreign leagues.

Chen of BAL, for instance, will be a FA after 4 years and has no such clause, but he can receive a QO.

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I think Cespedes has put himself in the +$20m group. Right in there with Ramirez (19.7m), Kemp(21.2m), Crawford(21.3m), Wright (20m) Werth and Ellsbury (21.1m)

My guess 7/150

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That would be 42 million... I thought it was around 3. 21 seems pretty realistic.

It's definitely not 3. It was supposedly 6 a couple of years ago, but looking at the WAR and salary columns on FanGraphs, it appears to be up to 8 which seems too high. I never pay much attention to that anyway because there are so many variables.

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You're assuming Cespedes would not have been a free agent without that clause. I'm not sure that's how it works with veterans of foreign leagues.

Chen of BAL, for instance, will be a FA after 4 years and has no such clause, but he can receive a QO.

I'm still skeptical of whether Chen can be given a qualifying offer. It's being reported that he will be given one, but I just don't see how is eligible.

Qualifying offers are governed by article xx(b), which only applies to players granted free agency having at least six years of service time.

Whether or not Chen or cespedes would eligible for free agency or not absent any specific clauses should be irrelevant.

It's possible that a release or non tender clause might not be necessary for free agency, because the six year free agency rule refers to the uniform player contract, and these deals were probably not uniform player contracts.

I guess we will find out in a couple months.

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I think Cespedes has put himself in the +$20m group. Right in there with Ramirez (19.7m), Kemp(21.2m), Crawford(21.3m), Wright (20m) Werth and Ellsbury (21.1m)

My guess 7/150

Cespedes has definitely put himself in a position to rake in a bigger contract than I thought possible just after the trade. Kudos to him. Better to steer clear from him if he's going to be a $125-150MM guy like some are saying (and I still have my doubts). I like Gordon more anyways. He's a better fit and would be worth the loss of the pick if we can keep the contract to something in the 4-5 year range.

I wonder why he didn't engage the Tigers to change the clause in his contract the way that he did with the Mets? If he had, there's a chance we wouldn't have traded him (and he implied that he didn't want to be traded at the time).

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I'm not sure what to make of Latos and being designated by the Dodgers. Its not going to help his free agency, but may not hurt it much either. Then again he might just chose a 1-year deal anyways and hit FA again after 2016. Probably the smartest move for him given the SP depth this winter.

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I'd love to be the team that gives him that 1 year shot

Absolutely, aside from his ERA, he was fine this year before being traded to the Dodgers, and they gave up after just 24 innings. I'd sign him all day long.

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Kinsler has had an amazing second half and proved me wrong for thinking his career was winding down, but the idea that he might be worth 21 (or 42) million dollars just makes me want to remove the WAR stat from existence.

sub .800 OPS at a non premium position. I know salaries are always inflating but come on. I guess after his 2nd half Cespedes is probably worth $50 or $60 million per year. Think of the wins.

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Completely exaggerating Cespedes is a great way to make a point about Kinsler.

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Completely exaggerating Cespedes is a great way to make a point about Kinsler.

1. It's the thread about Cespedes

2. He's imo a better defender than Kinsler

3. In the 2nd half of the year Cespedes has hit for a .977 OPS

Am I exaggerating? I'm pretty sure if you calculated the WAR of an excellent defender with a 1.000 OPS it would be pretty good! If he's a 10 WAR player, he's apparently worth $70 million per year. Sign him up Avila.

Ian Kinsler is the 16th best player in MLB. Add up the WARs

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1. It's the thread about Cespedes

2. He's imo a better defender than Kinsler

3. In the 2nd half of the year Cespedes has hit for a .977 OPS

Am I exaggerating? I'm pretty sure if you calculated the WAR of an excellent defender with a 1.000 OPS it would be pretty good! If he's a 10 WAR player, he's apparently worth $70 million per year. Sign him up Avila.

Ian Kinsler is the 16th best player in MLB. Add up the WARs

59914239.jpg

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59914239.jpg

Nice meme bro, maybe you could share it with Ian Kinsler and you could share a laugh while chugging Hurricane High Gravity

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1. It's the thread about Cespedes

2. He's imo a better defender than Kinsler

3. In the 2nd half of the year Cespedes has hit for a .977 OPS

Am I exaggerating? I'm pretty sure if you calculated the WAR of an excellent defender with a 1.000 OPS it would be pretty good! If he's a 10 WAR player, he's apparently worth $70 million per year. Sign him up Avila.

Ian Kinsler is the 16th best player in MLB. Add up the WARs

So, in summary:

For Gose, minor league stats and history matters, this hot streak doesn't.

For Cespedes, 3.5 years of MLB doesn't matter, it's the hot streak that we're talking about.

But the context is completely different, right?

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So, in summary:

For Gose, minor league stats and history matters, this hot streak doesn't.

For Cespedes, 3.5 years of MLB doesn't matter, it's the hot streak that we're talking about.

But the context is completely different, right?

This might surprise you, but actually giving Cespedes 70 million dollars a year is not something I want to do.

In fact, I would be against signing him to nearly any contract he's likely to receive.

I am merely using him as an example of the foolishness of WAR and assigning dollar values to it. For example, a team of replacement level players would be expected to win 47 games. Therefore, if teams were actually paying $7 million per win over replacement, you would expect a 90 win team to have a payroll of $301 million dollars. Even at $3 million/WAR this is would take $129 million.

