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KleShreen

2014 Trade Deadline Chatter

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It's a tad high assuming you get worse as you move up a level, but it's also the combination of both hits and walks that worry me. Smyly's H/9 in Erie was 6.3. Porcello's in Toledo was 7.7, although he only spent 4 games there. But Porcello was a year younger.

Taken as WHIP from whatever source - no argument. It does seem with starting pitching you really do want to see more dominance at every level short of ML. A guy may OPS 870 at AAA and 800 in the majors which is OK, but pitchers so seem to either dominate the minors or end up pretty much useless when called up.

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It's a tad high assuming you get worse as you move up a level, but it's also the combination of both hits and walks that worry me. Smyly's H/9 in Erie was 6.3. Porcello's in Toledo was 7.7, although he only spent 4 games there. But Porcello was a year younger.

Well, the hit rate is largely a function of BABIP.

If a guy is striking out 7 men per 9, that means he has to get 20 fielding outs per 9 innings.

9 hits per 9 innings means batters are going 9 for 29 in non strikeout at bats in this hypothetical 9 inning game.

That is a BABIP of .310. A little high, but nothing crazy. It can be helped by getting DP, but I would generally expect any pitcher with a K/9 of 7 to give up 1 non HR hit an inning.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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I can't believe you bothered listing porcello's aaa numbers.

I noted that he only made 4 starts there, so it wasn't worth much.

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I noted that he only made 4 starts there, so it wasn't worth much.

Yeah, you noted it, but it is basically worth nothing (less than "not much"), and the persuasive effect of listing it outweighs whatever actual benefit listing it provided.

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Lets not forget Porcello also made those 4 starts in AAA in 2010 after he already had a year and a half in the majors and was sent down to get fixed.

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Yeah, you noted it, but it is basically worth nothing (less than "not much"), and the persuasive effect of listing it outweighs whatever actual benefit listing it provided.

I disagree that it has zero value. The margin of error is large for a 4-start sample size, but it's also not infinity.

I wanted to compare it to our other starters, but there's not much else to go on, since none of them really spent much more than a few games in the upper minors. Porcello, Verlander, and Smyly all moved pretty fast. And so did Scherzer even though he was in AZ's system.

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Well, you are arguing that that 1 hit per 9 is poor, so maybe it would make sense to compare that to pitchers outside our system to prove your point if our current starters don't have enough data.

Porcello's four starts are pointless.

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If the Mets ate 50% of Granderson's salary would you want him?

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Well, the hit rate is largely a function of BABIP.

If a guy is striking out 7 men per 9, that means he has to get 20 fielding outs per 9 innings.

9 hits per 9 innings means batters are going 9 for 29 in non strikeout at bats in this hypothetical 9 inning game.

That is a BABIP of .310. A little high, but nothing crazy. It can be helped by getting DP, but I would generally expect any pitcher with a K/9 of 7 to give up 1 non HR hit an inning.

Non-HR hit rates per inning assuming a BABIP of 0.300 and no DP:

K/9 -> H/IP

5.0 -> 1.05

6.0 -> 1.00

7.0 -> 0.95

8.0 -> 0.90

9.0 -> 0.86

10.0 -> 0.81

11.0 -> 0.76

Basically an extra strikeout per 9 innings should result in roughly one fewer non-HR hit every 20 innings.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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If the Mets ate 50% of Granderson's salary would you want him?

Not really. His defense is starting to regress and he's been playing mostly at RF. Only thing that will be separating him from Hunter is that Granderson will take a walk.

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If the Mets ate 50% of Granderson's salary would you want him?

I don't want any other outfielders. I want to cut hunter and Ajax and replace them with dirks and Carrera.

Trading a good trade chip to get granderson doesn't make a lot of sense to me when we already have too many outfielders.

Honestly, this team doesn't need much. It just needs to cut some dead weight and maybe add a bullpen arm.

And it needs the starting pitchers to pitch to their abilities.

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Non-HR hit rates per inning assuming a BABIP of 0.300 and no DP:

K/9 -> H/IP

5.0 -> 1.05

6.0 -> 1.00

7.0 -> 0.95

8.0 -> 0.90

9.0 -> 0.86

10.0 -> 0.81

11.0 -> 0.76

Basically an extra strikeout per 9 innings should result in roughly one fewer non-HR hit every 20 innings.

Yeah, getting hung up on hits/9 is kind of useless unless a guy is truly terrible and getting knocked around the park.

