Jump to content

thefunk

Tigers Will win the Division

Recommended Posts

I mostly agree. There is a lot of baseball to play and the Tigers haven't played nearly their best baseball. I'm not happy with where we are however and my biggest worry is that Percello and Scherzer are considerably overrated at this point and we may need for one of them to work out and find another starter somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My response to this is, even if it happens, so what? After last year and after the Fielder acquisition, the division was supposed to be a given. There was presumably a higher level we were working toward. The fact is, this team has regressed...if they weren't good enough to beat Texas last year, they sure as hell won't do it this year. I see this team as a fun team to watch from time to time if the bats happen to all catch fire at once...but they aren't winning anything meaningful. Kind of how I feel about the redwings roster right now.

If they are good enough to win the division, then they are good enough to beat Texas or anybody else in a short series. It's been proven time and time again than any team can win the World Series once they get to the post-season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If they are good enough to win the division, then they are good enough to beat Texas or anybody else in a short series. It's been proven time and time again than any team can win the World Series once they get to the post-season.

The best team... nevermind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't think they would win the division until I saw Dave Cameron said they wouldn't.

Now I think they'll win going away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Leyland always seems tense and tight to me and I think the team plays the same. But I do think we will win the division but it will not be easy unless DD makes another "Fister" type trade to turn a big negative into a big positive.

Like maybe a ML caliber 2nd baseman? Hasn't that been our biggest need for 2 1/2 years now?

I still think we have a great shot at the division. If this team peaks at the right time, we could be a force.

But it isn't always the team that signs the best players that wins. Remember all the Angel teams when Autry owned them? They signed all the biggest FA players and never won. Of course, the Tigers DO have some young, homegrown players too. I was just thinking the other day, we had 3 players in the line-up who were all in the minor leagues last year. Dirks, Worth, and Berry. Of course, 2 of them still belong down there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My faith lies in that the rest of the teams in our division aren’t that good and we are playing really poor. Also, I’d like to see how this team does when it starts hitting before I write them off. If the bats wake up and they continue to lose well so be it. But we haven’t really seen this team get in a groove at the plate. If they start hitting I have to believe the wins will start piling up like the losses are now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They've given up 10 runs more than they have allowed. That's all. Considering we've been blown out several more times than we have won a blowout, I think that is a positive. It means (to me), we are losing a lot of close games.

Considering the Injuns are a sitting at 10-2 in 1-run games, and the Tigers are 7-10, that bodes well for a shift.

Also, the Tigers are rocking OPS+ of 20 (Raburn) and 82s for Young and Boesch. Going forward, that will not continue. Whether those players return to their career norms and/or there will be a move to bring those spots up to league average.

(In the interest of total fairness, Dirks and Jackson probably won't carry a 163 and 148 either, but I would not be shcoked if both Miggy and Prince make up the difference).

Essentially, the Tigers have played about as bad as they can and they've been unlucky to boot. I don't see them winning 100 games (which I thought they had a shot at), but should settle nicely into the 93 win-range and win the division by 5+ games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I didn't think they would win the division until I saw Dave Cameron said they wouldn't.

Now I think they'll win going away.

I like where your head is at.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If they are good enough to win the division, then they are good enough to beat Texas or anybody else in a short series. It's been proven time and time again than any team can win the World Series once they get to the post-season.

It amazes me that people still don't get this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They've given up 10 runs more than they have allowed. That's all. Considering we've been blown out several more times than we have won a blowout, I think that is a positive. It means (to me), we are losing a lot of close games.

Considering the Injuns are a sitting at 10-2 in 1-run games, and the Tigers are 7-10, that bodes well for a shift.

Also, the Tigers are rocking OPS+ of 20 (Raburn) and 82s for Young and Boesch. Going forward, that will not continue. Whether those players return to their career norms and/or there will be a move to bring those spots up to league average.

(In the interest of total fairness, Dirks and Jackson probably won't carry a 163 and 148 either, but I would not be shcoked if both Miggy and Prince make up the difference).

Essentially, the Tigers have played about as bad as they can and they've been unlucky to boot. I don't see them winning 100 games (which I thought they had a shot at), but should settle nicely into the 93 win-range and win the division by 5+ games.

I would be willing to bet that the Tigers have given up exactly as many runs as they have allowed.:classic:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It amazes me that people still don't get this.

Especially because we've been that team. Recently. '06. Limped into the playoffs, got hot, and became the favorite!

And have been victimized by a team bringing it to reality.

