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lordstanley

Playoff Watch Thread: Extend The 22-Year Streak

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Is there a magic number for the Wings yet?

As long as closest threat for the 2nd wildcard is Washington, a combination of 12 points gained by Detroit or dropped by Washington. That magic number will also go down by 1 once it becomes impossible for Washington to overtake the Wings in the tiebreaker. So 99% chance a combination of 11 points would clinch.

For reference in case Toronto overtakes the Caps, the magic number with Toronto is a combination of 9 points gained by Detroit or dropped by Toronto

Edited by lordstanley

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Key Games Tuesday April 1

Off night for the Wings but a lot of action elsewhere tonight

New Jersey at Buffalo - 5 points back of the Wings and holding the tiebreaker advantage and with same number of games played and a favorable schedule, the Devils probably pose more of a threat than the Leafs. A win here and they could be in reach of the Wings if the Wings lose to Boston tomorrow

Calgary and Toronto - Leafs 4 back of the Wings; Wings have a game in hand. Even a reeling team on an 8-home losing streak should be able to win a home game against the NHL's 5th worst team. Calgary is 6-4 in their last 10 though

Dallas at Washington - Probably the biggest game of the night as far as impact on the Wings' playoff chances. Dallas is in a dogfight of their own in the West so should be fighting hard tonight. Go Stars

Colorado at Columbus - This is Columbus' game in hand over the Wings. Just 2 points back of Detroit and holding the tiebreaker advantage, the Jackets still control their destiny in their race with Detroit

Philadelphia at St. Louis - This is Philly's game in hand over the Wings. Just 2 points ahead of the Wings, a loss would come in handy as insurance in case Columbus or Washington goes on a streak.

NYR at Vancouver - Just 4 points up on the Wings, the Rangers will have 2 games in hand on the Wings after tonight. So a regulation loss would put them on the Wings' radar. Again, more as insurance in case Columbus and Washington win out and the Wings find themselves needing an Eastern team to beat out.

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Rooting for Stars, Avalanche, Blues, and Canucks... I'm going to take a bath in hand sanitizer.

Thanks for the updates LS.

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Colorado has beaten Columbus in Overtime, but Columbus had a 2-0 lead with 7 minutes left in the 3rd.

Dallas crushed Washington 5-0.

Toronto beat Calgary in Regulation 3-2.

Decent night for the Wings.........

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Decent night for the Wings.........

Yep, the biggest game affecting the Wings' playoff chances was Washington's game and they lost in regulation.

The second biggest game affecting the Wings' playoff chances was New Jersey's game and they dropped a point in regulation.

The third biggest game affecting the Wings' playoff chances was Toronto's game and unfortunately they won in regulation. I guess they were due, ha

The fourth biggest game affecting the Wings' playoff chances, but arguably most important when it comes to securing the 1st wildcard, was Columbus' game and the Jackets somehow blew a 2-goal 3rd peiriod lead and dropped a point.

The Flyers losing in OT to St. Louis was an OK result on the periphery.

The Wings have 84 points and have 7 more games so could max out at 98 points.

The Jackets have 83 points and have 7 more games so could max out at 97 points

The Capitals have 81 points and have 6 more games so could max out at 93 points

The Devils have 80 points and have 6 more games so could max out at 92 points

The Leafs have 82 points and have 5 more games so could max out at 92 points

The Senators have 78 points and 7 more games so could max out at 92 points

So by my math ... with 2 teams (e.g, Columbus and another team) needing to pass Detroit in order for the Wings to miss:

98 points (Wings gain 14 out of 14 available points) - Wings clinch playoff spot

97 points (Wings get 13 out of 14 points) - Wings clinch playoff spot

96 points (Wings get 12 out of 14 points) - Wings clinch playoff spot

95 points (Wings get 11 out of 14 points) - Wings clinch playoff spot

94 points (Wings get 10 out of 14 points) - Wings clinch playoff spot

93 points (Wings get 9 out of 14 points) - Wings clinch playoff spot UNLESS Washington goes 6-0 rest of the way with 5 more RegulationOvertimeWins (ROWs) than the Wings from now on

92 points (Wings get 8 out of 14 points) - Wings clinch playoff spot UNLESS Washington gets 11 out of 12 points the rest of the way while picking up 5 more ROWs than the Wings the rest of the way OR one of Toronto/NJ/Ottawa win out

91 points (Wings get 7 out of 14 points) - Wings clinch playoff spot as long as each of Washington, Toronto, NJ and Ottawa drop at least 2 points the rest of the way

Normally 7 out of 14 points should be straightforward, but any of Boston, Pittsburgh, Montreal and St. Louis could easily give the Wings regulation losses (as could Buffalo in either of its 2 games or Carolina, although that would be pathetic)

Edited by lordstanley

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I hope they make it. Game today is big...as they all will be from here on out. Buckle up gang! Oooo oooo here we go!

