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Doug Fister Traded to the Nationals

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Dd likes ray so much that he asked the nats for taylor jordan but were given ray instead.

Who first reported this? Just wondering how credible that report really is.

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Jordan is a nice pitcher but does not miss bats like Ray does. I don't really know much about either prospect but based on their stats, age, and the few scouting reports I read, Ray may actually have the more upside.

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More important than the Tigers valuation of Ray would be the Nationals valuation of Ray. If they value Ray similarly to most everybody else, than the Tigers still got took, because they could have gotten Ray + an additional prospect.

Well, that also depends on how much they value Fister.

Basically, based on publicly available stats and scouting info, it looks like Fister is a top 15 starter and the Tigers didn't even get a top 100 prospect back in return. Going strictly off publicly available info, this is a terrible trade. I think either Fister is not valued anywhere near as highly in front offices partly due to concerns about his aging/velocity holding up or Ray is viewed significantly better. Or, more likely, some combination of the two.

It just seems like if something appears way off or too good to be true on Washington's end, then there is something people don't know or are missing that will make sense in a year or two when things play out a bit more.

Edited by Scottwood

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I still hate this trade.
That would be Huge!
Not sure. It's on mlbtr.

According to the initial trade thread in mlb trade rumors the Tigers asked for a fourth player Taylor Jordan but Rizzo said no!

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I am not a fan of the trade, but maybe it will play out better in time. I see Kieth Law is continuing to crush the Tigers on this and the Nathan deal, but he doesn't really know what he is talking about. In July 2011, after the Tigers traded for Fister, Law said the Mariners easily won the deal. He said they sold high on two pitchers with huge home park effects for a package of top prospects.

"Seattle really made out like a bandit here, converting two pitchers whose value came in large part due to their home park and Seattle's great defense into three known prospects and reportedly a fourth who might be the best or second-best guy in the deal. Detroit gets a little depth in its rotation but gives up more value than it gets back."

Of course none of those guys have done much at all, with Furbush the only one to stay in the majors. So Law said Fister is not much of anything, now he is one of the best SP's around. No wonder he does not work for a MLB team anymore.

Mariners come out ahead on Fister deal - Keith Law Blog - ESPN

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I am not a fan of the trade, but maybe it will play out better in time. I see Kieth Law is continuing to crush the Tigers on this and the Nathan deal, but he doesn't really know what he is talking about. In July 2011, after the Tigers traded for Fister, Law said the Mariners easily won the deal. He said they sold high on two pitchers with huge home park effects for a package of top prospects.

"Seattle really made out like a bandit here, converting two pitchers whose value came in large part due to their home park and Seattle's great defense into three known prospects and reportedly a fourth who might be the best or second-best guy in the deal. Detroit gets a little depth in its rotation but gives up more value than it gets back."

Of course none of those guys have done much at all, with Furbush the only one to stay in the majors. So Law said Fister is not much of anything, now he is one of the best SP's around. No wonder he does not work for a MLB team anymore.

Mariners come out ahead on Fister deal - Keith Law Blog - ESPN

No question he is a moron. He just so happens to agree with pretty much everyone else that the Tigers did not get enough in this instance so he happens to probably be right.

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So we can no put an end to the speculation that DD couldn't have gotten more value. It's laughable that such speculation was even there in the first place. The Tigers could have gotten more, there is no doubt whatsoever about that. It's evident they simply rate Robby Ray significantly higher than everybody else in the scouting world.

More correctly "more value in other's eyes". In DD's eyes it seems Ray was who he wanted.

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Most here have probably already seen this, but if you haven't, here's a nice analysis of the trade from MLBtraderumors.com

Detroit Tigers Rumors: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

From the comments:

Alex Anthopoulos on the Fister trade (via Fan590) - 'Dave’s great to deal with, he’s very candid and up front– he just said, ‘We looked at all of the organizations, and we’re looking for certain players, and we don’t know that we line up in trade with you guys.’

To me, it seems they were looking for a near ML-ready starter, and a cheap bullpen arm. Maybe the other organizations interested didn't have that. Altho still could have worked out a 3-way for more value I suspect.

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When the Tigers made the Jackson-Scherzer deal 4 years ago, Keith Law predicted that Scherzer would end up in the bullpen.

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Maybe DD thinks Ray is a top 20 or top 50 prospect.

Many are basing value on what the internet lists say.

If DD values Ray highly, which he obviously does, then he didn't settle for a worse deal.

Why should he trade for a guy higher on Keith law's list if he doesn't value the guy more than Ray?

It's not like Ray is some middling prospect. You can't just get him otherwise by offering up Dirks.

You also can't sit around and wait for the perfect deal when a good deal is on the table. You pass it up, and maybe Washington trades for David price or signs a free agent instead.

