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POTUS Impeachment Watch

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21 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Assuming the senate doesn't vote to remove which odds are is the case, there is a valid argument that going forward with impeachment just tells future presidents that if you hold the senate, it doesn't matter.   I think you can argue a censure would be much easier to get through and would give the leeway to give republicans a chance to rebuke him, without an impeachment vote.  Politically, heading into 2020, that might be worse to Trump than an impeachment.

If you censure instead of impeach b/c you think the senate won't convict, then you're telling future presidents that if you hold the senate, it doesn't matter.

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15 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Seeking a censure sends the same message as losing the case in Senate.

yep, I shoulda read the thread before responding.

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42 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Assuming the senate doesn't vote to remove which odds are is the case, there is a valid argument that going forward with impeachment just tells future presidents that if you hold the senate, it doesn't matter.   I think you can argue a censure would be much easier to get through and would give the leeway to give republicans a chance to rebuke him, without an impeachment vote.  Politically, heading into 2020, that might be worse to Trump than an impeachment.

Couldn't the Republicans give themselves an opportunity to censure Trump by voting on it in the Senate? 

And why is it everyone else's job to provide Rs an offramp? It's their fault and their choice that they care so much about holding their seats that they can't do the right thing.

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24 minutes ago, pfife said:

yep, I shoulda read the thread before responding.

I'm not even sure they would vote to censure, tbh, because Trump will not allow them to. Which, in effect, should make the exercise pointless even for those who think impeachment is futile.

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I'd like to see the GOP vote for Censure to preempt removal vote.  Except...its weak sauce for what Trump did and still is doing.

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Right.   What does a censure do to stop him from cheating in the 2020 election, which they are doing *right now*?

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4 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

I'd like to see the GOP vote for Censure to preempt removal vote.  Except...its weak sauce for what Trump did and still is doing.

They are going to preempt removal regardless. And voting for censure requires something that, to-date, the party leader will not allow: recognition that he did something wrong.

I agree that it's weak, but the point I'm trying to make is that it may not even pass the Senate anyway. It's pointless and toothless.

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34 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

They are going to preempt removal regardless. And voting for censure requires something that, to-date, the party leader will not allow: recognition that he did something wrong.

I agree that it's weak, but the point I'm trying to make is that it may not even pass the Senate anyway. It's pointless and toothless.

If they do nothing they are condoning his behavior.  If they actually get to a censure vote (which they won't because Trump won't allow it) it means they will all be remembered for condoning his behavior. 

I dream of Trump on the witness stand in the Senate trial.  I wish that McConnell also secretly dreams that too.

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You also remind voters of the importance of the senate and maybe they will get out to vote in off potus election years.  Let them go on record. 
 

Do what’s right and you give the voters the information they need.  
 

A censure is nothing.  It’s like Tony and Carmello taking away Meadow’s Discover card for having a party at her grandmas house. 

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A censure is meaningless. Laughable.

Complete the process, even if the vote to remove fails in the Senate. Get everyone ‘s vote on record, both in the House and in the Senate. 

History demands it.

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I have a suspicion it's going to be a complete **** show in the Senate.   Like, to the point where they send these articles over, they hold a trial not even related to those articles, and just turn it into an attempt to use Horowitz/Durham/Burisma against Biden.    If that happens, I suspect no one will give it any more attention than they would a run-of-the-mill Senate hearing, which is a low amount of attention.

The news I was listening to yesterday was saying Mitch McConnell gets to make the rules, and we can bet he's not going to do anything git, since he never does anything git, and esp since they actually think the Democrats weren't git to them in the House of Reps.   I just wonder though, let's say the Republics try to take it way off course like I mentioned above, does Chief Justice have the power to say "that's not relevant"?   And then above that, would he ever do that even if he can?

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10 hours ago, pfife said:

Wow

 

I already assumed that Russia knew more than the impeachment investigators because I've been assuming the whole plot originated in Russia in the first place.

Low information people aside, is there really any remaining doubt that Trump is merely a tool, witting or not, that's being used to destroy America's traditional standing in the world?

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3 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

 

No chance. His lawyers would sooner physically lock him in the Oval Office under armed guard than allow this.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Couldn't the Republicans give themselves an opportunity to censure Trump by voting on it in the Senate? 

