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2014-15 Off-season Thread

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I think the Tigers may buy him out; its mostly because they cannot rely on him, but I think a small part is also they are concerned about his health. I know I am.

Yeah, there is a very strong chance Alex Avila is going to cause himself serious, permanent damage next time he is hit in the head. It won't even need to be a hard hit because of the cumulative effect of the various concussions.

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I think the Tigers may buy him out; its mostly because they cannot rely on him, but I think a small part is also they are concerned about his health. I know I am.

He's averaged 114 games the last three seasons. 124 in 2014. That's pretty typical usage for a starting catcher, sans the really elite guys. Concussions aside, I don't think you can say we haven't been able to rely upon him.

His buyout is $200k. And there are probably better ways to spend $5 million and change. But a McCann/Holaday combination leaves a lot to be desired. And you might spend most of that money just trying to replace Avila .

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I can see Avila being a manager one day. If he does decide to retire, I wouldn't mind seeing him stay in the organization in some sort of coaching role.

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I don't believe avila would need to be bought out. He's entering his final arb year and could just be non tendered.

Given his concussion issues, it's tricky. If he wants to play and we let him go, someone will sign him. If he's going to play anyway, might as well be for the Tigers. He has a decision to make. The Tigers can't make it for him.

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Alex has made roughly $8.5 M in his career.

Next season he is set to make $5.5 M.

I know money isn't everything, but he can earn 65% of his career earnings to date just attempting to play baseball next year, and that isn't insignificant.

The Tigers are not likely to get a similar or better option at or below $5.5 M.

I'd guess it boils down to what the doctors say. If he can't recover or they estimate one more shot will create long term effects, I'd guess he'd retire. If they estimate he can try one more time, my guess is he plays.

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I don't believe avila would need to be bought out. He's entering his final arb year and could just be non tendered.

His contract last season included an option for $5.4 million in 2015, with a $200k buyout.

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Given his concussion issues, it's tricky. If he wants to play and we let him go, someone will sign him. If he's going to play anyway, might as well be for the Tigers. He has a decision to make. The Tigers can't make it for him.

Beat me to the post and made the same point more succinctly.

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I don't believe avila would need to be bought out. He's entering his final arb year and could just be non tendered.

Given his concussion issues, it's tricky. If he wants to play and we let him go, someone will sign him. If he's going to play anyway, might as well be for the Tigers. He has a decision to make. The Tigers can't make it for him.

I think if we knew he could actually play a full season, then I would agree with this. But my fear would be that we give him the $5M and then he gets another concussion in April or May, misses the rest of the year and we have to go spend more coin or give up prospects to get a reliable catcher. Not sure how well covered we would be insurance-wise if this happened either. Seems to me he's a pretty high risk at this point, so I don't imagine we'd get much bang for our buck with coverage, but then again I have no earthly idea on that.

I'd buy him out/non-tender him and spend the money to fix the situation now rather than having to do it once the season has started.

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I don't believe avila would need to be bought out. He's entering his final arb year and could just be non tendered.

Given his concussion issues, it's tricky. If he wants to play and we let him go, someone will sign him. If he's going to play anyway, might as well be for the Tigers. He has a decision to make. The Tigers can't make it for him.

To avoid arbitration last year, he agreed to $5.4M salaray for 2015, with a $200K buyout.

To me his concussions are getting worse/more frequent. Its corny, but he and his dad are part of the Tigers Family. Its a hard call to make either way

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I can see Avila being a manager one day. If he does decide to retire, I wouldn't mind seeing him stay in the organization in some sort of coaching role.

If he becomes the manager some day, I predict that fans will hate him and criticize every move and say he only has the job because of his father.

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I think if we knew he could actually play a full season, then I would agree with this. But my fear would be that we give him the $5M and then he gets another concussion in April or May, misses the rest of the year and we have to go spend more coin or give up prospects to get a reliable catcher. Not sure how well covered we would be insurance-wise if this happened either. Seems to me he's a pretty high risk at this point, so I don't imagine we'd get much bang for our buck with coverage, but then again I have no earthly idea on that.

I'd buy him out/non-tender him and spend the money to fix the situation now rather than having to do it once the season has started.

Is it possible to fix the situation now for that money?

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If he becomes the manager some day, I predict that fans will hate him and criticize every move and say he only has the job because of his father.

Not if he has a baller mustache.

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So if salary does currently sit closer the the $160 million mark, there's going to need to be some creative maneuvering to improve the team. I can't see payroll going up dramatically, especially when fan enthusiasm is dwindling. We didn't hit 3 million this year, and I doubt we will next. At this point the regular season is meaningless, so what do you expect? Maybe if the team was good enough to compete for best record in the AL things would be a little better.

