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Doug Fister Traded to the Nationals

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If you haven't noticed, I am a big fan of knee-jerk reactions. By the next day I settle right down.

haha, to be honest I just wanted to bring up Milt Pappas, Jack Baldschun and Dick Simpson!

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The return for fister was more than fair, and was exactly the type of trade the tigers needed to make if they want to remain competitive in the coming years.

This is probably right assuming Ray develops into at least a #4 SP. and the Tigers use the money saved from Fister's current and future contracts on productive parts.

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haha, to be honest I just wanted to bring up Milt Pappas, Jack Baldschun and Dick Simpson!

My dad knew Milt Pappas somewhat and thought he was an insufferable ***.

And yes, that was an unbelievably horrible trade.

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That is the optimistic way to look at this deal. If they think they can fill their holes with cash then this deal gets Smyly into the rotation while netting a prospect in exchange for a small dip in overall team strength that they can throw money at to fix relatively easily.

Why not be optimistic?

The world is a great place.

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Any team looking at fister could also address their need for a SP through free agency. There are a good number of free agent starters that are comparable to fister. Maybe not quite as good, but comparable.

Nolasco signed for 4/49.

Obviously, fister is on a better contract, but how much better, really?

The difference between the two is covered by the value of the players that Washington gave up.

Seriously? You really think Ricky Nolasco and Doug Fister are roughly analogous pitchers? Over the last three years Fister has been one of the top 10-15 most productive pitchers in the game. Nolasco would be lucky to fall in the top 50. As but one short-hand measure, Nolasco's been worth 8.5 wins over the last 3 years, Fister 12.4.

If you are starting from the assumption that Nolasco effectively equals Fister, then perhaps this deal is fair value. But I submit that that is woefully overestimating Nolasco, or selling Fister very short.

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The other factor here is that even if we assume for a second that the trade market for SP is much weaker this year than in the past (which I reject, given the dearth of quality FA starters), then we should have made a move last year instead. Fister with 3 years left would have been even more valuable, and we still had a ready replacement in hand with Smyly.

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I'm going there.

This thread is a lot like Jesus walking out on the stormy Sea of Galilee, Peter gets out and starts to walk on the water...then, Peter is like all "...all we got was Steve Lombardozzi and some scrub LHP?"

You people are not worthy

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Maybe. Prospects aren't sure things. We turned a known asset into a big old maybe asset.

Major leaguers aren't sure things, either. They are much more reliable, that's true.

The fact that prospects aren't sure things is exactly the reason that you need to have as many as you can.

The tigers have made multiple trades of prospects for major leaguers. They needed to replenish.

Having Ray means that maybe they can trade Crawford or verhagen or whatever for a major league piece down the road.

Ray is a maybe, just like every prospect. Doesn't mean that he doesn't carry value.

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No one is denying that prospects have value, or that we have a depleted farm system. The question is whether Ray is sufficient return for Fister (Krol could easily and cheaply be replaced on the FA or trade market, while Lombo has little value). I don't see how a potential #3 or 4 starter is fair return for two arbitration years of an established top-flight #3 starter.

Now if Ray projected as a #1 or #2, maybe it's a different story. But all reports indicate he's a 3 or 4. That simply isn't enough.

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So if I'm reading this correctly, the Tigers traded Doug Fister, a known commodity for Don Kelly, John Rocker and a future #4?

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Seriously? You really think Ricky Nolasco and Doug Fister are roughly analogous pitchers? Over the last three years Fister has been one of the top 10-15 most productive pitchers in the game. Nolasco would be lucky to fall in the top 50. As but one short-hand measure, Nolasco's been worth 8.5 wins over the last 3 years, Fister 12.4.

If you are starting from the assumption that Nolasco effectively equals Fister, then perhaps this deal is fair value. But I submit that that is woefully overestimating Nolasco, or selling Fister very short.

Relax, bro. It was the first example that came to mind.

Nolasco is not as good as fister, that's true. But I don't really give a **** about what his war was three years ago.

The point was that the difference in value is why justifies a team trading an asset for fister instead of simply signing a nolasco type. There is obviously a price that a team will not pay to acquire fister when they can get a 3ish win nolasco by just spending money.

No team was going to give up a top prospect for Doug fister. Not when he's in year 5 and 6 of his team control years.

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I guess I have to say I'm surprised that people are criticizing the fact that a major piece in the deal won't help in 2014.

They turned a 2014 surplus into a 2015+ asset. That's not a bad thing.

I think considering him a 2015 asset at this point is more of a hope than a reality (unless you are talking about trade value). He's not likely to pitch in the majors this year and he's not likely to be a guy we'd want in our rotation in 2015 either, even assuming he pans out and becomes a middle of the rotation guy.

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No team was going to give up a top prospect for Doug fister. Not when he's in year 5 and 6 of his team control years.

Then we shouldn't have traded him. You don't move assets for less than fair market value when you don't have to. We could have ridden one more year of Smyly in the pen, and had him ready to take over for Scherzer next year.

