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KleShreen

2013 Trade Deadline Chatter

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Yes, I'm quite sure the haul some other team would give to rent Scherzer for one season (2014) before he and his agent Scott Boras filed for free agency would be very amazing indeed.

Do you think that the return for a year of Scherzer would be greater or less than the return the Marlins got for half a year of Sanchez and 1.5 years of Infante?

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Do you think that the return for a year of Scherzer would be greater or less than the return the Marlins got for half a year of Sanchez and 1.5 years of Infante?

and the team that trades for him will do so with the understanding that they can give him the contract he wants.

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Do you think that the return for a year of Scherzer would be greater or less than the return the Marlins got for half a year of Sanchez and 1.5 years of Infante?

Great Question:

Like everything else, I think it will depend on the market. I really think teams that can have lots of payroll flexability would rather wait another year until 2014 and steal Scherzer via free agency and lose a draft pick (via free agent compensation) than in 2013 cough up a small fortune in prospects for Scherzer for only one year.

There are more than a few teams teams that could really use Scherzer (Phillies, Angels, Rockies, Padres, ect) but they may not have the payroll going forward to keep Scherzer or the prospects that the Tigers would want to make a early exit from the Tigers worth while.

If the Tigers were the Cubs or the Marlins, we'd shout "Salary Dump!" and try and cash Scherzer in for as many fantastically talented young players as we could steal. The problem is the Tigers may not have the next 2-4 years to see if any of the young players netted in a Scherzer deal will pan out.

So to try and directly answer your question, I think the reaction to a Scherzer trade by Tiger fans would best be summed up as;

"I though we would have gotten more for Scherzer, but I guess if the Tigers were not going to try and sign him after 2014, it wasn't a bad trade...."

Edited by STLTiger69

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I read an article not too long ago about players Stanton's size having chronic injury problems. I would hesitate to trade the farm for him after reading that article.

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I read an article not too long ago about players Stanton's size having chronic injury problems. I would hesitate to trade the farm for him after reading that article.

I'm not knocking Stanton, but seriously, he's missed 80 games out of the last 236 games. At what point do people start to wonder if he'll hold up the next few year?

Miguel Cabrera for instance, since his first full season 10 years ago in 2004- He has played in 1,499 games and only sat out a total of 33 games during that entire span.....

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I think the Tigers will re-sign Max.....But I still would not trade Smyly. He might just have the most upside of any Tiger right now. If the Tigers make a trade, look for them to trade a player such as Garcia or Ortega. They seem to showcase a couple of players every year just for this purpose.

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Even if the Tigers don't think they can sign Max, it would take a potential impact player at a position of need to move him. I wonder if there would be a way to turn him into Profar? Something like Max + Castellanos or Garcia for Profar + Grimm or Tepesch or Perez?

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Even if the Tigers don't think they can sign Max, it would take a potential impact player at a position of need to move him. I wonder if there would be a way to turn him into Profar? Something like Max + Castellanos or Garcia for Profar + Grimm or Tepesch or Perez?

Anything is possible, but if I was Texas I'd just wait one extra year and sign Scherzer as a free agent. Thus keeping all of Profar, Grimm, Tepesch and Perez and just adding Scherzer to that 2015 team...

Edited by STLTiger69

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Anything is possible, but if I was Texas I'd just wait one extra year and sign Scherzer as a free agent. Thus keeping all of Profar, Grimm, Tepesch and Perez and just adding Scherzer to that 2015 team...

This begs the question of other teams offering Detroit something credible for Scherzer. Just assuming that you can get Scherzer for nothing by waiting for him to become a FA is faulty thinking, IMO.

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Im not a huge fan of going after any pricey arms like papelbon. Ive kind of been thinking cishek would be a good option for the right price (dont get stanton though, he's too injury prone). I'm also in favor of giving rondon another shot before the trade deadline, if he can close that could save the tigers a few prospects.