I could see them not picking up Soria's $10 million option. Nathan retiring would be real nice too, but I don't think it happens. Could they possibly dangle Sanchez as trade bait? I think we could patch a lot of holes with his $16.8 million, and the starting market looks pretty good.

Price, Verlander, Porcello is still an enviable 1-3 (if Verlander returns to normal.) I think I'd rather go into the season with a weaker back end of the rotation but significantly improved team defense and bullpen.

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Alex has made roughly $8.5 M in his career.

Next season he is set to make $5.5 M.

I know money isn't everything, but he can earn 65% of his career earnings to date just attempting to play baseball next year, and that isn't insignificant.

The Tigers are not likely to get a similar or better option at or below $5.5 M.

I'd guess it boils down to what the doctors say. If he can't recover or they estimate one more shot will create long term effects, I'd guess he'd retire. If they estimate he can try one more time, my guess is he plays.

Considering he's looking at an injury-shortened career, most likely, I would think that he's incentivized to try to collect that $5.4 million from the Tigers. That's enough to set-up his family for a lifetime, if they plan it out carefully.

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I think if we knew he could actually play a full season, then I would agree with this. But my fear would be that we give him the $5M and then he gets another concussion in April or May, misses the rest of the year and we have to go spend more coin or give up prospects to get a reliable catcher. .

This is a very possible outcome. It's a complicated situation though because of the reasons Shelton said. Additionally, with all the attention now being given to concussions, it wouldn't make the Tigers look good to nontender in order to avoid the above scenario. I think it has to be left up to him.

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Not if he has a baller mustache.

Good point. He definitely has a talent for growing facial hair which is a plus for any managerial candidate.

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This is a very possible outcome. It's a complicated situation though because of the reasons Shelton said. Additionally, with all the attention now being given to concussions, it wouldn't make the Tigers look good to nontender in order to avoid the above scenario. I think it has to be left up to him.

I might argue that buying out Avila now could make the Tigers look very good - we cannot in good conscience continue to put Alex out there.

Also, the extra $5.4M he is going to make might need to go to specialized care for him at 60 if things go really bad (like Kevin Turner bad, or even Junior Seau bad)

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So if salary does currently sit closer the the $160 million mark, there's going to need to be some creative maneuvering to improve the team. I can't see payroll going up dramatically, especially when fan enthusiasm is dwindling. We didn't hit 3 million this year, and I doubt we will next. At this point the regular season is meaningless, so what do you expect? Maybe if the team was good enough to compete for best record in the AL things would be a little better.

I could see them not picking up Soria's $10 million option. Nathan retiring would be real nice too, but I don't think it happens. Could they possibly dangle Sanchez as trade bait? I think we could patch a lot of holes with his $16.8 million, and the starting market looks pretty good.

Price, Verlander, Porcello is still an enviable 1-3 (if Verlander returns to normal.) I think I'd rather go into the season with a weaker back end of the rotation but significantly improved team defense and bullpen.

Soria's option is for $7 million, but I think that is a poor move to dump him given he's been one of the top RP in the game and still relatively young (poor performance for the Tigers aside).

Better to buyout Avila, and non-tender Dirks and Kelly. That saves you about $8 million. Maybe then you have enough juice to re-sign VMart. It's hard to imagine this team without him, even with him coming back down to earth in 2015.

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Considering he's looking at an injury-shortened career, most likely, I would think that he's incentivized to try to collect that $5.4 million from the Tigers. That's enough to set-up his family for a lifetime, if they plan it out carefully.

I agree.

I'd guess a doctor has to tell Alex he has to retire for Alex to step away.

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I might argue that buying out Avila now could make the Tigers look very good - we cannot in good conscience continue to put Alex out there.

Also, the extra $5.4M he is going to make might need to go to specialized care for him at 60 if things go really bad (like Kevin Turner bad, or even Junior Seau bad)

I'm not sure what you mean by buying out. Wouldn't they just non-tender him?

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I'm not sure what you mean by buying out. Wouldn't they just non-tender him?

I believe he signed a two year contract with an option for this year. The buyout is only 200k.

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Wow...just finished watching the last couple of innings of the 3 games between L.A. and K.C....watching Holland and Davis "carve up" the Angels was tantamount to viewing a work of art. Total control, composure and professional approach, with mega confidence. OTOH....the Tigers relievers, collectively, looked as though they were ready to "soil themselves" before they threw their first pitch. Huge difference in compotment compared to the Tigers "arson squad", shaking in their boots at every juncture.

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I believe he signed a two year contract with an option for this year. The buyout is only 200k.

Ok, thanks. It still doesn't seem to me like this would make them look good given the circumstances. I think it would come off as "we don't want to deal with the uncertainty of the concussion situation, so we'll just dump him" I think it would have to be a mutual decision.

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