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davidsb

10/03/2014: Detroit Tigers (Verlander) at Baltimore Orioles (Chen) – 12:07p

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As for Ausmus: I think you all heard or read by now his comments after the game: he did not consider Alburquerque because he's a sixth and seventh inning guy only. So my prediction for tomorrow is, Ausmus is going to push Price to go the entire game, even if Price gives up five or six runs in eight innings. As long as he does not get shelled in any one inning, he's running Price out there in the eighth and ninth. And if Ausmus has to use relievers? Look for Alburquerque only before the eighth, Joba/Coke/Soria in the eighth, and Nathan in the ninth, regardless of whether we are up or down. This is the strategy which brung him to the dance, and Brad is not going to dump her now.

I would bet Sanchez is out for Sunday.

I did read that. Keeping that thought in mind, that AlAl is a 6th or 7th inning guy, and add this thought that Brad had already made up his mind that if he had to use Sanchez he had a 35 pitch limit. Now add in that we just saw, not even 18 hours prior, Joba implode on the mound and the fact that he had a very poor second half of the season.

Why couldn't AlAl been deployed in relief of JV? If AlAl had gone out and gotten through the inning, then bring in Sanchez for 7 and 8, rolling the dice with Nathan in the 9th and potentially skipping over Joba completely.

If AA get's in, you still can bring in Sanchez in the 6th if he can't do the job.

The rigidity of Brad's thinking and the unwillingness to think even slightly outside the box and his mis-use of the relief staff completely blows my mind.

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I'm not real pissed about this team going out early. It's clearly the worst team they've had since 2011. The offense is still damn good but the rest of it is just not good enough. Starters not historically great like previous few years; Bullpen worse than last year if possible with no Benoit. Remember, Max's performance in Game 4 vs Oakland (bases loaded nobody out) basically got them through the first round. The defense is still terrible of course and the baserunning isn't that much better.

Dave's goal has to be improving run prevention. He is not good at bullpens but what he can do is improve defense. Move Casty off 3rd, put Iggy if healthy at short and find a good defensive CF.

They have to overhaul how they develop relievers but that is a longer term project. Fix defense first and go from there.

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After howling for Soria for the longest time, it's now Albuquerque? When Albuquerque fails, then who are we going to blame Ausmus for not pitching?

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I would take the approach of stockpiling arms and see what works. It seems like teams have had success converting failed starters into relievers like Wade Davis, Luke Hocheaver, and Andrew Miller. I would bring back Hanrahan and do more signings like the Joba signing and see what sticks.

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After howling for Soria for the longest time, it's now Albuquerque? When Albuquerque fails, then who are we going to blame Ausmus for not pitching?

I realize you like to fancy yourself the devil's advocate and the voice of reason, but, respectfully you're full of it on this one.

AlAl Post ASB

1.93 ERA

1.11 WHIP

.185 BAA

18.2 IP (in Aug and Sept)

3BB/18K

Joba Post ASB

4.97 ERA

1.50 WHIP

.271 BAA

19 IP (Aug and Sept)

9/BB 17/K

The choice seems pretty clear to me. AlAl in relief of JV, then Sanchez for 35 pithces (hopefully two innings), then roll the dice with Nathan.

Edit: That's keeping in line with Brad's parameters of rigid thinking on bullpen roles and usage. It's not to say how I think it should have been played out.

Edited by rhino

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I realize you like to fancy yourself the devil's advocate and the voice of reason, but, respectfully you're full of it on this one.

AlAl Post ASB

1.93 ERA

1.11 WHIP

.185 BAA

18.2 IP (in Aug and Sept)

3BB/18K

Joba Post ASB

4.97 ERA

1.50 WHIP

.271 BAA

19 IP (Aug and Sept)

9/BB 17/K

The choice seems pretty clear to me. AlAl in relief of JV, then Sanchez for 35 pithces (hopefully two innings), then roll the dice with Nathan.

I never mentioned Joba in that post.

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Lets be a bit radical. If not for manager, hire Gardenhire as the hitting coach and teach this team better plate discipline. Or, make VMart a player coach and have him be the hitting instructor. And pay him accordingly. Neither one would probably take that position. Just crazy thoughts.

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After howling for Soria for the longest time, it's now Albuquerque? When Albuquerque fails, then who are we going to blame Ausmus for not pitching?

C'mon.....you think those who wanted to see Soria were being irrational? Soria came here with 45k/6bb in less than 35 innings this year...then got injured. All I wanted to see was if Soria could get it done or not. Clearly at this point he cannot...but it's not like the guys they were pitching were much better.

