Jump to content
spikesglaring

Doug Fister Traded to the Nationals

Recommended Posts

They value Ray extremely highly. That's basically all there is to it. There is nothing wrong with that even if it means they are going against the consensus of publicly available info. We'll see if they end up being right.

People's perception of the trade, mine included, would likely be different if he was rated as a top 50 prospect by the online scouting community. That doesn't even seem rational b/c I've never seen him play and those scouting people are a lot less informed than MLB front office execs.

Teams are also trading for what they think Fister will produce the next two years rather than what his WAR was the last 3 years on Fangraphs. If the perception is that his velocity might dip a bit now that he's 30 and had a few injuries and he'll regress to be the average starter that he was in Seattle, then the return of one top 100 prospect and two other spare parts makes a lot more sense.

There's a business opportunity for a scout or former MLB scout to start his own site and use his contacts of anonymous scouts to post their opinions about players and trades and FA signings, etc. That would be a good compliment to places like Fangraphs. A player's value isn't as simple as pulling up a list of the top WAR pitchers from the last 3 years and then scanning who Baseball America and MLB.com has as top 100 prospects and then forming an opinion of a trade or the player's involved. I'm pretty guilty of that.

This post all day over half of ranting and crying I've read all thread long.

It's really simple. Ray's status has been on the upswing and possibly some of these "scouting experts" are a little late to the game on that. Tons of players playign today who are 3 plus WAR guys who weren't top 100 prospects or top 50. Think of how Scherzer was viewed 5 years ago. He's gonna be a closer!!!!! It's not the end all and be all. I'd imagine if Ray improves this year over last years stats he would move into the top 100 as well, if thats what everbody really needs, some John Sickels nerd disciple having said player in his little top 100 list.

When you make trades, and if you are a GM worth their salt, you're trading(at least I would be) for what you project that player to be going forward than what he WAS. I'm beyond confident that Fister will not match his past three year WAR total in the next 3 years. The hits against jumped and his k-rate went down. Velocity has gone down a bit as well. The groin and side injuries maybe are more worrisome than the average fans believes as well. Maybe there is something else we just don't know.

I agree on paper it looks like we got somewhat hosed in this deal, more so becasue of the fact we are basically trying to win a WS in a two year window here. Hell, maybe one year window. If we got some really good loogy innings from Krol this year and Smyly can pitch close or better than he did in 2012, we will be ok for the short term. Bonus would be if Ray contributes down the stretch in anyway(spot start,DL call up...bullpen lefty..ie). Alot of pressure on this Ray kid though to pan out, can't wait to see if he's up to the task.

There's a chance that Fister goes the Dan Haren route. Like someone else mentioned earlier, this whole trade, Ray withstanding, will have a final verdict based on Fisters regression rate vs Smylys progression rate in the end. Only small problem is I can't see Drew going more than 130-140 innings next year.

Edited by Bondo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BetMGM Michigan $600 Risk-Free bet

BetMGM Michigan Sports Betting
Michigan online sports betting is now available! Start betting at BetMGM Michigan now and get a $600 risk-free bet bonus at their online sportsbook & casino.

Claim $600 risk-free bet at BetMGM Michigan Now

This post all day over half of ranting and crying I've read all thread long.

It's really simple. Ray's status has been on the upswing and possibly some of these "scouting experts" are a little late to the game on that. Tons of players playign today who are 3 plus WAR guys who weren't top 100 prospects or top 50. Think of how Scherzer was viewed 5 years ago. He's gonna be a closer!!!!! It's not the end all and be all. I'd imagine if Ray improves this year over last years stats he would move into the top 100 as well, if thats what everbody really needs, some John Sickels nerd disciple having said player in his little top 100 list.

When you make trades, and if you are a GM worth their salt, you're trading(at least I would be) for what you project that player to be going forward than what he WAS. I'm beyond confident that Fister will not match his past three year WAR total in the next 3 years. The hits against jumped and his k-rate went down. Velocity has gone down a bit as well. The groin and side injuries maybe are more worrisome than the average fans believes as well. Maybe there is something else we just don't know.

