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2016 Presidential Election - Who will the nominees be? Make your prediction here.

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I don't buy the thinking that a brokered convention is bad for the GOP. You can't really compare today with past history as politics and the process has changed so much over time so we don't really know how much of an effect these things will have. Cruz and Trump are each poliarizing within the GOP for their own reasons so whether they sail to the nomination or get it on the 2nd or 3rd ballot, or any other candidate for that matter, just means a different group of people will be pissed off. Conventions have become nothing but infomercials anyway and I think the only people who watch are junkies who's minds are made up already, and the media. A convention that actually means something could be some good advertising if they were to give the nomination to someone who didn't run at all.

The point is whatever problems the GOP, or dems for that matter, will have in the election exist regardless of what happens at the convention.

I'd also say that I really do hope we get a 3 way race where no one gets to 270 and it goes to the House. The civics lesson alone will be classic. I would love it.

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Not buying that. Trump has exploited the worst characteristics of the US political system and dragged my party with him. Plenty of bricklayers on the road to hell for sure (e.g., Hannity, Morning Joe, much of talk radio). But I have an absolutely clear conscience if he is defeated.

I agree he has exploited the worst of the political system, but instead of shrugging off his supporters as a bunch of racists, I think it's wiser to look at the deeper reasons for his popularity. I think it's a combination of people sick of mealy mouthed politicians and our sick Kardashian culture. People have been conditioned to gravitate toward those making the most noise.

I also think anyone who disparages all Trump supporters as closet Klansmen are being demagogues themselves. And this is coming from someone who can't stand Donald Trump, either personally or politically.

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I don't buy the thinking that a brokered convention is bad for the GOP. You can't really compare today with past history as politics and the process has changed so much over time so we don't really know how much of an effect these things will have. Cruz and Trump are each poliarizing within the GOP for their own reasons so whether they sail to the nomination or get it on the 2nd or 3rd ballot, or any other candidate for that matter, just means a different group of people will be pissed off. Conventions have become nothing but infomercials anyway and I think the only people who watch are junkies who's minds are made up already, and the media. A convention that actually means something could be some good advertising if they were to give the nomination to someone who didn't run at all.

The point is whatever problems the GOP, or dems for that matter, will have in the election exist regardless of what happens at the convention

I'd also say that I really do hope we get a 3 way race where no one gets to 270 and it goes to the House. The civics lesson alone will be classic. I would love it.

Under normal circumstances, I would think that if the primaries cannot resolve the nomination, whatever process then takes place that replaces the voters' will with some other decision just seems to me to make it inevitable that some part of the party will sit on its hands in the general, and neither party is strong enough to win if fractured. In Trump's case, if you believe the party is just as likely to fracture if he wins with large segments refusing to support him, it probably doesn't matter much.

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Who should I vote for in Michigan if I want to keep trump down? Is there any delegate trickery that needs to happen?

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Who should I vote for in Michigan if I want to keep trump down? Is there any delegate trickery that needs to happen?

I believe in Michigan that if a candidate gets more than 50% they get all of the delegates. I just saw a poll that should Kasich leading. I guess throw your vote to him. I'm just going to vote for the candidate I like best which is Bernie Sanders.

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I just realized I can't find my voter registration card. My ID would be fine?

You don't need anything. You can sign an affidavit that you are registered if you forget your ID.

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I don't buy the thinking that a brokered convention is bad for the GOP. You can't really compare today with past history as politics and the process has changed so much over time so we don't really know how much of an effect these things will have. Cruz and Trump are each poliarizing within the GOP for their own reasons so whether they sail to the nomination or get it on the 2nd or 3rd ballot, or any other candidate for that matter, just means a different group of people will be pissed off. Conventions have become nothing but infomercials anyway and I think the only people who watch are junkies who's minds are made up already, and the media. A convention that actually means something could be some good advertising if they were to give the nomination to someone who didn't run at all.

The point is whatever problems the GOP, or dems for that matter, will have in the election exist regardless of what happens at the convention.

I'd also say that I really do hope we get a 3 way race where no one gets to 270 and it goes to the House. The civics lesson alone will be classic. I would love it.

The failure of the public school system to actually teach about our constitutional republic is going to result in an uproar if this goes to the convention floor and it doesn't result in one of the candidates who have been running for office. The majority of people believe that we live in a direct democracy. We don't, and it's going to cause problems if that is the result of a brokered convention.

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Who should I vote for in Michigan if I want to keep trump down? Is there any delegate trickery that needs to happen?

