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JayVee

Prince Fielder Traded to Texas for Ian Kinsler

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Where does ****ing idiotic fall on this spectrum?

Asking for a friend.

I think it's least offensive somehow.

Least to most offensive:

****ing Idiotic

Insane

Silly

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I know this is a vast oversimplification, but by this metric, Kinsler was worth more than Prince and Infante combined last year.

Which is why some people do not need to obsess over 'metrics'. Because that comment is almost the definition of insane.

Infante and Kinsler are CLOSE to a wash...the above....smh

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That would be time consuming and foolhardy.

Trying to add anything to a study I did not do would be considered foolhardy and time consuming if said study had room for bias and or opinion in the findings or conclusions.

You are a smart dude. Not sure why you keep on with that.

We all know what OBP is we all know what SLG is...the difference we all also know. Apparently that is 'grossly'....something or another.

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Odds that JBK starts using "Dumbroswki" by March are now at 3-2.

Any takers?

My biggest Tiger-related pet peeve...(now that Jim Leyland is not around to call "Smokes")

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First of all, if Prince continues to hit like he did in 2013, it won't be all that hard to match his production.

Actually, it would be pretty difficult to replace. OPS+ 120. Power LHB's are hard to find. Down year, yes, but it wasn't nearly as bad at people are making it out to be. The effect is magnified due to his contract and because it was his career worst season. Napoli, who is probably the best comp to Fielder's 2013 season and an available FA, is likely going to have many suitors and require a substantial commitment. These guys don't grow on trees.

Second, we could have your exact same argument regarding 2B if we didn't fill the hole with Kinsler. Aside from Cano, how many 2B available on the free agent market were going to replace what Infante gave us last year? Even Infante himself was unlikely to, and was/is going to be overpaid.

What makes Kinsler likely to replace Infante's 2013 production? He hasn't played at that level in a couple of years. I wasn't a fan of re-signing Infante because I thought the contract would outweight expected contribution for the next three years (or whatever the contract length). I'd say the exact same thing about Kinsler, he's no $15-16 million player. He's an average 2B who is headed into his mid-30's. He hasn't had a season to get excited about in several years.

Your prediction track record is pretty brutal. Two off seasons ago you said Beltran would get a huge FA contract. He got 2/$26. Earlier this off-season you said there was little chance we'd trade Fielder (let alone for Kinsler). We did. Your surety that there is no way we can replace Fielder's production will likely turn out the same.

I don't think you can replace Fielder's production on a net-zero cash basis. We saved $8MM in 2014 and 2015. Doubtful we can find a guy to replace him for that. Mostly because we are now overpaying for mediocrity at 2B.

Moreover, I don't agree with these views that Fielder is his 2013 version. He was a 151 OPS+ guy in 2012. We don't know that he'll ever go back to that, but one down season doesn't make a career cliff. I think there is a much bigger chance that Prince rebounds than seeing Kinsler rebound to his 2008 or 2011 seasons.

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Why don't you define what Cabrera's performance level needs to be at in 2014 for you to be dissuaded of idea that Fielder protected Cabrera?

I also have to add that Fielder wasn't even that good in 2013. The idea Fielder protected Cabrera doesn't even seem to hold water when looking at it comparing 2011 to 2012 to 2013.

Very good!

With V-Mart batting behind Cabrera, I would expect Cabrera to easily get over 100 walks for 2014. I would also expect to see Cabrera's RBI's and home run totals drop off significantly. On the plus side I expect Cabrera to score a few more runs (say 10-15) than he has in 2012 or 2013.

For 2013 and 2012, Cabrera hit 44 home runs and 137 and 139 RBI's (Cabrera was on pace for 51 HR's and 150 RBI's in 2013 I believe based on what he did before he was injured in the month of September for 2012).

I would fully expect Cabrera to hit closer to low to mid 30 HR's instead of 40-50 and I also expect Cabrera's RBI totals will also drop from the mid 130's to closer to the 100's with V-Mart behind him instead of Fielder.

For 2014, pitchers that fall behind Cabrera will simply ball 4 Cabrera and see if V-Mart can drive in Cabrera from 1B most of the year.

