Jump to content

belcherboy

Trout over Cabrera for MVP; Hernandez over Scherzer for Cy Young; Myers over Iglesia?

Recommended Posts

I wonder how often stat heads just start throwing stuff at the wall to try to convince people how smart they are. Anything to go against conventional wisdom. I'm not anti-saber metrics. I think they've added a lot to the game, even down to the lineups you put on the field. Debates are fine. Opinions are fine. This guy seems to think anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I honestly don't see how Fernandez gets a vote over Scherzer.

OK, I'll buy the Trout thing somewhat, but Scherzer's year is better than Hernandez's and not just with the wins stat.

This guy is on crack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
By trendy, you mean correct ?:happy:

Nope, just trendy. And, like all trendy things, this too shall pass.

Six of one, half dozen of the other if you ask me. Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball with a slash line for the ages. Trout is a better defender and faster, but hasn't played a meaningful game all season. Despite those who think players are strat-o-matic cards, that means something.

There are as many offensive stats where Cabrera leads Trout as Trout leads Cabrera. Placing a numerical value on defense and baserunning is a fool's game and even though Trout is obviously superior to Cabrera at both, I think Cabrera's offensive value outweighs Trout and makes him the MVP.

But most importantly, Cabrera is my favorite player, and that's what really matters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fact is, Trout was terrible in April – when his team was still in the running. Cabrera was phenomenal in April and basically every month until September, when he was hurt but still contributed in key ways to help his team win its division.

The fact that Trout excelled later in the year when his team was hopelessly out of it is not going to convince many voters that he should be MVP over a guy who could have quit playing Aug. 31 and still put up better numbers than 99.9% of MLB hitters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These guys do this to get their name out there and some do it just ti be different....someone REALLY did not vote Ryan into the HOF? LMAO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dang it... if only Cabrera had hit fewer HRs then maybe he'd have more double and triples. This argument is EASILY defeated by simply look at the Total bases stat: 353 (Cabrera) to 328 (Trout). Yeah, Trout has more doubles and Triples. Cabrera has more homeruns and singles.

Brilliant. More total bases in fewer PA's. You could tack on 30 steals to close the gap, but then you need to subtract a big penalty for getting caught 7 times.

Trout's a nice outfielder but Miguel is a better fielder than he is getting credit for. I daresay he's a better third baseman than Trout is.

During how many Cabrera at-bats this year did I say to myself, "Dang, I wish Trout were up instead of Cabrera."? None. Zero. Not even close. So I think that the metrics are making it seem that Trout is closer to Cabrera's offensive value than is the case in reality. Better baserunner? Sure. Does that make up for the difference in the bat? Not for me it doesn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Brilliant. More total bases in fewer PA's. You could tack on 30 steals to close the gap, but then you need to subtract a big penalty for getting caught 7 times.

Trout's a nice outfielder but Miguel is a better fielder than he is getting credit for. I daresay he's a better third baseman than Trout is.

During how many Cabrera at-bats this year did I say to myself, "Dang, I wish Trout were up instead of Cabrera."? None. Zero. Not even close. So I think that the metrics are making it seem that Trout is closer to Cabrera's offensive value than is the case in reality. Better baserunner? Sure. Does that make up for the difference in the bat? Not for me it doesn't.

Did you subtract the gidp of Cabrera?

Also, did the total bases include walks or not?

Did you ever say, going into the game, "dang, I wish trout was playing left field instead of Cabrera playing third"?

Is trout a better left fielder than Cabrera is?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nope, just trendy. And, like all trendy things, this too shall pass.

Six of one, half dozen of the other if you ask me. Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball with a slash line for the ages. Trout is a better defender and faster, but hasn't played a meaningful game all season. Despite those who think players are strat-o-matic cards, that means something.

There are as many offensive stats where Cabrera leads Trout as Trout leads Cabrera. Placing a numerical value on defense and baserunning is a fool's game and even though Trout is obviously superior to Cabrera at both, I think Cabrera's offensive value outweighs Trout and makes him the MVP.

But most importantly, Cabrera is my favorite player, and that's what really matters

ha ha buddha is doing some advanced trollin tonight!