It's the same as why people don't think we should trade Scherzer. They'd rather take the remaining surplus value on his contract for 2014, than accept what they believe will be below-market value.

At the end of the day, it's all cost-benefit. With Fister, the benefit apparently didn't outweigh the cost of the move. Hence, it was a bad decision.

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No one is denying that prospects have value, or that we have a depleted farm system. The question is whether Ray is sufficient return for Fister (Krol could easily and cheaply be replaced on the FA or trade market, while Lombo has little value). I don't see how a potential #3 or 4 starter is fair return for two arbitration years of an established top-flight #3 starter.

Now if Ray projected as a #1 or #2, maybe it's a different story. But all reports indicate he's a 3 or 4. That simply isn't enough.

Then I would submit you are highly overestimating fister's market.

Let's say smyly breaks his arm this afternoon.

Would you trade castellanos, krol, and lombardozzi back to Washington for fister?

Or would you just sign ubaldo to 4/48 or Ervin Santana at 3/39?

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I think considering him a 2015 asset at this point is more of a hope than a reality (unless you are talking about trade value). He's not likely to pitch in the majors this year and he's not likely to be a guy we'd want in our rotation in 2015 either, even assuming he pans out and becomes a middle of the rotation guy.

2015, 2016, whatever. The point was that we shifted our surplus back a couple years.

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Then I would submit you are highly overestimating fister's market.

Let's say smyly breaks his arm this afternoon.

Would you trade castellanos, krol, and lombardozzi back to Washington for fister?

Or would you just sign ubaldo to 4/48 or Ervin Santana at 3/39?

Come on bro, even you know this is absurd. You aren't getting Ubaldo or Santana on either of those deals. Santana's looking for $100 million for crying out loud.

Your proposed Castellanos deal also isn't a valid comparison. Castellanos is a significantly better prospect than Ray. So even if I wouldn't trade Castellanos for Fister, that doesn't mean that Ray is sufficient value.

In short, I would trade Ray/Krol/Lombo back to the Nationals in a heartbeat, regardless of the condition of Smyly's arm.

Edited by Ron Burgandy

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If you are starting from the assumption that Nolasco effectively equals Fister, then perhaps this deal is fair value. But I submit that that is woefully overestimating Nolasco, or selling Fister very short.

There is a fair case to be made that the Marlins got more for 40% of a season of Nolasco than the Tigers got for two seasons of Fister.

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Seriously? You really think Ricky Nolasco and Doug Fister are roughly analogous pitchers? Over the last three years Fister has been one of the top 10-15 most productive pitchers in the game. Nolasco would be lucky to fall in the top 50. As but one short-hand measure, Nolasco's been worth 8.5 wins over the last 3 years, Fister 12.4.

If you are starting from the assumption that Nolasco effectively equals Fister, then perhaps this deal is fair value. But I submit that that is woefully overestimating Nolasco, or selling Fister very short.

And yet Nolasco is getting a ridiculous 4/$49 million contract. How much more will Fister get?

I see the value in the trade, and I accept that this was as good as DD could get for his surplus SP.

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The only way this deal makes sense to me is that the Tigers like Ray a whole lot better than the internet prospecting community does. Maybe they think he's better than a #3 or #4. That's certainly possible.

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Then I would submit you are highly overestimating fister's market.

Let's say smyly breaks his arm this afternoon.

Would you trade castellanos, krol, and lombardozzi back to Washington for fister?

Or would you just sign ubaldo to 4/48 or Ervin Santana at 3/39?

The Ubaldo Jiminez and Ervin Santana I know are going to get more than Ricky Nolasco did (4/$50). Ubaldo will end up at 5/$75 and Santana about the same.

I wouldn't trade Castellanos for Ray straight up. **** no. But I would trade Ray, Krol, and Lombardozzi back to Washington for Fister in a heart-beat. I am guessing 29 teams would do that based on the reaction around baseball today.

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so the position players are

2B - Kinsler - R

LF - Grandy or Choo - L

RF - Torii - R

1B - Miggy - R

DH - Victor - S

3B - Castellanos - R (or someone like Callaspo - S)

CF - Jackson - R

C - Avila - L

SS - Iglesias - R

With a bench of Holaday ®, Dirks (L), Lombardozzi (S), and Kelly (L) (or Worth if they want another player who can man SS)

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The only way this deal makes sense to me is that the Tigers like Ray a whole lot better than the internet prospecting community does. Maybe they think he's better than a #3 or #4. That's certainly possible.

The only problem is DD released last night they thought Ray was a potential #3. DD is good at keeping quiet. But when he talks he doesn't normally lie. So he views Ray as a #3.

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Would you trade castellanos, krol, and lombardozzi back to Washington for fister?

Or would you just sign ubaldo to 4/48 or Ervin Santana at 3/39?

I would trade Ray, Krol and Lombardozzi for Fister without hesitation. I would not put Castellanos in the deal for Ray, because he's a better prospect from what I gather. If the Tigers feel as if Ray is equivalent to Castellanos though, then the steal starts to make sense.

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