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RedRamage

What's wrong with the Offense?

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Cousins is awful, but not the point. I wouldn't have minded drafting a QB this year, nor will I next.

Never said he was good, but I would rather spent a 4th on him than three firsts and a second on RG3. I also think a Cousins-esque player would be a better backup than Dan O.

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A week ago he was 10th in QBR. Lets not get carried away. The guy was top 6 in yards,TDs, 1st downs passed for and 3rd down conversion % last year. 7th highest QB on PFF. He also ranked lower than I'd like in QBR and passer rating, so I'm not saying there are no issues, but its not like he hasn't performed at all.

The problem with most of those stats is that they are supplemented by volume passing. Personally I would rather look at completion %, yards/average, TD%, INT%, etc. to remove the volume of passing out of the equation as much as possible.

Comp% (out of QBs who started at least 7 games): #30 of 38

Yards/Attempt: #13

Yards/Completion: #8

TD%: #14

INT%: #26 (12th highest)

Passer Rating: #20

QBR: #21

I am surprised that PFF has him so high, but then again I don't know how they break down quarterback rankings. The only reason I pointed out these numbers is because I don't think Stafford was a top 6 or 7 QB last year, I think he was much closer to average which the ratio numbers suggest. Now, conversely, I am not saying Stafford is garbage and should be released...I just think he has been very average production wise the last few years.

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The problem with most of those stats is that they are supplemented by volume passing. Personally I would rather look at completion %, yards/average, TD%, INT%, etc. to remove the volume of passing out of the equation as much as possible.

Comp% (out of QBs who started at least 7 games): #30 of 38

Yards/Attempt: #13

Yards/Completion: #8

TD%: #14

INT%: #26 (12th highest)

Passer Rating: #20

QBR: #21

I am surprised that PFF has him so high, but then again I don't know how they break down quarterback rankings. The only reason I pointed out these numbers is because I don't think Stafford was a top 6 or 7 QB last year, I think he was much closer to average which the ratio numbers suggest. Now, conversely, I am not saying Stafford is garbage and should be released...I just think he has been very average production wise the last few years.

Removing volume out of the equation has the same negative effect on the overall picture as looking at counting stats. Staffords counting stats are so high because for a large part of his career the lions run game has not been respectable. If you are just looking at the ratio stats, you are giving a significant advantage to QBs that aren't asked to be the focal point of offenses. For instance, if I have Marshawn Lynch as my RB, I would expect my QB to be completing almost all his passes. Not to mention Yards/Attempt, Yards/Completion and TD% are largely offensive scheme dependent.

I suspect his real value is somewhere between these ratio stats and the counting stats.

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Removing volume out of the equation has the same negative effect on the overall picture as looking at counting stats. Staffords counting stats are so high because for a large part of his career the lions run game has not been respectable. If you are just looking at the ratio stats, you are giving a significant advantage to QBs that aren't asked to be the focal point of offenses. For instance, if I have Marshawn Lynch as my RB, I would expect my QB to be completing almost all his passes. Not to mention Yards/Attempt, Yards/Completion and TD% are largely offensive scheme dependent.

I suspect his real value is somewhere between these ratio stats and the counting stats.

I agree to an extent. His yards/TD/etc. are also heavily influenced by other players (OL, if he throws a short pass and the receiver runs 80+ yards for a TD, etc.). And I don't think any stats should be used as the be-all-end all of judging QBs, everything should be used in conjunction with other factors like the eye-ball test. I think outside of Lion's fans many people view Stafford as somewhere just outside the top 10 range; 12-17 seems about the correct range, I don't think that because he throws the ball a lot and gets an above average amount of yards and TDs that we should vault him into a higher bracket.

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For where he was picked relative to the results he has produced, yes, partially. I say partially because he's had other issues to deal with like lousy coaching, Titus Young Sr., etc. In four full seasons he has one playoff appearance, in a season where his team didn't beat one team with a winning record and had a string of late game miracles. Rodgers had a Super Bowl and three playoff appearances in his first four as a starter.

Want to compare the teams Rodgers has had to play with what Stafford has had? Have you watched how bad the OL has played this year? The drops by his WR's? Do you realize he is only 6 games in to a new system and given how the new CBA works, teams barely get practice time anymore? Would you rather Dan O or Shaun Hill be leading this team?

Some people just have unrealistic expectations for players, or cannot look at facts from an unbiased point of view, or just flat out need to ***** no matter the results.

Do I think Stafford is perfect? Absolutely not. He can improve on accuracy, but I do also recognize that some factors are out of his control. Bad OL, drops, etc. I do think his decision making has been much better this season, and will only get better with more time in Lombardi's system. He may not be lighting up the stat sheet, but they'd be 5-1, possibly 6-0 with a FG kicker.