Strikeouts and walks will carry the day.

In ray's case, he needs to improve both in aaa before we can rely on him starting in detroit.

But opening day 2015 isn't out of the question.

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Well, you are arguing that that 1 hit per 9 is poor, so maybe it would make sense to compare that to pitchers outside our system to prove your point if our current starters don't have enough data.

Porcello's four starts are pointless.

I didn't say "poor." It's not what I would call "poor." I said it was "high." Well, it can be "high" for a guy you're expecting to play a serviceable role on a playoff contender while still being far from "poor." "Poor" implies that he won't even make the majors, and I already stated that I think he pretty much as a floor as a 5th starter/swingman at this point.

It's hard to find lefties with a similar profile to Ray in major league rotations these days that don't have overly-dominant strikeout numbers, but are serviceable nonetheless. Matt Harrison was the closest I found (after looking way more than I wanted to because Shelton was unsatisfied), and he had a career H/9 of exactly 9.0 in his minor league career...and he struck out less than Ray, so that's potentially a good sign for Ray. Other than being injured the last two years, Harrison was very good in his age 25-26 seasons...well worth the value of giving up Fister.

But he's also only slightly better than someone like Ross Detwiler (10.2 H/9, similar walk and strikeout rates)--albeit he's slightly better at a younger age, so he has more promise going forward.

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Ray's hit rate isn't high. It is closely in line with what one should expect given his strike-out rate.

Unless he is giving up too many HR the problem isn't giving up too many hits, the problem is he is not getting enough Ks.

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I don't want any other outfielders. I want to cut hunter and Ajax and replace them with dirks and Carrera.

Hunter and Jackson have been a drag on performance, but you are really asking to roll the dice if you are going to cut either of those two and bank on Carrera.

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What is a "high" hit rate if not "poor"? It's not average, or it wouldn't be high. If it is high, it is inherently below average. Below average to me is poor.

Sorry for putting words in your mouth, Couga.

Anyway, I think the point is, hits/9 is a stupid stat to consider when looking at minor league pitchers.

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Ray's hit rate isn't high. It is closely in line with what one should expect given his strike-out rate.

Unless he is giving up too many HR the problem isn't giving up too many hits, the problem is he is not getting enough Ks.

BABIP isn't completely out of the pitcher's control, though. A lot of it is, but it can't be completely ignored.

You are right though in that his K/9 is a lot more of a concern. At 7.0 in AAA, it will probably drop to a level at MLB that would make him unattractive to a playoff contender. Of course, he will probably improve in the next year or two.

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Hunter and Jackson have been a drag on performance, but you are really asking to roll the dice if you are going to cut either of those two and bank on Carrera.

At least he would get to and catch the ball.

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What is a "high" hit rate if not "poor"? It's not average, or it wouldn't be high. If it is high, it is inherently below average. Below average to me is poor.

Sorry for putting words in your mouth, Couga.

Anyway, I think the point is, hits/9 is a stupid stat to consider when looking at minor league pitchers.

High is anything below average. Poor to me means that it's a huge problem. Like Crosby's or Oliver's walk rates. Those were poor. I don't think Ray is poor at any aspect of the game so far, which is why he already has a higher floor (and lower bust rate, IMO) than either of these "prospects" that we once had. But he doesn't stand out in any one area, either. He's unlike most other recent Tigers prospects--who seem to be guys with dominant fastballs/K-rates, but have big holes in their game otherwise that we hope to "solve" by the time they get to the majors. We're like that girl that's always trying to tame the bad boys with love...well now we finally got a reliable guy that's not completely sexy in any way, but he covers all the bases and is more steady-as-she-goes. Which is fine by me.

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What kind of defense do they have at Toledo? That would also need to be considered.

I calculate Robbie's BABIP at Toledo to be .320. I believe he has allowed 63 non HR hits and I believe he has 134 instances where a ball was put into play resulting in at least 1 out.

If his BABIP were say .290, he would have allowed 55 non HR hits (instead of 63) per 134 instances of a ball in play resulting in at least an out. Assuming he still allowed his 3 HR in this hypothetical and keeping his IP the same, his H/9 would drop to 8 from 9, and his WHIP would also drop roughly .12.

I've changed my position somewhat and I think his hit rate has been at least partially a function of a relatively poor BABIP.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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The more I read about the hitters who might be traded...it appears there will be many suitors.

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