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mickeyb105

Do you want to get a lottery pick or watch good basketball?

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Last night was a look at what kind of basketball we could see going forward from an SVG-run Pistons, and that is pretty encouraging. Those pining to draft the next Jabari, Wiggins, Otto, and so on--try to remain objective as to what the draft REALLY is in this era. Just because a player is slotted for the lottery it doesn't mean he will make a franchise better these days. Look at the last two drafts--one was regarded as a terrible draft, the other as the best draft in a decade. The 2012 draft was probably projected somewhere in-between, but was actually worlds better than '14. Could the difference in '12 be the development that we are just now seeing from those then-toddlers? That is part of it. The other part is that the draft was just deeper with useful players.

In both '12 and '13 there was plenty to chose from after the lottery picks. Even in '11 there was Kawhi, Vucevic, Harris, Faried, Mirotic, R. Jackson, Butler and Parsons. Might as well throw in Corey Joseph now, he looks legit. I'm not saying I would rather pick after the lottery given a freeroll, but making the playoffs is not a death sentence. There are max contract-worthy players getting drafted after the lottery every year.

2013 Lottery Picks

1. Bennett- Biggest reach at #1 in recent history, fringe rotation player. Could be Rodney Rogers with work.

2. Oladipo- Obvious pick here, a poor-man's Bledsoe but ready to play immediately.

3. Porter- Desperation pick at #3, Wiz needed a SF bad and got a guy who has made a limited impact through year-two.

4. Zeller- Plain bad pick here, why not trade down and draft Plumlee for value if you want a guy like this?

5. Len- The only pick if waiting for Noel to heal is out of the question, but why not just draft Noel here? Len will be an average rotation big

6. Noel- Drafted hurt, Tyson Chandler type who will get better with added weight. No real impact til next year, likely.

7. McLemore- Projected by some as highest ceiling in draft, is just now showing he can be an impact player.

8. KCP- See McLemore but minus some ceiling, KCP was drafted to grow into an NBA SG. Just 21, Eddie Jones ceiling with patience.

9. Burke- Dumars slaughtered in press/on forums for passing on Trey, but kid can't score efficiently. Sub-standard NBA starters ceiling.

10. McCollum- Late climber in draft, has work to do to become a solid third guard. Players like this are second-round picks.

11. MCW- Best player of this draft to date, or product of bad Philly team? Regardless, should have probably been the #2 pick.

12. Adams- Solid big playing important minutes for a playoff team, could be fringe AS in years to come with minutes.

13. Olynyk- With better health and conditioning could be a nice scoring big, ok value at end of lottery.

Impact outside of lottery:

15. Giannis- anyone else wish Dumars would have gambled on him? Still so young, but making impact just turning 20. The next K. Leonard?

18. Larkin- everything we wished Siva was, Larkin is. May lead league in steals on day, or FT %.

21. Dieng- absolute steal here, Dieng excels as a shot blocker and rebounder. May never score big, but impactful for sure.

22. Plumlee- See above. Those who compared Plumlee and Zeller in mock drafts have some explaining to do.

23. S. Hill- A bit of a tweener, Hill is better than most any tweener type to come out of the draft the past few years.

24. Hardaway Jr- similar player to KCP but lesser of a defender. Good value at 24 for sure.

27. Gobert- sick rebounder and shot blocker who broke out recently. Impact at pick 27? Yup.

2014 Lottery Picks

1. Wiggins- Elite athlete still learning how to play, looks more Harold Minor than T-Mac. Not even a 1:1 A/TO, bad for a guy billed as a facilitator.

2. Jabari- Jabroni has shown he is more than a volume scorer, but is likely lost to injury til next season. Impact player? Maybe someday.

2. Embiid- Could be a legit franchise big, could be Emeka Okafor. Drafted to have impact next season, incomplete.

3. Gordon- Still looks similar to Tony Mitchell to me, just given prime opportunity due to draft slot. Needs either bulk or handles to make an impact.

4. Exum- Dynamic athlete still learning how to play, like a raw Doug Christie or thereabouts. Impact player? Not for a few years if at all, but rotation yes.

5. Smart- Struggling to score and to keep healthy, Smart still reminds me of Stuckey a lot. Do you tank a season to draft a guy like this? (hint: no)

7. Randle- Hard to judge a season by 14 minutes, but Randle's bust potential as a mid-lottery pick is undeniable.

8. Stauskus- Reminds me a lot of Brent Berry, potential to be a solid pro for years. Similar players available a dozen picks later in most drafts.

9. Vonleh- Will be a caddy this year and maybe next before getting meaningful run, but could shock lots of people when it happens. Needs that time.

10. Payton- Lots to like about this pg, looks good with the ball unless he's shooting. D's up. A better player than Exum today, maybe in three years too.

11. McDermott- Billed as next Korver but predictably struggling. Will be a fringe NBA player until adjusts to the speed, LOL impact.

12. Saric- Having an OK year in Europe, struggling with shot. Time will tell, but can't see him having any impact at all until year-three.

