Jump to content

LooseGoose

2014 Elections - Will the Senate Flip?

Recommended Posts

I wouldn't count on Cornyn's seat for the Dems. Actually pretty funny:

Dem candidates for the seat who will be in a run off in May: (You've just got to read it. LOL) Texas turmoil for Dems! Pro-impeachment, anti-Obamacare Democrat pulls primary shocker - BizPac Review

This article gives you some background on Alameel and is very accurate. That guy put boatloads of cash into a try at Dist. 33 House Rep. He's very rich and very determined to get elected to something, anything. I laughed that it mentioned the billboards. They were EVERYWHERE, a local joke. Wendy Davis Endorses ... Dallas Dentist David Alameel's Doomed U.S. Senate Bid?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Democrats haven't had a week this bad since 2010 and its only Wednesday. While the headlines are focused on Democrats losing the special election in Florida's 13th Congressional district, even worse news came in the form of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released last night, along with four statewide surveys conducted by a highly-regarded Democratic pollster in key Senate race states.

When asked whether they thought the new health care law was a good idea or a bad idea, just 35 percent said it was a good idea, 49 percent said bad idea, both very similar data points to the results of this same question in December and January. Attitudes towards President Obama and the Democrats signature policy achievement are very negative and not getting any better.

What FL-13 Could Mean For Democrats

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's still too early to really be talking about this or taking anything seriously. You can't really make predictions until the primaries are over and you know who's going up against who.

But I just wanted to point out that Mark Pryor, who was just a few months ago given up to be a lost cause, has now led in four of the last AR senate polls.

2014 Arkansas Senate: Cotton vs. Pryor - Polls - HuffPost Pollster

Three of those polls look to be partisan sources, so I don't know how much credence to give them, and the fourth looks like a smaller outfit. But usually if one partisan polling outfit releases a favorable poll for their side, the other quickly releases a poll to refute it. But we haven't seen any R polling released in the last two months showing Cotton ahead or tied, so that should be taken into consideration. This may be due to Republicans in the AR state government blocking a minimum wage increase to an impoverished state--as well as trying to take away AR's Medicaid expansion under Obamacare via the "private option."

Also, in GA, Ms. Nunn has more than doubled each one of her possible R challengers in fundraising over the last quarter.

Also, Alison Lundergan Grimes is polling even with Mitch McConnell in what is still an anti-incumbent atmosphere. Kentucky has been a tremendous success re: Obamacare signups thanks to Democratic governor Steve Beshir helping (rather than thwarting) the process. That might end up being the tie breaker.

2014 Kentucky Senate: McConnell vs. Grimes - Polls - HuffPost Pollster

Edited by TheCouga

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And it appears Florida's prospect Alex Sink after losing a House seat to David Jolly in the special election has lost her favored support from her peers and is bowing out of the November election.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Using polls and approval ratings, the current close races in Alaska, Arkansas and Kentucky are estimated to favor Republicans. (For instance the model gives McConnell a 73 percent chance to win, which is quite close to Nate’s estimate.) In Louisiana, Obama’s rating hurts Democratic Senate candidate Mary Landrieu, but the current polling average this year already had her projected to lose. In Georgia and North Carolina, Obama’s approval rating is high enough that it doesn’t hurt the Democrats too much. Democrats Gary Peters in Michigan and Al Franken in Minnesota are likely helped a bit by President Obama. Overall, this simple model puts Democratic losses in the Senate at 6.8 seats, just off the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast of 5.8 seats, which takes into account other factors including fundraising totals and candidate ideology.

Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November | FiveThirtyEight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dumb president says we have 57 states. BFD.

From the article it doesn't seem like this guy had committed a flub, it was what he believed, would you agree?. I don't think Obama believed there were 57 states when he said that, do you?

Edited by pfife

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dumb president says we have 57 states. BFD.

Mistakes are different than sincerely saying mind-blowingly stupid things.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mistakes are different than sincerely saying mind-blowingly stupid things.

Excuses do not cover lack of knowledge. Those making them were once called "fluffers".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the charming back-and-forth of the partisan. it doesn't matter if the senate flips from d to r. they all come from the same stinking pile anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
the charming back-and-forth of the partisan. it doesn't matter if the senate flips from d to r. they all come from the same stinking pile anyway.

The thread is correct though, the public isn't going to suddenly elect a 3rd party to protest the Democrats. It will flip to the Elephant party based on historical trends and solid early polling. Despite the sometimes bad retail politics of the GOP, they are the "other" to the Democrats right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Excuses do not cover lack of knowledge. Those making them were once called "fluffers".

So you seriously think Obama doesn't know how many states there are? Are you being serious?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The thread is correct though, the public isn't going to suddenly elect a 3rd party to protest the Democrats. It will flip to the Elephant party based on historical trends and solid early polling. Despite the sometimes bad retail politics of the GOP, they are the "other" to the Democrats right now.

