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Stormin' Norman

2015 Draft thread

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I don't know if he so much forgot. He just monumentally screwed it up banking on Suh coming back. If he's here next year, I guarantee the DL will get plenty of resources invested in it

Hopefully he's not here next year.

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Thats what he did to get last year's defense! Suh, fairley, and ansah were all first round picks and look what happened, the lions turned into a dominant defense.

And then he let suh go. Let fairley go. And invested in bit players and old veteran stop gaps.

Its not that he didnt know it, its that he forgot it.

His head got too big from his success of finding bit players and having them work when plugged into the defense. But yes, the only reason why that worked was because you had the awesome Dline covering their shortcomings. Now they're just getting exposed.

This is what happens to when you have Millen and then Millen's protege in their little bubble for so long. One good year and you think you're the **** and there's nobody to tell you otherwise.

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So in non-Lions bashing news, I mentioned that I would keep updating how my mock players were doing and I am actually very happy with the performance over the last two weeks.

Quinten Rollins had a big week with two interceptions, one returned for a TD.

Pierre Desir also had a nice last two weeks, starting last week for an injured Joe Haden he gave up one TD to Keenan Allen but otherwise had a phenomenal game.

Malcolm Brown continues to progress as the season goes with his first positive PFF grade of the season.

Tre' Jackson had his second straight positive game, the last two weeks he had positive run blocking grades and gave up one QB hurry over the last two weeks (no sacks, no QB hits).

Michael Bennett continues to be a solid role player getting about half of the snaps for Jax.

Thomas Rawls had another great game, his overall PFF rating (+3.5) for the season would be a great addition to the team.

The rest of my picks were on bye or had hit-or-miss last two weeks; Moncrief had a great game last week, this week he struggled. Pryor has continued to be good, not great. Same with Reid. Linsley isn't as dominate as last year, but still an above average center. I still think with my drafts we would be much better off; our run game would be better (better guard, center, and RB), receiving would be benefited (Moncrief), secondary would be improved (Rollins, Desir, Pryor), and we wouldn't have had to go out and sign guys like Fluellen and other marginal NFL players but instead could be using this opportunity to give two very solid prospects playing time (Brown and Bennett).

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Mayhew is not the only problem. This franchise needs new scouts. With this current group evaluating the college talent we can kiss the next draft goodbye.

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Mayhew is not the only problem. This franchise needs new scouts. With this current group evaluating the college talent we can kiss the next draft goodbye.

That's unfair to judge unless you have inside information about what the scouts are doing.

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With Levy probably done for the season and who knows about next season, does anyone like Jaylon Smith at LB for the Lions?

He has crazy speed for a LB and could be a game changer in the NFL.

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Not drafting well isn't enough info?

It could be that they are scouting well enough, but Mayhew is so obsessed with drafting "weapons" that he keeps overlooking the best talent available at the slot. It does seem, though, that their draft results are bad enough that there must be other underlying issues.

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Part of letting a new regime do its job adequately is to let them make the determination who among the front office personal (scouts included) should stay and who should go. If the new GM makes the determination that changes need to be made in the scouting staff, Martha Ford needs to let them make those changes.

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It could be that they are scouting well enough, but Mayhew is so obsessed with drafting "weapons" that he keeps overlooking the best talent available at the slot. It does seem, though, that their draft results are bad enough that there must be other underlying issues.

Lol, Mayhew is not obsessed with drafting weapons. Not more than any other GM. He has taken the WRONG weapons often in the draft though. That would be a lot more reasonable a thing to say. If anything he's obsessed with the lines

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Lol, Mayhew is not obsessed with drafting weapons. Not more than any other GM. He has taken the WRONG weapons often in the draft though. That would be a lot more reasonable a thing to say. If anything he's obsessed with the lines

A guy who has repeatedly traded up to pick offensive skill players who washed out of the league has an unhealthy obsession with skill players. He overvalues them. Perhaps he takes as many skill players as other GMs do (I'm not about to look it up, but if you have, by all means post your findings), but he has reduced his total number of draft picks available in order to pick them. And the thing that correlates most with success in the draft is the number of picks you have.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

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Mayhew is not the only problem. This franchise needs new scouts. With this current group evaluating the college talent we can kiss the next draft goodbye.