By this metric literally every deal or signing that DD ever makes is a good one, because he certainly wouldn't make it if he didn't like the player.

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By this metric literally every deal or signing that DD ever makes is a good one, because he certainly wouldn't make it if he didn't like the player.

That's what makes him a good GM. He's not like other GMS who trade for players they dislike.

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No, but I think the point is DD has a pretty good track record in trades. He knows what he wants and is usually very decisive and aggressive about going after it. Robbie Ray may not pan out, but DD has a pretty good eye for talent, so it seems very premature to call this trade a bust b/c Ray isn't on BA or BP's Top 100 prospect list.

In 2010, DD was able to get Castellanos at pick 44. He later revealed how delighted he and his team were that Nick slid to them. He never said where exactly Nick was on their board, but I believe he hinted that they would have taken him with a top 3 or 5 pick. And he would have been smart to do it. I just looked at the 2010 draft board and there are maybe only 4 players picked between 4 and 44 who are on par or better than Nick.

Edited by irvink

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By this metric literally every deal or signing that DD ever makes is a good one, because he certainly wouldn't make it if he didn't like the player.

When it comes to subjective value judgments given a particular roster construction strategy, yes.

If you disagree with trading fister for prospects, fine.

But it's hard to fault him for liking one guy more than another when it comes to scouting.

His track record in trades has been pretty good, wouldn't you say?

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Dave has a reputation for making great trades. Except that most of those great trades were the ones in which he gave up prospects for MLB talent. In those cases the prospects they gave up bombed for the most part, while the MLB talent we received performed great. Hence, the trades looked awesome.

In this case they traded MLB talent for prospects. Judging from the previous trades, I don't have faith in DD's ability to judge prospects.

That's why I dislike this trade.

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Dave has a reputation for making great trades. Except that most of those great trades were the ones in which he gave up prospects for MLB talent. In those cases the prospects they gave up bombed for the most part, while the MLB talent we received performed great. Hence, the trades looked awesome.

In this case they traded MLB talent for prospects. Judging from the previous trades, I don't have faith in DD's ability to judge prospects.

That's why I dislike this trade.

Perfectly well put. I would almost call this move desperate.

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Dave has a reputation for making great trades. Except that most of those great trades were the ones in which he gave up prospects for MLB talent. In those cases the prospects they gave up bombed for the most part, while the MLB talent we received performed great. Hence, the trades looked awesome.

In this case they traded MLB talent for prospects. Judging from the previous trades, I don't have faith in DD's ability to judge prospects.

That's why I dislike this trade.

I would say this about any GM. The team that trades prospects for a proven player has a better chance at success in a trade. Dombrowski is indeed good at trading, but if he was on the prospect end of more deals, it's not likely that his track record would be as stellar. It's nice to be backed by a owner who likes to spend.

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No question he is a moron. He just so happens to agree with pretty much everyone else that the Tigers did not get enough in this instance so he happens to probably be right.

Or maybe everybody else, along with Law, is wrong? Just because there is a consensus does not make something right/wrong. I am going to go out on a limb and say that some of the players drafted ahead of Fister never made it to the big leagues. Lots of wrong there from a lot of experts.

The possible disconnect as alluded to earlier was that perhaps no other GM was offering up a close to major league ready arm like Ray. I think cruzer mentioned that Ray offers good insurance in terms of timing if Scherzer walks after his contract is up. Granted, it isn't fair to assume that Ray will post Cy Young numbers, but it should still be a pretty darn good rotation with the other 4 SPs under contract.

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good stuff in this thread, thanks guys

Agreed. Aside from some of the predictable bellyaching and whining, there has been some good back and forth.

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By this metric literally every deal or signing that DD ever makes is a good one, because he certainly wouldn't make it if he didn't like the player.

Value is in the eye of the beholder. DD isn't out to impress the pundits. If he and his staff didn't go out and the guys they value but rather focused on the guys others value then he's not doing a good job. All these people ripping him are doing it on the basis of simply names on a sheet of paper. They don't know these prospects.

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Value is in the eye of the beholder. DD isn't out to impress the pundits. If he and his staff didn't go out and the guys they value but rather focused on the guys others value then he's not doing a good job. All these people ripping him are doing it on the basis of simply names on a sheet of paper. They don't know these prospects.

Of course, Dombrowski needs to use his own information rather than data on the internet. However, I think the consensus of internet scouts, while not infallible, works well enough where it makes sense to question a trade if there is not evidence of somebody being an elite prospect. The only support I'm seeing for the trade is "Dombrowski never makes bad trades so he must know something". I think he does see something that others don't see, but it doesn't mean he's right. He loved Steve Colyer and Ryan Perry too.

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Maybe Dave believes in karma and since he stole Fister in a 'bad' trade he feels obligated to do the same when he trades him away.

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