I agree on paper it looks like we got somewhat hosed in this deal, more so becasue of the fact we are basically trying to win a WS in a two year window here. Hell, maybe one year window. If we got some really good loogy innings from Krol this year and Smyly can pitch close or better than he did in 2012, we will be ok for the short term. Bonus would be if Ray contributes down the stretch in anyway(spot start,DL call up...bullpen lefty..ie). Alot of pressure on this Ray kid though to pan out, can't wait to see if he's up to the task.

There's a chance that Fister goes the Dan Haren route. Like someone else mentioned earlier, this whole trade, Ray withstanding, will have a final verdict based on Fisters regression rate vs Smylys progression rate in the end. Only small problem is I can't see Drew going more than 130-140 innings next year.

Dude, this trade blows ballz.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dude, this trade blows ballz.

Well if that's your thing. No judgment here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dave has a reputation for making great trades. Except that most of those great trades were the ones in which he gave up prospects for MLB talent. In those cases the prospects they gave up bombed for the most part, while the MLB talent we received performed great. Hence, the trades looked awesome.

In this case they traded MLB talent for prospects. Judging from the previous trades, I don't have faith in DD's ability to judge prospects.

That's why I dislike this trade.

I think this trade (could) end up being like the Granderson trade (but obviously less of a blockbuster). During the Granderson trade we were still more or less in "win now" mode and nobody understood why he would trade for a "good but not great" prospect in Austin Jackson, we got a "good but not great" Max Scherzer who had a violent delivery and was more or less unproven (definitely wasn't seen as a future Cy-Young award winner), and Granderson and Edwin Jackson were similar to Fister in that they were very solid players for us, but not world-beaters who we desperately missed once they were gone. Now all of that being said, I think DD should have gotten a little more for Fister who has been a plus pitcher for us, but I have faith that DD will make this offseason a net positive instead of a net negative that many think its headed towards.

And in reference to what I bolded, what trades where DD gave up MLB talent for prospects has soured? The #1 DD miss has probably been Jurrjens for Renteria, which was prospect for MLB talent, so what trades are you referencing?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was referencing the trades where we gave away prospects for MLB talent.

In almost every case, the prospects did not pan out for the other team.

Therefore my comment about Dave's judgement of prospects.

Of course, I guess one could argue that that is the reason he got rid of them. Because he realized they were not going to be good and foisted them off before other GMs came to the same conclusion.

Still, the Tigers did draft those guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was referencing the trades where we gave away prospects for MLB talent.

In almost every case, the prospects did not pan out for the other team.

Therefore my comment about Dave's judgement of prospects.

Of course, I guess one could argue that that is the reason he got rid of them. Because he realized they were not going to be good and foisted them off before other GMs came to the same conclusion.

Still, the Tigers did draft those guys.

Well we drafted players with high ceilings that scouts were enamored with. If they had lower ceilings at the time of the trade they probably wouldn't have fetched a perenial hall of famer. Both Miller and Maybin were top 20 prospects, I'm sure if we had players lower on the list even if they ended up being better future big league players then the deal never materializes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't help but wonder if Lombardozzi is going to be targeted for 3B in 2014 right now. Based on his minor league stats.....he offers an upside of Omar Infante with better plate discipline. Best case scenario would be a .800 OPS. I think we are more realistically looking at a .700 OPS. Which is terrible for 3B. But at the same time.....we have Victor Martinez and Cabrera for a total of 3 openings at DH, 1B, and 3B. Signing Choo doesn't change this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think he does see something that others don't see, but it doesn't mean he's right.

Dave sees a LHP that can touch 97 with a K/9 above 9--in AA ball as a 21 year old. It's pretty obvious what he values in pitchers. These guys don't always learn to refine their control, but if they do, they're pretty effective.

Some will be hits, and some will be misses, but I don't think it's surprising that Ray is valued more by DD than the rest of the league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

one word john smoltz = tigers trade prospect for atlanta starting pitcher and lost this deal

Edited by kellmellus50

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was referencing the trades where we gave away prospects for MLB talent.

