Jump to content
spikesglaring

Doug Fister Traded to the Nationals

Recommended Posts

The only problem is DD released last night they thought Ray was a potential #3. DD is good at keeping quiet. But when he talks he doesn't normally lie. So he views Ray as a #3.

#3 on the Tigers staff or #3 on a normal staff?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BetMGM Michigan $600 Risk-Free bet

BetMGM Michigan Sports Betting
Michigan online sports betting is now available! Start betting at BetMGM Michigan now and get a $600 risk-free bet bonus at their online sportsbook & casino.

Claim $600 risk-free bet at BetMGM Michigan Now

One more thing regarding whether or not this return for fister was good enough.

Fister is basically under contract for 2/18. That's a good deal, but it's also a short deal. It's great for a team that doesn't want to hand out a 3 or 4 or 5 year deal for a starter.

At the same time, he's going to need to be extended in a couple years for what is likely a large amount of money, or he's going to walk.

Any team looking at fister could also address their need for a SP through free agency. There are a good number of free agent starters that are comparable to fister. Maybe not quite as good, but comparable.

Nolasco signed for 4/49.

Obviously, fister is on a better contract, but how much better, really?

The difference between the two is covered by the value of the players that Washington gave up.

No team is going to give up an elite prospect or two to upgrade from nolasco at 4/49 to fister at 2/18.

The return for fister was more than fair, and was exactly the type of trade the tigers needed to make if they want to remain competitive in the coming years.

Perfectly said

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The only way this deal makes sense to me is that the Tigers like Ray a whole lot better than the internet prospecting community does. Maybe they think he's better than a #3 or #4. That's certainly possible.

I think that's a pretty fair conclusion to draw.

I also think that the internet prospecting community is given way too much credit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There is a fair case to be made that the Marlins got more for 40% of a season of Nolasco than the Tigers got for two seasons of Fister.

Ricky Nolasco

Those 3 pitchers the Marlins got back are garbage. All 24-26 years old and 2 of them are relievers. Not one of them has a consistent track record. Not 1 of them is in the class of Robbie Ray.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would trade Ray, Krol and Lombardozzi for Fister without hesitation. I would not put Castellanos in the deal for Ray, because he's a better prospect from what I gather. If the Tigers feel as if Ray is equivalent to Castellanos though, then the steal starts to make sense.

I know you would trade ray. The argument seems to be that Ray is not enough, and the return should have been a better prospect. Ray is our second best prospect now, so the only hypothetical I could use would be castellanos.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I also think that the internet prospecting community is given way too much credit.

Possibly, but the good ones know a lot more than me. So, I listen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
#3 on the Tigers staff or #3 on a normal staff?

I see what you did there. But on the Tigers....DD talks about having (3) #1 SP. So if he views Ray as a #3.....then he is a clear notch below Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanchez.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two years of Doug Fister and a draft pick should have netted a second prospect. That's why I'm upset about the deal. I absolutely believe the Tigers needed to restock the system to replace the cheap cost controlled players that are now expensive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Possibly, but the good ones know a lot more than me. So, I listen.

I don't disagree, and it's better than nothing, but mlb front offices, and the tigers in particular, also know what they are doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't disagree, and it's better than nothing, but mlb front offices, and the tigers in particular, also know what they are doing.

All MLB front offices know what they're doing. The Tigers have a very good one in most facets, but I wouldn't say they are particularly good when it comes to prospects. I trust Dombrowski trading prospects for veterans (a strength of his) more than veterans for prospects.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The other factor here is that even if we assume for a second that the trade market for SP is much weaker this year than in the past (which I reject, given the dearth of quality FA starters), then we should have made a move last year instead. Fister with 3 years left would have been even more valuable, and we still had a ready replacement in hand with Smyly.

But this logic ignores that they didn't know that Procello would take the step he did last season - assuming anyone agrees he did. Still I don't think I've seen a lot of sentiment here that they should have traded RP instead...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The issue here isn't that we traded Fister, as regrettable as that may be. Or that we needed to cut some salary from the rotation, that generally makes sense, it's an awfully expensive rotation with Fister in it (and remains so with him gone).

