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KleShreen

2014 Trade Deadline Chatter

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At least he would get to and catch the ball.

and the thing is what ever weights get assigned for CF ranges league wide, have to be jacked up for the Tigers playing at COPA. The speed and skill to go back into those 425" CF 'corners' at COPA without getting nickel and dimed to death in front are critical for Tiger pitchers to get any advantage out of the big center field. You just have to have a top 2 or 3 CF in this ballpark and AJ is playing sub replacement D now. Hunter makes the more egregious (non)plays, but center is a much bigger problem to me.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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BABIP isn't completely out of the pitcher's control, though. A lot of it is, but it can't be completely ignored.

You are talking about 65 innings pitched at the AAA level.

We probably oughtn't be drawing conclusions about anything TBH, but to the extent that we do, I would leave H/9 out of it, because that is going to be the most impacted by random variation of the metrics you chose to look at.

Also, unless you believe his 0.320* BABIP is something he is controlling to a significant extent, I'd argue the more statistically sound approach is to assume it is random variation until he demonstrates he is among the few pitchers that have an ability to control or impact it in a significant manner (positively or negatively).

*per my calculations. If I am in error WRT to Ray's BABIP, please let me know.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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and the thing is what ever weights get assigned for CF ranges league wide, have to be jacked up for the Tigers playing at COPA. The speed and skill to go back into those 425" CF 'corners' at COPA without getting nickel and dimed to death in front are critical for Tiger pitchers to get any advantage out of the big center field. You just have to have a top 2 or 3 CF in this ballpark and AJ is playing sub replacement D now.

Preach on.

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Can everyone just agree that Ajax sucks?

Wait, I forgot that Couga said Jackson was going to start hitting a large amount of home runs any day now. So maybe Couga won't agree.

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You are talking about 65 innings pitched at the AAA level.

We probably oughtn't be drawing conclusions about anything TBH, but to the extent that we do, I would leave H/9 out of it, because that is going to be the most impacted by random variation of the metrics you chose to look at.

Also, unless you believe his 0.320* BABIP is something he is controlling to a significant extent, I'd argue the more statistically sound approach is to assume it is random variation until he demonstrates he is among the few pitchers that have an ability to control or impact it in a significant manner (positively or negatively).

*per my calculations. If I am in error WRT to Ray's BABIP, please let me know.

I didn't think it was really all that important. I listed it last out of the three metrics I mentioned, almost as an afterthought, and mostly to combine it with his WHIP, which when his walks and hits are taken together, it suggests that he lets a high (but not "poor") number of people get on base. The only reason it got discussed further is that G2 said something about it. Then it got all blown out of proportion, and I was forced to defend even mentioning it at all.

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Can everyone just agree that Ajax sucks?

Wait, I forgot that Couga said Jackson was going to start hitting a large amount of home runs any day now. So maybe Couga won't agree.

Well, his career-best contact rate has now regressed to the point where it's not his career best anymore, so that's not good on my end. Usually skills are the leading indicator, and performance will regress to the skill baseline. But it looks now like either 1) his contact rate was just a random variation that lasted a bit longer than normal, or 2) his bad luck has really just gotten to his head and made him start pressing, which has made him worse. I'm going to stick with #2 for now.

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2) his bad luck has really just gotten to his head and made him start pressing, which has made him worse. I'm going to stick with #2 for now.

I don't think he sucks.

I don't know if it's bad luck, but AJ isn't as bad as he his currently performing. I do think something has gotten in his head and is messing him up.

You know all the flack we gave Mclendon, maybe he was the guy holding Jackson together all these years.

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Jackson at this rate may be a fringe player by the end of the season....but there are also indications that he's transitioning to flyball hitting with good peripherals (BB/K) and enough bad BABIP (about 25 points of batting average) to make me hope that he'll emerge in the second half as a pretty well-rounded hitter.

His defense has been below average overall this year, but in the last two weeks his advanced defensive metrics have spiked upward a little...is that random variation?....I haven't seen the last few games so I don't know if anything significant is up there either.

I'm thinking even odds he'll be non-tendered after this year. Less than even odds that he'll emerge with enough hitting (800+ OPS, 10+ HRs) in the second half to make the Tigers tender him and make him their new RFer in 2015.

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I don't want any other outfielders. I want to cut hunter and Ajax and replace them with dirks and Carrera...

Honestly, this team doesn't need much. It just needs to cut some dead weight and maybe add a bullpen arm.