In my mind, Trout was the better player both years and that's what I think the MVP should be. Most valuable is subjective though and people have their own definitions. I can accept that as long as they are consistent from year to year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would have no problem with Felix or Darvish or Sanchez getting the Cy Young over Scherzer (although I'm almost certain Max will win it), but think Keri was really searching hard for a "tiebreaker" that would be in Felix's favor when he came up with Opponents' OPS. Get the feeling, although of course I can't prove, that he looked into a few other relatively obscure measures that didn't make his case for Hernandez as well. It's almost like Punishing Scherzer for being on a strong hitting team and not having to pitch against them, and favoring Felix for not having to face his weak-hitting Mariners. And Opponents' OPS can be misleading - was it their OPS for the entire season, what their OPS was at the time they hit against a pitcher, or what was their OPS in the week leading up to their game against a pitcher (to normalize for hot or cold streaks at the plate). And for BABIP, like others have mentioned it may not be sustainable by Max into next year, but the results are the results, outs are outs this year - otherwise you're getting into style points like figure skating. I don't value W-L records either, but don't have a problem at all with it being used as a tiebreaker instead of Opponents' OPS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Felix and Max were practically the same pitcher this year. The wins will be the tie breaker. No way Max doesn't win it IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wonder how often stat heads just start throwing stuff at the wall to try to convince people how smart they are. Anything to go against conventional wisdom. I'm not anti-saber metrics. I think they've added a lot to the game, even down to the lineups you put on the field. Debates are fine. Opinions are fine. This guy seems to think anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot.

I didn't get that at all from the article. There was no snark or name calling, just a well written article for the most part. He feels that Trout should be the MVP and he tried to support it. Wishy washy articles where you say both players deserve to win don't work well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I would have no problem with Felix or Darvish or Sanchez getting the Cy Young over Scherzer (although I'm almost certain Max will win it), but think Keri was really searching hard for a "tiebreaker" that would be in Felix's favor when he came up with Opponents' OPS. Get the feeling, although of course I can't prove, that he looked into a few other relatively obscure measures that didn't make his case for Hernandez as well. It's almost like Punishing Scherzer for being on a strong hitting team and not having to pitch against them, and favoring Felix for not having to face his weak-hitting Mariners. And Opponents' OPS can be misleading - was it their OPS for the entire season, what their OPS was at the time they hit against a pitcher, or what was their OPS in the week leading up to their game against a pitcher (to normalize for hot or cold streaks at the plate). And for BABIP, like others have mentioned it may not be sustainable by Max into next year, but the results are the results, outs are outs this year - otherwise you're getting into style points like figure skating. I don't value W-L records either, but don't have a problem at all with it being used as a tiebreaker instead of Opponents' OPS.

yeah, I believe Hernandez is a reasonable choice, but I don't think opponents OPS was a good argument. Now, OPS or better yet wOBA versus the pitcher would be a good thing to look at, not as a definitive stat, but as another piece of the puzzle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I didn't get that at all from the article. There was no snark or name calling, just a well written article for the most part. He feels that Trout should be the MVP and he tried to support it. Wishy washy articles where you say both players deserve to win don't work well.

Nor did I. I enjoyed his writing style and the facts he presented. It was like a lawyer or debate team captain making a case in a logical manner. There are holes to point out in a couple of his points, IMO, but that's the opponent's role in a debate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going with Cabrera for MVP. 3rd straight batting title. Injured for most of the 2nd half but played thru most of it. Still had amazing stats. The problem I have with Trout is

his team won nothing. It certainly wasn't his fault, but it seems to me an MVP should be able to elevate his team to a higher level and I don't see that in Anaheim.

I'm truly not a homer when it comes to stuff like this. But I also pick Max for Cy Young simply because all his stats were in the tops and his wins were far above the rest.

It's that easy for me - and without him, the Tigers win nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my predictions on what will happen:

MVP: Trout. I both Cabby and Trout have a legit claim. But I think many voters who voted for Cabrera last year will look at his "lesser" number this year and add in that they voted for Cabrera last year so this year it goes to Trout. I'm okay with this. As a Tiger fan I want Cabrera to win, but I won't feel Cabrera was "robbed" if he doesn't get it.

CY: Scherzer. He's tops or near tops in many of the categories. I think voters will be swayed by the W/L record even though I think it's a dumb measure of a pitcher. In this case it works to a Tigers fan's advantge.

ROY: Very hard for me to say on this one. How much importance will voters place on defense? How much will Iglasias playing with two teams and therefore being seen by more people help him with voters? If you put a gun to my head I'd say Myers. Offensive stats are just so much easier to "see" and rank, and Myers is close to equal or better in just about every offensive stat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Scherzer has had a better season than Hernandez. A lot less hits in more innings pitched, leads the AL in WHIP, more strikeouts and lower ERA. The only thing that Felix has on him is less walks.

Using BABIP to diminish his giving up less hits this season is ridiculous. Next year if/when he regresses, then don't give him the Cy Young. Lucky or not he was better than Hernandez this season.