Don't get me wrong, 100 RBI's and 30 HR's is not abject failure for Cabrera. However this is not the 44 HR's or that 50+HR's 130-140 RBI's that might have been if Cabrera was healthy all 2013.

Now in fairness, if the Tigers can get another home run threat behind Cabrera, this will all change. But I really think 2014 pitchers will significantly alter their approach to pitching to Cabrera (with Martinez batting behind Cabrera) because Martinez lacks a lot of home run power (Austin Jackson had 12 home runs, V-Mart 14 for 2014) and Cabrera isn't going to be scoring from 1B on a base hit with 2 outs and I question how often Cabrera would get the green light to try and score from 1B with two out and V-Mart coming through with a double.

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Trying to add anything to a study I did not do would be considered foolhardy and time consuming if said study had room for bias and or opinion in the findings or conclusions.

Nobody said you had to add anything to the study. Just understand the point of it so you don't end up saying stupid stuff like: "The idea that a BB or a HPB is better than a triple or a HR makes me feel like I am living in fantasy land."

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Disclaimer...I do not pretend to get sabermetrics and all the WAR stuff. Im an old timer who understads avg/hr/rbi/sb...

Given that Protection of Cabrera seems to be a discussion. Last 3y stats for Miggy show:

2011: 108 BB, 22 IBB

2012: 66, 17

2013: 90, 19

So Fielder did have an immediate impact on protection in '12. But...it waned greatly in '13. Seems teams figured out that Prince was not the threat in '13 he was in '12. Even with VMart batting behind him.

Telling also is that Prince was only IBB 5x last year. Rather pitch to him than Martinez?

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Very good!

With V-Mart batting behind Cabrera, I would expect Cabrera to easily get over 100 walks for 2014. I would also expect to see Cabrera's RBI's and home run totals drop off significantly. On the plus side I expect Cabrera to score a few more runs (say 10-15) than he has in 2012 or 2013.

For 2013 and 2012, Cabrera hit 44 home runs and 137 and 139 RBI's (Cabrera was on pace for 51 HR's and 150 RBI's in 2013 I believe based on what he did before he was injured in the month of September for 2012).

I would fully expect Cabrera to hit closer to low to mid 30 HR's instead of 40-50 and I also expect Cabrera's RBI totals will also drop from the mid 130's to closer to the 100's with V-Mart behind him instead of Fielder.

For 2014, pitchers that fall behind Cabrera will simply ball 4 Cabrera and see if V-Mart can drive in Cabrera from 1B most of the year.

Don't get me wrong, 100 RBI's and 30 HR's is not abject failure for Cabrera. However this is not the 44 HR's or that 50+HR's 130-140 RBI's that might have been if Cabrera was healthy all 2013.

Now in fairness, if the Tigers can get another home run threat behind Cabrera, this will all change. But I really think 2014 pitchers will significantly alter their approach to pitching to Cabrera (with Martinez batting behind Cabrera) because Martinez lacks a lot of home run power (Austin Jackson had 12 home runs, V-Mart 14 for 2014) and Cabrera isn't going to be scoring from 1B on a base hit with 2 outs and I question how often Cabrera would get the green light to try and score from 1B with two out and V-Mart coming through with a double.

Or maybe it has nothing to do with who is hitting behind Cabrera because he is a really good hitter. The idea Cabrera hit better in 2013 despite Fielder having a poor hitting season relative to 2012 doesn't make much sense if batter protection is so critical.

I also don't get why we are evaluating how effective Cabrera is only using Triple Crown stats. It is possible he is as effective next year by hitting fewer HR but netting far more walks.

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Or maybe it has nothing to do with who is hitting behind Cabrera because he is a really good hitter. The idea Cabrera hit better in 2013 despite Fielder having a poor hitting season relative to 2012 doesn't make much sense if batter protection is so critical.

I also don't get why we are evaluating how effective Cabrera is only using Triple Crown stats. It is possible he is as effective next year by hitting fewer HR but netting far more walks.

LMAO this is silly insanity and frankly, ****ing idiotic.

Edited by lesgoblu02

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Hey...where the **** is Walt, anyway?

He was last seen making a trip to the dumpster with an arm full of Prince Fielder posters.

