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Would you trade Cabrera for Trout?

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Never mind Jim's disregard for sabermetrics. Would you trade them 1 for 1?

"Well, I'm gonna answer that this way," Leyland said. "I will not use a player's name, but according to the Sabermetrics, there's a player that is better than Miguel Cabrera. When the guy that gave me the Sabermetrics told me that, I said, 'Well then should we trade Miguel Cabrera for the player you're talking about,' and he said, 'Oh no, you can't do that.'

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120919SPORTS0104/209190477/1361/Tigers--Justin-Verlander-blasts-MVP-voters-who-aren-t-ready-to-vote-for-Miguel-Cabrera

I'm not sure that's such an easy choice. Age is a huge factor, but right now Cabrera is the sure thing. Who knows what Trout will be next year.

What do you guys think?

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Would I trade Cabrera for Trout straight up right now? Yup.

I think that what Jim was trying to really say is if you could have either of them for just one year (next year, disregarding salary), which would you take? In that scenario, I would take Miggy.

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His level of skill at age 20 and his contract probably swing this in Trout's favor, but it's hard to give up a middle of the order presence like Cabrera. I'd probably make the trade, but you're right, it's not an easy choice at all. That said, I might be biased in Cabrera's favor and I suspect the majority of baseball people would say it's a "no brainer" especially factoring in age and contract. If it's who would you rather have for one year with no consideration to contract, I'd definitely go with Cabrera.

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Yeah, that's what worries me. It's hard to ever trade one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game. The age thing gives Trout a ton of value, though. I would say no just because of the unknowns. You know Cabrera is going to produce and play every day. It'd be tough.

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I would do it because of his age and he does more things than Cabrera. There is risk involved because Trout might not be the elite hitter Cabrera is, but I think it's a small risk with a potentially big reward. I'm pretty sure he is going to be one of the best players in the game for a long time and there is a good chance he'll be better than Cabrera on a regular basis.

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I'd prefer to see Trout go another season first, but if we're talking about a 1 for 1 trade for a single season, NO. If we're talking about trading them straight up including salaries and team control, absolutely. Austin Jackson can play left field, Castellanos can go back to third. Our team defense would improve greatly, our offense would be down a little bit, and our team's $ obligations would drop so significantly that we could go get someone like Greinke in the off season.

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not taking anything away from Trout (if he's the MVP so be it), but Miggy has performed for 9 YEARS, in 2 leagues, at 3 positions.

Fred Lynn, the last MVP ROY winner, had only one season better than his rookie season, and about 6 more at that high level. Maybe Trout gets better; maybe he levels off; maybe he stays this awesome; maybe he gets minor injuries; or a major one.

Alex Aliva looked like the second coming of Mike Piazza in 2011. But injuries take a toll.

Nick Markakis looked like he was inching toward stardom, but he has not come close to the production of his first 3 years, over the last four.

This is why I think Cabrera is so very much better than always injured Josh Hamilton. He gets it done every year.

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Another way to look at this is the Tigers only have Miguel 3 more years. He can walk in 3 years, and to keep him beyond that likely will require keeping him until he is 40.

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not taking anything away from Trout (if he's the MVP so be it), but Miggy has performed for 9 YEARS, in 2 leagues, at 3 positions.

Fred Lynn, the last MVP ROY winner, had only one season better than his rookie season, and about 6 more at that high level. Maybe Trout gets better; maybe he levels off; maybe he stays this awesome; maybe he gets minor injuries; or a major one.

Alex Aliva looked like the second coming of Mike Piazza in 2011. But injuries take a toll.

Nick Markakis looked like he was inching toward stardom, but he has not come close to the production of his first 3 years, over the last four.

This is why I think Cabrera is so very much better than always injured Josh Hamilton. He gets it done every year.

None of those players have anything to do with Trout, though.

WRT the Fred Lynn comment that he only had one more better season and six others as good - how many more seasons do you think Miguel will have better or as good as this season? He will be 30 next year.

Also, Ichiro was the last ROY & MVP winner.

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Building off of Fred Lynn...

...If I knew I was going to get Fred Lynn's entire career post rookie season with the first 5 years cost controlled in exchange for the next three years of Cabrera's career and the lost ability to re-sign him when he becomes a FA, I think I might do that given salary and the fact the Tigers are OF poor in the farm system.

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None of those players have anything to do with Trout, though.

WRT the Fred Lynn comment that he only had one more better season and six others as good - how many more seasons do you think Miguel will have better or as good as this season? He will be 30 next year.

Also, Ichiro was the last ROY & MVP winner.

Yes, they do.

The point is, is that a lot of young players look great (in Trout's case really, really great) and then a few seasons later not so much. Justin Upton has gone from being compared to Willie Mays to being compared to BJ Upton. I think he's no longer a first ballot hall of famer.

