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Jeff6851

2013-14 Offseason Thread

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Balfour signs for 2/14. Benoit's price may come down to what he was making last year.

I'm still hoping the Tigers manage to sign Benoit. I'm pretty satisfied with the rest of the team, but still would like them to add another good reliever.

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Re-signing Benoit would be an amazing move at this point. I'm content with our pen, but I'd consider it a huge strength with Benoit added in. That would basically replace Smyly, with Benoit being upgraded by Nathan and the rest of the pen arguably being upgraded as well.

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I don't think Benoit is coming back, the Padres reportedly were close to signing him a couple days ago. I don't know why it still hasn't gotten done yet but I assume it will at some point.

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I'm still hoping the Tigers manage to sign Benoit. I'm pretty satisfied with the rest of the team, but still would like them to add another good reliever.

Absolutely. If we had Benoit I'd feel great about next season. Would potentially be the strongest bullpen Detroit's had in a long while.

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Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 1h

I'd rather have Benoit, Balfour, Joe Smith, and Ruggiano over Nathan, Davis, and Joba. Just saying.

This is a good point

Nathan/Davis/Joba: 17.5m + 500k in potential bonuses

Smith/Balfour/Ruggiano: 14.25m

Then add in Benoit for 7-8/mil a season and you have an elite bullpen and the same production in LF for only an extra couple million.

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Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 1h

I'd rather have Benoit, Balfour, Joe Smith, and Ruggiano over Nathan, Davis, and Joba. Just saying.

I wouldn't, Ruggiano isn't good. Nathan is better than Benoit and Davis brings lots of speed and a good bat against lefties. Joba will probably have a come back year, 2 years removed from surgery, roughly, is when things start to even out.

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Ruggiano wasn't a free agent, though. He was traded for a 4th OF- that would be like the Tigers parting with Dirks. Given what he was traded for, he was not a realistic target.

I'm also not sure if you can just sign any reliever you want. It's possible, if not likely, that both Benoit and Balfour are going to be closers next year so they could both have been looking for that role. If that's the case, you can't really sign both of them. If you somehow did, why would Smith want to be pitching in the 7th inning/ lower leverage situations when he'll have a better role and more opportunity on another team?

Role and fit and opportunity matter if money is similar. That's why teams can't just sign whoever they want and saying a team should have just done X instead of Y is usually far too simplistic of an exercise and not realistic. Maybe they shouldn't have traded Fielder or parted with Fister. Those are debatable b/c they have direct control over the situation. But, when some commentator starts suggesting they should sign 3 high leverage relievers or trade for an OF when there are a ton of other variables involved, then you are going down a slippery slope in actually analyzing a team's off season. There are way too many hypothetical situations and unknowns and most arguments end up becoming some sort of fallacy by that point.

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Yeah, I really like the Joba signing. That should have been done regardless. I do wish we had one more reliable guy.....Benoit would be awesome.

I can see why they wouldn't want to dole out the cash tho. If they believe in Rondon and Joba though medical/scouting, then Nathan/Rondon/Joba would be one heck of 7/8/9 combo.

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I wouldn't, Ruggiano isn't good. Nathan is better than Benoit and Davis brings lots of speed and a good bat against lefties. Joba will probably have a come back year, 2 years removed from surgery, roughly, is when things start to even out.

834 OPS career against lefties, much better defensively than Davis, and still has speed. Might wanna check that again.

Ruggiano wasn't a free agent, though. He was traded for a 4th OF- that would be like the Tigers parting with Dirks. Given what he was traded for, he was not a realistic target.

I'm also not sure if you can just sign any reliever you want. It's possible, if not likely, that both Benoit and Balfour are going to be closers next year so they could both have been looking for that role. If that's the case, you can't really sign both of them. If you somehow did, why would Smith want to be pitching in the 7th inning/ lower leverage situations when he'll have a better role and more opportunity on another team?

Role and fit and opportunity matter if money is similar. That's why teams can't just sign whoever they want and saying a team should have just done X instead of Y is usually far too simplistic of an exercise and not realistic. Maybe they shouldn't have traded Fielder or parted with Fister. Those are debatable b/c they have direct control over the situation. But, when some commentator starts suggesting they should sign 3 high leverage relievers or trade for an OF when there are a ton of other variables involved, then you are going down a slippery slope in actually analyzing a team's off season. There are way too many hypothetical situations and unknowns and most arguments end up becoming some sort of fallacy by that point.

They traded Brian Bogusevic for him, I'm sure the Tigers could've found someone to toss their way that isn't Dirks. Even if it takes a decent prospect, oh well.

I don't see why it matters to Smith or Benoit what their roles are if they're getting paid a lot of money and get to pitch for a championship contender. The 7th inning is important. Brian Wilson who seems to have one of the biggest egos in sports just signed a deal to not close. Smith mainly pitched the 7th inning for the Indians last year (at least I think I did with Allen in the 8th and Perez in the 9th).

Benoit might find a closer job and if he does then I can understand him not wanting to sign here, but if he doesn't find one, I'm sure he'd probably rather play for the Tigers and make the same amount of money than play for another team he's less familiar with and probably worse.

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834 OPS career against lefties, much better defensively than Davis, and still has speed. Might wanna check that again.

