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Doug Fister Traded to the Nationals

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Interesting thing with Sanchez is how he came back from that time off in June throwing his FB harder than he ever had in his career and he pushed his ERA down even further than his extra-ordinary 1st half. Jones again? How much of that can he sustain over the next season is a good question.

He's definitely taken a step up since joining the Tigers. Whatever's in the water at Comerica is working.

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They are probably a 90+ win team as currently constructed. And the Indians and royals aren't particularly close.

Their WS chances in 2014 are perfectly safe.

I think the second-place ALC team is likely to win more then 85 games, so I don't think they should pencil in a division title just yet. As for the 90 wins, based on my projections below and pythag I think you're probably right about that.

I think they would likely drop about 50 runs scored from 2013: 795 to 725, based on;

Cabrera at 140 RCs

Kinsler/VMart/Hunter/Jackson at 80 each

Dirks/Nick/Jose/Alex at 50 each

about 100 runs from the bench

(discounted by a WC-to-actual ratio of about negative 5%),

I think they would increase by about 30 runs allowed from 2013: 625 to 655:

No change in the bullpen (who the hell knows?)

JV improves by maybe 15 runs (from 94 to 80)

Scherzer/Sanchez regress by about 30 runs total (from 73 to 80 for Scherzer and from 56 to 80 for Sanchez)

Smyly + extra replacement starters add about 15 runs over Fister's innings (from 91 to 105)

Porcello stays about the same (about 90)

Total: about 725-655 -- based on pythag, it would be worth about 89 wins. As it stands, they would probably drop about 20-25 HRs from last year. With Beltran gone, the power options are probably pretty slim out there.

The danger is that their top five hitters have recently battled some injuries or are just old (Hunter)...and the Tigers bench is likely to be pretty poor, as usual.

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Exactly. The top 3 in the rotation is one of the best in the game. Porcello and Smyly are perfectly good to round it out. Still got Miggy, and proven, league average guys or better in 6 of the 9 positions, plus solid youth with Iglesias and Casty. An excellent closer. A solid 4th OF.

What's not to like?

Age, injuries, regression, lack of power, poor bench, inexperienced manager. That's not enough to lose the ALC but I don't like those things.

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That's an unbelievably pessimistic prediction and I don't see how you can possibly say the team as currently constructed is only a +70 run differential team. Steamer has them way beyond that.

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I think they end up extending Avila. Its tough to let capable starting catchers go. He takes a beating, but all catches do and he hasn't had anything majorly debilitating. Obviously a lot depends on how he hits over the next year or two too though.

I wouldn't be shocked if we re-sign Porcello either. He's homegrown, he stays healthy, he's reliable and an extension only takes you into his mid to late 20s. Buy out his last 2 arbitration, 2 years of free agency and give yourselves a team option or 2 if possible. It might help you save a little on his short term salary too.

I don't know a ton about either, but it would be nice if Schotts or Fields could take over in CF in the next year or two and we could trade Jackson for decent value. Ideally a power hitting RF I suppose.

I don't know much about either Fields or Schotts personally but Schotts is an atrocious hitter and Fields was able to hit AA only decently at age 23 with little power and a lot of strikeouts. Jackson is a pretty reliable plus fielder (despite his problems in 2013) and is a solid offensive producer. Downshifting from 80 RCs to 40-50 in CF to basically maintain what we have in RF more-or-less doesn't seem like a progressive plan to me.

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That's an unbelievably pessimistic prediction and I don't see how you can possibly say the team as currently constructed is only a +70 run differential team. Steamer has them way beyond that.

What part specifically is "unbelievable" other than the overall outcome that you don't like?

And a 90 win projection for this team as currently constructed is "unbelievably pessimistic"? We have downshifted offensively big-time and have major regression to contend with in the rotation even with a JV bounce-back, not to mention the Fister-to-Smyly change, and I'm still pythaging 90 wins.

I am assuming that the pieces of the offense produces nominally, and the bench would provide 100 runs, none of which is pessimistic at all.

C'mon people, let's be a little balanced in our perspective. This team has not in any way, shape or form improved itself this offseason on-the-field....it has taken several significant steps backwards..not enough to drop us out of the ALC title, but enough to make it tight.

Edited by sabretooth

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Why not just look at the Steamer projections and tell me what looks so unreasonable about those instead? Those are based on past years of data, after all.

Edit: I mean, -70 in runs scored? That's absurd. I don't have faith in the offense as constructed, but even I'm not that pessimistic on it.

Avila - will improve a lot, quite clearly

Cabrera - slightly worse

Kinsler - probably about the same as Infante

Hunter - slightly worse

Jackson - about the same

Iglesias - way worse than Peralta but we already endured 50 games of his crap hitting anyways

Martinez - about the same, maybe slightly better

Castellanos - worse than Prince

Dirks/??? - whoever plays here, I'm sure it'll be better than last year by a significant margin, even if it's Dirks, his BABIP was low last year

Not seeing the massive dropoff you are and you're also allowing for way more runs to be scored against the Tigers because, while the pitching performance has no chance of being repeated, the defense will be much better.