There are 1000 mock drafts out there leading up to the draft. If the Lions just followed any of them they wouldn't be any worse off.

As is, they even surprise the mock drafts most people don't take seriously with their poor choices.

Speed is very important in a RB. But so is hanging onto the football. Ameer Abdullah had 24 college fumbles? We'll take him. How many concussions did Jahvid Best have in college? Well, we'll even move up to take him. We don't really need all those picks anyway. So now we move on to tight ends. I see a couple more this season along with a couple punters.

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Am I forgetting someone, because I remember him trading up twice for skill guys, Best and Leshoure. He has never taken a WR or RB with his first pick. 5 of his 7 original first rounders were linemen. In the last 4 drafts, he has taken 3 skill players in the first 4 rounds out of 17 total picks, 17.6% of those picks. Fwiw, skill players(or "weapons")make up 18-22% of your starting lineup(22 represents a 3 WR or 2 TE set. I'm not including FBs)

Now OTOH, not getting almost any contribution from his 2014 and 15 drafts, which has a pretty small amount to do with "weapons", is killing us.

To add to it, 33% of his picks have been linemen. Now, 40% of a starting lineup is linemen, but he's also hit on them the first time(somewhere between starter and star) more often than he has other positions and he inherited 3 of the 4 decent players he inhertited were OL. Also, you might use 3-4 WR sets, 2 back systems and nickel and dime packages where as OL starters pretty much just play every snap of a given game barring injury.

Basic findings, IMO. He has drafted the wrong skill guys and the wrong CBs and that is where we've been hurt the most. That and generally leaving us thin by missing on late round picks.

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Am I forgetting someone, because I remember him trading up twice for skill guys, Best and Leshoure. He has never taken a WR or RB with his first pick. 5 of his 7 original first rounders were linemen. In the last 4 drafts, he has taken 3 skill players in the first 4 rounds out of 17 total picks, 17.6% of those picks. Fwiw, skill players(or "weapons")make up 18-22% of your starting lineup(22 represents a 3 WR or 2 TE set. I'm not including FBs)

Now OTOH, not getting almost any contribution from his 2014 and 15 drafts, which has a pretty small amount to do with "weapons", is killing us.

To add to it, 33% of his picks have been linemen. Now, 40% of a starting lineup is linemen, but he's also hit on them the first time(somewhere between starter and star) more often than he has other positions and he inherited 3 of the 4 decent players he inhertited were OL. Also, you might use 3-4 WR sets, 2 back systems and nickel and dime packages where as OL starters pretty much just play every snap of a given game barring injury.

Basic findings, IMO. He has drafted the wrong skill guys and the wrong CBs and that is where we've been hurt the most. That and generally leaving us thin by missing on late round picks.

Yes, he missed on a #10 pick, a tight end. But all his other drafts? We aren't getting much from the 1st and 2nd round picks, for how ever many years he's been drafting.

These should be players who are in their prime making the Lions a very good team. Here's a list of our picks, but remember he wouldn't have had to make some of these pics if his original picks had panned, moving on to the chance to draft players for other needs;

2000-2009; Detroit Lions | Draft History - 2000-2009

2010-Present Detroit Lions | Draft History - 2010-2019

Just horrible, horrible drafting. Enough picks to make 2 teams better than we are now.

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I guess there's a formula for determining what extra picks we get for losing quality players.

Right now it's just an estimate, so far it seems like we get 3 comp picks this year. a 3rd a 5th and a 7th OR two 4ths and a 7th.

All on top of our regular picks. Somewhat confusing but I wouldn't be disappointed if the Lions changed strategy on their drafting. Or, just get it right???

This really is an amount of draft picks that could build a franchise, don't blow it.

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Now OTOH, not getting almost any contribution from his 2014 and 15 drafts, which has a pretty small amount to do with "weapons", is killing us.

