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2013 Pistons Offseason

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I wouldn't hate adding Rudy Gay in a vaccuum, but I agree with not trading Monroe for him for those same reasons.

Wait, didn't you suggest the Rondo trade Del?

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I wouldn't hate adding Rudy Gay in a vaccuum, but I agree with not trading Monroe for him for those same reasons.

Wait, didn't you suggest the Rondo trade Del?

The other day I did mostly as a joke. I don't think it would be a terrible trade. Just not a direction I would go in.

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My guess is RAPM overvalues defensive rebounding. Here is a list of the top 30 defensive players.

Rank	Name	Defense per 100
1 Dwight Howard 6.3
2 Tim Duncan 6.3
3 Larry Sanders 6.1
4 Kevin Garnett 5.9
5 Marc Gasol 5.6
6 Omer Asik 5.4
7 Joakim Noah 4.9
8 Chris Andersen 4.5
9 Tyson Chandler 4.4
10 Roy Hibbert 4.3
11 Andris Biedrins 4
12 Andrew Bogut 3.9
13 Al-Farouq Aminu 3.6
14 Amir Johnson 3.6
15 Nene Hilario 3.6
16 Jermaine O'Neal 3.5
17 Serge Ibaka 3.5
18 Tiago Splitter 3.5
19 Tony Allen 3.5
20 Emeka Okafor 3.4
21 Greg Stiemsma 3.4
22 Lamar Odom 3.4
23 Paul Millsap 3.4
24 Andre Iguodala 3.3
25 Josh Smith 3.3
26 Kendrick Perkins 3.3
27 Gerald Wallace 3.2
28 DeAndre Jordan 3.1
29 Derrick Favors 3.1
30 Paul George 3.1

25 of them are centers and/or PF's? Most are legit, but Odom, Johnson, Biedrins, O'Neal?

What a useless list.

Any list that doesn't have LeBron at the top is inaccurate.

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What a useless list.

Any list that doesn't have LeBron at the top is inaccurate.

James is a fantastic defender. But a good defensive big man brings more value on defense than James does.

James has the ability to shut down individual players. A defensive big has the ability to shut down an area of the floor for all 5 opposing players at the same time. Not just any area of the floor either. The area where the most points in the league are scored, where the highest FG% is shot, etc.

That is also why 25 (Roughly) of the 30 DPOY winners have been big men.

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The other day I did mostly as a joke. I don't think it would be a terrible trade. Just not a direction I would go in.

Gotcha

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James is a fantastic defender. But a good defensive big man brings more value on defense than James does.

James has the ability to shut down individual players. A defensive big has the ability to shut down an area of the floor for all 5 opposing players at the same time. Not just any area of the floor either. The area where the most points in the league are scored, where the highest FG% is shot, etc.

That is also why 25 (Roughly) of the 30 DPOY winners have been big men.

Big men win DPOY because DPOY is usually given to the player who blocks the most shots, not the best defensive player. LeBron can guard four positions on the floor, and sometimes five. I realize it's great to have Tyson Chandler or Dwight Howard (circa Orlando years) blocking shots and controlling the paint, but having a guy who can guard the other team's best player regardless of who it is is more valuable to me than a shot blocker.

I'll take a guy who can guard Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Paul Pierce, Tony Parker, and can still guard Tim Duncan in a pinch than someone who comes from the weak side to block shots.

As you said, the stat overrates defensive rebounds. As if an uncontested free throw miss is the same as defensive rebound in the paint with three players hanging on you.

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Big men win DPOY because DPOY is usually given to the player who blocks the most shots, not the best defensive player. LeBron can guard four positions on the floor, and sometimes five. I realize it's great to have Tyson Chandler or Dwight Howard (circa Orlando years) blocking shots and controlling the paint, but having a guy who can guard the other team's best player regardless of who it is is more valuable to me than a shot blocker.

I'll take a guy who can guard Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Paul Pierce, Tony Parker, and can still guard Tim Duncan in a pinch than someone who comes from the weak side to block shots.

As you said, the stat overrates defensive rebounds. As if an uncontested free throw miss is the same as defensive rebound in the paint with three players hanging on you.

Once again, A defensive big has the ability to shut down an area of the floor for all 5 opposing players at the same time. Not just any area of the floor either. The area where the most points in the league are scored, where the highest FG% is shot, etc.

Just look at this chart. 40% of all shots in the league that year were taken in the paint. The paint was the only area on the floor where players shot over 40% from the field. Oh, and they topped that by 15%. Not only do the most shots occur in the paint, but players also averaged the most points per shot attempt from the paint. That is why big men win DPOY.

Like I said, James is a fantastic defender. But defense in the NBA starts in the middle. Always has, always will.

HIDPZaK.jpg

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Once again, A defensive big has the ability to shut down an area of the floor for all 5 opposing players at the same time. Not just any area of the floor either. The area where the most points in the league are scored, where the highest FG% is shot, etc.

