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2015 Detroit Pistons Lottery Thread

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I keep going back to this when I think about Johnson- He's 6'7, 240 with a long wing span. He's good defensively.

We need a guy like that on the defensive end of the floor. Our division has guys with LeBron, Butler, George, Parker/Greek Freak.... We need a guy to check them

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Knicks fans would burn the stadium down. No way they accept moving down in the draft when they're already angry they didn't get a higher pick after they tanked the season. Not to mention that all they'd get back is KCP and a contract move which they could care less about because they're fans in a big market.

Realistically I think it's' more likely we move down than up if we move at all. Moving up even a few slots requires way more assets than I think Stan is willing to give up for what is a gamble anyway.

It will be super-interesting to see what the NYK do, as they have a history of alternately appeasing their fans (Marbury, Melo trades) and trolling them (drafting Rod Strickland a draft after hometown ROY Mark Jackson, then trading Strickland for a very over-the-hill Mo Cheeks; the awful roster built by Zeke;

; trading for McDyess; etc . . .

Having Russell lining up next to Jackson in our backcourt is a nice thought, but I think his stock continues to soar and he never makes it to #4.

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I keep going back to this when I think about Johnson- He's 6'7, 240 with a long wing span. He's good defensively.

We need a guy like that on the defensive end of the floor. Our division has guys with LeBron, Butler, George, Parker/Greek Freak.... We need a guy to check them

His body fat % is ridiculous... like sub 6%...that's a **** ton of fast twitch muscle. Possibly the most interesting athlete of the bunch given his size and wingspan

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His body fat % is ridiculous... like sub 6%...that's a **** ton of fast twitch muscle. Possibly the most interesting athlete of the bunch given his size and wingspan

Kinda reminds me of a young Artest in that way.

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Very cool site listing analysts and their system of ranking players in the draft.

Hover over a player and it will highlight him on all of the other lists.

tothemean

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DraftExpress: Analytics, Models and the NBA Draft Part 2

Despite the obvious benefits that statistics provide, they also lie. These models are based on an amalgam of college statistical data, and if a player's college setting deviates from the norm, it skews. The more atypical one's college experience is, the less clarity you should expect from their ranking. Playing at Kentucky and sharing the ball with five or more NBA caliber players can impact a player's rating. Same with playing in a unique system, playing incredibly weak competition, being the only serviceable player on a team etc.

NBA teams have proven to overvalue youth, handsize, vertical jump, speed and wingspan while undervaluing steals and assists in making their draft selections (Are hot new data trends actually making NBA teams dumber? | tothemean). Stats such as steals, rebounding and low foul rates are important for projecting NBA success, while scoring and high usage shooting percentage seem to be less important. These rankings place Delon Wright, Kevon Looney, Wesley Saunders, Seth Tuttle as the most underrated, and Jonathan Holmes, Willie Cauley-Stein, Devin Booker and Anthony Brown as some of the most overrated in comparison to the DraftExpress rankings. While these tools provide guidance, they are incomplete without further investigation. Do the models underrate Cauley-Stein because they fail to capture his defensive abilities? Or do scouts overvalue his defense due to his athletic ability or his pairing with Karl Towns, by far the best defender in college basketball?

From DraftExpress.com DraftExpress - NBA Draft, NCAA/International Basketball Website.

DraftExpress - NBA Draft, NCAA/International Basketball Website.

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After re-watching the DX videos on Johnson/Winslow/Ourbe/Mario/Booker I'm just as convinced now as I was a month ago that SVG needs to do whatever he can to trade down. Specifically, to target Myles Turner. All of the wings are too raw to help inside of 18 months and Booker is pretty much Hubert Davis 2.0--not a bad thing, but he's just a polished gunner with a high court IQ. Kind of like another Kentucky gunner we already have on the roster.

Edited by mickeyb105

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https://twitter.com/David_Mayo/status/612274100891856896

Last #Pistons workouts: Kaminsky, Turner headline. Trice (MSU), Jaiteh (int'l), Smith (La. Tech), McConnell (Az.)

Looks like Oubre worked out yesterday for them.

I also saw a picture of Booker doing an interview with the Pistons logo all over the wall behind him. Indicating he was also in town, but I haven't read any confirmation on that.

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I don't think this is their best work, but I suppose it helps keep their cadre of writers and analysts busy for the week.