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Considering we've made it to almost the all-star break, at this point, I'm fairly certain the smart move is to try to sign Brian Wilson who should be showcasing himself anytime.

As a back-up plan, if Milwaukee is selling, K-Rod or Axford would be good additions. I was a proponent of K-Rod all winter, and for some reason he was an unwanted commodity. Axford had pitched very well for over a month, since getting torched for the first 40 days of the season. I don't think either of these guys would cost much, if we take their salary.

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steal Scherzer via free agency and lose a draft pick (via free agent compensation) than in 2013 cough up a small fortune in prospects for Scherzer for only one year.

thats a good point about the draft pick compensation. i somehow keep forgetting the tigers will still get a great pick even if somebody else signs him.

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thats a good point about the draft pick compensation. i somehow keep forgetting the tigers will still get a great pick even if somebody else signs him.

Ehh, is a ~26-35 pick really worth Max?

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Papelbon has blown 4 of his last 5 save opportunities.

Sounds like a perfect fit.

Exactly. If we are going to trade Castellanos for a closer, it damn well better be a closer who actually closes. I mean hell, at this point, I would rather trade for (gulp) Grilli, who somehow is now a dominant one. Not that he's available, of course.

That said, I don't really think the Phillies can be too demanding if they trade Papelbon. He's got 2.5 years left at a pretty hefty salary, so either they pay the entire thing and get some good talent in return (doubtful) or they pay half and take a middling prospect or two and call it a salary dump (much more likely to me). If it takes Castellanos to get him, we better not be paying one cent of his salary.

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I think the question of trading Max all going to depend on whether the Tigers win the WS this season. If they do, DD won't have any trouble re-tooling the organization for the long term, and that gives them a window to trade Max, get a quality haul, and replace him with a back end free agent starter. But if they don't win this year, they're going to still be in "go for broke mode" right? Hard to imagine them trading him at all in that case, and if they have to let him go to free agency, well, oh well.

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Barring a collapse or maybe even a first round exit, the Tigers are going to find it very difficult to trade Max. If they win the World Series, how do they then trade their best SP and possible Cy Young winner? If they do win it all, I see Max coming back and worst case, leaving as a FA.

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This begs the question of other teams offering Detroit something credible for Scherzer. Just assuming that you can get Scherzer for nothing by waiting for him to become a FA is faulty thinking, IMO.

There is no question Scherzer has value, the thing for me is the place he is most valuable is here in Detroit. Any team that trades for Scherzer knows full well it could be a 1 year rental, so I would be suprised if any team would give up their #1 stud for any rental even if his name is Max Scherzer. Texas likely isn't going to offer Profar, the Dodgers are not going to offer Puig, the Reds not going to part with Hamilton, etc.

Take a look at the top pitchers to switch teams and see if it looks like the team that traded the top starter made out great in terms of prospects....

Here are two examples of off season top pitching trades;

On February 2, 2008, Johan Santana was traded from the Twins to the New York Mets for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey.

On December 19, 2010 Zack Greinke was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers with Yuniesky Betancourt and $2 million for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi.

Before the trade deadline mid-season;

On July 29, 2009 (just before the July 31 trading deadline), the Indians traded Lee—along with outfielder Ben Francisco—to the Philadelphia Phillies, in exchange for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp.

On July 7, 2008, CC Sabathia was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson.

On July 31, 2011, Jiménez was traded to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for Alex White, Joe Gardner, Matt McBride and Drew Pomeranz.

I agree with you that Scherzer has value and there is no harm in seeing what he might bring on the trade market in terms of possible trades. But I just seriously doubt that the Tigers would get a "great" return for Scherzer that would justify losing one of the top starters in baeball when we he could be very well be key to a Tigers return to the World Series again in 2014.

