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Cabrera extended to 2022?

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Is he gonna get to 500 HR?

Maybe he gets happy again next year and the options vest?  

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4 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Is he gonna get to 500 HR?

Maybe he gets happy again next year and the options vest?  

He's at 470 right now.  If the Tigers hold him through 2023 (which is the only guaranteed part of his contract), I think he does.  I will say that with the assumption that the biceps injury is still at play a bit this season.  I would think there will be a bit of a bounce back next season.  But, again, this is just a guess about his recovery from the biceps.  I can see 500 as a 50/50 deal, because even if he does have some residual effect that he is working through this season, there is no safe assumption that he stays healthy enough from here on out.

As far being happy and his options vesting, those options are based on MVP voting in 2023 (for 2024 to vest) and 2024 (for 2025 to vest.  I can't imagine that these will vest, unless all MVP votes go through the Tampa writers.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/

image.png.67a28c83bd817ca763a565cc5278923c.png

As far as cutting him if/when the time comes, are the Tigers on the hook for the vesting options?  I am not clear on that one.

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55 minutes ago, Casimir said:

He's at 470 right now.  If the Tigers hold him through 2023 (which is the only guaranteed part of his contract), I think he does.  I will say that with the assumption that the biceps injury is still at play a bit this season.  I would think there will be a bit of a bounce back next season.  But, again, this is just a guess about his recovery from the biceps.  I can see 500 as a 50/50 deal, because even if he does have some residual effect that he is working through this season, there is no safe assumption that he stays healthy enough from here on out.

As far being happy and his options vesting, those options are based on MVP voting in 2023 (for 2024 to vest) and 2024 (for 2025 to vest.  I can't imagine that these will vest, unless all MVP votes go through the Tampa writers.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/

image.png.67a28c83bd817ca763a565cc5278923c.png

As far as cutting him if/when the time comes, are the Tigers on the hook for the vesting options?  I am not clear on that one.

I'm pretty sure the vesting options depend on performance milestones that there is about zero probability he can reach. 

In the middle of June, I wasn't sure if he could reach 500 HR but he was on pace for almost 170 hits so 3000 hits  sometime next season looked like a cinch. But he has fallen off the cliff in July.  182 BA 497 OPS in his last 60 PA.  At that rate he's not going to get 500HR or 3000 Hits. 

Of course, being the devious person I am, I can imagine Cabrera reaching a decision to try and get cut just so he can get out of Det and catch on with a different team......

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11 hours ago, Casimir said:

He's at 470 right now.  If the Tigers hold him through 2023 (which is the only guaranteed part of his contract), I think he does.  I will say that with the assumption that the biceps injury is still at play a bit this season.  I would think there will be a bit of a bounce back next season.  But, again, this is just a guess about his recovery from the biceps.  I can see 500 as a 50/50 deal, because even if he does have some residual effect that he is working through this season, there is no safe assumption that he stays healthy enough from here on out.

As far being happy and his options vesting, those options are based on MVP voting in 2023 (for 2024 to vest) and 2024 (for 2025 to vest.  I can't imagine that these will vest, unless all MVP votes go through the Tampa writers.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/detroit-tigers/

image.png.67a28c83bd817ca763a565cc5278923c.png

As far as cutting him if/when the time comes, are the Tigers on the hook for the vesting options?  I am not clear on that one.

Yes, they are liable for all of the terms of the contract.  But Cabrera is no more likely than Jordan Zimmermann is to finish in the top ten of the MVP voting in 2023 or 2024, so at this point those options are effectively meaningless.

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10 hours ago, six-hopper said:

Yes, they are liable for all of the terms of the contract.  But Cabrera is no more likely than Jordan Zimmermann is to finish in the top ten of the MVP voting in 2023 or 2024, so at this point those options are effectively meaningless.

So they are liable for 2024 & 2025 if they cut him between now and 2023?

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So assuming his options don't vest we're on the hook for 124 million plus whatever he's owed the rest of this year?    That's basically like paying the Zimmermann contract over again. 

 

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4 hours ago, Casimir said:

So they are liable for 2024 & 2025 if they cut him between now and 2023?

Only if he finishes in the top ten of the MVP voting in 2023 and/or 2024.  Which is theoretically possible for him to do while playing for another team that signs him for the minimum after the Tigers cut him loose.  But it's also theoretically possible for me to vote for a Democrat.  And the respective probabilities of those things happening are about the same.

P.S.  According to the summary of Cabrera's contract above, the Tigers have a team option to extend him for the 2024 season at 30 million a year if his vesting option based on the MVP voting doesn't kick in, and there is an 8 million buyout if the Tigers don't exercise that option, which obviously they won't.  So that means they are fully stuck paying him his salary through 2023, plus another 8 mil for the privilege of ****canning him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Six is rarely wrong when it comes to the details.  

Right now we have a HOF replacement player as a DH.  It's a role that none of the kids will be fitted into unless Skip gets clever and introduces a revolving door DH to give the kids ABs while the team eats millions.  I don't see it happening until we sniff a playoff spot, and that's not happening for a while.