And why is it everyone else's job to provide Rs an offramp? It's their fault and their choice that they care so much about holding their seats that they can't do the right thing.

Republicans' calculus:

  • Do the right thing and lose their seats and their power.
  • Support Trump against the facts and retain their seats and their power.

Hmm, what to do ... what ... tooo ... dooooo ... ?

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25 minutes ago, pfife said:

I have a suspicion it's going to be a complete **** show in the Senate.   Like, to the point where they send these articles over, they hold a trial not even related to those articles, and just turn it into an attempt to use Horowitz/Durham/Burisma against Biden.    If that happens, I suspect no one will give it any more attention than they would a run-of-the-mill Senate hearing, which is a low amount of attention.

The news I was listening to yesterday was saying Mitch McConnell gets to make the rules, and we can bet he's not going to do anything git, since he never does anything git, and esp since they actually think the Democrats weren't git to them in the House of Reps.   I just wonder though, let's say the Republics try to take it way off course like I mentioned above, does Chief Justice have the power to say "that's not relevant"?   And then above that, would he ever do that even if he can?

If they turn the Senate trial into a ****show, it will become a liability for the Republicans. Especially the ones running for reelection in battleground states and districts.

Their challenge is that they need to discharge this in a way that appears sober and thoughtful enough not to alienate people in places like suburban Charlotte or suburban Phoenix prior to the 2020 election. Turning it into a hellscape of conspiracy theories will not do this.

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24 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Their challenge is that they need to discharge this in a way that appears sober and thoughtful enough not to alienate people in places like suburban Charlotte or suburban Phoenix prior to the 2020 election. Turning it into a hellscape of conspiracy theories will not do this.

It will be a significant challenge.  Rs have thrived on upheaval and conspiracy theories during the Trump era, and it's been their most effective toolset for power.  Balancing between conspiracy and evidence-based thoughtfulness is not going to be an easy task.

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29 minutes ago, Euphdude said:

It will be a significant challenge.  Rs have thrived on upheaval and conspiracy theories during the Trump era, and it's been their most effective toolset for power.  Balancing between conspiracy and evidence-based thoughtfulness is not going to be an easy task.

Indeed.... I don't think people appreciate the idea that the Rs could stand to have some liabilities if they run a sham process, especially given that a majority of Americans believe the conduct is impeachable.

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1 minute ago, mtutiger said:

Indeed.... I don't think people appreciate the idea that the Rs could stand to have some liabilities if they run a sham process, especially given that a majority of Americans believe the conduct is impeachable.

A good cop / bad cop system might be one the Rs employ in a Senate trial.  The bad cop group of Senators would take the Alex Jones route for the Red Hats, while the good cop group would attempt to be thoughtful for suburbanites.

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1 minute ago, Euphdude said:

A good cop / bad cop system might be one the Rs employ in a Senate trial.  The bad cop group of Senators would take the Alex Jones route for the Red Hats, while the good cop group would attempt to be thoughtful for suburbanites.

I mean, the Senators don't actually talk during the trial, do they?

They will be judged on the process.... and it'll be judged on whether it's seen as legitimate or not. Descending down the conspiracy rabbit hole puts folks like Tillis, McSally or even Ernst at risk. 

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I'm dying to see what Mittens does. I'm leaning towards not guilty on all articles. I'm wondering if Vegas is going to have gambling odds on individual senators?

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2 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

I'm dying to see what Mittens does. I'm leaning towards not guilty on all articles. I'm wondering if Vegas is going to have gambling odds on individual senators?

 

I wouldn't lay odds on it either way. 

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I would love it if they held a secret vote and it was as many have claimed that they all think he's bad.  Then once that hits the streets everyone does a public vote.

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I say Murkowski and Collins break with Republicans. Murkowski has been the only Republican in the senate with any semblance of a backbone. Collins is in a blue state and up for re-election. Her soliloquy on Kavanagh didn't play well.  Manchin breaks with the Democrats and votes not guilty. He's in West Virginia. What do we expect? Doug Jones votes guilty because he knows he isn't beating Sessions either way.

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Murkowski and Romney, insofar as I can tell, are the two most likely.... Collins would be in the conversation too because she represents a state that (collectively) is unlikely to flip to Trump in 2020.

I wouldn't put odds on it either, though.... they may all vote to acquit for all I know...

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