Jeb Bush

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Looks like Rubio is the guy. A candidate needs 15% to get a share of the delegates. Rubio is in danger of falling just short of that.

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IMO, I don't really believe that. In a state that is this blue collar I can't see him losing by that margin. Especially when you consider how well he's been polling in a similar state like Ohio.

18 pt gap between Fox and CBS on Mi primary (CBS has Bernie within 11). Either a lot of movement or a lot of noise. On thing with surveying Hils vs Bernie is that with such a huge generational divide, trying to normalize your survey for the difference in communication styles between the two groups has to be a trick.

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18 pt gap between Fox and CBS on Mi primary (CBS has Bernie within 11). Either a lot of movement or a lot of noise. On thing with surveying Hils vs Bernie is that with such a huge generational divide, trying to normalize your survey for the difference in communication styles between the two groups has to be a trick.

Some odd polls for Michigan. Most are Trump by double digits. But then the one from yesterday has Kasich up, which doesn't seem likely at all.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election 2016 Presidential Polls

There was a Florida poll released yesterday that had Rubio within 5 points of Trump. But Rubio's PAC is the one that did the poll, so who knows.

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I am enjoying the fact that Rubio won Puerto Rico's 23 delegates with a wipe out (same number that New Hampshire awards) and the Trump ignoranti-bots on social media are saying all manner of tosh about it.

Rubio has to win Florida for the brokered convention to work. It appears that he just shored up Miami's latin vote today. It would be ok if anyone not named Trump won Michigan. Got to keep him from 1237. My preference is Rubio or Kasich then Cruz in Michigan. Apparently my Dad --a staunch moderate Tory -- voted Kasich in Oceana County.

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Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen 2h2 hours ago

Dels:

KS: C-24 T-9 R-6 K-1

KY: C-15 T-17 R-7 K-7

LA: C-18 T-18 R-5 *5

ME: C-12 T-9 K-2

PR: R-23

Weekend: Cruz 69 Trump 53 Rubio 41 Kasich 10

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18 pt gap between Fox and CBS on Mi primary (CBS has Bernie within 11). Either a lot of movement or a lot of noise. On thing with surveying Hils vs Bernie is that with such a huge generational divide, trying to normalize your survey for the difference in communication styles between the two groups has to be a trick.

I saw that CBS poll and think that's a much more accurate reflection of the state if things here in Michigan. We've had a huge ground game in the state for a solid two months now and have been running TV/Radio ads for weeks now. Plus, Bernie has been campaigning around the state, visiting four separate times now. This kind of effort wouldn't be put in the state if we were truly as far behind as the Fox poll suggests.

Edited by Mr.TaterSalad

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Some odd polls for Michigan. Most are Trump by double digits. But then the one from yesterday has Kasich up, which doesn't seem likely at all.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election 2016 Presidential Polls

There was a Florida poll released yesterday that had Rubio within 5 points of Trump. But Rubio's PAC is the one that did the poll, so who knows.

RCP average before the MA primary was Hils up by 6.7 and the final margin was only 1.4 which is pretty much outside the acceptable margin of survey error ---So the pollsters are definitely missing something - probably still don't know the right adjustment for the fact that virtually no-one in the the young cell only set will even take a survey call let along take the time to comply if they do answer it.

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This is a pretty interesting take on Ted's surge.

Ted Cruz's wins in Maine and Kansas are great news for Donald Trump.

"Ted Cruz’s twin victories on Saturday night in Maine and Kansas—coupled with his strong second-place finishes in Louisiana and Kentucky—likely mean he will emerge as the long-discussed, as-yet-unglimpsed “non-Trump” Republican contender. He has now won six states (as opposed to Marco Rubio’s one), and he appears to have benefited both from other candidates dropping out of the race and from some fine debate performances. But Cruz’s excellent night is also good news for Donald Trump. Cruz will not only have more trouble solidifying an anti-Trump coalition than Rubio—or at least a better version of Rubio—would have. Cruz’s success may also mean that the GOP establishment, which despises the Texas senator, will not go all out to stop Trump."

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I like Bernie interjecting universal health care into the debate. Hilary really countered him well with the auto bailout. That's going to play well for her in Michigan.

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I like Bernie interjecting universal health care into the debate. Hilary really countered him well with the auto bailout. That's going to play well for her in Michigan.

Sanders hit her hard on NAFTA, I think that's going to play equally as well if not better.

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Sanders hit her hard on NAFTA, I think that's going to play equally as well if not better.

Hilary is playing in the lead so I think she countered Sanders blow well. The auto bailout was recent. NAFTA was 20 years ago.

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