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2014-15 Off-season Thread

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I think an important thing moving forward is how much more time does Castellanos get a third without demonstrating significant improvement before it is decided he can not play 3rd base at an adequate enough level?

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Per Fangraphs:

2012: Aoki was 7th out of 18 qualified RF in UZR/150 (had to set cut-off at more than 850 defensive innings) (UZR/150 = 4.5)

2013: Aoki was 8th out of 18 qualified RF in UZR/150 (UZR/150 = 4.3)

2014: Aoki was 6th out of 15 qualified RF in UZR/150 (UZR/150 = 7.7)

I will agree those numbers probably don't mean he is 'good' RF, but I also think he has demonstrated he is an above average RF.

I will amend my statement to say I think Aoki is a guy that will OPS+ right around 100, runs well and plays an above average RF.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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If Castellanos can't play 3B, then he can't play anywhere. He's a worse OF -- he's been playing 3B for most of his time in the organization. He only started playing left a couple years ago when we signed Prince, and it didn't sound like he got very good at it. Now, in theory, you can hide a bad defender in the OF more than you can at 3B, but ultimately I'm not sure which is worse. We're probably just going to have to accept his defensive deficiencies and hope that his bat develops into a .325 OBP/25 HR/90 RBI type consistently.

As for signing Billy Butler, no thanks. He looks pretty much done. He's not even playing regularly for the Royals at this point.

If Victor leaves (which I don't think he will) it would give us a lot more flexibility in the DH spot. But that's like saying if only Jessica Biel would divorce me, I'd have more time to date hot women.

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I wouldn't mind Aoki to play RF and lead off and drop Kinsler to 2nd. Another interesting free agent from Kansas City is Hocheaver. He was good out of relief and could be an interesting project.

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Nick Markakis is a free agent as well. Could be another option. I had confused him with Aoki in defense. Markakis has not been good except for this year.

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In typical Tigers fashion, I suspect we will see a move very soon regarding VMart. And I expect him to re-sign.

I think it will be less than people expect too. 2/25-30. How many teams are really in the market for him?

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The thing about Avila now is that every time he gets hit in the head, it causes problems whereas in the past he would get hit and be able to continue playing. That seems like a really bad sign. I think he may be forced to retire.

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After his third concussion? He might not have a choice.

Wes Welker just got like his 5th concussion and he came back without blinking. If someone is paying Avila he will play.

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The thing about Avila now is that every time he gets hit in the head, it causes problems whereas in the past he would get hit and be able to continue playing. That seems like a really bad sign. I think he may be forced to retire.

It's to the point where I expect him to come out of the game if he gets hit. That's just not something you should mess around with.

I could see giving it one more go with a different mask and more of a crouched stance, but we'll see.

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Nick Markakis is a free agent as well. Could be another option. I had confused him with Aoki in defense. Markakis has not been good except for this year.

Markakis has said before he would like to stay with Baltimore for his Career. Coming into this season it was in doubt because he had fallen off. But he is still one of the most loved guys on the team with Jones.

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Russell Martin is available if Avila doesn't come back. He's basically Avila. Low average high walk guy. At least he is a little bit better base runner.

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It will be an interesting offseason. The 3 keys to next year will be

- Do we have Victor and can he continue to perform at a high level?

- Can Cabrera and Verlander get back to their dominating selves?

- Can the bullpen turn it around, starting with Soria?

We obviously have other issues. OF,C, do we keep Kinsler, who's our 5th starter, the bench, but I think those 3 issues will determine how good this team is.

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It's to the point where I expect him to come out of the game if he gets hit. That's just not something you should mess around with.

I could see giving it one more go with a different mask and more of a crouched stance, but we'll see.

It's never an easy decision to walk away from the game, so you are right that it might not happen right away. He's not likely to have a long career though and I don't think you can count on him to give you a full season anymore.

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I show that the Tigers have already committed over $160 million to their 2015 roster, including 30 players and the $6 million that we send to Texas for Fielder. There is no Hunter, VMart, Joba, or Scherzer in these numbers.