It's like these saber guys get offended now when a pitcher that has the most wins gets the Cy Young.

What's next? A hitter has a freakishly good year with BABIP and wins the batting title because of it, but they decide to give it to someone else because he was "lucky"

Absurd.

EDIT: Hell, his teammate Iwakuma has had a better season that Hernandez.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's my predictions on what will happen:

MVP: Trout. I both Cabby and Trout have a legit claim. But I think many voters who voted for Cabrera last year will look at his "lesser" number this year and add in that they voted for Cabrera last year so this year it goes to Trout. I'm okay with this. As a Tiger fan I want Cabrera to win, but I won't feel Cabrera was "robbed" if he doesn't get it.

What do you mean by lesser number? 2013 Cabrera is better than 2012 Cabrera in almost every way. The counting stats are very close, but Cabrera's rates are way better this year. I think Cabrera will win the MVP easily again this year and his closest competition will be Davis.

Scherzer will win almost unanimously. Even most of the sabers are picking him, so there will be no controversy.

Myers will probably win because he has better power numbers. The fact that Iglesias split the season between two positions will hurt him, because that makes him look less like a slick defensive shortstop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What do you mean by lesser number? 2013 Cabrera is better than 2012 Cabrera in almost every way. The counting stats are very close, but Cabrera's rates are way better this year. I think Cabrera will win the MVP easily again this year and his closest competition will be Davis.

Scherzer will win almost unanimously. Even most of the sabers are picking him, so there will be no controversy.

Myers will probably win because he has better power numbers. The fact that Iglesias split the season between two positions will hurt him, because that makes him look less like a slick defensive shortstop.

Also, concerning the voting, won't their be new voters this year? I thought that they pick two writers from each city, and from year to year it is different.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's my predictions on what will happen:

MVP: Trout. I both Cabby and Trout have a legit claim. But I think many voters who voted for Cabrera last year will look at his "lesser" number this year and add in that they voted for Cabrera last year so this year it goes to Trout. I'm okay with this. As a Tiger fan I want Cabrera to win, but I won't feel Cabrera was "robbed" if he doesn't get it.

CY: Scherzer. He's tops or near tops in many of the categories. I think voters will be swayed by the W/L record even though I think it's a dumb measure of a pitcher. In this case it works to a Tigers fan's advantge.

ROY: Very hard for me to say on this one. How much importance will voters place on defense? How much will Iglasias playing with two teams and therefore being seen by more people help him with voters? If you put a gun to my head I'd say Myers. Offensive stats are just so much easier to "see" and rank, and Myers is close to equal or better in just about every offensive stat.

If Trout wins over Cabby it will be a travesty IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nope, just trendy. And, like all trendy things, this too shall pass.

Six of one, half dozen of the other if you ask me. Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball with a slash line for the ages. Trout is a better defender and faster, but hasn't played a meaningful game all season. Despite those who think players are strat-o-matic cards, that means something.

There are as many offensive stats where Cabrera leads Trout as Trout leads Cabrera. Placing a numerical value on defense and baserunning is a fool's game and even though Trout is obviously superior to Cabrera at both, I think Cabrera's offensive value outweighs Trout and makes him the MVP.

But most importantly, Cabrera is my favorite player, and that's what really matters.

Nobody thinks players are strat-o-matic cards or robots or whatever. That is a tired ad hominem attack.

You are better than that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What do you mean by lesser number? 2013 Cabrera is better than 2012 Cabrera in almost every way. The counting stats are very close, but Cabrera's rates are way better this year. I think Cabrera will win the MVP easily again this year and his closest competition will be Davis.

Scherzer will win almost unanimously. Even most of the sabers are picking him, so there will be no controversy.

Myers will probably win because he has better power numbers. The fact that Iglesias split the season between two positions will hurt him, because that makes him look less like a slick defensive shortstop.

This team (the last 4-5 year versions) have some serious hardware to go with all the post season appearances. What a GREAT run we have had so far. We need to top it off with a WS win. I promise I will not get greedy and demand another one to become satisfied. One will be enough and the next 4-5 years (probably even longer) will all be gravy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If Trout wins over Cabby it will be a travesty IMO.

Do you need to see Trout do this a third time to be certain that he's not a fluke?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do you need to see Trout do this a third time to be certain that he's not a fluke?

Dude is a really good player. I think what you are referencing was a discussion the board had a few months ago about trading Miggy for Trout straight up.

Trout is legit, but I am not trading Miggy for ANY player in the league right now straight up. HTH

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      96,170
    • Total Posts
      2,832,372
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×