The same thing applies to AA. I am not confident in AA but if Joba is going to be pitched incessantly and horribly, why not try AA instead? How could he be worse?

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I would take the approach of stockpiling arms and see what works. It seems like teams have had success converting failed starters into relievers like Wade Davis, Luke Hocheaver, and Andrew Miller. I would bring back Hanrahan and do more signings like the Joba signing and see what sticks.

It's not like the Tigers haven't tried this...it's just that they happen to suck very badly at executing it.

I've always thought that bullpens are where GMs and Managers make their money. This is where you find guys off the heap of your rotation, farm system (or of others') and you plug them in and see what works. Our current GM has been pretty bad at this exercise. I thought Leyland did a pretty good job working with what he had. Ausmus doesn't, but DD is still to blame for providing bad parts.

Leyland always said that he was the one to insist on getting Zumaya on the 2006 team and into the bullpen. Despite the claims of some folks to blame only DD for the bullpen mess, a good Manager can make a positive difference here. Ausmus is not a good manager in that regard. I don't actually blame Ausmus for the failure of the pitchers themselves (Joba and Al were pretty effective when they pitched overall), but Ausmus stuck to his guns with the 7-8-9 assignments beyond the point of failure for the team.

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C'mon.....you think those who wanted to see Soria were being irrational? Soria came here with 45k/6bb in less than 35 innings this year...then got injured. All I wanted to see was if Soria could get it done or not. Clearly at this point he cannot...but it's not like the guys they were pitching were much better.

The same thing applies to AA. I am not confident in AA but if Joba is going to be pitched incessantly and horribly, why not try AA instead? How could he be worse?

I wanted Soria pitching too, but now I see why he shouldn't have been pitching in high leverage situations. It wasn't because Ausmus is a moron who didn't see Soria's talent. I don't want to be an Ausmus apologist because I don't think he's been very good, but sometimes managers know stuff they we don't.

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I wanted Soria pitching too, but now I see why he shouldn't have been pitching in high leverage situations. It wasn't because Ausmus is a moron who didn't see Soria's talent. I don't want to be an Ausmus apologist because I don't think he's been very good, but sometimes managers know stuff they we don't.

I think the whole Soria thing is a muddle....maybe Ausmus was right to hold him out of leverage situations because he wasn't up to snuff, but then maybe Ausmus was wrong to put him in on Friday for the same reason. Or maybe Ausmus just made the best out of an impossible situation? I don't know, but at this point I'm not inclined to give Ausmus any benefit of the doubt, regardless of how blameworthy DD is, how injured anybody is, or how ignorant I may be to the particulars.

Even if Ausmus isn't to blame for how the Soria handling worked out, if Ausmus came with a good track record and clear philosophy I could give him the benefit of the doubt. I realize you're not apologizing/defending Ausmus, but I have been against the Ausmus hiring from day 1 due to lack of experience (plus or minus) nor clear philosophical positives, and every week it seems there's some highly questionable moves/outcomes that deepen my conviction that Ausmus was a bad hire.

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I would like to see an objective/rational/consensus way to evaluate Manager performance, but in reality there's only indirect indicators and theories, which leaves the question largely to subjectivity. This is one reason why I always want to see an experienced, successful manager (and GM) with clear lines of authority, especially for a team that is expected to contend right away. The proven vita adds credibility that helps to deflect criticism and builds trust with the media and fans (and I suspect players probably like that too).

I don't honestly know how anybody can point to anything in Brad's vita that would act as a defense/apology/reason to keep him on, other than the "mlb handbook" get-out-of-jail-free card concept, which I agree will probably save Ausmus' job, but will leave him very vulnerable in 2015 and beyond. The next hire should have a pedigree, something that can be called upon and defended when the inevitable rough spots come.

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Some things which Ausmus may have brought to the team are:

(1) Getting pitchers to hold runners on base better, thus increasing Avila's CS% from 17% to 34%.

(2) Efficient use of defensive shifts - Tigers have saved more runs per shift than any team. Not sure how good of a thing that is, but it seems like a positive.

(3) Decreased use of sacrifice bunt.

I'm not sure how much he had to do with any of that but those seem like positive things that could be influenced by a manager. I'm just trying to look deeper into Ausmus's managing than the the things we usually talk about with managers.

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The reason this happened is that this game thread was started before the end of the previous game when the collapse was still writhing about on the field. That jinxed this game.

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I'm going to the game on Sunday (my first playoff game ever!) and I'm going to enjoy every minute of it. It will be a wonderful day. The Tigers are going to win. Book it.

