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Jeff6851

2013-14 Offseason Thread

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The word "purging" smacks of Maoism...or Stalinism. Is DD an old school commie? If so, why haven't we signed more Cubans?

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Burgandy is a good guy and is right more often than he's wrong, FWIW.

His winning percentage is definitely above .500

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You can't really be this dense.

Well, wait till he gets going!

Now where were he?

Australia.

Yes, Australia. You must have know the powder's origin.............

Ron, this is the argument you are now involved in. Merry Christmas.

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Untrue. While playoff baseball is difficult to predict due to the short series, trends do emerge over time. There is a reason the A's never win in the playoffs, and why Dombrowski built teams usually do.

Yeah, he's called Justin Verlander

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Tenacious D's lineup is good enough to win the AL Central with a rotation of Verlander-Scherzer-Sanchez-The Professor-And Maryanne. I put in parentheses a realistic expectation of BA for each

Kinsler (.285, .355 OBP)

Dirks/Davis (.280 / .285)

Cabrera (.335)

Martinez (.325)

Hunter (.300)

A. Jackson (.285)

Avila (.255)

Castellanos (.265)

Iglesias (.250)

Remember, in a very big ballpark with large power alleys, the home run can be quite overrated. Guys that can drive it into the gaps can keep innings going, plenty of hitters in this lineup to do that. If there is a failure somewhere and they see it by July - they can make a move to get enhancement at the deadline. They certainly won't be out of it by July.

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Ervin Santana is absolutely terrible, costs a draft pick, and would cost a ton of money.

He's doing nothing but making that **** up.

I was just TRYING to get over losing Doug Fister.

DD would not sign this chump would he????????????

No way. Say it aint so. This will p*** me off.

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Sigh all you want, but it's true. Since 2009, teams with the better contact rate in the regular season are now 26-9 in postseason series.

What we learned from the 2013 season - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Meanwhile, Oakland is now 1-7 in playoff series since 2000.

Just because an individual playoff series may be difficult to predict does not mean that playoff success is just blind luck. Over a large enough sample of playoff series, trends emerge. Power, strikeout pitching generally rules the day in October. The teams that have it tend to advance, those that don't have it tend to go home. Conversely, high contact offenses tend to do better in October.

The notion that the playoffs are a complete crap shoot is a myth. It's one of the things the SABR folks have been wrong about.

Good to know correlation implies causation.

Also good to know baseball has only been played since 2009.

Here's a fact - since 2006 the Tigers were perfect in the post-season against the Yankees and A's and lost to every other team. Clearly the Tigers can only beat the A's and Yankees in the post-season.

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I'm going to side with unlock the shrine in the unlock the shrine v. ron burgundy battle.

I disagree with burgundy 100% of the time, and shrine only 90% of the time, so I think I picked the right horse.

60% of the time it works every time.

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Here's your lineup, barring any more moves:

Kinsler

Dirks/Davis

Cabrera

Martinez

Hunter

A. Jackson

Avila

Castellanos

Iglesias

That is bad...unless a bunch of things we hope happens...happens. Casty hitting, Dirks hitting...and even then you have a big hole at 9...most teams do though and we can make up for it...IF the others hit.

As of right now...the #1 piece for the Tigers is Casty. He hits we will be alright I think...if he is not ready this season could get ugly.

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Burgandy is a good guy and is right more often than he's wrong, FWIW.
His winning percentage is definitely above .500

It is awesome that a guy who calls someone stupid and throws around words like dense can be considered a great guy.

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It is awesome that a guy who calls someone stupid and throws around words like dense can be considered a great guy.

I never said he was a great guy. :happy:

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This is quite possibly the most insane thing I've ever read on this forum, and that includes my own posts. Wow.

Oh come on, that isn't even the most insane thing I have said this week, it's not even Friday.

Edited by T&P_Fan

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Sigh all you want, but it's true. Since 2009, teams with the better contact rate in the regular season are now 26-9 in postseason series.

What we learned from the 2013 season - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Meanwhile, Oakland is now 1-7 in playoff series since 2000.

Just because an individual playoff series may be difficult to predict does not mean that playoff success is just blind luck. Over a large enough sample of playoff series, trends emerge. Power, strikeout pitching generally rules the day in October. The teams that have it tend to advance, those that don't have it tend to go home. Conversely, high contact offenses tend to do better in October.

The notion that the playoffs are a complete crap shoot is a myth. It's one of the things the SABR folks have been wrong about.

Yep. I love this post. The best team always wins.

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Yep. I love this post. The best team always wins.

Hah! And here we go...

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It is awesome that a guy who calls someone stupid and throws around words like dense can be considered a great guy.

Yes, I'm sure you've never done such a thing in your life. If only we all had the moral superiority of JBK.

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Okay, not that I think the Tigers and Kemp were really ever a serious thing, but...

"...anyone who believes the Tigers are involved with the Kemp "saga" isn't...listening to DD when he says we aren't pursuing any big names."

Hasn't DD shown, time and time again, that he keeps his cards close to his chest? We need to look no further than the infamous: "Fielder isn't a fit for the Tigers" comments to see that DD more than willing to throw out smoke screens.

DD plays his cards close to his vest, yes, but he doesn't purposefully mislead the media, players or fans. So no, he doesn't use smoke screens. He's very straight forward and candid, when you can actual get him to go on the record with a substantial comment. That is how DD plays his cards, he has a way of not saying much at all, when he is asked questions by the media.