Edited by Unlock the Shrine

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Why not just look at the Steamer projections and tell me what looks so unreasonable about those instead? Those are based on past years of data, after all.

EDIT: OK, I see you added some stuff, I'll look at it and respond.

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What part specifically is "unbelievable" other than the overall outcome that you don't like?

And a 90 win projection for this team as currently constructed is "unbelievably pessimistic"? We have downshifted offensively big-time and have major regression to contend with in the rotation even with a JV bounce-back, not to mention the Fister-to-Smyly change, and I'm still pythaging 90 wins.

I am assuming that the pieces of the offense produces nominally, and the bench would provide 100 runs, none of which is pessimistic at all.

C'mon people, let's be a little balanced in our perspective. This team has not in any way, shape or form improved itself this offseason on-the-field....it has taken several significant steps backwards..not enough to drop us out of the ALC title, but enough to make it tight.

I don't question the numbers but I think last years team over rates. They finished with 93 last season so from there to 90 seems to me to be where we are right now. Add an OF and I would definitely feel better.

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In other words, you looked at the projections, realized that yours were way off, and are now going to pretend that you never saw them in the first place.

Got it.

Wait, what? Why are you claiming that I looked at Steamer then lied about it? Think about what you write before posting, that is a totally unnecessary cheap shot.

For the record, I haven't looked at anybody's projections...not that I don't respect them but I don't have to be in sych with any particular system/outcome to be reasonable.

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I don't question the numbers but I think last years team over rates. They finished with 93 last season so from there to 90 seems to me to be where we are right now. Add an OF and I would definitely feel better.

90 wins is what I said....I get the feeling that people think I'm projecting doom here...what is up?

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Why not just look at the Steamer projections and tell me what looks so unreasonable about those instead? Those are based on past years of data, after all.

Edit: I mean, -70 in runs scored? That's absurd. I don't have faith in the offense as constructed, but even I'm not that pessimistic on it.

Avila - will improve a lot, quite clearly

Cabrera - slightly worse

Kinsler - probably about the same as Infante

Hunter - slightly worse

Jackson - about the same

Iglesias - way worse than Peralta but we already endured 50 games of his crap hitting anyways

Martinez - about the same, maybe slightly better

Castellanos - worse than Prince

Dirks/??? - whoever plays here, I'm sure it'll be better than last year by a significant margin, even if it's Dirks, his BABIP was low last year

Not seeing the massive dropoff you are and you're also allowing for way more runs to be scored against the Tigers because, while the pitching performance has no chance of being repeated, the defense will be much better.

Avila - I like Avila and you may be right, but he's never produced over 60 RCs other than 2011....it seems unrealistic to expect him to do much more than 50-60....so maybe I'm 10-20 runs worse than you here?

Cabrera - no disagreement, that's where I pegged him.

Kinsler - Actually Kinsler will likely outproduce Infante by about 30 runs (80 vs. 50), that's where I have him anyway -- 30 runs better than you said.

Hunter - that's where I have him.

Jackson - that's where I have him.

Iglesias - that's where I have him.

Martinez - I have him a little bit worse but he could be a little bit better, not much diff either way...maybe 10 runs worse than you.

Castellanos - waaaay worse than Prince....by about 50 runs I'm betting (50 vs. 100)....I don't know where you see him landing but he would be challenging for ROY if he did much better than that.

Dirks/??? - Dirks has never produced above 50 runs in a season, even with a good BABIP I have a hard time seeing him as a bigger producer. If they get a bigger bat I will project it, but the premise Shelton set was "as currently constructed"...so I don't see how any runs would be added here with Dirks...maybe I'm 10 runs worse than you here?

I think my projection for the bench at 100 runs is probably optimistic...their backup C will almost certainly not match Pena's lucky 24 runs....nor will Kelly produce 25 runs again....and as bad a Tui was in the 2nd half he still produced 28 runs in only about 200 PAs -- very few bench players can do that. I could easily see the bench falling back by 20-30 runs. I'm probably more optimistic with 100 runs here than anybody else would likely be.

Anyway, based on the bolded adjustments you and I would be about the same....the only remaining question marks are (a) do you think that Nick C would produce more than 50 RCs, and do you think that 100 RCs for the bench is low? If the answer to either is "yes", then tell me what you think it should be. As it stands I don't see where this huge difference between you and I lies.

EDIT: you can see from the comparison down a few posts below between my off-the-cuff-stuff and Steamer that we are pretty damn close...they projected a 43 wRC drop and I projected a 74 wRC drop...not a big difference on any of them considering that I did mine off the top of my head.

Chillax

Edited by sabretooth

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I mean, -70 in runs scored? That's absurd. I don't have faith in the offense as constructed, but even I'm not that pessimistic on it.

