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Jeff6851

2013-14 Offseason Thread

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sigh

Sigh all you want, but it's true. Since 2009, teams with the better contact rate in the regular season are now 26-9 in postseason series.

What we learned from the 2013 season - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Meanwhile, Oakland is now 1-7 in playoff series since 2000.

Just because an individual playoff series may be difficult to predict does not mean that playoff success is just blind luck. Over a large enough sample of playoff series, trends emerge. Power, strikeout pitching generally rules the day in October. The teams that have it tend to advance, those that don't have it tend to go home. Conversely, high contact offenses tend to do better in October.

The notion that the playoffs are a complete crap shoot is a myth. It's one of the things the SABR folks have been wrong about.

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Sigh all you want, but it's true. Since 2009, teams with the better contact rate in the regular season are now 26-9 in postseason series.

What we learned from the 2013 season - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Meanwhile, Oakland is now 1-7 in playoff series since 2000.

Just because an individual playoff series may be difficult to predict does not mean that playoff success is just blind luck. Over a large enough sample of playoff series, trends emerge. Power, strikeout pitching generally rules the day in October. The teams that have it tend to advance, those that don't have it tend to go home. Conversely, high contact offenses tend to do better in October.

The notion that the playoffs are a complete crap shoot is a myth. It's one of the things the SABR folks have been wrong about.

gosh, the tigers had the better contact rate than the red sox, why did we lose!!!!!!

you're wrong.

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You can't really be this dense.

you're the one typing this ******** that, I'm pretty sure, most people here know isn't true

hey, wanna know why teams with high contact rates typically win the series? because high contact offenses are probably GOOD OFFENSES

that does not mean that you need to be a high contact team to have a good offense. who had the better offense between the Tigers and Red Sox? the Red Sox. that's why they won. why do teams with power pitching usually win? because power pitching usually means the pitchers are good.

if a team has good pitchers, they will win, whether that's greg maddux or roger clemens. if a team has good hitters, they will win, whether that's evan longoria or jacoby ellsbury.

oh wait, now you're probably going to tell me evan longoria isn't a good player and that the Rays will never win with him. if you'd like another example, I'll make sure to pick out a guy who strikes out a ton and yet still won the world series. you know, like mike napoli.

argument over

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you're the one typing this ******** that, I'm pretty sure, most people here know isn't true

hey, wanna know why teams with high contact rates typically win the series? because high contact offenses are probably GOOD OFFENSES

that does not mean that you need to be a high contact team to have a good offense. who had the better offense between the Tigers and Red Sox? the Red Sox. that's why they won. why do teams with power pitching usually win? because power pitching usually means the pitchers are good.

if a team has good pitchers, they will win, whether that's greg maddux or roger clemens. if a team has good hitters, they will win, whether that's evan longoria or jacoby ellsbury.

oh wait, now you're probably going to tell me evan longoria isn't a good player and that the Rays will never win with him. if you'd like another example, I'll make sure to pick out a guy who strikes out a ton and yet still won the world series. you know, like mike napoli.

argument over

Looks like I was wrong. You really are that stupid. Thanks for the confirmation.

Edit: And just in case it isn't clear, almost every team in the playoffs has good pitchers and good offenses. Some pitching staffs are more finesse oriented, some more power oriented. Oakland and Minnesota (when they were good) have had good pitching, but it wasn't dominant, power pitching. They are something like a combined 1-10 in playoff series since 2000. And the only victory was when they played each other. You can say that's just a fluke, but I don't buy it.

Edited by Ron Burgandy

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Looks like I was wrong. You really are that stupid. Thanks for the confirmation.

Edit: And just in case it isn't clear, almost every team in the playoffs has good pitchers and good offenses. Some pitching staffs are more finesse oriented, some more power oriented. Oakland and Minnesota (when they were good) have had good pitching, but it wasn't dominant, power pitching. They are something like a combined 1-10 in playoff series since 2000. And the only victory was when they played each other. You can say that's just a fluke, but I don't buy it.

I'm not sure you can respond. Argument over was declared in the previous post.

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Perhaps DD is building a team that suits Ausmus' managerial style and so that involves purging players who suited Leyland's managerial style.

This sounds sensible to me.

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Untrue. While playoff baseball is difficult to predict due to the short series, trends do emerge over time. There is a reason the A's never win in the playoffs, and why Dombrowski built teams usually do.

What is the reason and does it hold for other teams built similarly to the Athletics and Tigers?

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This is quite possibly the most insane thing I've ever read on this forum, and that includes my own posts. Wow.

T&P takes pride in that honor though.

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Rumor is the Yankees turned down a Gardner for Phillips trade, kind of suprised as it's a Need for Need move.

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What is the reason and does it hold for other teams built similarly to the Athletics and Tigers?

It's because the A's aren't build with a Verlander to own the Tigers

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Sigh all you want, but it's true. Since 2009, teams with the better contact rate in the regular season are now 26-9 in postseason series.

What we learned from the 2013 season - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Meanwhile, Oakland is now 1-7 in playoff series since 2000.

Just because an individual playoff series may be difficult to predict does not mean that playoff success is just blind luck. Over a large enough sample of playoff series, trends emerge. Power, strikeout pitching generally rules the day in October. The teams that have it tend to advance, those that don't have it tend to go home. Conversely, high contact offenses tend to do better in October.

The notion that the playoffs are a complete crap shoot is a myth. It's one of the things the SABR folks have been wrong about.

That's not a big enough sample for me and I'd want to know more about the make-ups of those teams. For example, did the teams that were good at contact hitting tend to also have superior pitching? Why did he start with 2009? I do believe that top-end pitching becomes more important in post-season because the rules are different with so many days off. I'm skeptical about the contact hitting part though.

Edited by tiger337

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I'm going to side with unlock the shrine in the unlock the shrine v. ron burgundy battle.

I disagree with burgundy 100% of the time, and shrine only 90% of the time, so I think I picked the right horse.

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Rumor is the Yankees turned down a Gardner for Phillips trade, kind of suprised as it's a Need for Need move.

Interesting if true. I wonder if Cincinnati didn't agree to eat part of Phillips' contract and that was the sticking point. Rumor was that he was available and you're right that would be a good need-for-need trade.

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Interesting if true. I wonder if Cincinnati didn't agree to eat part of Phillips' contract and that was the sticking point. Rumor was that he was available and you're right that would be a good need-for-need trade.

Supposedly Phillips wanted a raise to approve the trade.

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Supposedly Phillips wanted a raise to approve the trade.

Yeah coming out he's on his No-Trade list and wanted more money than his 4Y/50M left to go there. Which is part of the reason the Reds want to trade him, he's being a whiny little ***** how little he is paid.

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Burgandy is a good guy and is right more often than he's wrong, FWIW.

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