We just didn't get enough talent in return. Plain and simple. And not only did we not get enough talent in return, we got even less in return on a payroll value basis. Because we didn't just trade Doug Fister and his top 10 fWAR over the last three years, we traded two years of control at roughly $17-19 million. On a payroll value basis, that is probably a nearly impossible deal to replicate because those players aren't available in trade -- namely becuase they provide so much value for each payroll dollar that they cannot be replaced. And they sure aren't available in the free agent market, not at that kind of cost, and without the longterm commitment.

You could have gotten the moon in return, and it probably still wouldn't have been a great trade. But suffice to say, a LOOGY, utility fielder, and a decent SP prospect falls way short. Frankly, we needed another 2-3 decent prospects to make this work, if the goal was to rebuild our system depth. I would have still not liked the trade, but I would have understood it.

The issue with all of these prospect package type trades, is that the odds that these guys pan out is relatively small. And given the players received, the only way that the Tigers can salvage this deal, is if Ray develops into a good mid-rotation starter. That may or may not happen, but the odds of it happening are small. Guys like Ray crash and burn all the time. This is why we needed another 2-3 prospects in this package, it mitigates the risk that you end up with nothing, while giving you more chances to develop contributors/value received in the deal. It just doesn't make sense to bank all the value received in this trade on Ray.

I guess some might say we got Krol too, but we could have just kept Downs and probably gotten equal production. He's a LOOGY, and frankly, could have a great career in that role and still wouldn't create enough value to change this trade in any meaningful way.

As far as the reason why we NEEDED to restock our club with a major league ready SP and a cost-controled LOOGY, look no further than three straight drafts that were complete ****. 2011 and 2012, to a lesser extend 2013, are comign back to haunt us now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All MLB front offices know what they're doing. The Tigers have a very good one in most facets, but I wouldn't say they are particularly good when it comes to prospects. I trust Dombrowski trading prospects for veterans (a strength of his) more than veterans for prospects.

If you trust him trading prospects, doesn't that mean that you trust his evaluation of prospects?

Seattle does not know what they are doing. KC probably doesn't either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why spend time reading the scouting reports when I can just wait for you guys to repeat them?

Good point. It is literally impossible to judge a trade involving prospects. In my opinion, Ray is probably the greatest pitcher of all time, automatically making this one of the most amazing trades in the history of baseball. As we only have scouting reports to rely on, and thus are incapable of forming rational opinions, there's no way to discount that possibility!

Do you honestly think people are just mindlessly parroting scouting reports? Do you even need a scouting report to think that trading Doug Fister for a middling prospect, a reliever, and a bad utility man is a bad thing? Or is it simply that no one on this forum is ever allowed to reach their own opinion (that happens to be shared by nearly everyone in baseball) about a prospect?

And just to cut it off at the pass, if the Tigers sign someone else "with this money", it doesn't make this trade any better. That is not how things work at all. Especially when they just supposedly saved far more money by trading away Fielder. If you have to trade a fairly cheap starter for nothing to free up the money to sign a 40+ year old closer, that's not a positive for your job as a GM.

I guess I have to say I'm surprised that people are criticizing the fact that a major piece in the deal won't help in 2014.

They turned a 2014 surplus into a 2015+ asset. That's not a bad thing.

Well, there's your problem. I don't consider one of the better starting pitchers in the league 'a 2014 surplus' for a team that's supposedly trying to win the world series now.

The moves they're making this offseason so far sure don't support that.

And why are you comparing Fister to Nolasco? Nolasco is a bad pitcher, Fister is a good pitcher. That's why Fister is more valuable. Not because of contracts.

Then I would submit you are highly overestimating fister's market.

Let's say smyly breaks his arm this afternoon.

Would you trade castellanos, krol, and lombardozzi back to Washington for fister?

Or would you just sign ubaldo to 4/48 or Ervin Santana at 3/39?

Well here's the problem, you're seriously undervaluing the worth of starting pitchers right now. Ervin Santana wants 5/100, not 3//39. He might even get something close to that. Phil Hughes, statistically one of the worst starting pitchers in the league over his career just got 3/24. Jason Vargas got 4/32.

