Jump to content

Jeff6851

2013-14 Offseason Thread

Recommended Posts


Well, now that I see how this works, I plan to start every new post with "Argument over."

That way I know I win everything, always. Kindergarten is fun.

I know! Just think of how much time we'll save talking about economics in the political forum!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not to people I considered friends. I am not sure if I have ever called someone stupid in RL....I have THOUGHT it about many people...not many of those people were friends if any, but never called them that. I think I may have done it here a couple times. I am sure I apologized after the fact though.

You want to call that 'moral superiority' that is on you. I call it common courtesy.

"Stupid" was a poor choice of words. His response was clearly illogical, but I nevertheless should have taken the higher road. That having been said, I wouldn't consider him a "friend," so I'm not sure how you and I are any different.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It will be interesting to see if this trend holds going forward. If I had to guess it won't (it was only 4-3 in 2013, according to the article). Often models that work well looking backward fail when applied looking forward. Looking at series wins rather than pure win-loss record seems like a poor choice as well. What happens if you change the end points to 2010 or 2008?

Bill James looked at this in the 80's and thought he found a formula. He publicized it and it proceeded to miss every series the following year and never held up over any period of time after he published the results.

I could see the contact rate correlation being fleeting, but power pitching is a pretty well established formula for post-season success. And contact rate would seemingly provide one of the most effective means of counteracting power pitching...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know Walt isn't or else his reply would be in a thread from 2003.

Zing!

edit - G2 beat me to it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to be clear, I get that there is a high degree of luck involved in short playoff series. I don't believe the best team always wins. But to suggest that Oakland and Minnesota are 1-10 in playoff series over the last 13 years (with the only win being head-to-head) is explainable simply through bad luck just isn't credible. There is more going on there. To say that the playoffs are a crap shoot is a cop-out, one that largely took root in Moneyball as an excuse to explain why the A's hadn't had more postseason success.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"Stupid" was a poor choice of words. His response was clearly illogical, but I nevertheless should have taken the higher road. That having been said, I wouldn't consider him a "friend," so I'm not sure how you and I are any different.

He countered your personal insult with a personal insult of his own, declaring that you are not a good guy. This makes him superior to you. Didn't you read the MB rules?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think a team that has a couple of very good pitchers (Whether they be power pitchers or not) has an extra advantage in post-season relative to the regular season due to all the days off. The majority of great pitchers seem to be power pitchers now, but I don't know if being a power pitcher helps more in the playoffs than the regular season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
He countered your personal insult with a personal insult of his own, declaring that you are not a good guy. This makes him superior to you. Didn't you read the MB rules?

Who did I insult? What the heck are you talking about?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just to be clear, I get that there is a high degree of luck involved in short playoff series. I don't believe the best team always wins. But to suggest that Oakland and Minnesota are 1-10 in playoff series over the last 13 years (with the only win being head-to-head) is explainable simply through bad luck just isn't credible. There is more going on there. To say that the playoffs are a crap shoot is a cop-out, one that largely took root in Moneyball as an excuse to explain why the A's hadn't had more postseason success.

IDK about Oakland. Maybe part of the issue there is that Oakland pitching always looks better than it is because of the ballpark. In Minnesota's case there has been a competing 'traditional' explanation for their failure and that was a low power pitching staff. Not enough K's, not enough power FBs, too much control/finesse for when the weather is worse and the hitters are better 1-9. So contact ratio is not the only possibility there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just to be clear, I get that there is a high degree of luck involved in short playoff series. I don't believe the best team always wins. But to suggest that Oakland and Minnesota are 1-10 in playoff series over the last 13 years (with the only win being head-to-head) is explainable simply through bad luck just isn't credible. There is more going on there. To say that the playoffs are a crap shoot is a cop-out, one that largely took root in Moneyball as an excuse to explain why the A's hadn't had more postseason success.

Oakland has lost all six divisional series 3 games to 2 which seems kind of fluky to me. They've also had different types of teams over the period ranging from 713 runs score to 947.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know Walt isn't or else his reply would be in a thread from 2003.

Lol, awesome. And because when pay too much for a mediocre product its usually booze, not electronics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think a team that has a couple of very good pitchers (Whether they be power pitchers or not) has an extra advantage in post-season relative to the regular season due to all the days off. The majority of great pitchers seem to be power pitchers now, but I don't know if being a power pitcher helps more in the playoffs than the regular season.

It seems to be conventional wisdom that the curve is harder to throw in colder weather. Of course where does that leave a FB/Curve guy like Verlander then? :confused:

But you are absolutely correct that short rotations favor the team with a couple of Cy Young calibre guys even if the rest of the rotation sucks as compared to a more even talent pitching staff that has a lower over all ERA. That is just the math. And Minnesota has pretty much fit that second profile as well. They did have Santana for a while, but even at this best a heavy RH hitting team could beat Santana - as some of the heavy RH Tiger teams did pretty easily.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just to be clear, I get that there is a high degree of luck involved in short playoff series. I don't believe the best team always wins. But to suggest that Oakland and Minnesota are 1-10 in playoff series over the last 13 years (with the only win being head-to-head) is explainable simply through bad luck just isn't credible. There is more going on there. To say that the playoffs are a crap shoot is a cop-out, one that largely took root in Moneyball as an excuse to explain why the A's hadn't had more postseason success.

It is credible, if you understand statistics, and you haven't proven anything, except your willingness to make assumptions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sounds too short

Maybe. But he was arguing with me over publically available information. It wasn't even a matter of opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Maybe. But he was arguing with me over publically available information. It wasn't even a matter of opinion.

Uh oh someone went for realzies

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Maybe. But he was arguing with me over publically available information. It wasn't even a matter of opinion.

Cool story bro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Motown Sports Blog



  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      96,736
    • Total Posts
      2,999,387
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×
×
  • Create New...