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Long term -Resign Max. Extended Miggy and Jackson. let VMART, Hunter, Infante and Johnny P. walk to pay for it. Smyly starts. Porcello traded for defensive "no-hit" middle infileder (save more $$ ), Promote one middle infielder, Casty to Left and Garcia to Right. Tui "type"/rotate DH.

Short term - trade from minor league catching depth, Ortega/Vilenuava type , Dirks or Porcello for a reliever and make Coke a LOOGY only.

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There is no question Scherzer has value, the thing for me is the place he is most valuable is here in Detroit. Any team that trades for Scherzer knows full well it could be a 1 year rental, so I would be suprised if any team would give up their #1 stud for any rental even if his name is Max Scherzer. Texas likely isn't going to offer Profar, the Dodgers are not going to offer Puig, the Reds not going to part with Hamilton, etc.

Take a look at the top pitchers to switch teams and see if it looks like the team that traded the top starter made out great in terms of prospects....

Here are two examples of off season top pitching trades;

On February 2, 2008, Johan Santana was traded from the Twins to the New York Mets for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey.

On December 19, 2010 Zack Greinke was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers with Yuniesky Betancourt and $2 million for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi.

Before the trade deadline mid-season;

On July 29, 2009 (just before the July 31 trading deadline), the Indians traded Lee—along with outfielder Ben Francisco—to the Philadelphia Phillies, in exchange for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp.

On July 7, 2008, CC Sabathia was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson.

On July 31, 2011, Jiménez was traded to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for Alex White, Joe Gardner, Matt McBride and Drew Pomeranz.

I agree with you that Scherzer has value and there is no harm in seeing what he might bring on the trade market in terms of possible trades. But I just seriously doubt that the Tigers would get a "great" return for Scherzer that would justify losing one of the top starters in baeball when we he could be very well be key to a Tigers return to the World Series again in 2014.

I'm not sure this proves your point. Humber was ranked as the 4th best prospect in baseball. Gomez was 52

Alcides Escobar was ranked 12th.

The highest prospect in the Lee deal was Carrasco at 41, but all the players received were top 100 players

Laporta was 23

White and Pomeranz were top 50

At the time of each trade, the receiving team received top prospects. This illustrates that proven players are more valuable than prospects. You also didn't mention the James Shields for Wil Myers trade.

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A better, more relevant example would be the Greinke trade last summer that sent him to Anaheim. For a little more than two months of Greinke, the Angels sent the Brewers Jean Segura and two pitching prospects. That worked out pretty well for Milwaukee.

And since the trade happened in season, when Greinke moved his talents to Los Angeles, the Angels didn't even receive a comp pick in return.

If the Tigers decide to trade Scherzer in the offseason (especially if he remains a top CY Young candidate), they would have to receive an elite prospect, someone at or near Profar's level, to make it worthwhile.

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Segura alone would've made that a great trade for Milwaukee.

Greinke is a head case.

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Segura was ranked 55th when he was traded. Texas isn't trading the #1 ranked prospect for one year or half a year of Max Scherzer. It's funny in the same thread you can see a proposal of Garcia, Dirks, Smyly, Castellanos for Stanton and Cisek, and see Profar for one year of Scherzer.

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Agree that Segura was not as highly regarded as Profar, though he was hitting well in the minors when traded and had improved his stock.

If someone trades for Scherzer in the offseason they will get him a full year and if they are unable to retain him, they will get a 1st round pick comp. That alone bumps his value over Greinke's. And Greinke wasn't coming off the type of season that Scherzer is currently having.

Also, the Mets received Zack Wheeler (a #6 overall draft choice 2 years prior) for a couple months of Carlos Beltran.

A recurring theme of my examples and the ones above? The team trading the stud was no good. Has a legit World Series contender ever traded their best SP in the offseason?

All that said, I agree that Texas isn't likely to trade Profar for 1 year of Scherzer. My point is that the only way I see the Tigers even consider dealing him, is if they receive an elite, MLB ready prospect/young player who fits a position of need.

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