Now of course you should argue that teams have rookies making little money who are underpaid etc etc and no one actually wants to give these guys that much money, and I'd agree. But the entire concept is pretty silly. Replacement level is made up, the position adjustments are made up, the value of various offensive components and defense are made up. IMO, WAR greatly overvalues defense and position adjustments. I would not rather have Ian Kinsler than Max Scherzer for one season at the same cost for example.

That is not to say that WAR isn't a useful stat to some degree. Of course it's a nice quick and dirty way to compare two players, and I think it is good at looking at a player's entire career. But this random fascination with using it to directly compare players or judge value is pretty questionable. It's like Dave Cameron insisting dumb trades were actually reasonable because the WARs added up to equal value. Sure they did, but no one in their right mind thought 3 crappy players actually equalled one good player just because they contributed 0.4 more WAR as a group.

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This might surprise you, but actually giving Cespedes 70 million dollars a year is not something I want to do.

In fact, I would be against signing him to nearly any contract he's likely to receive.

I am merely using him as an example of the foolishness of WAR and assigning dollar values to it. For example, a team of replacement level players would be expected to win 47 games. Therefore, if teams were actually paying $7 million per win over replacement, you would expect a 90 win team to have a payroll of $301 million dollars. Even at $3 million/WAR this is would take $129 million.

Now of course you should argue that teams have rookies making little money who are underpaid etc etc and no one actually wants to give these guys that much money, and I'd agree. But the entire concept is pretty silly. Replacement level is made up, the position adjustments are made up, the value of various offensive components and defense are made up. IMO, WAR greatly overvalues defense and position adjustments. I would not rather have Ian Kinsler than Max Scherzer for one season at the same cost for example.

That is not to say that WAR isn't a useful stat to some degree. Of course it's a nice quick and dirty way to compare two players, and I think it is good at looking at a player's entire career. But this random fascination with using it to directly compare players or judge value is pretty questionable. It's like Dave Cameron insisting dumb trades were actually reasonable because the WARs added up to equal value. Sure they did, but no one in their right mind thought 3 crappy players actually equalled one good player just because they contributed 0.4 more WAR as a group.

Of course, Scherzer has a higher WAR.

Now if both players had the same WAR and were paid the same, it is entirely possible that you're wrong and Kinsler would be just as valuable as the starting pitcher.

edit: a better example is Tyson Ross, who has the same WAR as Ian.

Edited by Yoda

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This might surprise you, but actually giving Cespedes 70 million dollars a year is not something I want to do.

In fact, I would be against signing him to nearly any contract he's likely to receive.

I am merely using him as an example of the foolishness of WAR and assigning dollar values to it. For example, a team of replacement level players would be expected to win 47 games. Therefore, if teams were actually paying $7 million per win over replacement, you would expect a 90 win team to have a payroll of $301 million dollars. Even at $3 million/WAR this is would take $129 million.

Now of course you should argue that teams have rookies making little money who are underpaid etc etc and no one actually wants to give these guys that much money, and I'd agree. But the entire concept is pretty silly. Replacement level is made up, the position adjustments are made up, the value of various offensive components and defense are made up. IMO, WAR greatly overvalues defense and position adjustments. I would not rather have Ian Kinsler than Max Scherzer for one season at the same cost for example.

That is not to say that WAR isn't a useful stat to some degree. Of course it's a nice quick and dirty way to compare two players, and I think it is good at looking at a player's entire career. But this random fascination with using it to directly compare players or judge value is pretty questionable. It's like Dave Cameron insisting dumb trades were actually reasonable because the WARs added up to equal value. Sure they did, but no one in their right mind thought 3 crappy players actually equalled one good player just because they contributed 0.4 more WAR as a group.

$$$/WAR is an estimate to reflect FA market value, that is all. I think we agree that it's usefulness is limited and/or disappears when taken to logical extremes. Nobody's going to be building a full team with FAs, they will build their teams with cost controlled guys and try to fill in holes with veterans (or trades or whatever) to get to the magical 85 or 90 win number.

It's getting kind of tough to have a discussion when within the discussion you cherry pick sample sizes and examples to fit your narrative. But I don't have to continue the discussion so I guess it's my fault.

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To revisit.

 

Fair to say win win for both teams, but I am loving this trade. It's even a more of a win if Cespedes opts out of his 3 year deal next year. Easily one of the best big picture trades for Tigers in recent years it is appearing. Fulmer's initial reaction.

“It kind of was out of nowhere,” Fulmer said. “I didn’t have any idea. I walk inside and all my teammates start clapping, saying there’s the new Tiger. They’re watching MLB Network, my name and face are up there with Cespedes.

“That moment was kind of surreal [but] it was nice to be wanted. So, hopefully I can prove to the Tigers that they made a good choice and that I’m here to stay.”

Also, the New York perspective 

http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2016/06/michael_fulmer_yoenis_cespedes_trade.html

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Mets fans are kidding themselves by complaining that "they had other chips, they traded the wrong guy", when the Tigers were really only interested in Fulmer for that deal.

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17 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

That and the Kinsler guy has worked out ok this season.

He tore it up in June and July last season, and then came crashing down to earth in September.  In fact, going back to last June, he's OPSed .925 or higher in 4 of those 6 months.  In April of this season, he was only at .873.  Last September was a crapper of a .600ish month.  But aside from that, this has been an awfully darn impressive year's worth of hitting from him.

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