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Good, guys, I think this is a fun thread. And more fun when the Wings are winning. Things are a lot more positive than at the time of my rather gloomy original post opening this thread, but it also goes to show how quickly thinigs can change so we're not out of the woods yet.

Key Games Wednesday April 2

Boston at Detroit - This is a game that I'm sure most of the other contenders have down as being a good chance of a loss for the Wings. So a point here would be nice. Wings lead the season series 2-1 but Boston has been torrid of late.

NYI at Ottawa - The Senators aren't really in the conversation, at 6 points back of the Wings, but since technically they could still finish at 92 points let's cheer for them to lose.

Not trying to jinx things or get ahead of onesself, but here's a scenario whereby the Wings could clinch as early as this Saturday night:

- Wings win next 3 games to get up to 90 points,with those wins coming in regulation or OT: tonight home with Boston, Friday home with Buffalo, Saturday at Montreal

- Sens drop a total of at least 2 points in their 3 games between now and the end of Saturday: tonight home with NYI, Friday home to Montreal, Saturday at NYR

- Leafs drop a total of at least 2 points in their 2 games between now and the end of Saturday: Thursday home with Boston, Saturday home with Winnipeg

- Caps drop a total of at least 3 points in their 2 games between now and the end of Saturday: Friday at New Jersey, Saturday at NYI

- Devils drop a total of at least 2 points in their 2 games between now and the end of Saturday: Friday home with Washington, Saturday at Carolina

Caps playing NJ complicates things. So 3 straight wins would leave the Wings on the verge of the playoffs but probably just short of clinching by Saturday night.

Edited by lordstanley

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Ottawa loses in regulation. They were already dead, now they're crispy. 78 points (6 back of the Wings) with 6 go to - they can top out at 90 points and have a low number of ROWs.

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Key Games Thursday April 3

Toronto at Boston - Could the Bruins lose 2 in a row? I hope not. The Leafs chances of catching the Wings are remote, but the Leafs could still catch Columbus. I don't want that to happen. No playoffs for the Leafs, please.

If the Leafs lose tonight in regulation, then back to back wins by the Wings on Friday and Saturday (provided at least 1 of those wins was achieved before the shootout) would guarantee the Wings of finishing ahead of the Leafs.

Columbus at Philadelphia - the Jackets, at 3 points back of Detroit and with tonight's game being their game in hand, are still very much a threat to the Wings for the 1st wildcard spot. The 1st wildcard spot is important, IMO. Let's face it, while the Wings won last night, that was a home game that meant a ton to the Wings and little to the Bruins and the Wings were outplayed for most of the game - very slim chance of the Wings beating the Bruins in a 1st round series. The Penguins on the other hand are vulnerable. The Wings have a better coach in Babcock over Blysma, Howard is capable of being better than Fleury, and if someone could neutralize Crosby and Malkin (obviously a huge if, especially without Zetterberg being their blanket), then there is little to choose between the two teams.

The sports stats site calculates a 93.7% chance of the Wings making the playoffs - that must be a season high.

National Hockey League Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

Edited by lordstanley

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Jackets keep the Wings honest with a surprise 2-0 win in Philadelphia. With all 3 teams having played 76 games, the Wings were a point behind Philly and a point ahead of Columbius. Flyers are not yet home-free.

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Wow, not only do the Leafs win but they do it before the shootout to pick up a ROW. . Wings playoff express hit a couple bumps tonight.

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Key Games Friday April 4

Buffalo at Detroit - This could be a trap game, not that there should be any when you're fighting tooth and nail for a spot. A win before the shootout would be nice, as that would prevent Washington from winning a tiebreaker over Detroit (the Wings have 6 more ROWs than Washington with each team having 6 games left) and would leave the Wings needing just 1 more ROW to ensure the tiebreaker edge over Toronto (Leafs have 2 fewer ROWs and have 4 games left; if tied on ROWs, the Wings get the edge as they won the season series, which is the 2nd tiebreaker). As it stands now, the Wings' magic number for points needed to clinch is 8 because of the remote possibility of the Caps winning a tiebreaker at 93 points. So a Wings' win in regulation or overtime would bring the magic number down to 5 points regardless of whatever teams do (Wings would have 88 points and would win a 93 pt tiebreaker with Washington)

Washington over New Jersey - Not easy to decide whom to prefer winning this game. Obviously don't want a 3-pointer. The Caps are 1 point ahead of NJ, both teams have 6 games left, but the Devils have the tiebreaker edge over both Washington and Detroit and the Devils only play one more game against a playoff team (Boston to end the season). So while the Devils can top out at 92 points, they could win a 92 pt tiebreaker over Detroit. But stepping back, at 5 points back and 6 points back respectively, neither the Capitals nor the Devils should be threats at all unless the Wings collapse.