13. LaVine- Early results are overall decent, but struggling with shot and on defense against faster PG. Could eventually be the best guard in draft.

Impact outside of lottery:

24. Napier- Is predictably putting up solid numbers for a rookie PG in a backup role.

32. McDaniels- Putting up numbers as a rotation swingman on an awful team, but the talent is there.

How many more will emerge from the rest of the draft? Looks pretty top-heavy from 30K feet, but time will tell.

2012 Lottery Picks

1. Unibrow- best draft pick in recent history, way better than I thought he would be. Ideal foundation player, Duncan-like possibly.

2. MKG- drafted purely on athletic talent and projection, still just 21 and third-best rebounding SF in league. Will he learn how to shoot? AS if yes.

3. Beal- great all-around talent but can't stay healthy, worthy #3 pick in most any draft. Impact player, but may need to change teams to reach ceiling.

4. Waiters- Proven scorer but a poor man's Beal at best, a reach at #4. Players like this are plentiful at the end of the 1st round/early 2nd.

5. Robinson- Classic tweener can grow into an effective rebounding specialist in the right rotation. Lots of guys like this available even outside of draft.

6. Lillard- Year's ROY is an offensive force but defensive matador. Still, nice value at #6 and an impact player

7. Barnes- Efficient scorer who is getting better, was a no-brainer pick at #7. Just another guy in GS, but could be a #2 scorer on a good team.

8. Ross- A scorer's scorer, Ross could be an AS in another uniform. Or he could be Gerald Green. Showed impact last year and going forward.

9. Drummond- Whether he's the next Howard or a super-sized Jerome Williams, he's a true impact player. Obviously a steal at 9.

10 Rivers- Showing improvement, but had nowhere to go but up. Will eventually be a useful rotation player, low turnovers for position.

11. M. Leonard- Not terrible as a rookie, good range for a big. Minutes and numbers are bad in Portland.

12. Lamb- Flashed some game in Westbrook's absence, is ready for bigger contributions in year-three. Has all the ability, needs opportunity.

13. Marshall- Given up for dead by Phoenix, this guy could be the next Andre Miller but buried again on a bench. Not many true PGs left.

Impact outside of the lottery:

14. Henson- Solid rotation big, blocks shots and rebounds.

18. T. Jones- A stretch 4 that blocks shots and rebounds capably, will only get better as his game refines. Lottery talent, underachiever?

20. Fournier- Best pure shooter in draft class full of scorers, finally getting the chance to prove it in Orlando. Still just 22, impact scorer improving on D.

25. Wroten- high-usage player with few fans, Wroten may eventually be a valuable bench scorer on a contender. At 21 has upside.

26. Plumlee- A lunchpail, but athletic big, he's much better than several lottery bigs from recent drafts. Nice Gortat replacement.

27. PJIII- We all drooled over his potential, and this year he showed he is ready for a prime-time role pre-injury. Next to Davis, highest ceiling in class.

35. D. Green- Nice role player on a contender, excellent value pick. Very skilled, like a poor man's Anthony Mason.

39. Middleton- Was billed as having upside to a poor man's KD, and has flashed that promise. Nice value pick by Dumars wasted in Jennings trade.

There is so much undeveloped talent out there, as well as players with underestimated ceilings. Now that the Pistons have a proven system in place, drafting can become--hopefully--more of a sure thing for the team. If we don't make the lottery this season I'll be pretty freaking happy, and I'll encourage you guys to celebrate the small victory as well.

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Last night was a look at what kind of basketball we could see going forward from an SVG-run Pistons, and that is pretty encouraging. Those pining to draft the next Jabari, Wiggins, Otto, and so on--try to remain objective as to what the draft REALLY is in this era. ..

Nice post. Look at the difficulty MLB has projecting 18 yrs olds in its draft and it follows that "one and done" has to have reduced the 'projectability' of the players coming into the NBA draft at 19 as compared to 21 or 22.

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Jahlil Okafor looks legit. I haven't seen Mudiay play since DirecTV doesn't show Guangdong games, but he looks good on the highlight reel. After that, meh. I'm not betting on a #1 or #2 pick especially when the cynical side of me feels like the league is going to throw the Knicks a bone in the lotto. Give me competitive basketball.

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Wow. I feel guilty for not writing a long reply to a good informative post, but I want the team to play hard and win as many games as they can.

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Define competitive.

If competitive means making the playoffs, I will take that.

If competitive means 35 wins and drafting 12th, I would prefer a high pick.

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Define competitive.

If competitive means making the playoffs, I will take that.

If competitive means 35 wins and drafting 12th, I would prefer a high pick.

I just want to see effort and execution by the players, paired with pragmatic coaching and personnel moves. If this doesn't lead to a competitive team, so be it--but I just want to see something resembling good basketball. We have some talent on this team, even if it needs to be tempered. I want to see it tempered and evolved.

Let the draft pick fall wherever and we build on that for next season.

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Nice post. Look at the difficulty MLB has projecting 18 yrs olds in its draft and it follows that "one and done" has to have reduced the 'projectability' of the players coming into the NBA draft at 19 as compared to 21 or 22.