I am not so sure that they really are against a chance with ECarrera as it may be more with what to do with AJ and Hunter. By bringing him up somebody has to go - maybe designate DKelley?. The team is quite loyal and DK has been a part of it for some time. IMHO it seems the AJ and Hunter aftermath of adding Carrera (and/or even Dirks soon) has greater implications. With that said sooner or later (this season) AJ has to start showing CONSISTENT progress - he is eligible for another jump in salary next year and right now it is nowhere near justified.

Then the question is can Carrera (and Dirks for that matter) make up for it? Carrera has played in the big leagues and for somewhat of a contending team in Cleveland in the recent past. Although his perfaormance was nothing to write home about he was not awful either. Now, just turning 27, he may have figured a bit more out and improved as he has been very consistent at Toledo with the bat. He can play some D & bunt, he runs well and he does hit LH.

Once again IF they were to bring him up, along with the return of Dirks 'changes' the team - do they wish to do this? AJ seems to be a favorite among his teamates as well, maybe they deal him and a prospect for a reliever? Then add the two LH bats and the team is more rounded, with perhaps better defense and another bullpen arm - just thinking through all the repercussions... Sooner or later something will give here. Hunter, IMO, as long as the team is contending is not going anywhere (lots of intangibles and even politics - despite his fielding regression). Heck, they may even trade for another OF.

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I think Jackson's move to hit more fly balls has been a mistake.

He hit 16 home runs in 2012 with his old approach. He seems like the type that can hit for decent power when he is focusing on trying to drive the ball rather than trying to lift it. I don't think he has enough raw power to have success as a fly ball hitter.

It's been half a season now and he is still stuck on three (3) home runs. And he isn't getting any babip help by hitting the ball in the air so often.

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They've already designated Kelly for assignment before. They aren't loyal to Kelly.

Correct. I do remember that two years ago (for QBerry?). I do think they are 'loyal' but that they will do it again if/when they have to - it is just not there, yet...

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I think Jackson's move to hit more fly balls has been a mistake.

..

So there was a conscious decision there? I know he's been round and round about his leg kick and load, but hadn't heard he's deliberately going to an upper cut - that would decrease the bat's 'time in zone' which is a favorite concept recently.

Still in all, it's the defense I want to see come back to be convinced - because I tend more to believe that until it does, it is evidence that he is not 100% percent physically so details of hitting approach end up like shuffling deck chairs you know where. Hope you are right Sabre.

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I think his lack of range has been a result of him trying to bulk up. He seems to have gotten worse on the base paths, too.

His fly ball tendencies this year are so out of whack relative to his past numbers that I have to assume it was on purpose.

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I think his lack of range has been a result of him trying to bulk up. ...

haha - funny you should mention that as I have thought he has looked anaemically thin this year. Uniform choices maybe. :laugh:

In any case if he is weight training I sure hope he is getting good advice. For someone with Jackson's body type and skills it sure could be disastrous. He's not a sprinter, he's a glider. He needs to stay lithe.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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Correct. I do remember that two years ago (for QBerry?). I do think they are 'loyal' but that they will do it again if/when they have to - it is just not there, yet...

I'm not listening....

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I never wanted Benoit to leave in the first place and would love to have him back, but the problem is reacquiring him is that you are on the hook for $12M for the rest of this year and next year, he has an $8M option that could kick in for 2016 (though he has to finish 55 games, so if we don't use him as a closer next year, it's moot) AND you'll need to give up a pretty decent minor league piece to get him back. Considering that we were not willing to make him the $14M qualifying offer and didn't want to give him any serious multi-year offers in the winter, I would be surprised if we are willing to commit so much to bring him back now. But I'd love having him. He's probably the most clutch and solid reliever we have had in recent years.

A guy I would like to see us get, though he doesn't fit a particular position need, is Matt Joyce. He's streaky but his hot streaks would be a nice addition. I think he qualifies as a veteran hitter, and his OBP is .355. Not too shabby. He's basically a DH/corner OF, though, and considering we are already overcrowded there I don't see it happening. But it would be nice if it did, somehow.

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Definitely too late to trade Austin Jackson...not a fan of selling low on players. Don't have high expectations for him but could be an average player at a corner outfield position next year. We could deal Castellanos but the haul better be outstanding and we get players back under control. Not really seeing the point of shopping him.

I think this is the perfect time to trade Porcello and he would be the asset I dangle the most.

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I think this is the perfect time to trade Porcello and he would be the asset I dangle the most.

Hmmm....that's an interesting idea. I think we need him to make a run at the Central title though, but if he was shopped, what kind of return would he bring?

(I'm opening this up to the whole peanut gallery, not just Hart.)

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