1 Cabrera 22.000 Contract
2 Verlander 28.000 Contract
3 Kinsler 16.000 Contract
4 Sanchez 16.750 Contract
5 Nathan 10.000 Contract
6 Davis 5.000 Contract
7 Price 20.000 Arb 14 last year
8 Porcello 11.000 Arb 8.5 last year
9 Soria 7.000 Option 500k buyout
10 Avila 5.400 Option 200k buyout
11 Iglesias 1.750 Arb 1.65 last year
12 Dirks 1.625 Arb 1.625 last year
13 Kelly 1.250 Arb 1 last year
14 AlAl 1.400 Arb 837k last year
15 Putkonen 0.550 Pre-Arb 510k last year
16 Rondon 0.550 Pre-Arb 505k last year
17 Romine 0.750 Pre-Arb 504k last year
18 Krol 0.750 Pre-Arb 504k last year
19 Reed 0.550 Pre-Arb 503k last year
20 Holaday 0.750 Pre-Arb 502k last year
21 Castellanous 0.900 Pre-Arb 500k last year
22 JD Martinez 1.000 Pre-Arb Minor League Contract
23 Carerra 0.550 Pre-Arb Minor League Contract
24 Perez 0.550 Pre-Arb
25 Lobstein 0.550 Pre-Arb
26 McCann 0.510 Pre-Arb
27 Ray 0.510 Pre-Arb
28 Collins 0.550 Pre-Arb 500k last year
29 Suarez 0.750 Pre-Arb 500k last year
30 Hardy 0.550 Pre-Arb Minor League Contract

157.495

Edited by ballmich

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It's to the point where I expect him to come out of the game if he gets hit. That's just not something you should mess around with.

I could see giving it one more go with a different mask and more of a crouched stance, but we'll see.

I saw someone mention the old school mask earlier. Those things are really heavy and I wonder how much that does have to do with him getting concussed. I remember it straining my neck while trying to keep my head straight.

I have a hockey style umpire mask and prefer it to the old school mask. It's just as easy to flip off and is more comfortable than a batting helmet/mask.

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I only see 98 million before arb.

As I said, I've included 30 players and the money we owe Texas for Fielder. I've also assumed arbitration increases for guys like Price and Porcello, and increases for pre-arb guys. I've also assumed we pick up the options on Soria and Avila. If you do all of that, and my salary assumptions are close, you get to around $163 million.

Edited by ballmich

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As I said, I've included 30 players and the money we owe Texas for Fielder. I've also assumed arbitration increases for guys like Price and Porcello, and increases for pre-arb guys. I've also assumed we pick up the options on Soria and Avila.

Fielder's money isn't due until 2016. They're losing 42 million in guarantees between Scherzer, Hunter, and Martinez. I'm not seeing where 60 million is coming from in arb. There's only two big arb cases with Price and Porcello.

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I show that the Tigers have already committed over $160 million to their 2015 roster, including 30 players and the $6 million that we send to Texas for Fielder. There is no Hunter, VMart, Joba, or Scherzer in these numbers.

If I can remember how to paste in a chart from excel, I'll edit my post to add my chart.

That's also close to what I have for 23 guys, with one RP slot open and CF open.

I included vmart at 12 million and have it around 170 or so.

But the fielder money doesn't start until 2016, so your number would be 154 without vmart, but including a handful of bench guys that I don't have listed.

Maybe my arb estimates are a bit higher than yours.

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Fielder's money isn't due until 2016. They're losing 42 million in guarantees between Scherzer, Hunter, and Martinez. I'm not seeing where 60 million is coming from in arb. There's only two big arb cases with Price and Porcello.

Fair enough on Fielder, so I get $157 million then.

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That's also close to what I have for 23 guys, with one RP slot open and CF open.

I included vmart at 12 million and have it around 170 or so.

But the fielder money doesn't start until 2016, so your number would be 154 without vmart, but including a handful of bench guys that I don't have listed.

Maybe my arb estimates are a bit higher than yours.

I pasted my excel chart into my previous post. It's not formatting correctly, but I can't fix that apparently.

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The thing about Avila now is that every time he gets hit in the head, it causes problems whereas in the past he would get hit and be able to continue playing. That seems like a really bad sign. I think he may be forced to retire.

I think the Tigers may buy him out; its mostly because they cannot rely on him, but I think a small part is also they are concerned about his health. I know I am.

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