If it works, we need to pass the hat to get you into games 4 & 5.

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Is it now an assumption that Soria is a lousy reliever? He's not been good in his short time as a Tiger, true. I just wonder if he's still in recovery from injury and not worthy of being buried for the rest of his career. It seems as if some want him ridden out of town with Chamberlain.

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Is it now an assumption that Soria is a lousy reliever? He's not been good in his short time as a Tiger, true. I just wonder if he's still in recovery from injury and not worthy of being buried for the rest of his career. It seems as if some want him ridden out of town with Chamberlain.

It's an assumption but it may just be a passing thing. Who knows? He was lights out with Texas right up to the point we got him and crummy from that point forward (obviously the injury was involved too).

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It's an assumption but it may just be a passing thing. Who knows? He was lights out with Texas right up to the point we got him and crummy from that point forward (obviously the injury was involved too).

Maybe I don't know enough about Soria. Is he injury prone? Compared to the rest of the flotsam in the bullpen, a $7 million option seems easy to pick up. Then again, this assumes he can recover completely and he gets used properly. Maybe that's too big of an assumption.

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I have to believe Soria's Detroit downfall is due to injury. The nature of the injury is not especially worrisome I suspect he'll fully recover and be back next year.

This is not a Veras situation. DD traded two of his best chips to get Soria, in large part bc he was signed to a reasonable contract for 2015.

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Some things which Ausmus may have brought to the team are:

(1) Getting pitchers to hold runners on base better, thus increasing Avila's CS% from 17% to 34%.

(2) Efficient use of defensive shifts - Tigers have saved more runs per shift than any team. Not sure how good of a thing that is, but it seems like a positive.

(3) Decreased use of sacrifice bunt.

I'm not sure how much he had to do with any of that but those seem like positive things that could be influenced by a manager. I'm just trying to look deeper into Ausmus's managing than the the things we usually talk about with managers.

TBH, I don't really think I have been anymore frustrated by Ausmus this season than I ever was at the end of a Leyland season. A few things stand out as 'rookie mistakes' such as using a no doubles D with a two run lead and two outs and missing at least one double switch opportunity; and I didn't like that he let his starters talk their way into staying in games, but I can cut some slack on that being something a rookie manager may be constrained to do at least once with a Cy Young winner. But overall the bad bullpen and short, poor bench didn't give him many levers to work with. And Don Kelly got substantially fewer PAs this season, and you can't argue with that!

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Some things which Ausmus may have brought to the team are:

(1) Getting pitchers to hold runners on base better, thus increasing Avila's CS% from 17% to 34%.

(2) Efficient use of defensive shifts - Tigers have saved more runs per shift than any team. Not sure how good of a thing that is, but it seems like a positive.

(3) Decreased use of sacrifice bunt.

I'm not sure how much he had to do with any of that but those seem like positive things that could be influenced by a manager. I'm just trying to look deeper into Ausmus's managing than the the things we usually talk about with managers.

I think (2) is mitigated by the fact that Ausmus uses the shift less than all but two other teams. So while he is saving more runs per shift used, he is not saving more runs overall. He seems a bit reluctant to commit to it the way most other teams seem to have.

And before people chortle that he's such a Luddite for an Ivy league man, just remember: his degree was in Government, a liberal arts curriculum that's not exactly known for its emphasis on performance analytics. If anything, that might help explain why he is so set in his ways.

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He came out and said he believes in the mentality of a closer and that it was a special thing. He was aware of the numbers but thinks there's something to "it". I think that comes from a long career as a catcher.

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I think (2) is mitigated by the fact that Ausmus uses the shift less than all but two other teams. So while he is saving more runs per shift used, he is not saving more runs overall. He seems a bit reluctant to commit to it the way most other teams seem to have.

True, but it's also possible that some teams are over using the shift.

As for his education, it's a good opportunity for fans to poke fun at Ivy Leaguers, but his managerial philosophy was almost surely shaped more by his baseball career than his college experience.

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Maybe if Soria was allowed to start the 8th inning..or any inning..with nobody on he would perform better ?

Maybe uising Joba for one or two batters only beginning in August would have kept him fresher and more effective. When he started to suck maybe someone would notice he is way over last years innings and "manage" his usage and simultaneously slowly increase ABQ's exposure. Might have ended up with two options instead of none.

"Manage" the personnel rather than mere button pushing. A lot changes from May to October. Adjust. Be a "manager" its not an index fund or computer driven ETF.

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