And seen that same team do that again just last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Shocker, a negative piece about the Tigers written by Dave Cameron: Cleveland Indians: AL Central Favorites | FanGraphs Baseball

It's amazing to me that the 'add up the WARs' hive mind sabermetric guy would write this. I guess xFIP, wOBA, WAR, etc are suddenly unimportant when he can slam a team that just fleeced the great Jack Z in a trade.

Well I typed that before I read the article, it wasn't nearly as negative as I'd expected. I'm not sure what about Cleveland makes him automatically assume they won't play sub .500 the rest of the season though. I suppose he considers Baltimore the AL East favorite as well.

edit: As crappy as the Tigers may be playing right now, they seem like a 'playoff' team to me. You don't have to start Rick Porcello in the playoffs, theoretically (although you never know with Leyland) you also shorten the bullpen and aren't using the junk relievers, likewise Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago probably aren't starting much. I would think a short series would favor the Tigers as much as any team. Verlander pitching regularly alone gives them a shot vs anyone. Making the playoffs is the issue right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's amazing to me that the 'add up the WARs' hive mind sabermetric guy would write this. I guess xFIP, wOBA, WAR, etc are suddenly unimportant when he can slam a team that just fleeced the great Jack Z in a trade.

Well I typed that before I read the article, it wasn't nearly as negative as I'd expected. I'm not sure what about Cleveland makes him automatically assume they won't play sub .500 the rest of the season though. I suppose he considers Baltimore the AL East favorite as well.

edit: As crappy as the Tigers may be playing right now, they seem like a 'playoff' team to me. You don't have to start Rick Porcello in the playoffs, theoretically (although you never know with Leyland) you also shorten the bullpen and aren't using the junk relievers, likewise Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago probably aren't starting much. I would think a short series would favor the Tigers as much as any team. Verlander pitching regularly alone gives them a shot vs anyone. Making the playoffs is the issue right now.

Cleveland is throwing Derek Lowe (2.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9), Jeanmar Gomez, and Zach McCallister out there 3/5 days. I'll take my chances.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Cleveland is throwing Derek Lowe (2.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9), Jeanmar Gomez, and Zach McCallister out there 3/5 days. I'll take my chances.

Don't forget, Masterson and Jiminez are also bad!

They do get Tomlin back pretty shortly though, so I guess 1/5th of their rotation will look good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Cameron article is fair. It is based strictly on zips projections and takes into account the 6 game difference. He doesn't say the Indians are better. But six games is a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Cameron article is fair. It is based strictly on zips projections and takes into account the 6 game difference. He doesn't say the Indians are better. But six games is a lot.

Well yes, and the ZIPs projections say the Tigers will win the division. He then writes an article saying the opposite. So why did he mention them at all?

The way I see it, the Indians have one good starter, one really good reliever, and a mediocre lineup. I don't see any reason to expect the Tigers to need to win 90+ games to win the Division. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Chicago was a bigger threat by July.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The zips projections were run prior to the 3 game sweep. After getting swept, the tigers are no longer the favorite. He mentions that explicitly in the article.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that the Indians pitching is terrible, but their offense is pretty decent especially given their on base skills. And they have a 6 game lead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Indians lineup's OBP lives in 5 players. Travis Hafner who hasn't stayed healthy in 6 years and is playing with a bad knee right now. Jack Hannahan who is Jack Hannahan and also is out with a bad back right now. Asdrubal Cabrera who is 50 points over his career OBP, and then Santana and Choo who are actually good. They also have 0 power. I would expect the offense and pitching to both get significantly worse sooner rather than later.

I really don't see a 6 game lead being anything at this point, even if the Indians were actually a good team, and since they're really a terrible team I'm not concerned about them in the least.

Either the Tigers will remember how to win and win the division easily, or they'll finish sub .500 and it won't matter who's ahead of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They could also play 10 games above .500 for the return of the season, and the Indians could play. 500, and the tigers will lose the division.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is just warming up nicely outside, so the Tigers should begin to hit.

But, you can't get all of those walks from a pitcher like Jiminez too many more times. If we start to hit over the next 2 weeks, we will be fine. If we are still only putting up 2 to 3 runs per game between now and June 15, I think a dial down to say 83 games as an expected win total would be correct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I meant to say:

"But, you can't get all of those walks from a pitcher like Jiminez too many more times, and do nothing with it."

All of the sudden, I could not edit my post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      96,709
    • Total Posts
      2,929,188
  • Who's Online (See full list)

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
×
×
  • Create New...