If this was so simple, why did they have to trade for Krol and Lombardozzi, they could have just signed any reliever and utility man. Oh, wait. That one is actually true, because pure LOOGY's and bad utility men really are valueless. Oops.

Edited by pyrotigers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
All MLB front offices know what they're doing. The Tigers have a very good one in most facets, but I wouldn't say they are particularly good when it comes to prospects. I trust Dombrowski trading prospects for veterans (a strength of his) more than veterans for prospects.

When it comes to pitching at least he has been pretty good at not overvaluing the prospects in his own system, selling high on a good number of them that turned out to be less than the conventional wisdom thought of them - so with pitching prospects I'd say he has had a pretty good eye, at least on the downside. I don't know if that translates to the upside evaluation or not. He decided he liked Scherzer better than Edwin Jackson when that was certainly not a universal opinion.

Edited by Gehringer_2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ricky Nolasco

Those 3 pitchers the Marlins got back are garbage. All 24-26 years old and 2 of them are relievers. Not one of them has a consistent track record. Not 1 of them is in the class of Robbie Ray.

The class of Ray? Fringe to back of the rotation SP isn't exactly setting the bar high. Sanchez is clearly in the class of Ray, maybe a year to year and a half behind in development. Ames and Wall are two major-league ready bullpen contributors. Ames looks to be a potential back of bullpen guy.

Even if one likes the Ray package better, it doesn't account for the season and a half difference in control between Fister and Nolasco.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So after sleeping on it, I still really ****ing hate this trade. Makes me sick to my stomach to dump great players like that.

Oh, and I just read a tweet where an AL scout said that Porcello wouldn't have gotten Ray straight up. So there are three options as to what that means:

A) This scout is an idiot

B) Porcello actually sucks and his great peripherals last year mean nothing

C) Ray is an absolute stud and is vastly underrated on the Internet

Something tells me it's probably not option C

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When it comes to pitching at least he has been pretty good at not overvaluing the prospects in his own system, selling high on a good number of them that turned out to be less than the conventional wisdom though of them - so with pitching prospects I'd say he has had a pretty good eye, at least on the downside. I don't know if that translates to the upside evaluation or not. He decided he liked Scherzer better than Edwin Jackson when that was certainly not a universal opinion.

I think that is revisionist. And we don't know if DD hasn't overvalued his own prospects or not. It could simply be a situation where he needed parts to win now, and he dealt these guys regardless of how he valued them.

As far as Scherzer vs Jackson, that wasn't the trade. And I think that payroll considerations and getting cost controlled players were a large part of that deal, moreso than an analysis of Scherzer vs Jackson. Some of the same considerations that probably went into the Fister trade. I certainly wouldn't look back on this trade later and say that DD decided he liked Ray better than Fister.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only part that's upsetting about this to me is potentially/probably not trading Scherzer. I have to downgrade the offseason at least a little bit for that alone, almost regardless of the rest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you trust him trading prospects, doesn't that mean that you trust his evaluation of prospects?

.

The Tigers haven't had a lot of prospects I worried about them trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there any indication that MLB GMs as opposed to "internet scouts" had any higher opinion of Ray? I haven't seen it, and their are plenty of well connected reporters who would tell us if that was the case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Michigan Sports Betting Offer

Michigan launched online sports betting and casino apps on Friday, January 22, 2021. We have selected the top Michigan sportsbooks and casinos that offer excellent bonus offers. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers Michigan - Get a 100% up to $250 deposit bonus at their online sportsbook & casino.

Click Here to claim $250 deposit bonus at BetRivers Michigan For Signing Up Now

FanDuel Michigan - Get a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel Michigan on your first bet.

Click Here to claim $1,000 Risk-Free Bet at FanDuel Michigan

BetMGM Michigan - Get a $600 risk-free bet at the BetMGM online casino & sportsbook

Click Here to claim $600 risk-free bet at BetMGM Michigan

   


×
×
  • Create New...