Four categories for players, with "1." being Superstar and "2." being Starter? Sure seems like there is a gap in there categorically speaking.

A few curiosities here on their ranking of prospects. Upshaw all the way down at 44 seems pretty low, and Russell's bust potential at 40%+ seems rather high. I mean, they pin him as being over 2x as likely to be a bust as Dakari Johnson. Just seems off. I would think that WCS would rate higher to bust (although I do think there is a place for him as a specialist rather than be a complete bust) because of his lack of offense and Ourbe (who makes Otto Porter look like Bernard King) because of his severe lack of polish.

It is easy to fall in love with the projection and dismiss existing data if you don't like a player's athletic measurables, but didn't they hear how Upshaw measured out at the combine?

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I don't think this is their best work, but I suppose it helps keep their cadre of writers and analysts busy for the week.

Four categories for players, with "1." being Superstar and "2." being Starter? Sure seems like there is a gap in there categorically speaking.

A few curiosities here on their ranking of prospects. Upshaw all the way down at 44 seems pretty low, and Russell's bust potential at 40%+ seems rather high. I mean, they pin him as being over 2x as likely to be a bust as Dakari Johnson. Just seems off. I would think that WCS would rate higher to bust (although I do think there is a place for him as a specialist rather than be a complete bust) because of his lack of offense and Ourbe (who makes Otto Porter look like Bernard King) because of his severe lack of polish.

It is easy to fall in love with the projection and dismiss existing data if you don't like a player's athletic measurables, but didn't they hear how Upshaw measured out at the combine?

As to the first part, sounds about right. Its interesting to look at, but certainly not gospel.

As for the 2nd part, the last thing a team like the Pistons should be doing IMO is trading away top 10 picks(in a draft that is widely considered to be stronger than average in that area) because they are too impatient to develop the prospects that are available.

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As to the first part, sounds about right. Its interesting to look at, but certainly not gospel.

As for the 2nd part, the last thing a team like the Pistons should be doing IMO is trading away top 10 picks(in a draft that is widely considered to be stronger than average in that area) because they are too impatient to develop the prospects that are available.

How patient is Drummond right about now? Gores? SVG?

--Draft your ready-to-go 4 after trading down and securing either an addition pick or a rotation piece

--Buy a proven SF that can shoot and play D THIS year

--Shop smart in the 2nd round and in FA

--get something of use for BJ or pay him to sit at home. Dude has no business in future plans with his injury and his questionable personal life.

Drafts these days are all about projection. Solid players like Parsons and Green slip as far as the second round every year because of it. Unless the Latvian kid or Russell somehow fall into our lap via trade-up or other miracle, I love trading the pick away for a later pick and an building asset. It could be as simple as trading down to 10 to snag Turner, but I definitely wouldn't trade out of the top 16 or so. Also, I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to drafting Turner straight-up at 8. Better than praying that one of the teenage SF prospects will somehow shoot over 35% from downtown inside of the next two seasons.

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Turner is as much of a project if not more than any of the wings.

He can shoot, rebound and block shots. He doesn't have to learn how to dribble, facilitate or be counted on to knock down 1.5 3s per game.

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He can shoot, rebound and block shots. He doesn't have to learn how to dribble, facilitate or be counted on to knock down 1.5 3s per game.

If it was only that easy.

Can he rebound? His rate was 16% which is slightly above average, but for a 7 footer playing college? I would say that is below average. Winslow was 13%, is 7 inches shorter and played a perimeter position sometimes.

Can he shoot? 45% isn't bad, but Winslow shot 48%.

He can certainly block shots and looks like he has great weakside instincts. But Johnson and Winslow both look like above average defenders who can contribute from day one.

I just don't see Turner being any more ready than the wings in the draft. Sure, a guy like Oubre who is crazy raw, but Johnson and Winslow aren't in that category, and I Don't think Mario is either. As a rule, big men are almost always behind the smaller guys in terms of being ready. They are still growing and adjusting into their large body while gaining coordination and agility.

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If it was only that easy.

Can he rebound? His rate was 16% which is slightly above average, but for a 7 footer playing college? I would say that is below average. Winslow was 13%, is 7 inches shorter and played a perimeter position sometimes.

Can he shoot? 45% isn't bad, but Winslow shot 48%.

He can certainly block shots and looks like he has great weakside instincts. But Johnson and Winslow both look like above average defenders who can contribute from day one.