Just look at this chart. 40% of all shots in the league that year were taken in the paint. The paint was the only area on the floor where players shot over 40% from the field. Oh, and they topped that by 15%. Not only do the most shots occur in the paint, but players also averaged the most points per shot attempt from the paint. That is why big men win DPOY.

Like I said, James is a fantastic defender. But defense in the NBA starts in the middle. Always has, always will.

HIDPZaK.jpg

It's kind of curious to me how many years it has been since the 3 point line was added and how long it took for the game to become completely optimized to its presence. Teams were still playing the mid-range game years after they should have given it up. Thing is, I'm not sure a basketball game is anymore enjoyable to watch now than before the 3 point era. The possibility of threes keep the outcome of games in doubt deeper into the game clock, but the elimination of the value of the mid range game has cut down on offensive variety.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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Don't know if this has been posted yet but FWIW Brad Doolittle of ESPN Insider just did his projections for top 10 Power Forwards next year based on WARP and Josh Smith was number 9 at 9.7. Ahead of guys like Dirk and Carmelo and basically in the ball park of every PF in basketball with the exception of Lebron(who he counts as a PF and projects at a ridiculous 23.2), after Lebron the next highest was Blake at 11.7. Monroe didn't even make the honorable mention so I'm assuming he is counting him as a C, which he is doing tomorrow.

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Thinking out loud about the Monroe extension.

During the season an article was posted with quotes from his agent. He said they would not pursue an extension this year and are fine waiting until next summer.

Since then the Pistons have signed two guys (Jennings and Smith) who will take on average, 10 more shots per36 then the guys they replaced. That could translate to fewer shots for Monroe. Fewer shots could equal less production.

Unlike last year, Drummond will be playing a lot more with Monroe. Drummond is a monster on the boards. His TRB% ranked 4th best in the league last year for guys who played >= 750 minutes. Looking at on/off the court stats, Monroe's TRB% was 16.9% with Drummond off the court and it drops to 15.3% with him on.

While I don't agree with it, I admit you could make an argument for Monroe getting a max deal or near it right now.

It is possible, without it even being his fault, Monroe will put up worse per game averages this year. Simply based on the fact he will get less shots, less rebounding opportunities, etc. I'm not saying he sucks, I'm not saying he cant/wont improve. I'm simply saying the odds of him producing less based on the players around him has gone up compared to what it was in June because of the players the Pistons have signed.

If he goes for 15 and 9 next year. Or 14 and 8. It gets harder to justify a max contract after a year like that.

So based on the Pistons roster moves, I wonder if Monroe's agent is more willing to discuss an extension now instead of waiting until next summer.

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Don't know if this has been posted yet but FWIW Brad Doolittle of ESPN Insider just did his projections for top 10 Power Forwards next year based on WARP and Josh Smith was number 9 at 9.7. Ahead of guys like Dirk and Carmelo and basically in the ball park of every PF in basketball with the exception of Lebron(who he counts as a PF and projects at a ridiculous 23.2), after Lebron the next highest was Blake at 11.7. Monroe didn't even make the honorable mention so I'm assuming he is counting him as a C, which he is doing tomorrow.

Yah, he's going off where you played teh most minutes last year, which I believe was C for Monroe last year considering the Drummond injury and his low minutes level.

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I think they'll stick to their guns about not signing an extension but I also think you're right about his raw numbers going down. I think his efficiency will go up simply because he'll get a lot more open looks now that he's moved from option 1 and 1a to option C on offense. I also think his assists could up simply due to the talent increase around him.

If the max is 13 to 15 million, I actually don't see the Pistons giving him that right now. I see them offering him somewhere in the 11 to 12 range. If his raw numbers go down then maybe that number comes down to the 10 million range.

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Dumars should be getting a feel for Monroe's re-signability throughout the season. If Dumars feels Monroe will not re-sign or will want more than what Dumars feels he's worth, I would hope Monroe would be shopped around.

Dumars is quite loyal to his players though, so in the end I think he'll overpay Monroe.

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Thinking out loud about the Monroe extension.

During the season an article was posted with quotes from his agent. He said they would not pursue an extension this year and are fine waiting until next summer.

Since then the Pistons have signed two guys (Jennings and Smith) who will take on average, 10 more shots per36 then the guys they replaced. That could translate to fewer shots for Monroe. Fewer shots could equal less production.

Unlike last year, Drummond will be playing a lot more with Monroe. Drummond is a monster on the boards. His TRB% ranked 4th best in the league last year for guys who played >= 750 minutes. Looking at on/off the court stats, Monroe's TRB% was 16.9% with Drummond off the court and it drops to 15.3% with him on.

While I don't agree with it, I admit you could make an argument for Monroe getting a max deal or near it right now.