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The offense, even with the win on Sunday, was flat once again. I won't say terrible, just flat. Now, I'd being willing to put a portion of the blame on our lack of depth at wide receiver and who Stafford has to throw to. The guy isn't given much, but he doesn't create much for himself either as far as his receivers go. Going into the draft this past off-season I was clamoring for the Lions to pick up another wideout in the first round because of the fact that their offense stagnates without Calvin in the game. That proved true once again Sunday. However, Stafford still shoulders a good portion of the blame in my eyes, even with the win, for a flat offensive performance on Sunday.

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Yeah, I hate quarterbacks that win games even when they look flat. He threw for 300 yards and 2 scores. Should have scored earlier too if Thompson didn't throw up all over himself and give the ball to the saints.

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Yeah, I hate quarterbacks that win games even when they look flat. He threw for 300 yards and 2 scores. Should have scored earlier too if Thompson didn't throw up all over himself and give the ball to the saints.
Who is to say Matt won't lead a team to the Super Bowl?
Also, not a fan of the Super Bowl argument anyway.

Some absolutely pedestrian QBs have led teams to Super Bowls.

Agreed, agreed, and agreed.

I don't care how the Lions win. They can play like crap and win. Just win

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Yeah, I hate quarterbacks that win games even when they look flat. He threw for 300 yards and 2 scores. Should have scored earlier too if Thompson didn't throw up all over himself and give the ball to the saints.

the thompson pick was a bad pass by stafford also. He was bailed out by tate on the td, and by a dodgy pass interference call at the end. But he was not good for most of that game.

he's currently ranked 29th in the league on pff. Take that for what its worth, and i have my reservations about their ranking system, but if stafford were having a decent year he wouldnt be 29th...

i think stafford has been better at the one thing that has killed him and the lions in the past: turnovers. Part of that might be maturity, but i think at least some of it is coaching. He doesnt seem to be making as many stupid mistakes this year.

he wont lead the league in yards, but he doesnt have to if the defense keeps playing this well. Just keep not turning the ball over and the lions will have a shot in every game.

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Also, not a fan of the Super Bowl argument anyway.

Some absolutely pedestrian QBs have led teams to Super Bowls.

Pedestrian QB's whose teams were either really solid on one side of the ball (which the Lions are on Defense thus far) or who themselves got red hot (Joe Flacco) at the right time of the season. I want to be proven wrong, I just don't see Stafford as a Super Bowl guy. Now, our defense could carry us to big heights this season, Stafford could heat up at some point or both. As a Lions fan and Stafford critic like everyone else here, I don't see and I'm not buying into anything, yet.

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I'd say:

Stafford isn't playing as well as he should, even the people who don't like him would probably say he CAN play better, and has in the past.

The offensive line has been a disaster, both in run and pass blocking.

The tight ends have been utterly useless. Who would have thought that Fauria getting hurt would be such a big blow?

Ross has been awful outside of the occasional big play, and Fuller was anonymous until the 2nd half vs New Orleans. I think this lets the defense key in on the RBs, leaving Tate as the only player that can really do anything.

The RBs have both been pretty bad in most aspects of the game (Bell especially, which is disappointing as I still think he's the better player of the two)

So, reasons for optimism: Even if he's prone to dumb interceptions, Stafford can definitely up his game. Calvin coming back really will make a massive difference, I think it's reasonable to expect that at the least Bell, Warford, and Waddle will up their game, and it's not impossible that Ebron will improve or that Fauria will come back and at least add a weapon in the passing game. And maybe Fuller is ready to step up and provide a bit more.

Pessimism - Stafford is a turnover prone QB, and putting a turnover prone QB in front of a bad O-Line with little run game sounds very very dangerous.

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Ross has been awful outside of the occasional big play, and Fuller was anonymous until the 2nd half vs New Orleans. I think this lets the defense key in on the RBs, leaving Tate as the only player that can really do anything.

Why pick out Ross specifically? He is a good returner and catches the passes that are thrown to him. Awful doesn't seem to fit.

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The offense, even with the win on Sunday, was flat once again. I won't say terrible, just flat. Now, I'd being willing to put a portion of the blame on our lack of depth at wide receiver and who Stafford has to throw to. The guy isn't given much, but he doesn't create much for himself either as far as his receivers go. Going into the draft this past off-season I was clamoring for the Lions to pick up another wideout in the first round because of the fact that their offense stagnates without Calvin in the game. That proved true once again Sunday. However, Stafford still shoulders a good portion of the blame in my eyes, even with the win, for a flat offensive performance on Sunday.

Stafford deserves some of the blame but the majority of the blame has to be placed on the offensive line. They rarely open up any holes for the runners (especially in the first half of games) and give Stafford little time to throw. You put that offensive line in front of Manning even and I bet that he has periods of struggles.