I just don't see Turner being any more ready than the wings in the draft. Sure, a guy like Oubre who is crazy raw, but Johnson and Winslow aren't in that category, and I Don't think Mario is either. As a rule, big men are almost always behind the smaller guys in terms of being ready. They are still growing and adjusting into their large body while gaining coordination and agility.

Rebounding is definitely a craft, one that young players usually aren't great at in the NBA. Drummond is a generational outlier. Remember how much people dogged Ewing for not dominating the boards when the came into the L? Being around Drummond and probably Hakeem will do nothing but help him. But yeah, he'll still grab a few more rebounds per 36 than Ersan.

Winslow is 6'4.5 in shoes. I know, that wing span though . . . but still, is that long enough for a starting NBA SF? And wasn't Winslow the 3rd option on his own team? I just have some doubts, although as a prospect I like him better than most other SF in this draft.

Mario plays a little stiff, is light in the rear and need seasoning. If we could bring him off the bench for at least a year it would be worth the gamble, and who knows, maybe it is anyways. Will he even be there when we draft?

Johnson, as you have noted previously, wasn't overly impressive in conference play. How will he look when he is a semi-common size per NBA SFs? Will he shoot well enough from deep to keep defenses honsest? If he doesn't, are we ok with him being our defensive stopper? I see shades of a young Artest in him, which is a good thing. Johnson says he played PG at his HS powerhouse, if that means he can be some kind of secondary facilitator down the road then that's awesome--because the Pistons are bankrupt of these.

And yeah, LOL at Ourbe sometimes on the court. He is just so raw, but then you see those moments of brilliance and want to forget. Let's just hope Pop doesn't somehow get ahold of this kid.

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How patient is Drummond right about now? Gores? SVG?

--Draft your ready-to-go 4 after trading down and securing either an addition pick or a rotation piece

--Buy a proven SF that can shoot and play D THIS year

--Shop smart in the 2nd round and in FA

--get something of use for BJ or pay him to sit at home. Dude has no business in future plans with his injury and his questionable personal life.

Drafts these days are all about projection. Solid players like Parsons and Green slip as far as the second round every year because of it. Unless the Latvian kid or Russell somehow fall into our lap via trade-up or other miracle, I love trading the pick away for a later pick and an building asset. It could be as simple as trading down to 10 to snag Turner, but I definitely wouldn't trade out of the top 16 or so. Also, I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to drafting Turner straight-up at 8. Better than praying that one of the teenage SF prospects will somehow shoot over 35% from downtown inside of the next two seasons.

I'll always explore getting value, I just highly doubt its the best move for us in the end. How patient are those guys? I don't know, but that doesn't mean impatience will breed results

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Rebounding is definitely a craft, one that young players usually aren't great at in the NBA. Drummond is a generational outlier. Remember how much people dogged Ewing for not dominating the boards when the came into the L? Being around Drummond and probably Hakeem will do nothing but help him. But yeah, he'll still grab a few more rebounds per 36 than Ersan.

Winslow is 6'4.5 in shoes. I know, that wing span though . . . but still, is that long enough for a starting NBA SF? And wasn't Winslow the 3rd option on his own team? I just have some doubts, although as a prospect I like him better than most other SF in this draft.

Mario plays a little stiff, is light in the rear and need seasoning. If we could bring him off the bench for at least a year it would be worth the gamble, and who knows, maybe it is anyways. Will he even be there when we draft?

Johnson, as you have noted previously, wasn't overly impressive in conference play. How will he look when he is a semi-common size per NBA SFs? Will he shoot well enough from deep to keep defenses honsest? If he doesn't, are we ok with him being our defensive stopper? I see shades of a young Artest in him, which is a good thing. Johnson says he played PG at his HS powerhouse, if that means he can be some kind of secondary facilitator down the road then that's awesome--because the Pistons are bankrupt of these.

And yeah, LOL at Ourbe sometimes on the court. He is just so raw, but then you see those moments of brilliance and want to forget. Let's just hope Pop doesn't somehow get ahold of this kid.

Rebounding is one thing that guys almost never improve on fwiw

Winslow has the same standing reach as guys like Jimmy Butler and Harrison Barnes(who plays a lot of stretch 4 let alone 3). I don't see Winslow as raw at all. I'd certainly like him to improve on certain areas, but I feel like there are certain things that I 100% know Winslow will do for me. Hezonja too, but the Euros are harder to project for me.

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