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Jeff6851

2013-14 Offseason Thread

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Yes - it's hard to see how any result for an individual player could ever have much certainly, I was thinking more along the line of whether it was possible to show the existence of an effect or not in general.

Just on the fan speculation side, I think it might possible for a player to raise his concentration level in a short series - but is would seem the longer a playoff went on -- and the format today goes on a long time! -- it would be progressively harder to maintain. I also wonder if maybe more players do raise their game in the playoffs and we don't notice it exactly because we don't normalize out that even average performances against playoff pitchers may actually be above average. And then of course so many playoff games are played in poor baseball playing conditions that the whole endeavor maybe is impossible!

yeah, I think there are probably too many variables and not enough sample size to do it with any certainty. Personally, I do think it's possible that a player can raise his level of play, but I don't think a .850 OPS guy becomes a 1.128 true talent in the playoffs. That seems too magical to me. I would not be surprised if he became a .880 true talent.

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looking a large number of players over time you should be able to tell if the difference in their mean performance exceeded the deviation expected for the sample size. Of course you have to normalize if for the higher quality pitching and it would easier to find if you only expected a differential in one direction, but it as noted in this discussion, some players are claimed to rise to the playoffs and others to fall so you have to look at the test from both sides.

Or you can just look at their uniform after the games and determine if they're gritty.

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I could see that. Pitching staffs should also be much better than one faces during the regular season- I have never looked into this or seen if there were any studies on it, but I imagine there are some players more susceptible to struggling against top pitching than others. There will be less mistake pitches and a player is a little bit more likely to be attacked and defended against their main weaknesses due to the opposing pitcher's improved control. Thus, if a player has a more pronounced weakness than others do against a certain type of pitch or pitch location, then it could be exploited more when facing good pitchers and his numbers could drop as a result.

The shortened and better pitching staffs is a good call. I wonder if left handed hitters n today's era are more susceptible to poor playoff performances with the usage of loogys in addition to better overall pitching? Might not be enough of a difference to be materially evident.

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Carlos Beltran has only had an OPS over 1 in a playoff series since 2006. Granted it has been over 900 most of the time, but he's been closer to his career norm.

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If I read this correctly…Richard Justice is saying that we have checked in on Curtis Granderson

Richard Justice: Tigers one move from being favorite heading into 2014 season | tigers.com: News

Let's check out three obvious possibilities ...

Shin-Soo Choo? He'd be a perfect fit at the top of the order with all that firepower -- Miguel Cabrera, Torii Hunter, Victor Martinez, etc. -- behind him.

Carlos Beltran? He would elevate the Tigers from good to scary good. How about Beltran hitting in the No. 2 hole between Hunter or Ian Kinsler and Cabrera. Yikes.

Curtis Granderson? Another nice fit. A left-handed bat. A defensive upgrade in the outfield. A winner.

Dombrowski is believed to have checked in on all three. If he lands any of them, the Tigers could enter Spring Training with the "Best Team in Baseball" designation. Wouldn't that be the perfect way for Brad Ausmus to start his managerial career?

that is sort of new, news.

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I'm really hoping for Soo or Headley as I think those are the best fits, but I worry about giving up too much for Headley given his up and down history.

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Dong Kelly probably will end up on the Boesch trajectory. Would be around 186k to be release in mid-march.

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Don Kelly is insurance in case they deal Dirks. I have no problem bringing him back as if today.

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I could see that. Pitching staffs should also be much better than one faces during the regular season- I have never looked into this or seen if there were any studies on it, but I imagine there are some players more susceptible to struggling against top pitching than others. There will be less mistake pitches and a player is a little bit more likely to be attacked and defended against their main weaknesses due to the opposing pitcher's improved control. Thus, if a player has a more pronounced weakness than others do against a certain type of pitch or pitch location, then it could be exploited more when facing good pitchers and his numbers could drop as a result.

Vince Gennaro of SABR has been studying this very issue. He's been on Clubhouse Confidential talking about this, and he also presented on it at SABR 43 this year:

H-kx-x_d0Mk

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The Kelly deal is harmless...

As long as it doesn't steal too many valuable at bats from better hitters.

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The Kelly deal is harmless...

I'd rather have 1 million dollars + a 25-man roster spot for a player who is average at one or two positions than have less 1 million dollars + a player who is below average at every position.

And you say it's harmless, but we all know how this turns out. Don Kelly starts a handful of games, hits around .290 with one "clutch" hit and then gets rolled out there for 100 games on the season and hits .150 the rest of the way trying to get that "clutch" hit again.

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I don't think it will... I checked his 2013 defensive games.... he played 2B???? I don't remember.

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From what I've casually observed, Donnie Baseball only gets OF starts after the erstwhile incumbents have crapped the bed for quite a few games in a row out there. Smokes preferred to use him as a defensive replacement or to give somebody a rest.

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From what I've casually observed, Donnie Baseball only gets OF starts after the erstwhile incumbents have crapped the bed for quite a few games in a row out there. Smokes preferred to use him as a defensive replacement or to give somebody a rest.

He gets between 170 to 220 at bats a season, which is equivalent to playing 1/3 of the season. His games played is skewed because he comes in as a defensive replacement.

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I think it's more likely that Fielder is a poor post-season hitter than Beltran a good one because it's easier to see someone wilting under pressure than rising to the occasion. I don't think playoff sample sizes ever get large enough to prove it either way though.

Just curious why you would think that. Is there more proof of 'wilting' than 'rising' in sports? I only ask because you have usually read a study on such things. IMO it would be an either or situation for both not one or the other.

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I'd rather have 1 million dollars + a 25-man roster spot for a player who is average at one or two positions than have less 1 million dollars + a player who is below average at every position.

And you say it's harmless, but we all know how this turns out. Don Kelly starts a handful of games, hits around .290 with one "clutch" hit and then gets rolled out there for 100 games on the season and hits .150 the rest of the way trying to get that "clutch" hit again.

I know if kinda flew under the radar so I understand if you missed it: Jim Leyland retired.

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From what I've casually observed, Donnie Baseball only gets OF starts after the erstwhile incumbents have crapped the bed for quite a few games in a row out there. Smokes preferred to use him as a defensive replacement or to give somebody a rest.

Which makes things more puzzling for me, because I believe he looks like a newborn giraffe in the outfield on defense and throws like a left-hander practicing with his off-hand.

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Kelly can play all 3 OF positions and 1st and 3rd base. He truly is ideal as a 25th man and I have no problem with him in that role. It's just seeing him start too much that bothers me. He doesn't need to fill in for Torii Hunter in April, Torii is in terrific shape and can probably start every day through mid June.

Get the starting LF and I would love to have a bench of McCann/Holaday, Hernan Perez, Don Kelly and Andy Dirks.

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