It doesn't help that CJ, Bush for most of the game, Ebron and Riddick have been in and out of the lineup. That's your big play guy and 3 reliable check down options out of the lineup so it greatly limits the options Stafford had to throw to even when he had time.

Stafford needs to be better though, no question. Too nervous in the pocket and he's rushing his throws too often.

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the thompson pick was a bad pass by stafford also. He was bailed out by tate on the td, and by a dodgy pass interference call at the end. But he was not good for most of that game.

he's currently ranked 29th in the league on pff. Take that for what its worth, and i have my reservations about their ranking system, but if stafford were having a decent year he wouldnt be 29th...

i think stafford has been better at the one thing that has killed him and the lions in the past: turnovers. Part of that might be maturity, but i think at least some of it is coaching. He doesnt seem to be making as many stupid mistakes this year.

he wont lead the league in yards, but he doesnt have to if the defense keeps playing this well. Just keep not turning the ball over and the lions will have a shot in every game.

As long as you say the reverse about him being 7th last year.

Disagree on the Thompson pick being a bad pass.

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Pedestrian QB's whose teams were either really solid on one side of the ball (which the Lions are on Defense thus far) or who themselves got red hot (Joe Flacco) at the right time of the season. I want to be proven wrong, I just don't see Stafford as a Super Bowl guy. Now, our defense could carry us to big heights this season, Stafford could heat up at some point or both. As a Lions fan and Stafford critic like everyone else here, I don't see and I'm not buying into anything, yet.

If Trent Dilfer can be a Super Bowl guy, than Matt Stafford can be a Super Bowl guy.

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I agree to an extent. His yards/TD/etc. are also heavily influenced by other players (OL, if he throws a short pass and the receiver runs 80+ yards for a TD, etc.). And I don't think any stats should be used as the be-all-end all of judging QBs, everything should be used in conjunction with other factors like the eye-ball test. I think outside of Lion's fans many people view Stafford as somewhere just outside the top 10 range; 12-17 seems about the correct range, I don't think that because he throws the ball a lot and gets an above average amount of yards and TDs that we should vault him into a higher bracket.

12-17 might be fair, but I might put him a little higher. Here's some production stats that I feel are pretty important

- Has lead the 4th,13th and 17th ranked scoring offenses the last 3 years, average of just over 11.

- Has lead the 3rd,5th and 6th ranked offense in terms of yardage

- Has had the 23rd ranked run game on average behind him. (29,23,17)

- Has never in his career had a WR rank in the top 50 on PFF other than Calvin Johnson. Tate most likely will change that this year though.

- His starting TE has ranked around 50th over the last years. Guys like Fauria and Scheffler have ranked decent though.

- Given those numbers, though I don't care to do the work to figure it out, I'd be that his weapons rank somewhere in the 20s.

Looking at all of that, I think you'd have to say that Stafford produces an offense that is generally significantly better than what his supporting cast would suggest it should be. Calvin is obviously a huge factor as well, but he catches about 1500 of the 4500+ yards we ask Stafford to throw for in a given year.

Edit - One more factor to throw out there. Historically, high end WRs and TEs, particularly high end WRs and TEs who are tall, are who catch TDs, no matter the QB.

Edited by Nastradamus

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If you could get Vince Jackson for a 3rd, and they could fit him under the cap for this year, would you pull the trigger? He's supposedly on the block.

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If Trent Dilfer can be a Super Bowl guy, than Matt Stafford can be a Super Bowl guy.

Trent Dilfer had an amazing defense backing him up. Now, Matt Stafford has had that thus far this year. If the Lions defense can keep it up, that is the kind of thing that can propel a team into a Super Bowl. My doubts are in the Lions defense actually keeping it up. I don't know that Dilfer put Baltimore in a Super Bowl as much as he did enough not to screw up and keep them out of one. Just as I don't think tremendous play by Stafford would lift us into the Super Bowl. I think someone/s else is going to have to carry him there.

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If you could get Vince Jackson for a 3rd, and they could fit him under the cap for this year, would you pull the trigger? He's supposedly on the block.

If you're willing to piss away picks in the first and second rounds on guys like Brandon Pettigrew, Jahvid Best, Titus Young and Mikael LaShoure and you're invested for life in Matt Stafford then I think you make that trade in a second.

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If you're willing to piss away picks in the first and second rounds on guys like Brandon Pettigrew, Jahvid Best, Titus Young and Mikael LaShoure and you're invested for life in Matt Stafford then I think you make that trade in a second.

That's kind of what I was thinking. It would be a ballsy, go for it kind of move. I doubt we could fit him under the cap though.

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If you could get Vince Jackson for a 3rd, and they could fit him under the cap for this year, would you pull the trigger? He's supposedly on the block.

For a third????? In a heartbeat.

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