If I am risk adverse I am more comfortable projecting Cabrera to perform at the same level offensively for the next 5 years, then I am projecting Trout to keep doing what he is doing for the next 5.

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Yes.

But then five years ago I, and everyone else on this board, would have traded Verlander for Lincecum, Santana, Haren, etc, etc, etc. It's a crapshoot. But I think Trout ages 21-30 is going to be better than Cabrera ages 30-39.

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not taking anything away from Trout (if he's the MVP so be it), but Miggy has performed for 9 YEARS, in 2 leagues, at 3 positions.

Fred Lynn, the last MVP ROY winner, had only one season better than his rookie season, and about 6 more at that high level. Maybe Trout gets better; maybe he levels off; maybe he stays this awesome; maybe he gets minor injuries; or a major one.

Alex Aliva looked like the second coming of Mike Piazza in 2011. But injuries take a toll.

Nick Markakis looked like he was inching toward stardom, but he has not come close to the production of his first 3 years, over the last four.

This is why I think Cabrera is so very much better than always injured Josh Hamilton. He gets it done every year.

Yeah, this. What is more likely? Trout turning into Ted Williams with an amazing career or Trout turning into a younger version of Josh Hamilton with no off field (as of yet) problems?

Cabby is the best hitter in the game and has been a top 5 hitter in the game since his debut. To trade that for ONE really good year from a 20 year old? Noway.

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Yes, they do.

The point is, is that a lot of young players look great (in Trout's case really, really great) and then a few seasons later not so much. Justin Upton has gone from being compared to Willie Mays to being compared to BJ Upton. I think he's no longer a first ballot hall of famer.

Lynn is a fair comparison. There was no reason to expect that either Markakis or Avila was going to be an elite player the way Trout looks like he can be. Upton would be a good comparison except that there were always questions about the make-up of the Uptons. From what I gather, Trout has an outstanding attitude and work ethic. I think the only thing that could hold him back is injuries, but Cabrera could get inured as easily as Trout.

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This thread needs to be resurrected in five years. NO WAY do you trade a future HoFer with several big seasons ahead of him for an unknown. Cabs is just entering his prime. Trout has been amazing this year but one season is way to small of a sample size. Decent chance Trout can be a big star but way too early too bank on it.

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This thread needs to be resurrected in five years. NO WAY do you trade a future HoFer with several big seasons ahead of him for an unknown. Cabs is just entering his prime. Trout has been amazing this year but one season is way to small of a sample size. Decent chance Trout can be a big star but way too early too bank on it.

Yes it does need to be ressurected. I am going to put a reminder on my outlook calendar for 3 years from now and I will resurrect the thread...if I am still around that is.

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Lynn is a fair comparison. There was no reason to expect that either Markakis or Avila was going to be an elite player the way Trout looks like he can be. Upton would be a good comparison except that there were always questions about the make-up of the Uptons. From what I gather, Trout has an outstanding attitude and work ethic. I think the only thing that could hold him back is injuries, but Cabrera could get inured as easily as Trout.

I guess my point is that Cabrera already HAS performed and HAS stayed healthy for 9 seasons; Trout COULD do the same. One is a projection based on 9 years of data; the other is projection based on a one year of data.

Another name to throw out: Nomar Garciaparra.

How many times is he going hit .400?

became

How does a guy go from superstart to unwanted in such a short window?

Health and consistency are undervalued, IMO.

Edited by RatkoVarda

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Even if this turns out to be Trout's career year, he can still have a better career than Cabrera. There is some risk that he'll turn into a disappointment, but with all the things he can do and what he already did at age 20, I think the risk is smaller than people are making it out to be.

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Would I trade Cabrera for Trout straight up right now? Yup.

I think that what Jim was trying to really say is if you could have either of them for just one year (next year, disregarding salary), which would you take? In that scenario, I would take Miggy.

My thoughts exactly. I think Jim was saying right now disregarding salary.

Edited to add: If salary was equal and we are only talking about the next 3 years, I don't make the trade. With age and salary, I'd probably do it.

Edited by 4hzglory

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I guess my point is that Cabrera already HAS performed and HAS stayed healthy for 9 seasons; Trout COULD do the same. One is a projection based on 9 years of data; the other is projection based on a one year of data.

It's one MLB season, but there is also his minor league numbers and awesome tools. Coming into the season, he flew under the radar just a little because everyone one was talking about Harper, but it's not a big surprise that Trout is so good. The surprise is that he did it so soon.

Of course there is risk he turns into Sizemore or something, but there is also risk that Cabrera doesn't age well and starts to fade sooner than expected. I think Trout is a little bigger risk, but also a bigger potential reward.

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I think what Garciaparra did in years 2 through 6 is comparable to what I expect from Cabrera the next five years.

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