Jump to content

lordstanley

Playoff Watch Thread: Extend The 21-Year Streak

Recommended Posts

Sports Club Stats gives the Wings a 75.3% chance of making the playoffs as of today.

The standings today finally give a normal sense of where the Wings' stand, since:

- the Wings' have played no more than 1 game more and no less than 1 game lfewer than any team in the conference except for bottom-feeders Calgary

- the Wings' home-road schedule imbalance has been corrected a bit with the 3-game trip just finished and will be equalized after the 4-game trip that starts following today's game. The Wings have played 16 home games and 13 road games to date

Going into March 20's Game 30 versus the Wild:

- the Wings are in 7th place in the West

- the Wings are 1 pt behind 5th place St. Louis and 6th place Vancouver, with all 3 teams having played 29 games

- the Kings in 4th place, 3 points ahead and with the same number of games played is not out of reach eiither

- the Wings have smallish 3-point cushions on the 7th-9th place teams, SJ-Phoenix-Columbus, with the Sharks having played 1 fewer game than the Wings but the Coyotes and Columbus having played 1 more game than the Wings

- Dallas, Edmonton, Nashville, and Calgary are only fringe concerns to the Wings at this point; Colorado is really no threat (if the Avs catch the Wings, playoffs will be just a pipedream regardless)

So I see things as:

- Chicago and Anaheim having locked up 2 spots

- Let's give LA a playoff spot even though they're only 3 points ahead

- The NW winner gets a spot but only 1 of Minnesota/Vancouver is guaranteed a playoff spot

- So 4 spots spoken for

- That leaves 6 teams - St. Louis, the Minnesota-Vancouver loser, the Wings, the Sharks, the Coyotes and Columbus - chasing 4 spots

Given that, I like the Wings' chances as of today. But things could get dicier if:

- the Wings don't perform well during this tough 6 pack coming up - home to Minny, 2 on the road to Anaheim, on the road to Phoenix, on the road to SJ, home to Chicago.

- one of the fringe teams currently below 10th makes a surge

After this 6-game stretch the Wings' 13-game schedule is pretty normal the rest of the way, so if they can pick up 7 of 12 points and maintain a 2-3 point lead on 9th place through the Chicago game, they should be in good shape

Edited by lordstanley

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are the Wings going to get anyone in a trade this year? I heard that the Sabres have some guys available.

I40HfH1UiXo#!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Wings are not in a position to be purchasing rental type players. Guys like an Iginla or Mark Streit aren't going to turn this team into a contender and thus they shouldn't be liquidating the future for a few rentals now. If there are going to be moves made then I expect no one over the age of 30 to be acquired and even then, I don't want to trade half the farm for a big name younger player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
AGREED

But the guy on LGW going on and on about DeKeyser's sister needs to shut the hell up. It's a critical time. If I was the buddy, the sister or DeKeyser himself I'd be a little ticked - "LeftWinger" has no sense of discretion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have no idea what you're talking about, and I don't think I want to know.

I bought lower level seats for the Wings v. Ducks game tonight, so stoked!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the best shape playoff-wise the Wings have been all season.

The Blues' loss in regulation tonight means the Wings are alone in 5th, 1 pt up on STL and LAK who both have a game in hand on the Wings - so essentially a 3-way tie for 5th-6th-7th.

The 8th place and 9th place teams are Dallas (4 pts back of Detroit with 1 game in hand) and San Jose (5 pts back of Detroit with 2 games in hand).

Then it's a little bit of cushion before you get down to 10th and 11th - Columbus and Nashville are both 5 pts back of Detroit with equal games played.

Edited by lordstanley

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have no idea what you're talking about, and I don't think I want to know.

Nothing about her virtue or anything like that. Just sharing info about private conversations concerning the process.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the weekend the Wings all but locked up a playoff spot. Now let's go for seeding - home ice would be nice. 15 games to go, 7 at home, 8 on the road.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It would have been nice though if Chicago and Anaheim, both playing at home, had helped out versus LA and San Jose respectively tonight. Or if Edmonton had surprised Nashvhille.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that the U-M game is over, big 3rd periods coming up In Vancouver and Anaheim. The two biggest threats to the Wings - Phoenix and Edmonton - are each trailing 1-0.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trailing 1-0 with a minute to go but with a 6 on 4, the Coyotes score ... into their own empty net. Lose to Vancouver 2-0

Anaheim beats Edmonton 2-1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With regulations & overtime wins (ROWS) being the first tie-breaker, the Wings probably have that won over Phoenix and Edmonton. Wings are at 17, Phoenix and Edmonton have 14. Phoenix and Edmonton both have played 39 games as have the Wings - the Coyotes are 3 back and Edmonton is 4 back. Columbus is also 4 back having played the same 39 games.