I also don't see why this is so strange....we dropped Fielder for Kinsler, a 20 run drop just in 2013, and we are changing out Peralta/Iglesias (64+17) for just Iglesias, which is probably at least a 30 run downshift right there. Those two changes right there are worth a 50 run drop.

I have assumed that Nick C matches Infante's production -- that's surely not pessimistic.

I think people need to get a little perspective about what we have on this team and what we dropped in Fielder...even for a down year he produced over 100 runs in 2013...that is huge production.

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90 wins is what I said....I get the feeling that people think I'm projecting doom here...what is up?

WE WANT IT ALL! :classic:

I think last year's team took as many hits to score a run as a team with a worse offense would have done and I wonder if that didn't result in the sum of our player values over estimating the offensive potential the team had last year or would have had again this year with the same personel. A whole equal to less than the sum of its parts. Probably because of the extraordinarily bad team base running. I'm sure that whatever range team base running factors are normally correlated across, the tigers were out of that range on the bad side last season and so represented extrapolation into terra incognita - with the attendant increase in uncertainty.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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WE WANT IT ALL! :classic:

I think last year's team took as many hits to score a run as a team with a worse offense would have done and I wonder if that didn't result in the sum of our player values over estimating the offensive potential the team had last year or would have had again this year with the same personel. A whole equal to less than the sum of its parts. Probably because of the extraordinarily bad team base running. I'm sure that whatever range team base running factors are normally correlated across, the tigers were out of that range on the bad side last season and so represented extrapolation into terra incognita - with the attendant increase in uncertainty.

I see your point and I'm inclined to agree with your assessment...however my projections for 2014 were done de novo...I'm only referencing 2013 just for comparative purposes, so there should be no "taint" from any 2013 anomalies.

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So I went ahead and downloaded Steamer's projections for 2014 and compared the wRCs:



Name Sabretooth Steamer Diff
Miguel Cabrera 140 137 3
Victor Martinez 80 88 -8
Austin Jackson 80 83 -3
Ian Kinsler 80 84 -4
Alex Avila 50 59 -9
Torii Hunter 80 80 0
Andy Dirks 50 60 -10
Nick Castellanos 50 61 -11
Jose Iglesias 50 54 -4
Bench 100 86 14
Total 760 791 -31

Yeah, I'm like, crazy, man. Why don't I just get with it....damn.

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Maybe I missed something, but you said they would be 70 runs worse.

They were at 796 last year.

Yet your projection above says 760, which appears to be 36 runs.

And your projection of 760 is 31 runs worse than steamer, making you pessimistic relative to an objective projection system by three wins.

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Seriously, every one of your projections, other than Cabrera and the bench, is less than what steamer projects.

There is nothing wrong with doing your own projections, and they don't need to align with anyone else's, but still....

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I think people need to get a little perspective on what we really have on this team.

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Yeah, I'm like, crazy, man. Why don't I just get with it....damn.

I don't see either one of you accounting for Don Kelly. Without his numbers it's all a steaming pile.

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All those advanced stats make my eyes glaze over, so I won't be quoting those anytime soon. But I will say that I agree with Sabertooth......as it stands now, this team is not as good as last season's.

However, I fully expect DD to rectify this before opening day.

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You guys fail to realize that with Cano AND Choo in the lineup, this is a non-issue.

Of course with those two here, no one could afford a ticket to see them play....................... :)

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C'mon people, let's be a little balanced in our perspective. This team has not in any way, shape or form improved itself this offseason on-the-field....it has taken several significant steps backwards..not enough to drop us out of the ALC title, but enough to make it tight.

I agree that as of today we are a worse team than we were at the end of 2013. But I disagree that we haven't improved in any way. Our defense is poised to be substantially better in 2014 than in 2013. I think you have to factor that into your run prevention analysis. Even if the pitching inevitably takes a step back in 2014, some (lots?) of that difference will be offset by the defensive improvement. Hell, Iglesias could himself be a 20 run improvement defensively next year.

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Why not just look at the Steamer projections and tell me what looks so unreasonable about those instead? Those are based on past years of data, after all.

Edit: I mean, -70 in runs scored? That's absurd. I don't have faith in the offense as constructed, but even I'm not that pessimistic on it.

Avila - will improve a lot, quite clearly

Cabrera - slightly worse

Kinsler - probably about the same as Infante

Hunter - slightly worse

Jackson - about the same

Iglesias - way worse than Peralta but we already endured 50 games of his crap hitting anyways

Martinez - about the same, maybe slightly better

Castellanos - worse than Prince

Dirks/??? - whoever plays here, I'm sure it'll be better than last year by a significant margin, even if it's Dirks, his BABIP was low last year

Not seeing the massive dropoff you are and you're also allowing for way more runs to be scored against the Tigers because, while the pitching performance has no chance of being repeated, the defense will be much better.

Quite a change in opinion over a 10 hour span:

Nope, we don't agree, because without another big bat this team has no shot at winning anything and that's the only thing I deem a successful season.

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