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Tigers Sign J.D. Martinez

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Now that I look at it, Shelton always hit a ton...basically at every level of the minors. Even better than JD. His breakout shouldn't have been that surprising. He also always had very good walk rates. I'm surprised he wasn't protected in the Rule V draft.

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Now that I look at it, Shelton always hit a ton...basically at every level of the minors. Even better than JD. His breakout shouldn't have been that surprising. He also always had very good walk rates. I'm surprised he wasn't protected in the Rule V draft.

I remember baseball prospectus doing a piece on the Tigers in 2006 when they started off hot and basically claimed the same.

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You do wonder why Chris Shelton went off a cliff. I mean, he didn't go from tearing up the baseball to just being mediocre.....he went off a friggin' cliff.

Doesn't make sense.

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I recall Chris Shelton went unprotected by Pittsburgh for a couple reasons. The first one cited was that he couldn't really play a position and for an NL team that limited his value. That's a stupid reason because he could have still been traded. The other reason was that at the time there was really no way he could conceivably stick on a major league team for an entire season. It took a terrible team that honestly didn't care about winning to keep him up all season. He was so far from major league ready that after 2004 the tigers started him out in aaa in 2005.

It was a good gamble for the tigers to take.

Regardless, I think the pirates erred, because it was no secret that he was the best rule 5 player available.

I think he ended up failing because he just wasn't good enough and couldn't adjust once pitchers figured him out.

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I agree with Shelton, here. JD had quite a bit of time to demonstrate what kind of hitter he was. If he has changed for the better it is truly an exception to the rule that no organization could reasonably predict. Any lingering doubts that people have about his performance thus far are also well-founded. It is more likely he will regress than maintain his present level of production. It would be really cool if he did not, however. I think DD saw this as a low-risk gamble. I doubt he saw much more than any other GM out there. Sometimes, gambles like this actually pay off. Not often, though. The reason stories like this are so intriguing is due to their rarity.

The Avila's had observed JD since little league and followed him throughout his progress. What is most difficult to understand from the Astros point was that the Tigers proposed a trade for JD just before he was cut loose. This again reflects the importance of Avila as GM Asst that does not allow him to go elsewhere and the Tigers get the advantage of his talent to evaluate players.

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...

I think he ended up failing because he just wasn't good enough and couldn't adjust once pitchers figured him out.

This is more or less a conventional wisdom reading, but Chris was way out on the limit of how many PAs it should take before other teams would have developed effective scouting on him. So his case still retains a little mystery. Just as example, Tui and Boesh came to earth much faster than Shelton.

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There is one reasonable hope for why JD may be better than he showed in Houston, and that would be the possibility that he was never healthy there. He came out of the gate hot 2012, but had a worsening hand condition that eventually lead to surgery and his hitting tracked downward until he went to the DL. In 2013, he sprained ligaments in his knee in April and then sprained his wrist in July 2013. He missed at least 6 weeks of the season on the DL in 2013.

So maybe J. D. has just not had a good healthy run to show his stuff yet. I'd say that is the best chance that he isn't going to regress to sub-starter value.

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Dirks begins his rehab assignment today with Lakeland. Hopefully, he's back by end of the month.

Jason Beck ‏@beckjason 15m

Sounds like Dirks is going to use the full 20 days allowed on rehab. "This is going to be his spring training," trainer Kevin Rand said.

Andy Dirks begins rehab assignment in Lakeland « Beck's Blog

also confirmed by Chris Lott. Not shown on the current LFT roster yet.

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A couple of solid, Pro-JD tweets from Dave Cameron:

David Cameron @DCameronFG · 2h

So J.D. Martinez had a ridiculous June, hitting .345/.367/.702. July? .391./417/.870 before going 3-5 with a triple tonight.

If you set 150 as bar for minimum Pas, J.D. Martinez just passed Mike Trout for best wRC+ in baseball.

Major League Leaderboards » 2014 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

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Yeah, but his WAR is only 1.8 (which would be about 3.0 due to the late call-up and missed time)...send him back down.

He's hangin' with Steve Pearce.

Edited by cruzer1

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Dirks begins his rehab assignment today with Lakeland. Hopefully, he's back by end of the month.

Jason Beck ‏@beckjason 15m

Sounds like Dirks is going to use the full 20 days allowed on rehab. "This is going to be his spring training," trainer Kevin Rand said.

Andy Dirks begins rehab assignment in Lakeland « Beck's Blog

Seems reasonable. Give him as much time as possible to get back into the groove of playing real live baseball. It also gives the Tigers a bit more time to figure out the resulting roster juggling necessary with Dirks' return, if they have not yet figured it out 100%.

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Without the dirks injury opening up the roster spot (held shortly by Collins and quickly taken by JD), I wonder how much differently the season may have gone.

I think it is fair to say that JD would not have gotten as much playing time as he has.

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A couple of solid, Pro-JD tweets from Dave Cameron:

David Cameron @DCameronFG · 2h

So J.D. Martinez had a ridiculous June, hitting .345/.367/.702. July? .391./417/.870 before going 3-5 with a triple tonight.

If you set 150 as bar for minimum Pas, J.D. Martinez just passed Mike Trout for best wRC+ in baseball.

Major League Leaderboards » 2014 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Couga should tweet Cameron about the predicative nature of walk and K rates.

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Without the dirks injury opening up the roster spot (held shortly by Collins and quickly taken by JD), I wonder how much differently the season may have gone.

I think it is fair to say that JD would not have gotten as much playing time as he has.

Which Dirks are we assuming we would have gotten without the injury? The 2012 version?

I think JD Martinez would have still gotten his shot, but hit may have come a little later than it happened. If anything, Dirks injury probably bought Hunter some time to continue as an everyday player.

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I think Hunter was going to get a lot of rope regardless based on his reputation / salary.

Unfortunately not FALSE.

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Which Dirks are we assuming we would have gotten without the injury? The 2012 version?

I think JD Martinez would have still gotten his shot, but hit may have come a little later than it happened. If anything, Dirks injury probably bought Hunter some time to continue as an everyday player.

Seeing as the 2013 version of dirks was hampered by injury, I was assuming something reasonably conservative, like an 800 ops with above average defense. Down from his 850 of 2012.

Given dirks is a lefty and assuming he was producing at an 800 clip, I don't see when JD would have gotten his shot. He would need to supplant Jackson or hunter in the lineup to get any time.

With ausmus, I don't see how he could have managed doing that earlier in the season.

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Hunter definitely went through a rough stretch, but in the past week he is hitting .542 with a .560 OBP, 2 HR, 9 RBI and our only steal in that time. It will be interesting to see if the rest of his July continues to be strong (though obviously not that strong) or if this is just a weeklong stretch of super productivity.

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Hunter definitely went through a rough stretch, but in the past week he is hitting .542 with a .560 OBP, 2 HR, 9 RBI and our only steal in that time. It will be interesting to see if the rest of his July continues to be strong (though obviously not that strong) or if this is just a weeklong stretch of super productivity.

Hunter would make a great #7 hitter batting ahead of Jackson at #8.

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