In almost every case, the prospects did not pan out for the other team.

Therefore my comment about Dave's judgement of prospects.

Of course, I guess one could argue that that is the reason he got rid of them. Because he realized they were not going to be good and foisted them off before other GMs came to the same conclusion.

Still, the Tigers did draft those guys.

one word john smoltz = tigers trade prospect for atlanta starting pitcher and lost this deal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still think we should have gotten better supporting prospects though. We could have done better than Lombardozzi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was referencing the trades where we gave away prospects for MLB talent.

In almost every case, the prospects did not pan out for the other team.

Therefore my comment about Dave's judgement of prospects.

Of course, I guess one could argue that that is the reason he got rid of them. Because he realized they were not going to be good and foisted them off before other GMs came to the same conclusion.

Still, the Tigers did draft those guys.

everybody misses on draft picks, that's why baseball doesn't have the parity football does. Does Dave miss on picks more than other GMs? I don't have numbers but the one aspect of his drafting strategy I will agree I don't like is drafting college relievers. I don't know if his hit/miss rate is actually better or worse within drafting out of that pool but I do think its not a good pool to get in as much as DD does. That said, once guys start to play professionally a little bit, his judgment on their upsides has seemed to be pretty good. If you want to be optimistic take comfort that Ray is not draftee but a playing pro.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
one word john smoltz = tigers trade prospect for atlanta starting pitcher and lost this deal

Dombrowksi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
one word john smoltz = tigers trade prospect for atlanta starting pitcher and lost this deal

I don't know how old you are, but that was a great trade for the Tigers, one that they would make over and over again if they had a chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I still think we should have gotten better supporting prospects though. We could have done better than Lombardozzi.

I have been in love with Danny Espinosa for 3 years. I can't help but think he could have been a toss-in due to his horrible 2013.

In all likelihood....Espinosa is done. But that is why you target spare parts like this. Maybe.....just maybe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't know how old you are, but that was a great trade for the Tigers, one that they would make over and over again if they had a chance.

I'm not convinced of this. What did it get them? Won the division but booted from the first round. Smoltz may have never developed in the Tigers system, or he could have become the ace that he was. Maybe they trade him when he's 25 and get a huge haul for him, they were already a decent team in the early 90's.

It could have played out many ways, but I don't think it's as clear-cut as you make it seem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the surface this trade sucks. Prospect lists validate the trade at the deals inception. Its still impossible to judge a trade when prospects are involved until at least the two year mark. At the end of the day, its about picking the right prospect. The Choo trade was validated by pundits based on Bauer's upside and prospect ranking. So far it looks like Bauer is a bust! If Ray becomes a 2-to-3 win pitcher in years 2015-2017 while making minimum wage the deal will be decent regardless of how Fister performs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not convinced of this. What did it get them? Won the division but booted from the first round. Smoltz may have never developed in the Tigers system, or he could have become the ace that he was. Maybe they trade him when he's 25 and get a huge haul for him, they were already a decent team in the early 90's.

It could have played out many ways, but I don't think it's as clear-cut as you make it seem.

It also isn't as bad as many suggest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Like someone else mentioned earlier, this whole trade, Ray withstanding, will have a final verdict based on Fisters regression rate vs Smylys progression rate in the end.

Wrong. Those are independent events that have nothing to do with each other. If that's what this trade is to be valued upon, they could have gotten to the same place by non-tendering Fister and moving Smyly to the rotation. Trades are valued based upon what you give versus what you get. Not based upon who you can shift around as a result of the trade. That might be a factor as to why you consider the trade, but not how a trade is judged.