While we see today what the next 60 games will hold, I can't see how either Miggy or the team won't invest in whatever mitigation is possible to produce a better performance in 2020 and beyond.  That includes lap band and knee surgery.

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A very good probability that Chris Ilitch and Al Avila do not seriously expect to compete for playoffs until after 2023 ..because nobody in their right mind (at this time) could competently expect any team would be playoff competitive with  a 'baseball-old' over-the-hill .600 OPS DH in the lineup for 120+ games a season.

With that said ..is it possible that Chris Ilitch and Al Avila will attempt to continue directing the organization in 'deep-tank' mode throughout 2020 and 2021 too ..and only begin to get serious about building a potential winning MLB roster during perhaps 2022?

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1 minute ago, Tigrrfan said:

A very good probability that Chris Ilitch and Al Avila do not seriously expect to compete for playoffs until after 2023 ..because nobody in their right mind (at this time) could competently expect any team would be playoff competitive with  a 'baseball-old' over-the-hill .600 OPS DH in the lineup for 120+ games a season.

With that said ..is it possible that Chris Ilitch and Al Avila will attempt to continue directing the organization in 'deep-tank' mode throughout 2020 and 2021 too ..and only begin to get serious about building a potential winning MLB roster during perhaps 2022?

The rebuild may not be successful.

BUT I think the idea that they're going to purposefully tank for the duration of (or because of) Miggy's contract is absurd.

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Just now, LooseGoose said:

The rebuild may not be successful.

BUT I think the idea that they're going to purposefully tank for the duration of (or because of) Miggy's contract is absurd.

Never said for the duration of Miggy's contract.  Said through 2020 and 2021.  Miggy contract runs through 2023.

 

With that said (clarified) ..most likely not going to reach the playoffs with Miggy as full time DH ..which suggest serious playoff contention will begin after Miggy's contract ends in 2023.  Therefore, ..with the Tigers current farm system being questionable in regards to impact position players ..what will it benefit the Tigers if they are not among the bottom 5 teams during 2020 and 2021?

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15 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

Never said for the duration of Miggy's contract.  Said through 2020 and 2021.  Miggy contract runs through 2023.

 

With that said (clarified) ..most likely not going to reach the playoffs with Miggy as full time DH ..which suggest serious playoff contention will begin after Miggy's contract ends in 2023.  Therefore, ..with the Tigers current farm system being questionable in regards to impact position players ..what will it benefit the Tigers if they are not among the bottom 5 teams during 2020 and 2021?

Sorry, I misinterpreted what you were saying.

I'm convinced that if Miggy doesn't rebound by at latest mid next season a way will be found to move on.  That may be a pipe dream but we'll see.

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I am hoping Miggy has a resurgence next year and beyond .. 25+ HR's per year with .800+ OPS.  Unfortunately ..also thinking that is not at all likely to happen.  Also doubt they move on from Miggy.  They did not move on from VMart and have not moved on from Zimmerman.

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17 minutes ago, Tigrrfan said:

I am hoping Miggy has a resurgence next year and beyond .. 25+ HR's per year with .800+ OPS.  Unfortunately ..also thinking that is not at all likely to happen.  Also doubt they move on from Miggy.  They did not move on from VMart and have not moved on from Zimmerman.

True enough, but they had 3 anchors and hope for 2.  Now it's 2 anchors and hope for 1.  Soon it'll be 1 anchor.  Easier to cut loose.

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Plus they're still paying part of Verlander's contract and I believe still some of Fielder's too.    After they're done paying those and Zimm is off the books they may be more willing to eat Cabrera's contract.  

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15 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Plus they're still paying part of Verlander's contract and I believe still some of Fielder's too.    After they're done paying those and Zimm is off the books they may be more willing to eat Cabrera's contract.  

In 2018 they had VMart, Anibal, Miggy, JV, JZ, and Prince.

In 2019 it's Miggy, JV, JZ, and Prince.

In 2020 they still have Miggy, Zimm and Prince. 

In 2021 it's just Miggy for sunk costs.

So they've slowly been working through the salary hangover of the Dombrowski/MrI era.

 

 

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2 hours ago, LooseGoose said:

Sorry, I misinterpreted what you were saying.

I'm convinced that if Miggy doesn't rebound by at latest mid next season a way will be found to move on.  That may be a pipe dream but we'll see.

agree, If they reach any point at which Cabrera is preventing them from winning games that matter he will either sit, or be released or go to long term DL. You can book that.

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This year is bad...REALLY bad, but I am an optimist and hold out hope.  A surgery here, a surgery there, rehab here, rehab there....he will go out with a bang in 2025 hitting 170 HR to become the all time leader!

Honestly I still hold out hope.  If he is like this next year then I will be sad and mourn the end of a legacy...one that I was hoping would go out with a bang, but ended up limping to the finish.

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