However, Dallas might now be considered closest to the Wings - 4 points back but with a game in hand, and 16 regulation wins, and 1 game vs the Wings still to play.

Only other team with a shot is Nashville and it's a slim one. 5 back of the Wings and having played 40 games, one more than the Wings. Plus only 13 ROWS.

So really, the Wings would have to screw up pretty badly to miss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 games with implication tonight:

1. Chicago at Minnesota - I want Chicago to win that and use up Minnesota's game in hand on the Wings. A regulation loss by Minnesota and the Wild would still be just 3 up on Detroit and each would have 9 games to pay. Still catchable. I want to avoid Chicago in the 1st round. I think against any other team the Wings would be underdogs but have a shot - against Chicago the Wings would be big underdogs.

2. LA at Dallas - I'm conceding the Wings can't catch LA and I want them to hold off a threat to the Wings tonight. This is Dallas' game in hand. They're 4 points back, but host the Wings on the last day of the regular season. Biggest game of the night, IMO.

3. San Jose at Columbus - A tough one, I guess I'll play it safe and lean towards Columbus losing. They're 4 points back of the Wings with an equal number of games remaining going into tonight, so they're still within striking distance of Detroit. A part of me wouldn't mind seeing San Jose lose - this is their game in hand on the Wings - and give Detroit a chance to close within 2 of SJ with a regulation win on Thursday

4. St. Louis at Nashville - This isn't a slam dunk but I think I'll cheer for Nashville. With the Preds 5 back and already having played one more game than the Wings going into tonight, I'm going to guess that the Preds won't be the team to overtake Detroit for 8th. If Nashville catches or passes Detroit, I'm betting other teams will as well. Whereas I haven't given up on Detroit passing St. Louis. This is 1 of St. Louis' 2 games in hand on Detroit but they're only 1 pt up.

Edited by lordstanley

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big wins by Dallas and Columbus to tighten things up. Both are now just 2 points behind the Wings - Columbus with 8 games left, Detroit and Dallas with 9 games left.

St. Louis is on a roll with a win that all but buries Nashville but has the Blues pulling away from the Wings.

Minnesota, fortunately, lost to Chicago in regulation.

Wings need to beat San Jose on Thursday because they have the Hawks on the road Friday night.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phoenix plays Edmonton tonight so those two teams are going to be really going at one another. Hopefully no OT in that contest and a clean win that knocks one team further down a peg.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
524469_10152732893990472_964932404_n.jpg

And next year they have $8 million in cap space and 7 players from their current roster as UFA or RFA!

Heatley is going to get bought out for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So where are we at? 7th, up one point right?

8th.

1 point up on 9th Phoenix, but the Wings have a very important game in hand.

2 points up on 10th Dallas, same games played.

2 points up on 11th Columbus, Wings have a game in hand.

Looking up, the Wings are 3 points behind 7th Minnesota, same games played.

Also 3 points behind 6th St. Louis. St. Louis has a game in hand.

4 points behind 5th San Jose. Same games played.

Tonights game is HUGE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pressure's on. As it's an ugly night on out of town scoreboard so far. Columbus wrapping up a 4-1 win over St. Louis. Dallas up 3-1 over Nashville in the 2nd. Phoenix up 1-0 over Calgary early. Wings lose tonight and it becomes a toss-up.

Nashville is dead and Edmonton is all but out of it. So 4 teams for 1 spot. By the end of night it could be Detroit and Phoenix at 44 and Dallas and Columbus at 43, with Dallas having a game in hand on everyone.

Edited by lordstanley

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 games to watch today, all this evening.

- Flames @ Oilers. Least important of the three. This is the Oilers' game in hand on the Wings, but at 6 points back they're on the outer fringe of the race. If the Oilers catch the Wings that means there are other teams that almost surely would have passed Detroit as well. But still, might as well cheer for Calgary

- Blue Jackets @ Wild. I want to keep the Wild within sight, as I think they're vulnerable, but with CBJ just 2 points back and able to tie Detroit (the Wings would have an extra game over CBJ, to be played tomorrow in Nashville) I need to cheer for Minnesota to win in regulation. A 3-pt game would be the worst result

- Sharks @ Stars - Big game of the night. This is the Stars' game in hand. Win tonight and they're even-steven with the Wings (in fact Dallas would be ahead on the tiebreak of ROWs). Go Sharks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...