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Why does the replacement player have to be LH?

He doesn't, but it would be nice. Regardless, it doesn't change the point I made.

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I would love to read some of those. Really I would. The idea that a BB or a HPB is better than a triple or a HR makes me feel like I am living in fantasy land.

Triples and homeruns count in the OBP side of the equation as well as the SLG side. BB and HBP are not included in the SLG side. It simply isn't correct that the formula 1.7 * OBP + SLG claims that a BB or HBP is better than a Triple or HR (or any other kind of base hit).

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My biggest Tiger-related pet peeve...(now that Jim Leyland is not around to call "Smokes")

"Dumbrowski"...yeah that is cute....not really. I would never use the word.

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He doesn't, but it would be nice. Regardless, it doesn't change the point I made.

That there aren't many 120 OPS+ players on the market?

Choo, Napoli, Cruz (am I missing any?)

I suppose that is pretty typical in any free agent class - there aren't that many guys posting a OPS+ of 120.

I think the point being made was a 1B with equivalent value to one posting a 120 OPS+ with poor defense isn't that hard to acquire via trade.

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He doesn't, but it would be nice. Regardless, it doesn't change the point I made.

Agreed. Somewhere early in this thread somebody posted that those that don't like this trade are way overvaluing the hitter that Prince Fielder is because of his name.

I think a lot of those that are thrilled with the trade are way undervaluing the hitter he is because of how he played in the postseason and because he underperformed his salary.

He was still a big bat in the lineup. He still was a very effective offensive player. And this was during his absolute WORST season of his career. Now perhaps that season is the first step in a downward spiral that leads to him being a total crap waste of space in 3 years. I think it's far more likely, however, that it was simply a down year and he bounces back and again becomes a damn good hitter for the next 3-4 years at the least. He may never OPS 1.000 again, but I wouldn't at all be shocked to see him have a couple of .900 OPS seasons in his bat down the road. And that is FAR greater than any value Kinsler is going to give us.

Unlike Fielder, Kinsler has a multiple year history of decline, and has a career history of being a subpar player anywhere outside of Arlington, TX.

If people want to love on the trade for the financial flexibility and the $75 million savings over the next 7 years, that's great. But anybody trying to say that this isn't a huge net negative move on the baseball diamond is really fooling themselves, IMO. The dollars are the ONLY reason this trade makes sense on any level.

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Very good!

With V-Mart batting behind Cabrera, I would expect Cabrera to easily get over 100 walks for 2014. I would also expect to see Cabrera's RBI's and home run totals drop off significantly. On the plus side I expect Cabrera to score a few more runs (say 10-15) than he has in 2012 or 2013.

For 2013 and 2012, Cabrera hit 44 home runs and 137 and 139 RBI's (Cabrera was on pace for 51 HR's and 150 RBI's in 2013 I believe based on what he did before he was injured in the month of September for 2012).

I would fully expect Cabrera to hit closer to low to mid 30 HR's instead of 40-50 and I also expect Cabrera's RBI totals will also drop from the mid 130's to closer to the 100's with V-Mart behind him instead of Fielder.

For 2014, pitchers that fall behind Cabrera will simply ball 4 Cabrera and see if V-Mart can drive in Cabrera from 1B most of the year.

Don't get me wrong, 100 RBI's and 30 HR's is not abject failure for Cabrera. However this is not the 44 HR's or that 50+HR's 130-140 RBI's that might have been if Cabrera was healthy all 2013.

Now in fairness, if the Tigers can get another home run threat behind Cabrera, this will all change. But I really think 2014 pitchers will significantly alter their approach to pitching to Cabrera (with Martinez batting behind Cabrera) because Martinez lacks a lot of home run power (Austin Jackson had 12 home runs, V-Mart 14 for 2014) and Cabrera isn't going to be scoring from 1B on a base hit with 2 outs and I question how often Cabrera would get the green light to try and score from 1B with two out and V-Mart coming through with a double.

That all sounds about right IMO. It really depends on how Victor STARTS the year. If he starts like last year...those numbers may be lower for Miggy. If he starts like he finished last year...I can see roughly the same level from Miggy as last year.

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