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Jeff6851

2013-14 Offseason Thread

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Uh oh someone went for realzies

Not really.

Just remembering that no matter how stubborn some people can be, you shouldn't call them dense.

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Not really.

Just remembering that no matter how stubborn some people can be, you shouldn't call them dense.

You're being so impenetrable right now!

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Not really.

Just remembering that no matter how stubborn some people can be, you shouldn't call them dense.

You should instead note that their observed mass to volume ratio appears to be well above the normal range.

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Not really.

Just remembering that no matter how stubborn some people can be, you shouldn't call them dense.

But can we call them obtuse?? :ponder:

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I could see the contact rate correlation being fleeting, but power pitching is a pretty well established formula for post-season success. And contact rate would seemingly provide one of the most effective means of counteracting power pitching...

Power pitching is a pretty well established formula for success in baseball. I haven't seen anything that suggests it is more successful in the playoffs than the regular season though.

Contact rate might be a counter to power pitching, but home run power might also, since the few times you hit the ball it is nice if the ball goes out of the park.

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Any-hoo, it looks like the Tigers are moving closer to signing Joba Chamberlain...

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 1m

Sources: #Tigers to sign Joba Chamberlain.

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Man I can't make jokes with this stuff, Couga just went all Sarah McLachlan with this thread

Well, if you would stop being so opaque...

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Any-hoo, it looks like the Tigers are moving closer to signing Joba Chamberlain...

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 1m

Sources: #Tigers to sign Joba Chamberlain.

Ugg.

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I'm cool with Joba. Classic DD reliever in a way. i like the upside, but recognize the downside. There are least 4 pitchers in our pen that you fear to some degree and I also like that.

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Joba seems as good of a reclamation project as any.

I do hope that he's better another year removed from surgery, last year just wasn't very good.

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Have to see the terms to decide. He's okay, but as others say I def. wouldn't have spent more than it would have cost to keep Veras.

EDIT: 1 year, $2.5 M with incentives. meh.

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Just to be clear, I get that there is a high degree of luck involved in short playoff series. I don't believe the best team always wins. But to suggest that Oakland and Minnesota are 1-10 in playoff series over the last 13 years (with the only win being head-to-head) is explainable simply through bad luck just isn't credible. There is more going on there. To say that the playoffs are a crap shoot is a cop-out, one that largely took root in Moneyball as an excuse to explain why the A's hadn't had more postseason success.

It's easy to say there is more going on there. In the six 5 game series the "moneyball" A's have lost (all of those series against non-Twins teams) they are 12-18. They've lost every single one in 5 games. A team predicted to go .500 (assumes the A's and their opponents are roughly equivalent in the playoffs) going 12-18 is well within any expected error for a purely random result. And counting a team that loses 3-2 as the same as a team that loses 3-0 (which is what the "contact rate" model does) masks much of the randomness that is occurring in a short series.

It seems like teams with great bullpens and an unbalanced starting rotation skewed to the top 2 or 3 would be better in a short series than over 162 games. But it's hard for a team to get through 162 games without having a good roster so it is going to be very difficult to detect that kind of effect.

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Have to see the terms to decide. He's okay, but as others say I def. wouldn't have spent more than it would have cost to keep Veras.

EDIT: 1 year, $2.5 M with incentives. meh.

Veras would have cost 4 million.

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Veras would have cost 4 million.

It would be nice to have both. I really liked Veras...can't see why he's not worth 1-year, 4MM.

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