Fielder, I believe, was a case where Illitch stepped in and changed the course that DD had plotted. I do not believe at all that DD was pursuing Fielder and using comments in the media as a smoke screen.

Now, back to the "Kemp Saga", here is the latest:

Jason Beck

‏@beckjason 17h Dombrowski: "We have never ever had a conversation with the Dodgers about Matt Kemp."

I don't really believe that either, because these guys talk about players without using their names for plausible deniability. But asking about a player to guage cost and keep your pulse on the market, clearly isn't the same as actively trying to trade for someone or anything close to a 'saga'.

DD has said we aren't looking at any big names. There is no reason to believe that isn't the case. The thing that could change that is if Illitch steps in to open his pocket book. At a current payroll of $155 million plus, I'm not sure I think that will happen.

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Yes, I'm sure you've never done such a thing in your life. If only we all had the moral superiority of JBK.

Not to people I considered friends. I am not sure if I have ever called someone stupid in RL....I have THOUGHT it about many people...not many of those people were friends if any, but never called them that. I think I may have done it here a couple times. I am sure I apologized after the fact though.

You want to call that 'moral superiority' that is on you. I call it common courtesy.

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Well, now that I see how this works, I plan to start every new post with "Argument over."

That way I know I win everything, always. Kindergarten is fun.

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Yes, I'm sure you've never done such a thing in your life. If only we all had the moral superiority of JBK.

your stupid.

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Pretty good story on Tom Seaver - interesting quotes on 2 Tiger pitchers.

When he finally turned to the sports pages to check out the Tigers-Red Sox score in the ALCS, he threw up his hands, knocking off his cap, and grabbed his hair like a frustrated teenager, which in some ways he always was. Detroit's Max Scherzer had pitched brilliantly for seven innings and was beating the Red Sox, 5-1, on a two-hitter, until he was yanked before the eighth inning. His relief pitchers gave up five runs in the next two innings, including David Ortiz's grand slam, for a 6-5 Red Sox win.

Tom screeched like a girl, "Why'd they take Scherzer out?" I said, because his pitch count had reached 109. He screeched again, "Pitch count? Pitch count? Baseball's not brain surgery. You don't look for a reason to take him out. You look for a reason to leave him in! Guys like him and Verlander, their three setup men and closer don't equal them, or else they'd be starting pitchers! I'll tell ya, you wouldn't be able to get Bob Gibson off the mound in the eighth inning." Then he told me a story. Three stories, actually.

He was such a contradiction, a recluse who loved the company of men. Was he lonely up here? I remembered how he'd reacted at breakfast the day before, when I told him about Justin Verlander. He asked me a dozen questions about Verlander. I told him how Verlander and I argued over who was better, today's players, or players from my generation and before. He said today's players were better hitters, with their short, compact swings, compared to the longer swings of Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio. Tom piped up, "Yeah, but those older guys had multiple swings, depending on the situation. Today's hitters have just one swing, for the fences."

I told him Verlander was a tough pitcher. Great overhand fastball and curve. But he wasn't as smart as Tom, or as disciplined. When he got in trouble, he didn't know what to do, except just throw harder. Tom said, "He sounds like my kinda guy. An old-time pitcher." Then he looked at me and said, "Do you know him well?" I said, "Well enough. Why?" Tom said, as if a little embarrassed, "Maybe the next time you talk to him, you could tell him I'd like to talk to him. He could come up and visit sometime."

Walking the vineyards with Mets great Tom Seaver. | SportsonEarth.com : Pat Jordan Article

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It is awesome that a guy who calls someone stupid and throws around words like dense can be considered a great guy.

You forgot his great analytical skills.

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Sigh all you want, but it's true. Since 2009, teams with the better contact rate in the regular season are now 26-9 in postseason series.

What we learned from the 2013 season - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Meanwhile, Oakland is now 1-7 in playoff series since 2000.

Just because an individual playoff series may be difficult to predict does not mean that playoff success is just blind luck. Over a large enough sample of playoff series, trends emerge. Power, strikeout pitching generally rules the day in October. The teams that have it tend to advance, those that don't have it tend to go home. Conversely, high contact offenses tend to do better in October.

The notion that the playoffs are a complete crap shoot is a myth. It's one of the things the SABR folks have been wrong about.

Just so you know, this was mighty weak.

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Sigh all you want, but it's true. Since 2009, teams with the better contact rate in the regular season are now 26-9 in postseason series.

What we learned from the 2013 season - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Meanwhile, Oakland is now 1-7 in playoff series since 2000.

Just because an individual playoff series may be difficult to predict does not mean that playoff success is just blind luck. Over a large enough sample of playoff series, trends emerge. Power, strikeout pitching generally rules the day in October. The teams that have it tend to advance, those that don't have it tend to go home. Conversely, high contact offenses tend to do better in October.

The notion that the playoffs are a complete crap shoot is a myth. It's one of the things the SABR folks have been wrong about.

It will be interesting to see if this trend holds going forward. If I had to guess it won't (it was only 4-3 in 2013, according to the article). Often models that work well looking backward fail when applied looking forward. Looking at series wins rather than pure win-loss record seems like a poor choice as well. What happens if you change the end points to 2010 or 2008?

Bill James looked at this in the 80's and thought he found a formula. He publicized it and it proceeded to miss every series the following year and never held up over any period of time after he published the results.

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