But that's not the only element we are talking about. It isn't just Davis for Ruggiano. To me Nathan, Joba and Davis is clearly better than Rugganio, Benoit and Smith. I wouldn't make that swap.

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But that's not the only element we are talking about. It isn't just Davis for Ruggiano. To me Nathan, Joba and Davis is clearly better than Rugganio, Benoit and Smith. I wouldn't make that swap.

Assuming Benoit signs for 8m the swap is Ruggiano/Benoit/Balfour/Smith for Joba/Nathan/Davis/minor prospect/4m savings on the payroll

If you would rather have the second of those packages then fine, there's no clear right answer, I'd much rather have the first one myself though, I like that LF platoon much more and you have 4 really good relievers in Rondon/Benoit/Balfour/Smith, and only Rondon is a question mark out of those guys.

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I would rather have the Benoit/Balfour/Smith/Ruggiano group too but I agree with Scottwood that it probably wasn't possible. Right now, I see it as Nathan and a bunch of question marks and Nathan is 39 with which makes him somewhat of a risk himself. Rondon and Alburquerque have high upside, but also fairly high injury risks. I see Chamberlain as a project. He might end up really good, but I'm not expecting much and I was surprised that he cost as much as he did. I definitely would like to see them add another reliable arm.

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I would rather have the Benoit/Balfour/Smith/Ruggiano group too but I agree with Scottwood that it probably wasn't possible. Right now, I see it as Nathan and a bunch of question marks and Nathan is 39 with which makes him somewhat of a risk himself. Rondon and Alburquerque have high upside, but also fairly high injury risks. I see Chamberlain as a project. He might end up really good, but I'm not expecting much and I was surprised that he cost as much as he did. I definitely would like to see them add another reliable arm.

I'm thinking the Tigs are counting on more from Putkonen this year than we would.

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I'm thinking the Tigs are counting on more from Putkonen this year than we would.

I'm thinking they are counting on few guys more than I would.

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Assuming Benoit signs for 8m the swap is Ruggiano/Benoit/Balfour/Smith for Joba/Nathan/Davis/minor prospect/4m savings on the payroll

If you would rather have the second of those packages then fine, there's no clear right answer, I'd much rather have the first one myself though, I like that LF platoon much more and you have 4 really good relievers in Rondon/Benoit/Balfour/Smith, and only Rondon is a question mark out of those guys.

The overall money tho is probably over a $15M difference tho. So in theory they could still sign Benoit and be even up on money in this theoretical swap.

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I'm thinking they are counting on few guys more than I would.

His improvement in '13 was pretty nice. His peripheral stats aren't bad - if he does have just a little more upside to go in him he could be a sleeper candidate for a bigger role in ST. Though you have to wonder - he's not that young to expect much change - though I guess his 'clock' can be considered set back by injuries.

In any case - he's one guy we don't talk about much.

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I'm thinking you guys are overrating reliever value.

I don't think anybody has found a really reliable way to rate reliever value, but I think that modern analysts tend to underrate it.

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I'll take the group we signed fwiw. Its a lot less resources used and I like adding Davis' speed. Ruggiano isn't slow, but he isn't a difference maker as a base stealer or anything.

As for the rest, I simply believe in Nathan as my most important high leverage reliever more than I do Benoit and thats a big part of it. Numbers don't necessarily support this, but I think Nathan is an elite closer and you don't find many of those. Balfour seems to be falling off and I don't really believe in him and I think Joba and Joe Smith are a coin flip. For the difference in money, its a no brainer.

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I'll take the group we signed fwiw. Its a lot less resources used and I like adding Davis' speed. Ruggiano isn't slow, but he isn't a difference maker as a base stealer or anything.

As for the rest, I simply believe in Nathan as my most important high leverage reliever more than I do Benoit and thats a big part of it. Numbers don't necessarily support this, but I think Nathan is an elite closer and you don't find many of those. Balfour seems to be falling off and I don't really believe in him and I think Joba and Joe Smith are a coin flip. For the difference in money, its a no brainer.

What's your evidence for Balfour falling off? And how is Joba and Smith a coin flip? In no way is that a coin flip.

It's not a no-brainer.

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What's your evidence for Balfour falling off? And how is Joba and Smith a coin flip? In no way is that a coin flip.

It's not a no-brainer.

I don't know if declining was fair. I thought his velocity was dropping and it really isn't. I'll give you that. I have always found him overrated though. His peripherals aren't great and he's a flyball guy who has benefitted from being in Oakland IMO

Joba and Smith have basically the same Steamer projection for next year and I think Joba has more upside. I don't particularly love Smith as a high leverage guy. If I had him on a rookie deal, as my 6th/7th inning guy, I'd feel differently. He's a bit low on Ks and high on BBs for my liking. Joba still throws 95 and had decent numbers away from Yankee Stadium. He should be all the way healed from his surgeries next year as well.

My biggest issues with the two scenarios are Benoit/Balfour signing to not close(whether it makes sense or not, its a factor in real life), losing out on Davis' speed and assuming that we would have been able to spend another 4 million this year and 15 million total on the bullpen. If we have it, its another issue. I'd prefer Crain to be part of the scenario if we were going to switch things up.

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