I can't even imagine how much pressure scouts are under to get it right with these basketball toddlers. Projecting tools isn't that hard if you know what to look for, but when you have to account for the immaturity of a teenager--a teenager you are making a $10-$40M gamble on--it gets so much harder.

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When college hoops started last year you knew the draft hype was too much. This year they toned it down. But this class will be deeper and more polished. After this season, I want to compete, I want to make the playoffs. This year I want the young guys to develop, play team hoops and then get a top 5 pick. And then make a good pick.

Lillard was taken 6th, and that dude is flat out legit.

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When college hoops started last year you knew the draft hype was too much. This year they toned it down. But this class will be deeper and more polished. After this season, I want to compete, I want to make the playoffs. This year I want the young guys to develop, play team hoops and then get a top 5 pick. And then make a good pick.

Lillard was taken 6th, and that dude is flat out legit.

He is legit but this is a great example of why you want a higher pick. 100% of everyone would take AD over him.

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He is legit but this is a great example of why you want a higher pick. 100% of everyone would take AD over him.

Which is why I said top 5.

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I just want to see effort and execution by the players, paired with pragmatic coaching and personnel moves. If this doesn't lead to a competitive team, so be it--but I just want to see something resembling good basketball. We have some talent on this team, even if it needs to be tempered. I want to see it tempered and evolved.

Let the draft pick fall wherever and we build on that for next season.

Yeah, I agree with this 100 percent. Give me quality basketball now, let the rest work its way out. Drafting is somewhat of a crapshoot.

Aside from what I want to see, his team needs to start playing tough basketball soon or IMHO SVG will be in a bad spot no matter who he drafts in the 1st round in 2015. It's hard to build credibility as an executive and HC when your team is mailing it in.

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I can't even imagine how much pressure scouts are under to get it right with these basketball toddlers. Projecting tools isn't that hard if you know what to look for, but when you have to account for the immaturity of a teenager--a teenager you are making a $10-$40M gamble on--it gets so much harder.

Yes, absolutely....I've known a lot of quality young people over my lifetime, but the thought of giving them $50M and asking them to perform at a championship level is more than I could imagine. I realize that some have done it, but they are the exceptions.

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Good basketball.

This teams needs to show progress, build credibility, and establish an identity going into an offseason with a lot of cash to spend. I think it needs that more than it needs to get a few slots higher in the annual random dice roll for talent.

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Good basketball. Life is too short to worry about which questionable draft picks they could get if only they would stink up the joint for years.

Play well. Add talent with whatever slot you have.

I'd rather have a mediocre team and add a potential good player to make them more than mediocre rather than a **** team that adds a potential great player to make them more than ****.

When we get to the last couple weeks, then I'll root for losses.

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Come on 30 wins and drafting another player who wont be here in 5 years!

Come on 15 wins and drafting another player who wont be a plus player for 5 years!

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If you asked me before the season if I would prefer 30-35 wins or a top 3-5 pick, I'd have taken the latter. No question. However, I always want to see my team play the best basketball they are capable of on a night in and night out basis. Let the chips fall where they may after that.

A big part of what SVG wants to do is change the culture and install his systems. I think that's the biggest goal from here on out. Even a bunch of losing won't guarantee a top 5 pick. I don't care a lot about the difference between the 12 and the 7 pick or whatever.

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Bottom line is that the lottery ain't what it used to be. Detroit is a bottom-rung franchise right now...they need to build credibility the old-fashioned way, by playing well and winning ballgames.

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If you asked me before the season if I would prefer 30-35 wins or a top 3-5 pick, I'd have taken the latter. No question. However, I always want to see my team play the best basketball they are capable of on a night in and night out basis. Let the chips fall where they may after that.

A big part of what SVG wants to do is change the culture and install his systems. I think that's the biggest goal from here on out. Even a bunch of losing won't guarantee a top 5 pick. I don't care a lot about the difference between the 12 and the 7 pick or whatever.

Agreed 100%.

The "culture" of this team since the Iverson trade debacle has been wretched, and the best way to change that is to re-establish that the adults are in charge again. Playing ****** basketball so that they can pin their hopes on a 19 year old is a recipe for failure IMHO.

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I don't think the lottery is less useful than any other time really.

Before the onslaught of underclassmen the lottery was something that could add a ready-made star or at least a sure-fire plus contributor.

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Before the onslaught of underclassmen the lottery was something that could add a ready-made star or at least a sure-fire plus contributor.

Wrong.

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I am a fan to watch the Pistons and, hopefully, be entertained while doing that. I hope they do well. Me cheering them on isn't going to change their draft pick or anything like that. I'll let all that take care of itself. If the Pistons are bad enough to post the worst record in the NBA, it'll happen. Why cheer for it?

The day I start cheering for the teams I support to lose and am upset they won a game is the day I need to change hobbies.

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I suspect we are going to get good team ball the rest of the way this year. How many wins and losses, who knows. But everyone seems to be a bit happier right now. And were in good position for a pick. well done stan.

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