If the Senate flips, it will be because of the higher proportion of seats that are up for election are Democrats, not because there's some groundswell for the GOP, or a groundswell against Democrats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If the Senate flips, it will be because of the higher proportion of seats that are up for election are Democrats, not because there's some groundswell for the GOP, or a groundswell against Democrats.

let me guess, because the huge majority are switched on members of the collective who recognize that the whole outweighs concerns for property, rights and faith? And gosh darn it, we've had military and economic superiority over those foreign countries too long, its time to give other people a chance to run the World.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
let me guess, because the huge majority are switched on members of the collective who recognize that the whole outweighs concerns for property, rights and faith? And gosh darn it, we've had military and economic superiority over those foreign countries too long, its time to give other people a chance to run the World.

No, because the GOP polls horribly, and they inevitably nominate a few total nuttballz too

it has nothing to do with my personal politics or your personal politics, it's meta, man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No, because the GOP polls horribly, and they inevitably nominate a few total nuttballz too

it has nothing to do with my personal politics or your personal politics, it's meta, man

I do not disagree that it is meta

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire all end up going D but the odds look way high here.

Iowa I'm not convinced is 86% likelihood D either.

I think McConnell is overrated and Landrieu underrated.

The rest of their odds look pretty close to me based on what I've read.

Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ? NYTimes.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire all end up going D but the odds look way high here.

Iowa I'm not convinced is 86% likelihood D either.

I think McConnell is overrated and Landrieu underrated.

The rest of their odds look pretty close to me based on what I've read.

Who Will Win The Senate? ? The Upshot Senate Forecasts ?*NYTimes.com

I agree that Iowa seems like more of a tossup, but it still leans D at this point.

I do think Michigan is too pessimistic for the D side, though. MI seems to always provide false hope for Republicans, and I think Land is a relatively poor candidate. I'd put that closer to like 80% D.

I also thing Georgia is closer to a toss up. Normally, I'd give R the benefit of the doubt there, but Nunn is a fantastic candidate, and the R primary has turned into a clown show.

I think Hagan is pretty safe, too. The Koch's have hit her very hard lately with a barrage of negative advertising, and she hasn't really responded much (pointless to respond so early). When she does, she'll bounce back. Even with the negative barrage of ads, the polling is pretty close to break even. And Tom Tills is so cozy with the Koch Brothers, it's going to be easy to make both that and the lack of Medicaid expansion a huge issue in that race. I just don't think the R's are going to recruit a strong candidate here. Tills is polarizing, and the Koch Brothers have shown that despite all their money, they really don't know what they're doing when it comes to running political campaigns.

I think both Pryor and Landrieu are a bit underrated, but not by much. I'd put both at about 50/50 right now.

Also, it's too early for Republicans to put Mississippi in the bag right now. Normally I'd be crazy for saying this, but they have some Todd Aikin candidates that could possibly win the primary there, and Democrats have recruited probably one of the best candidates possible in Travis Childers. So we'll have to wait out the primary results on this one. Also, failure to expand Medicaid here will have a huge populist pull here that Childers can capitalize on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree that Iowa seems like more of a tossup, but it still leans D at this point.

I do think Michigan is too pessimistic for the D side, though. MI seems to always provide false hope for Republicans, and I think Land is a relatively poor candidate. I'd put that closer to like 80% D.

I also thing Georgia is closer to a toss up. Normally, I'd give R the benefit of the doubt there, but Nunn is a fantastic candidate, and the R primary has turned into a clown show.

I think Hagan is pretty safe, too. The Koch's have hit her very hard lately with a barrage of negative advertising, and she hasn't really responded much (pointless to respond so early). When she does, she'll bounce back. Even with the negative barrage of ads, the polling is pretty close to break even. And Tom Tills is so cozy with the Koch Brothers, it's going to be easy to make both that and the lack of Medicaid expansion a huge issue in that race. I just don't think the R's are going to recruit a strong candidate here. Tills is polarizing, and the Koch Brothers have shown that despite all their money, they really don't know what they're doing when it comes to running political campaigns.

I think both Pryor and Landrieu are a bit underrated, but not by much. I'd put both at about 50/50 right now.

Also, it's too early for Republicans to put Mississippi in the bag right now. Normally I'd be crazy for saying this, but they have some Todd Aikin candidates that could possibly win the primary there, and Democrats have recruited probably one of the best candidates possible in Travis Childers. So we'll have to wait out the primary results on this one. Also, failure to expand Medicaid here will have a huge populist pull here that Childers can capitalize on.

If I had the ambition I would link it, but the NYT had the generic Senate poll trend lines posted and it had the Dems at 51% chance of retaining the Senate as of today, but more significantly, the slope of the line has started to trend in their direction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If I had the ambition I would link it, but the NYT had the generic Senate poll trend lines posted and it had the Dems at 51% chance of retaining the Senate as of today, but more significantly, the slope of the line has started to trend in their direction.

TS, posted that...he was arguing that NYT was pushing their biases...maybe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
TS, posted that...he was arguing that NYT was pushing their biases...maybe

That's usually the argument when the trends favor Democrats...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's usually the argument when the trends favor Democrats...

Yeah concede the election to the Donkey Party because of that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      96,671
    • Total Posts
      2,975,318
  • Who's Online (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×
×
  • Create New...