His first pick in 2014 was a weapon pick, there is nothing small about that. That was a major pick in which he could have had either a better weapon in Beckham, a lineman in Zach Martin or a DT in Aaron Donald. That's a colossal miscalculation on Mayhew's part.

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His first pick in 2014 was a weapon pick, there is nothing small about that. That was a major pick in which he could have had either a better weapon in Beckham, a lineman in Zach Martin or a DT in Aaron Donald. That's a colossal miscalculation on Mayhew's part.

Absolutely. He made the wrong pick there. I've said it a bunch lately. THat's different than overvaluing one specific area of the team.

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His first pick in 2014 was a weapon pick, there is nothing small about that. That was a major pick in which he could have had either a better weapon in Beckham, a lineman in Zach Martin or a DT in Aaron Donald. That's a colossal miscalculation on Mayhew's part.

I remember when he drafted Ebron, I looked up his draft profile and it said he drops passes and can't block. Guess what his weaknesses are as a Lion? He drops passes and can't block.

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Am I forgetting someone, because I remember him trading up twice for skill guys, Best and Leshoure. He has never taken a WR or RB with his first pick. 5 of his 7 original first rounders were linemen. In the last 4 drafts, he has taken 3 skill players in the first 4 rounds out of 17 total picks, 17.6% of those picks. Fwiw, skill players(or "weapons")make up 18-22% of your starting lineup(22 represents a 3 WR or 2 TE set. I'm not including FBs)

Now OTOH, not getting almost any contribution from his 2014 and 15 drafts, which has a pretty small amount to do with "weapons", is killing us.

To add to it, 33% of his picks have been linemen. Now, 40% of a starting lineup is linemen, but he's also hit on them the first time(somewhere between starter and star) more often than he has other positions and he inherited 3 of the 4 decent players he inhertited were OL. Also, you might use 3-4 WR sets, 2 back systems and nickel and dime packages where as OL starters pretty much just play every snap of a given game barring injury.

Basic findings, IMO. He has drafted the wrong skill guys and the wrong CBs and that is where we've been hurt the most. That and generally leaving us thin by missing on late round picks.

This is actually an interesting post.

I had been thinking he also traded up to get Titus Young (which would have made three times in six drafts) but he traded up in TY's draft class to get Leshoure. In any event, trading up in two out of six classes, and whiffing, is a problem, as has been drafting the wrong skill guys. But I think it is more than just drafting the wrong skill guys - it is drafting skill guys when you should be filling holes on your lines. Instead of Ebron, we could have had Aaron Donald or Taylor Lewan. If Mayhew was obsessed with building his lines, he clearly didn't show it in 2014.

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This is actually an interesting post.

I had been thinking he also traded up to get Titus Young (which would have made three times in six drafts) but he traded up in TY's draft class to get Leshoure. In any event, trading up in two out of six classes, and whiffing, is a problem, as has been drafting the wrong skill guys. But I think it is more than just drafting the wrong skill guys - it is drafting skill guys when you should be filling holes on your lines. Instead of Ebron, we could have had Aaron Donald or Taylor Lewan. If Mayhew was obsessed with building his lines, he clearly didn't show it in 2014.

He did not show it in 2014, I fully agree. I said before, I think he bet a ton on Suh coming back, and he lost that bet.

But yes, unless they dig themselves out of this hole some how(almost impossible it seems) and the draft class shows potential, Mayhew's job should be in severe jeopardy.

Someone mentioned keeping him on a one year, win a playoff game or else ultimatum. I might live with that, but not sure.

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He did not show it in 2014, I fully agree. I said before, I think he bet a ton on Suh coming back, and he lost that bet.

But yes, unless they dig themselves out of this hole some how(almost impossible it seems) and the draft class shows potential, Mayhew's job should be in severe jeopardy.

Someone mentioned keeping him on a one year, win a playoff game or else ultimatum. I might live with that, but not sure.