If five years, we will see how this trade panned out. You never know until you have the benefit of hindsight. But we do know that most MLB veteran for prospect trades do not work out for the team getting the prospects. The issue here is that we didn't get a top prospect, nor did we get multiple prospects to hedge against prospect failure and give ourselves more opportunities to get value out of the trade. This whole trade rests on the future performance of Ray. That's like going to the roulette table and betting everything on #7 because it's your favorite number. Does Ray equate to #7, I hope he does. Odds are that he doesn't .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not convinced of this. What did it get them? Won the division but booted from the first round. Smoltz may have never developed in the Tigers system, or he could have become the ace that he was. Maybe they trade him when he's 25 and get a huge haul for him, they were already a decent team in the early 90's.

It could have played out many ways, but I don't think it's as clear-cut as you make it seem.

I'm sure the 80's version of Dave Cameron and Keith Law panned that deal instanly for the Braves suggesting they should have asked for a higher ceiling pitcher like Steve Searcy or Kevin Ritz!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have been in love with Danny Espinosa for 3 years. I can't help but think he could have been a toss-in due to his horrible 2013.

In all likelihood....Espinosa is done. But that is why you target spare parts like this. Maybe.....just maybe.

I was a little surprised he was not non-tendered, but I guess after his 2013 season, they figure he isn't in for much of a raise.

Also, Espinosa would have made a lot more sense in the trade than Lombardozzi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It also isn't as bad as many suggest.

Agreed. There's an obvious benefit to both sides. Smoltz was fortunate to land in the perfect situation. Hard to say how he would have fared in the Tigers' system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was a little surprised he was not non-tendered, but I guess after his 2013 season, they figure he isn't in for much of a raise.

Also, Espinosa would have made a lot more sense in the trade than Lombardozzi.

Dave didn't want to pay more than the minimum for a utility player and releiver that's why they weren't included in the deal. The deal would be worse if Storen and Espinosa were in there becuase you could of got two similar type players on the open market for the same price!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fister will probably be a 6-7 win player, give or take, over the next two years of his contract. For argument's sake, let's also say he declines a qualifying offer that gets the nats a compensation pick. That pick, on average, will fall between the first and second round, so in the 30-40 range. Picks in that range, on average, produce about 3 wins.

So we gave up 10 wins that would have cost us about 18 million. 10 wins generally costs about 50 million.

We need to get back 32 million of value, or about 6 wins.

Lombardozzi and krol are probably good for at least 2 total wins over their tenure as tigers.

So the question then becomes whether or not Ray can be worth 4 wins.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dave didn't want to pay more than the minimum for a utility player and releiver that's why they weren't included in the deal. The deal would be worse if Storen and Espinosa were in there becuase you could of got two similar type players on the open market for the same price!

First, I didn't mention Storen. I said Espinosa makes more sense than Lombardozzi, and he does. Espinosa made $500k last year and certainly can't be in line for a huge jump given his disasterous season. Lombardozzi also made $500k and is likely to get an increase. If there is a AAAA player available for about nothing in the free agent market, its a guy like Lombardozzi. He's like a Don Kelly clone, except he's a switch hitter. Espinosa at least provides some upside, if you can straighten him out.

And although I didn't mention Storen, he would have been a good acquisiton. He's projected to make $3.6 million and could set-up or close. If you take the difference in the salary that we will be paying to Nathan, that's another $6 million to invest in another quality reliever to solidify our bulllpen. That wuold have made a lot of sense because we need a lot more depth in our pen, not just a closer. Good middle relievers sign for over $5 million/season, so Storen could not have been had in the free agent pool for the same price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Michigan Sports Betting Offer

Michigan launched online sports betting and casino apps on Friday, January 22, 2021. We have selected the top Michigan sportsbooks and casinos that offer excellent bonus offers. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers Michigan - Get a 100% up to $250 deposit bonus at their online sportsbook & casino.

Click Here to claim $250 deposit bonus at BetRivers Michigan For Signing Up Now

FanDuel Michigan - Get a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel Michigan on your first bet.

Click Here to claim $1,000 Risk-Free Bet at FanDuel Michigan

BetMGM Michigan - Get a $600 risk-free bet at the BetMGM online casino & sportsbook

Click Here to claim $600 risk-free bet at BetMGM Michigan

   


  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      97,012
    • Total Posts
      3,057,965
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×
×
  • Create New...