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sagnam

Would you trade Cabrera for Trout?

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So I searched on the web, and found a list of the players to play a full season age 21 or younger and have an OPS+ of 160 or greater.

Foxx..............173 (age 21)

Matthews.......171 (21)

Hornsby..........169 (21)

Cobb..............169 (21)

Trout.............168 (20)

Cobb..............167 (20)

Crawford.........167 (21)

Ott................165 (20)

Cesar Cedeno..162 (21)

Kaline.............162 (20)

Mantle............162 (20)

A-Rod.............161 (20)

Ted Williams.....161 (21)

Ted Williams.....160 (20)

Cesar Cedeno is the relative turd in the punchbowl. And he still had a solid career. I'd probably not want to deal Cabrera for him, but considering age and salary, it wouldn't be that bad a deal.

The rest, I absolutely would deal Cabrera for.

I guess, for me, the point I am making is not that Trout will become a first ballot HoF caliber player. I am not saying that. I am, however, saying I think it a lot more likely than at least some in this thread suggest. I also think some are not accounting for the fact Miguel will be in his mid-thirties in 5 years, and there is almost certainly going to be some decline by then, and Trout is going to be in his mid-twenties.

[patting self on back]I also am surprised just by guessing I found everyone who accomplished it at age 20. I probably only looked up 10 names to find the 7.[/patting self on back]

Excellent work, Biggs....about a month ago when I was responding to another thread I saw a study online of Trout with the same basic comparison. Didn't get this expansive, though. It proves that Trout has the *demonstrated* HoF talent. Nobody but the greatest of the greats **at age 20** are able to shred major league pitching, steal bases without ever getting caught and play great CF defense, and this kid is built like Adonis.

Trout might regress 10 - 20 points of BA next year because of BABIP. My only concern health-wise would be a guy that young standing up to full ML seasons. Barring a physical break-down, he's on track to do things that only a handful of HoFers have managed....two great ML seasons by the age of 21....simply unheard of!

I love Miggy as much as I've loved any player since the 1984 squad left town, but Trout is a once-in-a-generation phenomenon. He's LeBron James without the baggage. Yeah, I'd trade Miggy for Trout.

Edited by sabretooth

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I'm curious as to why everyone is worried that Trout could fall off a cliff like Nomar, or Haren or any number of guys who get injured and then don't produce, but nobody thinks the same can happen to Miggy who has a history of not being in the best shape and drinking issues?

Not saying he's going to fall off, but the only thing the last 9 years says is that miggy has been durable, it has zero bearing on the next 5 years. Being durable from 21-30 is normal, staying that way after 30 is a stretch.

Piazza

<30 .330-34-109 137gms

>30 .255-23-71 116 gms

Ken Griffey Jr

<30 .296-36-106 average year 140gms

>30 .260-19-57 99 games played

Pujols worst 2 seasons are after age 30

durability in your 20's doesn't mean anything for your 30s.

I'd make this trade, but I'd lose a ton of sleep over it. In the end a plus defender, age 20 with speed is more productive than a below average slow guy who can hit his butt off, even if he is a hall of famer. The GM that made the trade would take a ton of heat when it happened, but it's trades like this that keep you from years of losing when your superstars get old

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My hesitation about Trout is the second half fall off and the fact that his blistering stretch in June/July is overweighted since he is going to finish the season about 80 AB short of a full time player. He had 342 AB 1.012 OPS, but has followed that with 248 AB at only 879 OPS. If he OPSs 879 for the last 19 games, and if he had OPS 879 over the 80 AB he didn't play, then what OPS+ would he finish the season with and where would he rank? Of course he could have OPSs 1.012 over the 80 he didn't play, but statistically we don't know the correct null hypothesis for him until he plays more. If you have to go by probabilities in the void, clearly for any player the odds are higher he is not a hall of famer.

I'm missing something. From July 14 to today, Trout has had 249 AB and has OPSed 0.938.

From July 22 to today, Trout has had 248 plate appearances (and 214 AB) with a 879 OPS. So I think you mean plate appearances rather than AB.

In any event, supposing he were to play 30 more games to get him to 156 games played, and in those 30 games he had an OBP of 0.379 and a SLG of 0.500 to match his July 22 to today's performance, I estimate his total OBP would drop to 0.391 and his SLG would drop to .543, which would cause his OPS to drop to 0.932 and his OPS+ to drop to 163.

Even at an OPS+ of 163 he would have had one of the greatest offensive seasons ever by a 20-year old and wouldn't change anything I claimed.