I've been off the Mayhew bandwagon for a while, but to defend him, this must be one of the most talented teams in NFL history to start 0-5. Also, looking at their remaining schedule, it wouldn't be stunning if they swept the Bears, beat Minnesota at home, beat the Raiders and 49ers at home, then won two of their three remaining home games against the Eagles, Rams, and Saints, and beat the Chiefs in London. That would make them 8-8. Perfectly average. (Which was easy to expect in the offseason after the loss of their best player.)

He seems to have learned something from his earlier mistakes in trading up, and is more inclined now to trade back and stockpile picks (like NE and Baltimore do), which is a positive. And he has done reasonably well with free agents.

He does appear to have struck out on the offensive side of the ball. Lombardi's offense appears to be too complex. Who knows... Brees played for Purdue, Stafford played for Georgia. Maybe you need an engineer's brain to succeed in it, and Stafford just doesn't have that.

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I've been off the Mayhew bandwagon for a while, but to defend him, this must be one of the most talented teams in NFL history to start 0-5. Also, looking at their remaining schedule, it wouldn't be stunning if they swept the Bears, beat Minnesota at home, beat the Raiders and 49ers at home, then won two of their three remaining home games against the Eagles, Rams, and Saints, and beat the Chiefs in London. That would make them 8-8. Perfectly average. (Which was easy to expect in the offseason after the loss of their best player.)

He seems to have learned something from his earlier mistakes in trading up, and is more inclined now to trade back and stockpile picks (like NE and Baltimore do), which is a positive. And he has done reasonably well with free agents.

He does appear to have struck out on the offensive side of the ball. Lombardi's offense appears to be too complex. Who knows... Brees played for Purdue, Stafford played for Georgia. Maybe you need an engineer's brain to succeed in it, and Stafford just doesn't have that.

Yah, pretty much agreed with all of this. He gets made out to be a trainwreck quite often, but in reality he's probably closer to average, maybe above average. Once he got a healthy QB, he made the playoffs 2/4 seasons, in a league where 37.5% of teams make the playoffs. Obviously though, 2 factors come into play at that point. One, we have suffered for a long time in Detroit and have aspirations beyond "above average" and looking so bad this year is quite a hit to his resume.

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Yah, pretty much agreed with all of this. He gets made out to be a trainwreck quite often, but in reality he's probably closer to average, maybe above average. Once he got a healthy QB, he made the playoffs 2/4 seasons, in a league where 37.5% of teams make the playoffs. Obviously though, 2 factors come into play at that point. One, we have suffered for a long time in Detroit and have aspirations beyond "above average" and looking so bad this year is quite a hit to his resume.

I'm one of Mayhew's biggest critics and even I wouldnt classify him as a trainwreck. He reminds me of Dumars without the championship/playoff success: very solid at trading and free agency but very weak at drafting and hiring coaches. And it's very hard to win that way, especially in the NFL. In the NBA it's obviously do-able because of the small roster size; but in the NFL there is a direct correlation to success and accomplished drafting and coaching hire.

This may be because I am a jaded Lions fan, but I don't get any satisfaction (personally) to losing in the Wild Card game. I mean yes, technically, we made the playoffs but without a win in the wild card game it doesn't really feel like it to me. No divisional championships and no win in the playoffs doesn't really count as much of an accomplishment to me.

Edited by EchO

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I'm one of Mayhew's biggest critics and even I wouldnt classify him as a trainwreck. He reminds me of Dumars without the championship/playoff success: very solid at trading and free agency but very weak at drafting and hiring coaches. And it's very hard to win that way, especially in the NFL. In the NBA it's obviously do-able because of the small roster size; but in the NFL there is a direct correlation to success and accomplished drafting and coaching hire.

This may be because I am a jaded Lions fan, but I don't get any satisfaction (personally) to losing in the Wild Card game. I mean yes, technically, we made the playoffs but without a win in the wild card game it doesn't really feel like it to me. No divisional championships and no win in the playoffs doesn't really count as much of an accomplishment to me.

I would classify dumars without the championship as a trainwreck.

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