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With the 23rd Pick of the first round the Detroit Lions select T Riley Reiff

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...But we'll see how good Mayhew really is when we see how the picks in rounds 3 and later turn out from last year and this year. If some of these guys don't turn out to be average NFL starters or better, he's not doing what the great GMs do. In his first three drafts he's only drafted one guy after round 2 who arguably fits this description -- Levy. It's a small sample, and players have been injured, and they've traded a lot of those picks -- but that's not a good record. Especially with two guys soaking up so much payroll (and Suh to follow), the Lions have to get a lot more out of those rounds if they're going to have enough talent to compete.

I think Mayhew's use of later round picks has been pretty good so far, and still needs a few years before they can be fully analyzed. Also, I count trading picks for useful players as smart use of late round picks. So far, he has:

Traded a 5th rounder for a starting LG: Rob Sims

Traded a 6th rounder for a rotational DE with upside: Lawrence Jackson

Traded a 5th rounder for a starting DT: Corey Williams

Traded a 6th & 7th for a starting CB: Chris Houston

(And all the above players are GOOD! Not Pro-Bowlers, but definitely above average players)

Traded a 7th rounder (Dan Gronkowski) for a rotational CB (w-upside?): Alphonso Smith

Late rounders still on our team, with upside (I'm counting only picks 4th round or higher): Jason Fox, Sammie Lee Hill, Willie Young, Doug Hogue?, Johnny Culbreath? (we don't know on those last two yet...).

So far... I don't see Mayhew's use of late round picks as a detriment... at all.

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I think Mayhew's use of later round picks has been pretty good so far, and still needs a few years before they can be fully analyzed. Also, I count trading picks for useful players as smart use of late round picks. So far, he has:

Traded a 5th rounder for a starting LG: Rob Sims

Traded a 6th rounder for a rotational DE with upside: Lawrence Jackson

Traded a 5th rounder for a starting DT: Corey Williams

Traded a 6th & 7th for a starting CB: Chris Houston

(And all the above players are GOOD! Not Pro-Bowlers, but definitely above average players)

Traded a 7th rounder (Dan Gronkowski) for a rotational CB (w-upside?): Alphonso Smith

Late rounders still on our team, with upside (I'm counting only picks 4th round or higher): Jason Fox, Sammie Lee Hill, Willie Young, Doug Hogue?, Johnny Culbreath? (we don't know on those last two yet...).

So far... I don't see Mayhew's use of late round picks as a detriment... at all.

First, I've never said that I judge Mayhew's use of late round picks as deficient. I fully grant that his trade record using late picks is very good. And I think the sample size is a bit too small to judge his ability to draft in late rounds.

However, I don't think that the trade record can be lumped in with the drafting record. These are two very different kinds of player evaluations. And while you can improve a very bad team by trading picks for guys with obvious talent, but who don't fit their teams or who haven't been given enough of a chance, like Jackson, Williams, Sims, Houston, and Smth, you really can't go from having a good talent base to having a very good one by relying heavily on this technique. Further, while the sample size is small re: Mayhew's ability to do well with late round draftees, so far the results are mediocre at best. I'll give this aspect of his role one or two more drafts -- and thus more years for all of the players already taken to mature -- before reaching a conclusion.

My point was that this is the one area where Mayhew has not distinguished himself. And that since so much cap room will be used up with elite players on this team, he'll have to do well here for the Lions to get to the next level. They're not likely to get there if in two years the best players drafted by Mayhew over five years in rounds 3+ are Levy, Hill, Spievey and two more at their average level.

Put another way, having top picks like Stafford, Calvin and Suh work out great is nice but not enough. It's also not that hard. Nor is it enough to deal late picks for other team's talented misfits. That's also nice but not that hard, and it won't get you to the next level.

Mayhew has done both well, and that's to his credit. He's done vastly better than his predecessor. But very good GMs also do the hardest thing, which is to get great value out of picks beyond rounds one and two. We'll see about that in the next few years.