Chicago at Columbus - Would love to see the Jackets lose in regulation tonight. While they have a very compressed schedule the rest of the way, they'll be favored in a lot of those games. 1 point back of the Wings, each have 6 games left, Jackets have the tiebreaker edge.

Montreal at Ottawa - What the hell, might as well cheer for the Sens. Habs are 7 points up on the Wings and have 5 games left. If the Wings were to win tonight and the Habs were to lose in regulation tonight and then the Wings were to go to Montreal and beat the Habs in regulation tomorrow, the Wings would be 3 points back of Montreal with a game in hand. Even if all that happened, chances of overtaking the Habs for 3rd place and a 1st round date against Tampa would be remote, as the Habs hold the tiebreaker

So what does this all mean? Simplest - If the Wings get 6 points from their final 6 games to get up to 92 points, and that includes 2 or more wins before the shootout, then the only way that doesn't clinch is if either Washington or New Jersey go 6-0 the rest of the way. Most logical candidates for the 6 points? Home games versus Buffalo and Carolina, road game versus Buffalo. Games in which the Wings might be underdogs? At Montreal, at Pittsburgh, at St. Louis. 5 points from 6 games, to get up to 91 points would be a pretty safe bet, even 90 points would probably be 50/50.

Edited by lordstanley

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A good few minutes! Devils score late to beat Washington 3-2 in regulation. Devils are at 82 points and can top out at 92 with the tiebreaker edge over Detroit. Caps are at 81 points and can top out at 91 and now CANNOT win a tiebreaker over Detroit. The Wings magic number is 7 points pending the outcome of tonight's Wings game.

Hawks score with 4 seconds to go to beat Columbus in regulation! BJs are still a point behind Detroit with the Wings with a chance to extend the lead with a victory tonight.

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Key Results of Friday April 4

Washington at New Jersey - Devils win in regulation with a late goal! Now NJD is ahead of Washington

Chicago at Columbus - Hawks help out the Wings (not to mention the Leafs) with the winning goal with 4 seconds left in regulation

Montreal at Ottawa - Habs maintain their 7 pt cushion over the Wings by winning 7-4 after trailing 3-0 early

Standings as at Fri PM

Philadelphia - 3rd place in Metro - 87 points with 6 games to go - 36 Regulation/OT Wins (ROWs)

Detroit - 1st wildcard - 88 points with 5 games to go - 32 ROWs

Columbus - 2nd wildcard - 85 points with 5 games to go - 34 ROWS

Toronto - Out of Playoffs Currently - 84 points with 4 games to go - 29 ROWs

New Jersey - Out of Playoffs Currently - 82 points with 5 games to go - 33 ROWs

Washington - Out of Playoffs Currently - 81 points with 5 games to go - 25 ROWs

Wings magic number is 5 POINTS. That would give them 93 points. Devils can top out at 92 points (but would win the tiebreaker over Detroit). Leafs can top out at 92 points (and would lose the tiebreaker over Detroit unless the Leafs pick up 4 more ROWs and the Wings pick up 0 more ROWs). Caps can top out at 91 points.

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Wings' dream scenario for Saturday

- Wings beat Montreal in regulation or OT

- Capitals lose at NYI in regulation, OT or SO

- Leafs lose to Winnipeg in regulation

- Devils lose in Carolina in regulation

If we get hose 4 results, the Wings will have clinched over Toronto and Washington. And their magic number would be down to 1 POINT over NJD to clinch a playoff spot.

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Hawks winning goal in the dying seconds to win it over Columbus. Man, if the Jackets weren't battling with the Wings, I'd feel really bad for them. After being so close last year and now teetering this year:

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Hawks winning goal in the dying seconds to win it over Columbus. Man, if the Jackets weren't battling with the Wings, I'd feel really bad for them. After being so close last year and now teetering this year:

I don't like the NHL allowing opposing players to score goals from inside the crease.

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