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If Trout has a 2013 season like his August and September, he'll be at .280/.370/.461 .832 OPS 32HR, 54/58 SB with 137 runs scored, that combined with the defensive aspect, still makes him a top 5 player in baseball even if that kind of huge regression

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If Trout has a 2013 season like his August and September, he'll be at .280/.370/.461 .832 OPS 32HR, 54/58 SB with 137 runs scored, that combined with the defensive aspect, still makes him a top 5 player in baseball even if that kind of huge regression

That OPS would still be 50 pts worse than Cabby's worst full season.

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I don't think I would trade Cabrera for the entire Angels team.

The Angels have a better record than the Tigers, so I think I'd have to make that trade.

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That OPS would still be 50 pts worse than Cabby's worst full season.

But if you add the speed and defense, you'd probably still have somebody that was as good as Cabrera overall or close to it.

Edited by tiger337

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fortunately for Trout, OPS doesn't take defense or baserunning into effect.

I think that .832 is a worst case for Trout for the next 5-10 years, coupled with strong defense and baserunning, you have a very very valuable player. Jackson is having a great year and his OPS is only .30 points above that.

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If Trout has a 2013 season like his August and September, he'll be at .280/.370/.461 .832 OPS 32HR, 54/58 SB with 137 runs scored, that combined with the defensive aspect, still makes him a top 5 player in baseball even if that kind of huge regression

I would be willing to bet that Trout averages at least a .900 OPS in any given two-year period for the next 10 years, barring injury.

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dub dub Sagnam style... dub dub Sagnam style..

Forever will be uttered in my brain when Sangnam makes a post.

ayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy sexy lady

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I think people are overrating the unknown aspect for Trout. I don't think Justin Upton or anyone I have seen in years is a reasonable comparison. He doesn't have to match this season to be a phenomenal player. I'd trade Cabrera for him in a heartbeat. Is he a guarantee, absolutely not. Is Cabrera though? His contract runs out sooner, he's had off field issues....

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Follow up question. What active position players would you trade Cabrera 1 for 1?

This should help put into context some of the answers. Is Trout in a league of his own or are you just looking to dump Cabrera?

Edited by sagnam

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If we know Trout is going to continue on the level he's performed this year then it's a no-brainer.

But I wouldn't rip on someone who decided to just keep what they have now in fear that maybe Trout doesn't continue on the pace he's trying to establish this year. Cabrera has done it for years.

For me, I'd do the trade. Some of those issues I mentioned above certainly hit my mind, but when I take into account Cabrera's build, that he's now 29 and he's making a crazy salary, I'd do it. Plus, I'm sorry, but I certainly would take into account Cabrera's past drinking problems. If there's no known history of such problems with Trout, it really makes it an easy decision for me.

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Follow up question. What active position players would you trade Cabrera 1 for 1?

This should help put into context some of the answers. Is Trout in a league of his own or are you just looking to dump Cabrera?

Trout is really good and really young and really cheap. I would go so far as to say there isn't a single player I would trade him for 1 for 1 if I were the GM of the Angels.

I would say Trout is the most valuable player in terms of trade value in baseball right now.

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Trout is really good and really young and really cheap. I would go so far as to say there isn't a single player I would trade him for 1 for 1 if I were the GM of the Angels.

I would say Trout is the most valuable player in terms of trade value in baseball right now.

What about Cabrera?

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What about Cabrera?

Depends on the team's needs and salary structure moving forward.

He is a 29 year old player who makes $20M and will likely command a $200M 8 year deal at minimum in 3 years.

I would guess ages 30-35 he will average a 150 OPS+ or something and be a below average defensive player. There aren't many players that can deliver that value overall, but you are dropping 20-25 million to get it, which relatively few teams can afford. I'd probably trade him one for one for a guy who I thought would OPS+ 125, play good defense at a position I need and was salary controlled.

After age 35 I don't know what to expect out of Miguel, to be honest. I could see him being good into his late 30's or completely falling apart due to weight / drinking.

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Follow up question. What active position players would you trade Cabrera 1 for 1?

This should help put into context some of the answers. Is Trout in a league of his own or are you just looking to dump Cabrera?

Trout is the exception. There really is no other position player I'd trade Cabrera for.

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To make it more interesting...Would anyone trade Cabrera for Bryce Harper straight up?

I probably would. But I am worried about the Tigers ability to retain Miguel in 3 years.

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I wouldn't trade him for Bryce Harper. Trout is already at Cabrera's level at an impossible age to do that. Harper might reach Cabrera's level someday, he's certainly a great talent, but it's potential at this point....I would go with Cabrera, even though I know that financially he's very expensive and performance-wise he's heading for the down-side slope in the next 5 years. But it's a down-slope from 35,000 feet, that's far enough up there where some regression is not a problem.

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I mentioned it before, but if I knew I was getting Jim Edmond's age 25-35 OPS+ of 141 in CF, I would trade Miguel's performance age 30-40 for that.

Edited by Mr. Bigglesworth

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