I like Mayhew. I was positive on his hiring. You may recall that many were not. But those who label Mayhew as an excellent GM based on his record of talent acquisition to date are much more positive than me. He's clearly pretty good. But he's got more to prove in my view if the standard for excellence is creating a talent base that can consistently be a seriously competitive team.

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You have to put the Packers ahead of us as far as late round draft picks, but that's not a criticism of Mayhew. He's been a top 5 drafter in the NFL since taking the job with ease. He hits on his picks at a very high rate. IF the Patriots had his hit rate in that time span, they' have 2 more SBs.

The thing with the PAckers is, they've had longer to do it. They have a pretty stacked roster and they develop guys over time. We have been looking for our high end talent and guys that could contribute now. We can't keep developmental guys on the roster yet(now we can, but before), and we were in a position where we were better off trading our late picks for veterans. Guys like Nelson and Jones at WR and some of those OL and DBs, they got to sit for a few years and learn the system, go through a few years of NFL level strength training and practices etc. Going forward, we need to develop more guys like that internally, but we simply weren't there yet.

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You have to put the Packers ahead of us as far as late round draft picks, but that's not a criticism of Mayhew. He's been a top 5 drafter in the NFL since taking the job with ease. He hits on his picks at a very high rate. IF the Patriots had his hit rate in that time span, they' have 2 more SBs.

I wonder if there are rankings of GMs done by credible people. I'm curious where Mayhew would rate. If the ranking is based on drafting, he's about average in my book.

Stafford, Calvin, and Suh were big hits. But they were also choices that would have been made by somewhere between 90 and 100% of all GMs if they were in Mayhews chair. They mean little in my evaluation of Mayhew's drafting. If you subtract them, I don't think it's obvious that the Lions have gotten more than average value from their remaining picks in Mayhew's drafts. That's a huge uptick over Millen. But it's not top 5.

I have to assume rating Mayhew over Belichek and the NE GM is a joke. Please consider that until this year the Lions have been drafting near the top of each round, and the Patriots near the bottom.

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I wonder if there are rankings of GMs done by credible people. I'm curious where Mayhew would rate. If the ranking is based on drafting, he's about average in my book.

Stafford, Calvin, and Suh were big hits. But they were also choices that would have been made by somewhere between 90 and 100% of all GMs if they were in Mayhews chair. They mean little in my evaluation of Mayhew's drafting. If you subtract them, I don't think it's obvious that the Lions have gotten more than average value from their remaining picks in Mayhew's drafts. That's a huge uptick over Millen. But it's not top 5.

I have to assume rating Mayhew over Belichek and the NE GM is a joke. Please consider that until this year the Lions have been drafting near the top of each round, and the Patriots near the bottom.

As big of a joke as your knowledge base. Mayhew didn't draft Calvin. Please consider the facts, man.

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As big of a joke as your knowledge base. Mayhew didn't draft Calvin. Please consider the facts, man.

My bad on that one. My point stands. No one gets credit (or demerits) for top picks that just about everyone would have made.

Considering facts, feel free to present more than one that might support your view.

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My bad on that one. My point stands. No one gets credit (or demerits) for top picks that just about everyone would have made.

Considering facts, feel free to present more than one that might support your view.

The picks were still made. Stafford wasn't the only player considered when he came out. Suh wasn't the only DT considered. I remember the Lions finally made up their minds last minute on Calvin.

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I hope this guy turns out to be an absolute beast. Otherwise, with his shortish arms, weve drafted a RT, a WR/KR coming off injury who is behind three guys and a nickle corner. I trust Mayhew to an extent, and hes forgotten more about football than Ill ever know, but this draft is ugly looking at it from my very limited point of view. Im sure the dopes who grade drafts the day after will hammer us for our weak draft.

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Im sure the dopes who grade drafts the day after will hammer us for our weak draft.

Which doesn't mean a thing.

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