It is possible, without it even being his fault, Monroe will put up worse per game averages this year. Simply based on the fact he will get less shots, less rebounding opportunities, etc. I'm not saying he sucks, I'm not saying he cant/wont improve. I'm simply saying the odds of him producing less based on the players around him has gone up compared to what it was in June because of the players the Pistons have signed.

If he goes for 15 and 9 next year. Or 14 and 8. It gets harder to justify a max contract after a year like that.

So based on the Pistons roster moves, I wonder if Monroe's agent is more willing to discuss an extension now instead of waiting until next summer.

There's definitely some validity to this. I do think things like efficiency will also come into play, but ideally if you want a max contract, you want the counting stats to back it up.

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Thinking out loud about the Monroe extension.

During the season an article was posted with quotes from his agent. He said they would not pursue an extension this year and are fine waiting until next summer.

Since then the Pistons have signed two guys (Jennings and Smith) who will take on average, 10 more shots per36 then the guys they replaced. That could translate to fewer shots for Monroe. Fewer shots could equal less production.

Unlike last year, Drummond will be playing a lot more with Monroe. Drummond is a monster on the boards. His TRB% ranked 4th best in the league last year for guys who played >= 750 minutes. Looking at on/off the court stats, Monroe's TRB% was 16.9% with Drummond off the court and it drops to 15.3% with him on.

While I don't agree with it, I admit you could make an argument for Monroe getting a max deal or near it right now.

It is possible, without it even being his fault, Monroe will put up worse per game averages this year. Simply based on the fact he will get less shots, less rebounding opportunities, etc. I'm not saying he sucks, I'm not saying he cant/wont improve. I'm simply saying the odds of him producing less based on the players around him has gone up compared to what it was in June because of the players the Pistons have signed.

If he goes for 15 and 9 next year. Or 14 and 8. It gets harder to justify a max contract after a year like that.

So based on the Pistons roster moves, I wonder if Monroe's agent is more willing to discuss an extension now instead of waiting until next summer.

so you are saying the Pistons think they can sign him for less after he plays next to Dummond for a season? Interesting. Doesn't that also mean they are betting he won't raise his game significantly - his shooting for example?

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so you are saying the Pistons think they can sign him for less after he plays next to Dummond for a season? Interesting. Doesn't that also mean they are betting he won't raise his game significantly - his shooting for example?

I think Del is saying Drummond and Smith will increase Monroe's efficiency (i.e., better field goal %, more efficient shot selection), but decrease his overall offensive output (assists being the exception).

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I think Del is saying Drummond and Smith will increase Monroe's efficiency (i.e., better field goal %, more efficient shot selection), but decrease his overall offensive output (assists being the exception).

Yeah. I mean in theory Monroe could up his efficiency and actually score less points per game. It would depend on how many shots he loses obviously, but it is possible in theory.

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Here is what a max contract would look like for Monroe with 7.5% yearly raises.

Now, they say a max contract for a guy with 0-6 years service is 25% of the cap. But it really isn't. I have posted this before, but here is the explanation from the Larry Coon cap faq.

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount. For example, even though the salary cap for 2011-12 is $58.044 million and 25% of this amount is $14.511 million, the 0-6 year maximum salary is actually $12,922,194. In addition, for 2012-13 a 5.8% increase in maximum salaries was agreed to, even though the salary cap stayed the same as 2011-12.

He goes on to list the first year number for a max contract is $13,701,250. With 7.5% raises each year here is how it looks:

[table=width: 500, class: grid]

[tr]

[td]Year 1[/td]

[td]Year 2[/td]

[td]Year 3[/td]

[td]Year 4[/td]

[td]Total[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]$13,701,250[/td]

[td]$14,728,844

[/td]

[td]$15,756,438

[/td]

[td]$16,784,031

[/td]

[td]$60,970,563

[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

That would be an average of $15.2M per year.

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Here is what a max contract would look like for Monroe with 7.5% yearly raises.

Now, they say a max contract for a guy with 0-6 years service is 25% of the cap. But it really isn't. I have posted this before, but here is the explanation from the Larry Coon cap faq.

He goes on to list the first year number for a max contract is $13,701,250. With 7.5% raises each year here is how it looks:

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[TR]

[TD]Year 1[/TD]

[TD]Year 2[/TD]

[TD]Year 3[/TD]

[TD]Year 4[/TD]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]$13,701,250[/TD]

[TD]$14,728,844[/TD]

[TD]$15,756,438[/TD]

[TD]$16,784,031[/TD]

[TD]$60,970,563[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

That would be an average of $15.2M per year.

Monroe? The mind boggles.

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For the record. I'm not saying he will get it, just what it would look like.

If he signs with the Pistons he'll definitely get something similar.

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I don't see him getting 15 Mil/year from us or any team unless he blows up to 20 and 10 this year (which isn't likely). Let's not forget that that's more than Smith got. Monroe will get something around 12 mil/year give or take a million.

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